paulwall29

Chris Godwin 2020 Outlook

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18 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

While I don't think Brady will match Winston's numbers from last year, people are acting like he's going to run the same offense NE did last year with Edelman, White, and Dorsett as his top guys.

This offense should still be really productive with elite receiving weapons and an aggressive HC.  I doubt Brady went to TB so he could run the same ball control offense - seems more likely that he wanted to play somewhere with a more aggressive and pass friendly scheme.

Also think you're underestimating how good of a player Evans is.  He's going to get a lot of targets in what should be a productive offense.


I’m not underestimating Evans in any way. I’m saying that if I had to choose between he and Godwin, I’d take Godwin because Brady loves his slot WRs. 

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3 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

I think people are making assumptions about Brady based on his last few years in NE with awful weapons around him.

Is his arm as strong as strong as Winston's? No, but that doesn't mean he's not going to throw it down the field.  If you were Brady with Julian Edelman in the slot and Phillip Dorsett on the outside where would you go with the ball? 


I think you’re making an assumption that people are making assumptions. For basically his whole career, Brady has fed his slots, TEs, and RBs. It’s not assuming anything about Brady based on the last few years, it’s looking at how he’s attacked the field during his career. And now that he’s 43 with a diminishing arm, it only makes sense that he will continue this in Tampa.

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Posted (edited)

Brady will go deep more often than he did in NE the past few seasons. With that being said there's no reason you should take Evans over Godwin if you want a piece of the Tampa passing game. Brady isn't all of a sudden going to sling it every play and stop taking easy 1st downs from his slot WR.

Edited by sSektor
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6 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

I think people are making assumptions about Brady based on his last few years in NE with awful weapons around him.

It’s been 13 years since his top WR lined up out wide, but year 14 it’s all going to change.

Evans is really good, but Godwin is also really good and fits better with Brady and Arians. 

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9 hours ago, Flyman75 said:


I’m not underestimating Evans in any way. I’m saying that if I had to choose between he and Godwin, I’d take Godwin because Brady loves his slot WRs. 

 

Godwin all day ... such a beast & a joy to watch play football. The man is a YACK monster too, you pair+ that with Brady's short precision game = and it's good times. 

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So this 12 package system is magically going to have a slot? I wouldn't be shocked to see them in 13 package either. If Godwin goes to the slot, that means they're down big which will put the 11 and 20 packages out. Godwin is going to be the middle of the pack. Wouldn't be shocked to see that 6'5 monster in Evans in the slot. The Bucs are carrying some mad hype and it is going to crash and burn as the browns hype train. buyers beware.

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3 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

So this 12 package system is magically going to have a slot? I wouldn't be shocked to see them in 13 package either. If Godwin goes to the slot, that means they're down big which will put the 11 and 20 packages out. Godwin is going to be the middle of the pack. Wouldn't be shocked to see that 6'5 monster in Evans in the slot. The Bucs are carrying some mad hype and it is going to crash and burn as the browns hype train. buyers beware.

 

Godwin's 1st and 2nd half of season splits are pretty striking as well. He's being priced with an elite target share and elite passing game.

The Bucs defense is good...fortunately they play Saints and Falcons 2x which should keep their offense have the foot on the gas. Godwin is elite on the perimeter as well, but we'd all prefer him to be the slot. It's just tough to take two WR's on the Bucs who are priced at their pinnacle.

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

So this 12 package system is magically going to have a slot? I wouldn't be shocked to see them in 13 package either. If Godwin goes to the slot, that means they're down big which will put the 11 and 20 packages out. Godwin is going to be the middle of the pack. Wouldn't be shocked to see that 6'5 monster in Evans in the slot. The Bucs are carrying some mad hype and it is going to crash and burn as the browns hype train. buyers beware.

A 12 package system is still run only about 50% of the time at most.  So Godwin is in the slot half the time and then running outside routes.  He's not coming off the field.  And he's still probably running the shorter routes.  And even if he's not, he's an elite WR wherever he lines up.   Winston missed him several times on deep shots where he had a couple of steps on the DB.  At this point in his career, I'm confident that he's the best WR on the team.  Maybe his ceiling is lowered but should consistently deliver top 12 finishes.  And I'd be surprised if has many finishes outside the top 12.

Edited by K197040
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16 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

So this 12 package system is magically going to have a slot? I wouldn't be shocked to see them in 13 package either. If Godwin goes to the slot, that means they're down big which will put the 11 and 20 packages out. Godwin is going to be the middle of the pack. Wouldn't be shocked to see that 6'5 monster in Evans in the slot. The Bucs are carrying some mad hype and it is going to crash and burn as the browns hype train. buyers beware.

What 12 package?  TB ran 12 personnel 23% of the time last season, 10th in the league.  Arizona under Arians was in 12 personnel 28% of the time in 2016, and 30% in 2017.  So Arians seems to always be towards the higher end in using 12 personnel, but the slot WR in Arians' offense is well known as typically being very productive (Larry Fitz).  And Godwin will still be on the field when they do go 12 personnel, just lined up split instead of in a slot position.  It's not like he'll be coming off the field for Justin Watson.  

Of course Godwin isn't the later round sleeper he was last year, but I'll be shocked if he isn't a WR1 this season at worst in PPR or 0.5 PPR.  

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1 minute ago, Fort4242 said:

What 12 package?  TB ran 12 personnel 23% of the time last season, 10th in the league.  Arizona under Arians was in 12 personnel 28% of the time in 2016, and 30% in 2017.  So Arians seems to always be towards the higher end in using 12 personnel, but the slot WR in Arians' offense is well known as typically being very productive (Larry Fitz).  And Godwin will still be on the field when they do go 12 personnel, just lined up split instead of in a slot position.  It's not like he'll be coming off the field for Justin Watson.  

Of course Godwin isn't the later round sleeper he was last year, but I'll be shocked if he isn't a WR1 this season at worst in PPR or 0.5 PPR.  

Agree with all of this except the last year "late round sleeper" designation.  Iirc, he was pegged as a breakout by almost everyone.   Late 3rd, early 4th ADP I think.

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2 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Agree with all of this except the last year "late round sleeper" designation.  Iirc, he was pegged as a breakout by almost everyone.   Late 3rd, early 4th ADP I think.

True that - 4th round ADP last year.  Thought he was a bit later.  

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5 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

What 12 package?  TB ran 12 personnel 23% of the time last season, 10th in the league.  Arizona under Arians was in 12 personnel 28% of the time in 2016, and 30% in 2017.  So Arians seems to always be towards the higher end in using 12 personnel, but the slot WR in Arians' offense is well known as typically being very productive (Larry Fitz).  And Godwin will still be on the field when they do go 12 personnel, just lined up split instead of in a slot position.  It's not like he'll be coming off the field for Justin Watson.  

Of course Godwin isn't the later round sleeper he was last year, but I'll be shocked if he isn't a WR1 this season at worst in PPR or 0.5 PPR.  

 

3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Agree with all of this except the last year "late round sleeper" designation.  Iirc, he was pegged as a breakout by almost everyone.   Late 3rd, early 4th ADP I think.

 

Was thinking the exact same thing. 

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21 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

So this 12 package system is magically going to have a slot?

Gronk lines up out wide pretty frequently and OJ is equally capable of lining up out wide which I would move Godwin to the slot in 12 personnel.

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How crazy is it to take this guy over the likes of Hopkins and Hill?

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16 minutes ago, Andy Mick said:

How crazy is it to take this guy over the likes of Hopkins and Hill?

 

Why is taking him over Hopkins crazy?

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9 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Why is taking him over Hopkins crazy?

Idk that’s why I’m asking.

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21 minutes ago, Andy Mick said:

Idk that’s why I’m asking.

Not that crazy to me...

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Posted (edited)

Hammy issues popping up already. I think I'm out on him this yr. Uncertain if Brady loves him as much as Winston, if Brady will have to throw nearly as much with an improved oline and less turnovers. Reports are that Brady loves Scotty miller and his TEs. Lots of mouths to feed

 

Coming from someone who was reaching and gobbling up godwin in the early 3rd last yr...so I definitely like the guy, but not his situation as much as I did

Edited by scheibler

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My view on Godwin this year is pretty simple - I expect him to be about 90% of what he was last year. My reasoning is that I expect Brady to allow the offense to more well-rounded/efficient & get more out of their TEs, RBs, and even a little out of WRs like Justin Watson & Scotty Miller. In a similar vein, I expect a more well-rounded offense and much less INT prone QB to force fewer high-risk, high-reward balls. I also expect Brady to look at his TEs in red zone opportunities a bit more than Winston did which could shave at least a couple TD opportunities from Godwin.

Overall, I think Godwin is still a very worthy WR1 pick. I'll admit that I might not be factoring in enough progression given that he's only 24 and could still have some growth left in him especially with a better QB like Brady. But even then, Brady is 43 and as I said before I think the largest effect of Brady on Godwin will be realized moreso in the efficiency department than gaudy fantasy stats.

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Do we think Brady throws for >5,000 yards like Winston did last season? He's done it twice before in 2011 and 2007, but I'm not confident enough to take Godwin in the second/third.

 

Someone in my draft bought Godwin and Evans both for $44 and $45 on a $200 budget, so I guess some people are confident.

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I had a chance to take Godwin in 2.9 but passed for Golloday. When I came back to 3.4 he was still there so I took almost 4 hours (slow draft) to decide between him and Moore... In the end I took Godwin.

It was a $250 league so you'd think people in general care enough to know what they're doing. I'm surprised he fell that much personally.

Analysts on YouTube in general seem bullish.

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I think you should draft Scotty Miller if you take Godwin. If Godwin were to get hurt I bet Miller would step into his role

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8 minutes ago, scheibler said:

I think you should draft Scotty Miller if you take Godwin. If Godwin were to get hurt I bet Miller would step into his role

 

Yea rumor online is Brady loves Miller fwiw. Personally I'm also targeting Brady as my Q1 and I'll probably take Miller later on (12 team 20 rounds draft, so I'll try to take him in the last quarter rounds).

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1 hour ago, young dude said:

 

Yea rumor online is Brady loves Miller fwiw. Personally I'm also targeting Brady as my Q1 and I'll probably take Miller later on (12 team 20 rounds draft, so I'll try to take him in the last quarter rounds).

 

I took him Rd 16 of a 17rd draft and nobody mentioned anything. He's off most people's radar and completely free

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24 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

I took him Rd 16 of a 17rd draft and nobody mentioned anything. He's off most people's radar and completely free

Miller is free right now because Godwin nor Mike Evans are slated to miss any games and he is 5th in the passing pecking order but if either miss any games, Miller would quickly become relevant and useful in fantasy because as stated Brady seems to love him.

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