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2ndCitySox

Short Season Fantasy Strategy

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I'm trying to remain optimistic that some reasonable semblance of a season will occur this year. Let's say they can get 100 games in, with quite a few double headers. 

How might your draft change? Any changes to your in-season strategy?

My answers:

1) Obviously guys that were hurt rolling into March should move up your board.

2) Pitchers that were probably on innings limits might now be fully useful (i.e. no restrictions since 120 IP is probably max anyway). 

3) Given the higher variance in the end results of a players overall stat-line, I might be more willing to roll the dice more on volatile players. Either via draft, trade, or wire add. 

 

I'll probably supply some specific examples later, but I wanted to get the conversation started. 

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If it happens, a short season favors aggressive owners.  You aren't going to be able to hold onto that hurt or struggling player as long anymore.  Making big trades early to plug holes will be more crucial.  Streaming becomes more viable esp if they have multiple double headers a week.  You aren't going to really be able to sit around and be patient.  

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Honestly not much changes. An ace’s 200 innings now change to some equivalent of that in less innings. You don’t have inning limits to worry about with other starting pitchers, but the talent and production remains the same. You have less room for failure with underperforming players, but I don’t see much being different. As far your answers go:

 

1. Same thing as if those players were healthy on the original opening day.

2. Shouldn’t really affect much as aces are still aces and a mediocre starter is still a mediocre starter.

3. I would actually go with the opposite. You need reliable players more than ever, there’s less room for unpredictability. I don’t see much variance really, is Lindor over 100 games that much different than Lindor over 162? 

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I'm trying to trade all my pieces for picks as I'm a pessimist and don't think we'll have a season in 2020 unfortunately. 

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If they will only be playing 7 inning games twice a week, i won't be drafting many starters.

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guys with those innings limits to start the year like Paddack, Luzardo, Ohtani, and Urias now shoot up the board for me.. the 120 innings from them look like great value

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This whole virus thing will blow over come may I don’t think the season will be shortened by 62 games

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10 hours ago, azeri98 said:

If they will only be playing 7 inning games twice a week, i won't be drafting many starters.

I wouldn't think starters would be the issue, rather closers.  Guys like Verlander, Kershaw, etc., can easily throw what will now be a "CG".  I would think that leagues where certain categories, like QS are involved would be influenced.

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5 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

I wouldn't think starters would be the issue, rather closers.  Guys like Verlander, Kershaw, etc., can easily throw what will now be a "CG".  I would think that leagues where certain categories, like QS are involved would be influenced.

In the 7 inning double header, yeah, i could see closers being impacted, although in a shortened season, i still think clubs would want to use their bullpen just as often and keep those aces even more fresh for the playoffs than they may have been during a regular season.

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4 minutes ago, jonninho said:

In the 7 inning double header, yeah, i could see closers being impacted, although in a shortened season, i still think clubs would want to use their bullpen just as often and keep those aces even more fresh for the playoffs than they may have been during a regular season.

It's going to be interesting to see what goes on, for sure.  Another scenario I would anticipate, knowing that they have a DH, is to roll out the Ace in the first game to let them go deep, so the weaker link is starting game two (or they use an opener) then they will keep the bullpen fresh for the second game.  

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I think the pool of assets / players that contribute is smaller.

 

It’s going to be shorter, more competitive season. More teams are going to be in contention. You won’t have a September where the majority of the league is disqualified from playoff contention, and players who have basically put in a solid 5 months of work take September off.

 

I think a good draft and early season pickups pay off more in a short season.

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10 hours ago, azeri98 said:

If they will only be playing 7 inning games twice a week, i won't be drafting many starters.

Is that really going to be a thing? 

 

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Is that really going to be a thing? 

 

I don’t think it will be

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Is that really going to be a thing? 

 

God, I hope not

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good start will be important. something to remember in h2h nothing worse than facing a team week 1 that has 3+ aces  that all get 2 starts in the week. can really put you in a nice 3-7 hole after week 1. two start sp week 1 are very important imo even if they arent aces

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Something not mentioned here yet, and remains TBD, is the prospect effect. Will guys be called up earlier? Someone like Nate Pearson might get a chance right out of the gate depending on what the service time rules will be. Others like him could shoot up in value if teams have incentive to call them up earlier.

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14 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Something not mentioned here yet, and remains TBD, is the prospect effect. Will guys be called up earlier? Someone like Nate Pearson might get a chance right out of the gate depending on what the service time rules will be. Others like him could shoot up in value if teams have incentive to call them up earlier.

I think the sides just agreed on the service-time issue

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Just now, BMcP said:

I think the sides just agreed on the service-time issue

 

Yes I've seen the agreement in relation to players already in the big leagues. Haven't seen anything for prospects that may be called up mid season yet.

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11 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Yes I've seen the agreement in relation to players already in the big leagues. Haven't seen anything for prospects that may be called up mid season yet.

i think they have to scrap the super 2, extra year of control, certain % of the season in the minors. not like i own pearson carlson adell everywhere or anything

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

Something not mentioned here yet, and remains TBD, is the prospect effect. Will guys be called up earlier? Someone like Nate Pearson might get a chance right out of the gate depending on what the service time rules will be. Others like him could shoot up in value if teams have incentive to call them up earlier.

I went into my keeper draft with that intention. Not knowing what the future held, or still does. Went heavy on kids, Gore, May, Civale. The rosters will be increased from the new 26 to 29 for the first month. TBD if they'll maintain that or increase to 30 on DH days. I'd like to think they'll give these kids a chance early on from the next spring training, having extra roster spots. It's an expanded playoff format, so having your best 29 on the roster counts.

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23 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Honestly not much changes. An ace’s 200 innings now change to some equivalent of that in less innings. You don’t have inning limits to worry about with other starting pitchers, but the talent and production remains the same. You have less room for failure with underperforming players, but I don’t see much being different. As far your answers go:

 

1. Same thing as if those players were healthy on the original opening day.

2. Shouldn’t really affect much as aces are still aces and a mediocre starter is still a mediocre starter.

3. I would actually go with the opposite. You need reliable players more than ever, there’s less room for unpredictability. I don’t see much variance really, is Lindor over 100 games that much different than Lindor over 162? 

 

I respectfully disagree about what you're saying about aces. I think that it is less important to draft an ace arm this year. When it is all said and done, I'm sure so statistically intelligent website like Fangraphs will be able to prove (or disprove) this but, I think the potential flaws of 2nd and (maybe even) 3rd tier pitchers will be less magnified over a shorter season. Aces are aces because they provide superior numbers, week in and week out, over the long haul. Granted, I play in a H2H points league, so, maybe it is different than roto but, I feel like prime example: last year Matthew Boyd was higher in points standings at the end of July than where he ended up. If end of July was end of season, he would have been even more of a stud arm. At least in a points league, a Verlander/Cole/Buehler will be less better than a Luis Castillo/Giolito/Corbin in a 3-4 month season, than they would be over a normal season. 

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why would baseball change to 7 innings? would this be to help with double header games? except that can be solved by having 1 game in the afternoon, with another game at night. 2 innings eliminated isn't going to make a difference.

there could be more starting pitchers if teams go with a 6 man rotation to counter double headers.

is there data anywhere on which starting pitchers would be effected if teams stay with a 5 man rotation and some starters have to pitch on 4 days rest rather than 5+?

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Posted (edited)

Guys on innings limits increasing in value is biggest impact in my mind.  Urias perhaps the single biggest beneficiary 

Arguably proven closers and day 1 closers go up some as the timeframe to pick up and benefit from replacements declines.

Prospects a good question.  I think teams will approach differently—but agree that service time details will matter there.

If schedule is extra dense (doubleheaders and few days off) utility guys and multi position guys gain a little value in daily leagues as they will play more

Edited by Whizzinator

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31 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

why would baseball change to 7 innings? would this be to help with double header games? except that can be solved by having 1 game in the afternoon, with another game at night. 2 innings eliminated isn't going to make a difference.

 

There are many more variables to account for beyond the simple task of squeezing the games into the available time during each day.  Players wear down, and asking them to cram more games into a short period of time has the tendency to increase this.  Shaving a couple of innings off of each game allows more games to be played while not taxing players as much.  Other interventions like expanding rosters could help alleviate this, but at the expense of letting each team's best players determine the outcome.

Every deviation from the norm is going to be looked at sideways, but there's no possibility of a normal season at this point, so it's all about trying to get as close to normal as possible while maintaining fan interest and keeping the players happy.  It's a very difficult balance.

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17 hours ago, twentyone said:

 

I respectfully disagree about what you're saying about aces. I think that it is less important to draft an ace arm this year. When it is all said and done, I'm sure so statistically intelligent website like Fangraphs will be able to prove (or disprove) this but, I think the potential flaws of 2nd and (maybe even) 3rd tier pitchers will be less magnified over a shorter season. Aces are aces because they provide superior numbers, week in and week out, over the long haul. Granted, I play in a H2H points league, so, maybe it is different than roto but, I feel like prime example: last year Matthew Boyd was higher in points standings at the end of July than where he ended up. If end of July was end of season, he would have been even more of a stud arm. At least in a points league, a Verlander/Cole/Buehler will be less better than a Luis Castillo/Giolito/Corbin in a 3-4 month season, than they would be over a normal season. 

Well I have to respectfully disagree right back. Would you rather have 200 innings of Cole or 200 innings of Giolito? Or 120 innings of Cole or 120 innings of Giolito? I feel that 120 innings (or however it will be that is the equivalent of 200 in a regular length season) will basically be the new 200 innings this year, so the same rules apply. 
 

That said, I generally prefer second tier aces due to the cost, so I actually prefer Castillo/Giolito/Corbin to Verlander/Cole/Buehler, so I’m talking about the difference between aces and mid tier starters with upside.

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