euphoriahbo

Josh Allen 2020 Outlook

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Late I like Antonio Gandy-Golden & Lynn Bowden jr. I disagree with your last sentence, they could stand better depth but are hurting badly with size. 

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RB Devin Singletary had the lowest % of 8+ defenders at the line @ 5.3%

For reference (Next Gen Stats)

Zeke : 19.27%

Ingram : 22.28%

CMC : 23.34%

Kamara: 16.37%

Gurley: 24.22%


The JA Effect, he opens up his RB. That shows the respect NFL defenses have for him, just 5.3% of the time Singletary ran against an 8-man box, lowest rate in the entire NFL

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On 4/7/2020 at 8:37 AM, Br0kenB said:

We are most certainly going to be a top AFC team this year but I don't think that Josh will take a good step forward as a passer. This off-season is a wash and I don't trust him to become better from sitting at home until August (fingers crossed.)


Gonna be one to watch.   Allen’s accuracy is a major sore spot for this entire offense.    Diggs isn’t known for being patient either.   But...Allen does a lot of other things well and this is the year to get New England.   I just can’t pick Buffalo to go anywhere in the postseason until Allen shows he can function in the passing game as well as read-option/ short deceptive plays.   

 

Prediction: AFC east champs,  first round exit 

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23 hours ago, Impreza178 said:


Gonna be one to watch.   Allen’s accuracy is a major sore spot for this entire offense.    Diggs isn’t known for being patient either.   But...Allen does a lot of other things well and this is the year to get New England.   I just can’t pick Buffalo to go anywhere in the postseason until Allen shows he can function in the passing game as well as read-option/ short deceptive plays.   

 

Prediction: AFC east champs,  first round exit 

We have identical takes on him.

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21 hours ago, euphoriahbo said:

"RB Devin Singletary had the lowest % of 8+ defenders at the line @ 5.3% ... The JA Effect, he opens up his RB. That shows the respect NFL defenses have for him, just 5.3% of the time Singletary ran against an 8-man box, lowest rate in the entire NFL."

 

Personel grouping, tendency & situation all factor in the look an offense will get from the defense. At the combine the team met with the better RBs, including Zack Moss. There was some hope he'd be a day-3 pick but I've read that the league has informed him that his knee has checked out.... If the Bills don't draft him at the back of the 2nd, I think the Chiefs will. If a run of the top tier occurs prior to then, I think a WR will be a strong possibility. Two reasons, while Diggs was a huge addition, they still need better depth & size. The second reason is that while the team met with 35 prospects at the combine, 10 of those players were WRs!     

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On 4/13/2020 at 8:25 PM, markrc99 said:

 

Personel grouping, tendency & situation all factor in the look an offense will get from the defense. At the combine the team met with the better RBs, including Zack Moss. There was some hope he'd be a day-3 pick but I've read that the league has informed him that his knee has checked out.... If the Bills don't draft him at the back of the 2nd, I think the Chiefs will. If a run of the top tier occurs prior to then, I think a WR will be a strong possibility. Two reasons, while Diggs was a huge addition, they still need better depth & size. The second reason is that while the team met with 35 prospects at the combine, 10 of those players were WRs!     

Spot on.

Quote

Round 2, pick 54: A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa

Round 3, pick 86: Zack Moss, RB, Utah

Round 4, pick 128: Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF

Round 5, pick 167: Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia

Round 6, pick 188 (from Browns): Tyler Bass, K, Georgia Southern

Round 6, pick 207 (from Ravens through Patriots): Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Oregon State

Round 7, pick 239 (from Vikings): Dane Jackson, CB, Pitt

 

Interestingly for Allen though is that they also found him a guy to hold his clipboard. Not a LOT of draft capital, but still.

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On 4/12/2020 at 9:53 AM, euphoriahbo said:

RB Devin Singletary had the lowest % of 8+ defenders at the line @ 5.3%

For reference (Next Gen Stats)

Zeke : 19.27%

Ingram : 22.28%

CMC : 23.34%

Kamara: 16.37%

Gurley: 24.22%


The JA Effect, he opens up his RB. That shows the respect NFL defenses have for him, just 5.3% of the time Singletary ran against an 8-man box, lowest rate in the entire NFL

Or it shows defense have 0 fear of Singultary

Notice the other rbs you posted are good at their job. Thats why they face stacked boxes.

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Just now, itslarry said:

Or it shows defense have 0 fear of Singultary

Notice the other rbs you posted are good at their job. Thats why they face stacked boxes.


yeah that’s it

 

its because Singletary is so bad no one cares when he touches the ball.  
 

👏 👏 brilliant deduction 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

 "lnterestingly for Allen though is that they also found him a guy to hold his clipboard. Not a LOT of draft capital, but still."

 

'Ppreciate the plug, definitely like-worthy! :) I'm not sure playoff games are included, I don't believe they are, but Buffalo was 18th in their red-zone conversion rate (56.52%). However, over their final three games their rate plummeted to (28.57%), only one other team was worse, Chicago. Whether or not their playoff loss is included, it certainly carried over. What they might do with Davis & Hodgins in camp is focus entirely on work in the red-zone. Something we went over already was how many RBs 5'9" &/or sub 200lb assumed heavy workloads over the past several decades. There's about a handful of them. I really like a lot of what this team has done. 

Edited by markrc99

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Anyone who thinks Singletary is not good just hasn't been watching. He is electric.

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I agree that Josh Allen lacks in accuracy, but he can do things to win games in so many other ways such as with his running ability. Other than Lamar Jackson and what he does he just may be the 2nd best QB runner in the league. Deshaun Watson is up there as well. I see the Bills taking this division in 2020/21 over the Bradyless Patriots and Allen will be a huge part of that.

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10 hours ago, BleachyBlonde said:

I agree that Josh Allen lacks in accuracy, but he can do things to win games in so many other ways such as with his running ability. Other than Lamar Jackson and what he does he just may be the 2nd best QB runner in the league. Deshaun Watson is up there as well. I see the Bills taking this division in 2020/21 over the Bradyless Patriots and Allen will be a huge part of that.

Why are you so smart? 

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I just realized that the Phins were scheduled on week 17.  FFS, how could they short us Allen owners like that!

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One more year of Josh Allen being good in fantasy but bad in real life?  Or will Josh Allen be 2020's version of 2019 Mitchell Trubiesky?

Teams are going to watch the tapes of the New England games and adjust accordingly.

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True, but the Pats stymied almost everybody- not something most teams can just carbon copy.  Still, Allen does have to prove he can beat good defenses.   

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4 minutes ago, BrianM said:

True, but the Pats stymied almost everybody- not something most teams can just carbon copy.  Still, Allen does have to prove he can beat good defenses.   

He has beaten good defenses.  Is that not proof enough?

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Best i can come up with that qualifies as a win over a good D is Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Denver- and all three games required him to just not **** himself while the defense held tight.   

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Pittsburgh's D was good last year but their offense was beyond the pale without Big Ben.  Was Flacco playing when the Bills beat Denver?  Oof.  Tennessee..lemme guess...before Tannehill took over.  Yeah.

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The games where we had to score to keep up, we lost. And Denver was starting Brandon Allen against us, and Tennessee had Mariota out there. Philly hit us in the mouth and we couldn't keep up.

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Posted (edited)

I had Tebow in fantasy one year. He really wasn't good in real life, but he was very good in fantasy. However, from what I remember it seemed like he always started slow and then somehow would turn it on, whether garbage time or actually squeezing wins out of his a**(which he did that year, with a lot of help from his defense). Allen seems the same to me. I swear his stat line is usually grotesque for like 3 quarters but when I check at the end of the game the guy has scored me 20 fantasy points. 

Edit: before any Allen fans get pissy, I'm not saying he's on the same talent level as Tebow. He just seems to have a knack for sucking balls for most of the game and then churning out a good fantasy line.

Edited by owenmills
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On 5/15/2020 at 8:47 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

One more year of Josh Allen being good in fantasy but bad in real life?  Or will Josh Allen be 2020's version of 2019 Mitchell Trubiesky?

Teams are going to watch the tapes of the New England games and adjust accordingly.

 

No way, you mean the 2019 historic, all-time great Patriots Defense gave Josh Allen some problems?

 

By the way, u do realize Allen had a 103 passer rating in the 2nd Pats game, right? 

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7 minutes ago, owenmills said:

I had Tebow in fantasy one year. He really wasn't good in real life, but he was very good in fantasy. However, from what I remember it seemed like he always started slow and then somehow would turn it on, whether garbage time or actually squeezing wins out of his a**(which he did that year, with a lot of help from his defense). Allen seems the same to me. I swear his stat line is usually grotesque for like 3 quarters but when I check at the end of the game the guy has scored me 20 fantasy points. 

The real problem being that you will have to pay full price for that ride this coming season, as he's currently QB8 off the board. Too pricey for me

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1 hour ago, euphoriahbo said:

 

No way, you mean the 2019 historic, all-time great Patriots Defense gave Josh Allen some problems?

 

By the way, u do realize Allen had a 103 passer rating in the 2nd Pats game, right? 

 

Hyperbole much? Still Im not going fault Allen for struggling against some good defenses.

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When he came out of the draft I thought a lot about Elway. He probably will be the best QB in AFC east. All teams have young ones. But I think this guy can turn it up. Give him another year of experience. Great situation. 

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10 minutes ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

When he came out of the draft I thought a lot about Elway. He probably will be the best QB in AFC east. All teams have young ones. But I think this guy can turn it up. Give him another year of experience. Great situation. 

Interesting comp 
He does have the arm strength and mobility of a young Elway...

not sure he’ll ever be the passer john was.   

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