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Short Season Fantasy Strategy

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On 3/28/2020 at 6:39 AM, Arrowhead said:

This whole virus thing will blow over come may I don’t think the season will be shortened by 62 games

looking at about a 90-100 game season.. no way we are back by May. maybe not even June

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3 hours ago, brooklynfinest42 said:

looking at about a 90-100 game season.. no way we are back by May. maybe not even June

I’m sure we’ll be back sooner than that.

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I have no idea when we'll be playing baseball again.

I don't really believe anyone else does either.

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nobody mention Alex Wood yet?

 

visited Driveline as well, Velo looked better sitting around 92 compared to 89 last year, if we talking 120 IP for most in a short season thats money for Wood back on the dodgers

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5 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

nobody mention Alex Wood yet?

 

visited Driveline as well, Velo looked better sitting around 92 compared to 89 last year, if we talking 120 IP for most in a short season thats money for Wood back on the dodgers

thats tough with may, gonsolin, stripling all waiting

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9 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

thats tough with may, gonsolin, stripling all waiting

 

If wood is healthy and performing i dont see how they bump him from the rotation just to get those guys in, and hes been named the No. 5 SP already as well with stripling set to be in the bullpen, May in the Minors is the primary threat but again dont see them calling him up to take woods spot barring injury

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21 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

If wood is healthy and performing i dont see how they bump him from the rotation just to get those guys in, and hes been named the No. 5 SP already as well with stripling set to be in the bullpen, May in the Minors is the primary threat but again dont see them calling him up to take woods spot barring injury

obviously he gets 1st crack and if he performs he should stick but if he doesnt perform there are plenty of capable replacements. i split up my shares between wood and garret richards just to be safer.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

obviously he gets 1st crack and if he performs he should stick but if he doesnt perform there are plenty of capable replacements. i split up my shares between wood and garret richards just to be safer.

 

Yea my thinking is he i doubt he struggles so if healthy choo choo hah but i have both him and richards as well, very popular late round fliers for sure

 

prob right around the Urquidy types

Edited by kmoore1521

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Naturally, for the same amount of innings, the better pitcher should perform better. But, my concept is that the gap between top tier and 2nd/3rd tier will be less substantial than a typical 162 game year. Normally, week in/week out, they would gradually pull away, and assert their dominance and consistency over the long haul but, with a drastically shorter season, they aren't going to pull away as much.  To your example: In a points league, over 162 games, lets say Cole outscores Giolito by 15-20%. Is Cole still going to outscore in by the same percentage over a substantially smaller sample? Because my hunch is that he still outscores him, but, by a smaller margin (maybe 5-10%). Meaning someone doesn't lose out as much by passing on a top tier pitcher. 

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1 hour ago, twentyone said:

Naturally, for the same amount of innings, the better pitcher should perform better. But, my concept is that the gap between top tier and 2nd/3rd tier will be less substantial than a typical 162 game year. Normally, week in/week out, they would gradually pull away, and assert their dominance and consistency over the long haul but, with a drastically shorter season, they aren't going to pull away as much.  To your example: In a points league, over 162 games, lets say Cole outscores Giolito by 15-20%. Is Cole still going to outscore in by the same percentage over a substantially smaller sample? Because my hunch is that he still outscores him, but, by a smaller margin (maybe 5-10%). Meaning someone doesn't lose out as much by passing on a top tier pitcher. 

 

that makes no sense.  in the same vein, over a substantially smaller sample Cole could outscore the average 2nd/3rd tier SP by 25 to 35%.

 

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7 hours ago, jb_power said:

 

that makes no sense.  in the same vein, over a substantially smaller sample Cole could outscore the average 2nd/3rd tier SP by 25 to 35%.

 

 

Historically, isn't the statistical differences between players at the all star break, narrower than they are at season end? I did't put much thought into the percentage that I used. Maybe your percentage is more accurate. I'm more than happy to give you that. I just think this year there is going to be a bigger cluster of players at the median, and less of a gap between average, and superior. And if that is the case, that somehow I should alter my approach to drafting than I would during a normal season. 

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54 minutes ago, twentyone said:

 

Historically, isn't the statistical differences between players at the all star break, narrower than they are at season end? I did't put much thought into the percentage that I used. Maybe your percentage is more accurate. I'm more than happy to give you that. I just think this year there is going to be a bigger cluster of players at the median, and less of a gap between average, and superior. And if that is the case, that somehow I should alter my approach to drafting than I would during a normal season. 

counting stats is where the differences will be smaller while the rate stats could/should stay as there are no matter how many games are played.

 

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On 3/30/2020 at 2:01 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

I’m sure we’ll be back sooner than that.

 

i'll bet anything there's no baseball in june.

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6 minutes ago, axiom20XX said:

 

i'll bet anything there's no baseball in june.

OK let’s bet. 

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Posted (edited)

Anyone have strategies for dynasty based on a shortened season? Anyone thinking of quasi-punting on 2020 and going after injured studs like Severino?

 

I should clarify: I mean to say that if you don’t see much of a chance of this season happening or that it will be drastically reduced and devalued...is it better to try and grab the Sale’s and Severino’s at a discount since 2020 may be a lost cause anyway. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver

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23 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Anyone have strategies for dynasty based on a shortened season? Anyone thinking of quasi-punting on 2020 and going after injured studs like Severino?

 

I should clarify: I mean to say that if you don’t see much of a chance of this season happening or that it will be drastically reduced and devalued...is it better to try and grab the Sale’s and Severino’s at a discount since 2020 may be a lost cause anyway. 

 

Strategy has some risks, but there's definitely merit to it. If you are ever going to punt a first season in dynasty this time right now is the exact time to do it. While I agree with the strategy I'm not sure Severino, Sale, and Syndergaard  are the best options as they will probably miss time next year as well.

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Strategy has some risks, but there's definitely merit to it. If you are ever going to punt a first season in dynasty this time right now is the exact time to do it. While I agree with the strategy I'm not sure Severino, Sale, and Syndergaard  are the best options as they will probably miss time next year as well.

Any other targets that make sense?

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If MLB rolls out a schedule starting with 1-2 months in Arizona, how will this affect the park factors for players who are helped or harmed by playing in hitter’s and pitcher’s parks? Some pitchers who pitch in places like SF would have a drastic change. Hitters who play half their games in Detroit may have a nice uptick. Do Rockies hitters get downgraded? Do Rockies pitchers get upgraded?

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21 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

If MLB rolls out a schedule starting with 1-2 months in Arizona, how will this affect the park factors for players who are helped or harmed by playing in hitter’s and pitcher’s parks? Some pitchers who pitch in places like SF would have a drastic change. Hitters who play half their games in Detroit may have a nice uptick. Do Rockies hitters get downgraded? Do Rockies pitchers get upgraded?

I'm very interested to see what Gray and Marquez do if they don't have to deal with Coors. Could be huge for their future pay days. 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

I'm very interested to see what Gray and Marquez do if they don't have to deal with Coors. Could be huge for their future pay days. 

I'm willing to wager the only "Coors" they are going to be dealing with is draining a few from their sofa.  Watching netflix reruns.

Amazon.com : 2but Coors Light Beer Flag Banner 3x5 Feet Novel ...

Edited by El_Chingon
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On 4/8/2020 at 9:07 PM, TheForearmShiver said:

If MLB rolls out a schedule starting with 1-2 months in Arizona, how will this affect the park factors for players who are helped or harmed by playing in hitter’s and pitcher’s parks? Some pitchers who pitch in places like SF would have a drastic change. Hitters who play half their games in Detroit may have a nice uptick. Do Rockies hitters get downgraded? Do Rockies pitchers get upgraded?

I think im simply downgrading all pitching in this scenario.  Possibly,  as you said,  the Col guys actually get a slight boost.  Between the heat and all those tiny parks,  coupled with a bunch of pitchers off the normal routine... seems like a recipe for a ton of offense.  

But who really knows,  hitters will be out of sync too. But i feel like the hitters will have more advantage here.  

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This changes everything.  Draft Florida pitchers and Arizona hitters:

 

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Major League Baseball is considering doing away with the American and National Leagues for the 2020 season.

It's just one of several scenarios that the league and the players' association is discussing. The idea would be to split the 30 teams between Arizona and Florida based on the geography of their spring training sites, constructing realigned Cactus League and Grapefruit League divisions during what would be an abbreviated season. Nightengale says that the designated hitter "would likely be universally implemented" under this scenario and that two more Wild Card teams could be added or they could possibly have a postseason tournament with all 30 teams. Like the proposed "Arizona Plan," this is just one idea that's being kicked around, as it doesn't appear anything is close to being decided.

 

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Things would get pretty interesting if they are still playing baseball outdoors in Florida during hurricane season.

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Universal DH would likely alter the value of some NL hitters. I would think guys like Ian Happ, Wil Myers and I'm sure some others would gain value with the DH, with less off days (maybe?). 

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, KCTD25 said:

Universal DH would likely alter the value of some NL hitters. I would think guys like Ian Happ, Wil Myers and I'm sure some others would gain value with the DH, with less off days (maybe?). 

blackmon, robles/trea, mookie, basically all good nl leadoff bats get nice bump in value. more rbi chance more ab's in general.

all nl sp lose some value facing 9 bats vs 8 and a sp

part time players/prospects/crowed postion players get nice boost. carlson and edman in stl comes to mind. lux dodgers ect.

 

kinda like the idea of tinkering with MLB this year and see how players/fans enjoy the no nl/al, no dh, hell go robot umpires as well. 3 min batters for sp.

a little like making a junky wait for just a little taste. even if the product is trash its still better than no product

Edited by colepenhagen
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