6Kill

Pete Alonso 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Alright enough is enough, this guy deserves a thread.  I mean for God-sakes he broke the rookie record for most HRs in a season.  He plays for the Mets so that automatically makes him a risk for getting injured.  Where's everyone targeting this dad-bod stud?

Edited by 6Kill

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His rookie year will very likely be his career year, and I'm not buying at that price.

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1 hour ago, Jyeatbvg said:

His rookie year will very likely be his career year, and I'm not buying at that price.

 

53 HR is a career year for anyone.

My main problem with Alonso is that he's the most expensive "power only" guy in fantasy right now. There are just so many of these guys out there. So while I love the player, I doubt I will have any shares of him. I could see him having 45-50 HR with a .260 AVG. At his price and with the abundance of similar guys, I probably won't pay the high price for him.

 

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.250 avg 90/42/110 are my projections for a full season. Haven’t been targeting him in drafts. I’d rather go with someone safer like Blackmon or a top 2B like Albies Torres or Marte at that ADP

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I actually think we see a little higher avg (.270-.280) and less HRs (~45), and that’s with keeping a mid-20s k%.  I think the gains in avg will be mostly seeing better babip luck and if he continues to mature, getting his k% closer to what he had in the minors.  The latter won’t happen all in one season but he’s not far off IMO.  The article below has a pretty interesting analysis which points to some of his avg woes being partially luck driven.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/breaking-down-babip-what-impacts-flyball-babip-for-hitters/

 

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22 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

His rookie year will very likely be his career year, and I'm not buying at that price.

 

Yeah I would be wary of overpaying for the career year too. Then again, those that already own him in keeper leagues are likely ecstatic to have bought in early. I know there was a juiced ball to account for, but he still led the entire league in HR as a rookie. His floor for HR in a full season is probably 30. With a decent offense around him he could be a 3-category star for years (tough to see him ever hitting .330).

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Now you guys tell me, he has been my 3rd round pick all draft season! Good thing 1B is a wasteland after Olsen and Abreu...Are you really going to trust CHristian Walker at 1B?

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Now you guys tell me, he has been my 3rd round pick all draft season! Good thing 1B is a wasteland after Olsen and Abreu...Are you really going to trust CHristian Walker at 1B?

I also took Pete in the middle of the third, could have waited a round or 2 to get Olsen or Rizzo, but I’m ok with Pete. I think he will be fine and be able to return close to his ADP. 

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2 hours ago, wahoos1 said:

I also took Pete in the middle of the third, could have waited a round or 2 to get Olsen or Rizzo, but I’m ok with Pete. I think he will be fine and be able to return close to his ADP. 

Out of curiosity what size league/settings did he go third round?

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2 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

Out of curiosity what size league/settings did he go third round?

12 teamer for me...I thought he was 2nd round value myself so easy pick for me there

5
Mookie Betts LAD, RF
1
20
Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B
2
29
Pete Alonso NYM, 1B
3
44
Keston Hiura Mil, 2B
4
53
5
68
Matt Olson Oak, 1B
6
77
Yu Darvish ChC, SP
7

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4 hours ago, wahoos1 said:

I also took Pete in the middle of the third, could have waited a round or 2 to get Olsen or Rizzo, but I’m ok with Pete. I think he will be fine and be able to return close to his ADP. 

I took him in the 3rd as well, pick 35 of a 12 team redraft: have him in keeper and dynasty as well...1B is kind of thin

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7 hours ago, OaksterDan said:

With a decent offense around him he could be a 3-category star for years (tough to see him ever hitting .330).

 

How many players are hitting .330 every year ?

Pete should be able to hit in the .260 range which won’t hurt for a guy banging 40 bombs every year.

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9 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

Out of curiosity what size league/settings did he go third round?

12 team, H2H, 5x5 standard settings, 3rd round pick 29

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11 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

12 teamer for me...I thought he was 2nd round value myself so easy pick for me there

5
Mookie Betts LAD, RF
1
20
Anthony Rendon LAA, 3B
2
29
Pete Alonso NYM, 1B
3
44
Keston Hiura Mil, 2B
4
53
5
68
Matt Olson Oak, 1B
6
77
Yu Darvish ChC, SP
7

Alonso in the 3rd is a no brainer, IMO.

 

Also, kudos on the first 7 picks. A dream start!

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15 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

How many players are hitting .330 every year ?

Pete should be able to hit in the .260 range which won’t hurt for a guy banging 40 bombs every year.

 

Agreed. I wasn't trying to disparage him. I'll take .260 from Alonso gladly. Just meant he's not exactly a BA star - he may not hurt you but he probably won't help much in that category either.

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I’m worried about him, have a share him and he looks so lost at the plate right now. Just 1 HR. So many Ks and some of his hits seemed fluky. There’s been batted ball luck get sure.

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Boy were we wrong...Alonso sucks

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4 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Boy were we wrong...Alonso sucks

Dude come off the ledge. He will be ok my guy. The shortened season is weird for everyone. Especially a 2nd year player.

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55 minutes ago, Fielder1831 said:

Dude come off the ledge. He will be ok my guy. The shortened season is weird for everyone. Especially a 2nd year player.

Overrated

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4 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Overrated

Dr. Whom here to properly rate folks.

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Can't wait to hear what the folks in this thread have to say about Cody Bellinger! 

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3 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Can't wait to hear what the folks in this thread have to say about Cody Bellinger! 


I kinda chuckle at anyone putting too much stock in what happens in this 60-game season. 

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