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Josh Allen 2020 Outlook

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John Brown is the reason why the Bills offense sucks the past few weeks. Take it from someone who watches every game twice.

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9 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

John Brown is the reason why the Bills offense sucks the past few weeks. Take it from someone who watches every game twice.

I honestly can't tell if you're being sarcastic, but if not...what happened in week 3 when Brown was MIA but Allen went for 300+ and 4 TDs and beat the Rams?

Edited by owenmills

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

So you've seen 2 games, one of which was pouring rain with guys falling and dropping passes all over. Lol ok.

Those teams you named have David Johnson and Joe Mixon in their backfield... Not little Devin Singletary who is a COP back that can't run between the tackles. Defenses are changing the way they game plan vs the Bills and completely ignore the play action that worked so well early on.

Just funny to me you make this assessment that: "Unbelievable how quickly Allen has regressed from looking like an elite top 5 fantasy QB to looking like a QB you can no longer be confident starting." Without actually watching him lol

Why are you so hung up on how many games I’ve watched? Numbers don’t lie, and they don’t change based on whether or not I watch him play. And while numbers certainly don’t tell the whole story, they do tell quite a bit of it.
 

Weeks 1-3 he was putting up elite fantasy numbers. Since then he’s been average at best. He no longer looks like the set and forget QB we hoped he was after week 3, and Im sure I’m not the only Josh Allen owner who doesn’t feel super confident about starting him vs NE next week. So yes, I think it’s fair to say that fantasy-wise, he has regressed from looking like an elite top 5 fantasy QB to looking like a QB you can no longer be confident starting. 

312/2/0, 57/1

415/4/0, 19/0

311/4/1, 8/1

288/2/0, -1/1

263/2/2, 18/0

122/2/1, 42/0

307/0/0, 61/0

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford

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4 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Why are you so hung up on how many games I’ve watched? Numbers don’t Lie, and they don’t change based on whether or not I watch him play. And while numbers certainly don’t tell the whole story, they do tell quite a bit of it.
 

Weeks 1-3 he was putting up elite fantasy numbers. Since then he’s been average at best. He no longer looks like the set and forget QB we hoped he was after week 3, and Im sure I’m not the only Josh Allen owner who doesn’t feel super confident about starting him vs NE next week. So yes, I think it’s fair to say that fantasy-wise, he has regressed from looking like an elite top 5 fantasy QB to looking like a QB you can no longer be confident starting. 

312/2/0, 57/1

415/4/0, 19/0

311/4/1, 8/1

288/2/0, -1/1

263/2/2, 18/0

122/2/1, 42/0

307/0/0, 61/0

 

You have to start him due to his running ability, big play ability, and the fact that the bills have to throw because, A: the running game is crap, and B: the defense gives up tons of points

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9 minutes ago, owenmills said:

I honestly can't tell if you're being sarcastic, but if not...what happened in week 3 when Brown was MIA but Allen went for 300+ and 4 TDs and beat the Rams?

Bills running backs averaged about 5.5 a carry that game and it's the only game where their running offense actually opened things up down the field. Singletary had 120 all purpose and 5.5 YPC in that one and dominated. If you make the Bills one-sided and have no field stretching element, Allen is much more limited in his opportunities to actually produce.

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43 minutes ago, owenmills said:

It's kind of terrifying if John Brown is really this integral to Josh Allen's outlook. Especially against the New York Jets

 

John Brown is the Bills #2 offensive weapon behind Diggs.

He was the WR20 last year and was putting up WR2 numbers this year.

Not sure what point you're making, other than you clearly underrating the hell out of John Brown. A healthy John Brown is better than a healthy OBJ. All Brown does is run great routes, create separation, and catch the ball consistently.

Conservative game plan against the Jets, did enough to win the game.

Edited by PisEdiRin

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1 hour ago, Br0kenB said:

John Brown is the reason why the Bills offense sucks the past few weeks. Take it from someone who watches every game twice.

 

Absolutely is. A healthy Brown makes this Offense unstoppable.

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1 hour ago, Br0kenB said:

Bills running backs averaged about 5.5 a carry that game and it's the only game where their running offense actually opened things up down the field. Singletary had 120 all purpose and 5.5 YPC in that one and dominated. If you make the Bills one-sided and have no field stretching element, Allen is much more limited in his opportunities to actually produce.

Ok. I feel like we're making excuses for him, especially since it was against the Jets and he has proven he can be functionally competent without Brown against a far better team. But I'm not going to belabor the point

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14 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Ok. I feel like we're making excuses for him, especially since it was against the Jets and he has proven he can be functionally competent without Brown against a far better team. But I'm not going to belabor the point

 

John Brown last 3 weeks

Jets - DNP

Chiefs - Gimpy, was limping early on, was taken out

Titans - DNP

Allen made magic happen versus the Rams. He made something out of nothing and willed his team to victory in that game, even without Brown.

Teams made adjustments, without Brown the 2020 Bills are just the 2019 Bills except with Diggs playing the Brown role, Beasley being the same.

Next time John Brown is 100%, expect a monster game from Josh Allen. A healthy John Brown is a Fantasy WR2, especially in this offense.

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He threw for over 300 yards and had what, 66 yards rushing?  TDs are up and down.  Heck, Mahomes was lucky to get his 1 TD yesterday.  I'd be far more concerned if he threw for sub-200 yards against the Jets.  

Better days ahead.  We know what we have.  He is a running QB with a cannon arm that is literally unstoppable when he is on, but makes plenty of mistakes both mental and accuracy-wise.  We just have to hope he plays better and/or things work out for him.  He had a TD called back, right?  I mean, he gets that TD and probably people are not that worried about him.

He's a high upside, high floor QB.  Not sure what the doomsday talk is about.

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1 hour ago, PisEdiRin said:

 

John Brown is the Bills #2 offensive weapon behind Diggs.

He was the WR20 last year and was putting up WR2 numbers this year.

Not sure what point you're making, other than you clearly underrating the hell out of John Brown. A healthy John Brown is better than a healthy OBJ. All Brown does is run great routes, create separation, and catch the ball consistently.

Conservative game plan against the Jets, did enough to win the game.

 

 

A scorching hot take lmao

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I don't disagree with him tbh.

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The Bills when they got deep into their opponents territory last game:

 

  • 1st & 10 at NYJ 22

    (12:29 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to R.Gilliam to NYJ 7 for 15 yards (M.Maye; N.Hewitt).

  • 1st & Goal at NYJ 7

    (11:57 - 2nd) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to G.Davis. PENALTY on BUF-I.Boettger, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 7 - No Play.

  • 1st & Goal at NYJ 17

    (11:53 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to C.Beasley to NYJ 14 for 3 yards (N.Hewitt).

  • 2nd & 14 at NYJ 14

    (11:11 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right. Penalty on BUF-B.Winters, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

  • 3rd & Goal at NYJ 14

    (11:05 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen sacked at NYJ 22 for -8 yards (T.Basham). FUMBLES (T.Basham) [T.Basham], RECOVERED by NYJ-J.Franklin-Myers at NYJ 20.

 

 

  • 1st & 10 at NYJ 20

    (12:22 - 3rd) I.McKenzie right end to NYJ 31 for -11 yards (B.Huff).

  • 2nd & 21 at NYJ 31

    (11:47 - 3rd) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-B.Winters, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 31 - No Play.

  • 2nd & 26 at NYJ 36

    (11:28 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short middle to C.Beasley to NYJ 28 for 8 yards (B.Poole; A.Williamson).

  • 3rd & 18 at NYJ 28

    (10:47 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to S.Diggs (B.McDougald).

  • 4th & 18 at NYJ 28

    (10:35 - 3rd) Tyler Bass 46 Yd Field Goal

 

 

  • 1st & 10 at NYJ 22

    (2:59 - 3rd) Z.Moss right end to NYJ 22 for no gain (F.Fatukasi).

  • 2nd & 10 at NYJ 22

    (2:10 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep left to G.Davis for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on BUF, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 22 - No Play.

  • 2nd & 15 at NYJ 27

    (2:04 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to C.Beasley.

  • 3rd & 15 at NYJ 27

    (1:57 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to T.Kroft pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 8 yards (A.Davis).

  • 4th & 7 at NYJ 19

    (1:37 - 3rd) Tyler Bass 37 Yd Field Goal

 

 

  • 1st & 10 at NYJ 20

    (13:17 - 4th) D.Singletary left tackle to NYJ 19 for 1 yard (N.Hewitt, A.Williamson).

  • 2nd & 9 at NYJ 19

    (12:36 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short left to D.Singletary.

  • 3rd & 9 at NYJ 19

    (12:31 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep right.

  • 4th & 9 at NYJ 19

    (12:23 - 4th) T.Bass 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-C.Bojorquez.

 

 

 

  • 1st & 10 at NYJ 12

    (8:13 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen left guard to NYJ 7 for 5 yards (N.Hewitt).

  • 2nd & 5 at NYJ 7

    (7:29 - 4th) D.Singletary left guard to NYJ 6 for 1 yard (M.Maye).

  • 3rd & 4 at NYJ 6

    (6:44 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen sacked at NYJ 11 for -5 yards (Q.Williams).

  • 4th & 9 at NYJ 11

    (6:01 - 4th) Tyler Bass 29 Yd Field Goal

 

  • 1st & 10 at NYJ 30

    (3:00 - 4th) Z.Moss left tackle to NYJ 24 for 6 yards (N.Hewitt).

  •  

    (3:00 - 4th) Timeout #2 by NYJ at 02:54.

  • 2nd & 4 at NYJ 24

    (2:54 - 4th) (Shotgun) Z.Moss left guard to NYJ 22 for 2 yards (F.Fatukasi).

  •  

    (2:08 - 4th) Timeout #1 by BUF at 02:08.

  • 3rd & 2 at NYJ 22

    (2:08 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen up the middle to NYJ 22 for no gain (H.Anderson; F.Fatukasi).

  •  

    (2:08 - 4th) Two-Minute Warning

  • 4th & 2 at NYJ 22

    (1:56 - 4th) Tyler Bass 40 Yd Field Goal

 

 

 

As you can see, a lot of the drives were killed by penalties, bad luck (that TD callback was dubious), or dumb plays -11 yard run by McKenzie.  Their run game sucks outside of Allen doing what he does.  A little bit of luck and he has at least two TD.  He didn't kill it this week, but he didn't hurt anyone either.

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His first meeting with NE was a nightmare last year (3 picks and the concussion), but the 2nd time was pretty solid against that D. Brown did get a long TD in the 2nd game, so him playing would be imperative for Allen's fantasy prospects.

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I’m surprised a lot of rankings have Allen in the 5-10 range. This just sets up as a low scoring game. NE isn’t going to force the Buffalo offense to put up a lot of points. I know the Niners took it to them last week, but they are still a good defense. He has struggled against KC, Tennessee and the Jets. The latter two are bottom feeders on defense. The Pats are much stronger than all those.
 

Let’s not forget Allen is also without his top TE, Knox. So he is basically without his second best WR and his best TE. A core of Diggs, Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Kroft has to rank near last in the NFL in terms of pass catchers.

Edited by LionKid90

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Belichick knows Josh Allen's weaknesses, and there are many.  My recollection is that Josh Allen has yet to beat New England in his pro career.  Maybe this week will be the first.

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This game now has the lowest betting total for week 8. The total is 43. Sports books are expecting a slow grind it out, defensive type of game.

Glass half full says to play him because even with the tough matchup his floor is very high. He just had a where they didn’t even score a TD and he managed 16 points. 
 

Glass half empty says he has played three straight games at his floor and is getting a tougher matchup.

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9 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Belichick knows Josh Allen's weaknesses, and there are many.  My recollection is that Josh Allen has yet to beat New England in his pro career.  Maybe this week will be the first.

3rd year Josh Allen is a vastly improved player... Yet to win equates to 3 games so far, who cares...

The real meat of this though is Belichick is a top notch gameplanner who excels at confusing and baiting QBs... QBs have not fared too well vs NE this year:

QB, Team Pa Yards - TD - INT

Fitz, Mia: 191-0-3

Wilson, Sea: 397-1-1

Carr, LV: 261-2-0

Mahomes, KC: 236-2-0

Lock, Den: 189-0-2

Garrapollo, SF: 277-0-2

 

From a fantasy standpoint they have been stingy on QBs. 

 

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

3rd year Josh Allen is a vastly improved player... Yet to win equates to 3 games so far, who cares...

The real meat of this though is Belichick is a top notch gameplanner who excels at confusing and baiting QBs... QBs have not fared too well vs NE this year:

QB, Team Pa Yards - TD - INT

Fitz, Mia: 191-0-3

Wilson, Sea: 397-1-1

Carr, LV: 261-2-0

Mahomes, KC: 236-2-0

Lock, Den: 189-0-2

Garrapollo, SF: 277-0-2

 

From a fantasy standpoint they have been stingy on QBs. 

 

 

You got the Russell Wilson line wrong.  He went off for 5 TD's against NE.

Not liking the over/under here.  That really does not bode well and it's something I look at when deciding whether to start a player.

Still, I'm gonna start him.  Week 3, I sat Josh because of the matchup and he went crazy.  Not gonna do that again.

 

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26 minutes ago, kp96 said:

 

You got the Russell Wilson line wrong.  He went off for 5 TD's against NE.

Not liking the over/under here.  That really does not bode well and it's something I look at when deciding whether to start a player.

Still, I'm gonna start him.  Week 3, I sat Josh because of the matchup and he went crazy.  Not gonna do that again.

 

Whoops!! You are right, i accidentally punched in Cam Newton's line from that game... Wilson was... 

288-5-1

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15 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Belichick knows Josh Allen's weaknesses, and there are many.  My recollection is that Josh Allen has yet to beat New England in his pro career.  Maybe this week will be the first.

 

 

Allen has little to no weaknesses at all.

Accuracy? One of the best in the entire NFL.(Fact). Josh Allen is factually one of the most ACCURATE passers in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

How about converting 3rd down? Best in the league so far.

 

How about decision making inside the Red Zone? Perfect so far (literally) = 0 career Red Zone INTs

 

How about.....Winning? All Josh Allen does is Win.

Bills are 20-11 when Allen starts/finishes a game.

Bills are 1-7 when Allen does not.

 

Josh Allen is a future 1st Ballot HOFer. Special, transcendent player. 

End of story.

Edited by PisEdiRin

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Well your special, transcendent player just failed to get his team into the end zone against the Jets.  And Allen is about to get exposed yet again against New England in a few days' time.

But keep returning to this thread with your promotional materials generated by pro-Bills blogs.  Your entries are quite amusing.

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[...] All he does is win, he's 20-11 😄. Little to now weaknesses, but almost lost to the New York Jets. But but it was only because John Brown didn't play. Otherwise he would've been flashing the first ballot HOF pedigree. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Don't make this personal.
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New England defense has been hit hard by injuries recently.  They went from 14th ranked overall last week (adjusted for strength of opponent per DVOA), all the way down to 25th overall.  23rd ranked pass defense, 25th ranked rush defense. Worse pass defense than PHI, DAL, GB, TEN, BUF, and virtually identical to HOU.  Would any of you bench Allen against those defenses?  Hell no.

In other words, they all-around suck now, even with Belichick and his giant brain.

NYJ defense ranked 20th overall, btw.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020

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