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2ndCitySox

Short Season Fantasy Strategy

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28 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

blackmon, robles/trea, mookie, basically all good nl leadoff bats get nice bump in value. more rbi chance more ab's in general.

all nl sp lose some value facing 9 bats vs 8 and a sp

part time players/prospects/crowed postion players get nice boost. carlson and edman in stl comes to mind. lux dodgers ect.

 

kinda like the idea of tinkering with MLB this year and see how players/fans enjoy the no nl/al, no dh, hell go robot umpires as well. 3 min batters for sp.

a little like making a junky wait for just a little taste. even if the product is trash its still better than no product

Good point about the NL pitchers. Didn't think of that. I drafted in early March before the 💩 hit the fan, and I always try to load up on NL pitchers. You're right this might be as good a time as any for them to experiment with some of these things to see how they work out. It's already going to be weird, might as well go all out. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, KCTD25 said:

Good point about the NL pitchers. Didn't think of that. I drafted in early March before the 💩 hit the fan, and I always try to load up on NL pitchers. You're right this might be as good a time as any for them to experiment with some of these things to see how they work out. It's already going to be weird, might as well go all out. 

makes sense. think most people perspective has changed a bit with whats going on in the world and might be more worried about other things that than some changes to a game.

would be a massive fail for mlb of they do not  capitalize on this and get all the experiments done in one season rather thank try and make one or 2 changes every year.

 

edit- id be open to limiting the shifts or how far a team can shift and i am/was completely against that.

Edited by colepenhagen

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2 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

makes sense. think most people perspective has changed a bit with whats going on in the world and might be more worried about other things that than some changes to a game.

would be a massive fail for mlb of they do not  capitalize on this and get all the experiments done in one season rather thank try and make one or 2 changes every year.

 

edit- id be open to limiting the shifts or how far a team can shift and i am/was completely against that.

 

This will be the one year MLB can get away with changing a ton of rules and the old school traditionalists won't complain.

Some guys that will get a boost with a DH in NL:

Mets: JD Davis / Dom Smith / Yoenis Cespedes (JD and Dom terrible fielders, Yoenis will need breaks for his legs)

Braves: Austin Riley (probably goes from part time to majority time)

Phillies: Andrew McCutchen / Roman Quinn (one more spot for playing time for Quinn, rest for McCutchen off injury)

Marlins: Jon Berti (he's the top back up at every position, so naturally if anyone moves to DH he will be the top replacement. Would think Aguilar, Anderson, Cooper would spend a lot of time DHing).

Nationsals: Ryan Zimmerman / Howie Kendrick ( Both could get more ABs against RHP with an extra spot)

Diamondbacks: Jake Lamb / Christian Walker /  Josh Rojas (alleviates some platoon concerns with Lamn and Walker, or maybe Rojas gets a real chance now)

Cubs: Ian Happ (Almora at CF and Happ / Schwarber likely share DH duties)

Reds: All the OFs now have an extra spot (Winker, Akiyama, Senzel, Aquino fighting for 3 spots instead of 2). Would think Aquino is the big winner

Rockies: Sam Hilliard / Garrett Hampson (one extra spot for these guys)

Dodgers: Gavin Lux / Max Muncy / Justin Turner (still a lot of uncertainty but I would think these guys would be prime benefactors. Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez to a lesser extent. Dodgers will probably still rotate everyone)

Brewers: Ryan Braun  / Avisal Garcia / Justin Smoak (These three were slated to share 1 corner OF spot and 1B, now that the DH is open they can all play pretty much full time)

Pirates: ???

Padres: All the OFs now have an extra spot. Myers, Pham on rest days, Cordero, Grishman, Naylor is a log jam. Lagares should make take some time at CF for defense.

Giants: Wilmer Flores (Goes from part time to majority time I would think)

Cardinals: Tommy Edman (Alleviates any concerns of Edman not getting full time PT)

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Let’s say the MLB resumes in May. I’ve heard that the rosters would expand to 40 to 50 active players to accommodate extra depth and minor leaguers. I guess that means the MiLB season would be postponed. If the MLB clubs carry 15-25 extra players, who would that likely be and how would it effect fantasy? As I dynasty owner, I’m curious if that means Gore, Pearson, Carlson or even Franco get a shot on the big club. I also believe we’d see lots of six man rotations and much fewer two start SP weeks. 

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NL pitchers in the Cactus league will be hurt the most of anyone, by far. Far less worried about NL pitchers in the Grapefruit.

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16 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

I also believe we’d see lots of six man rotations and much fewer two start SP weeks. 

Why would teams want to reduce the innings of their top 5 SP's even further? Inning limits shouldn't be an issue anywhere I wouldn't think. Maybe they rotate their 4th/5th/6th starters but I would expect the top few arms to go every 5th day

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Why would teams want to reduce the innings of their top 5 SP's even further? Inning limits shouldn't be an issue anywhere I wouldn't think. Maybe they rotate their 4th/5th/6th starters but I would expect the top few arms to go every 5th day

Just given the ability to carry an extra starter - or five - some managers will take advantage of this like the Dodgers have done for years. There will be far fewer off days so some managers will employ an extra arm here and there. With days off starters are more often going every sixth day in a normal season, so if they’re playing every day, an extra SP or relief day may be in order. I’d look for the Dodgers and Rays to be doing this for sure. The Twins will have rotation depth and will probably not pitch Maeda every fifth exact day. I could see the A’s and Astros doing this. The Mariners have talked about starting the season of upwards of 10 starting pitchers ramping up. Plus, it’s going to be a hot hitters environment and these guys are going to need rest. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver

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If you aren't traditionally aggressive on the wire, this might be a good season to give a try. It's going to be a weird and wild and wonderful season if it happens. 

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No matter what they decide to do, it's going to be banana cakes. I actually look forward to it honestly. Our league welcomes the AL and NL combining for a shortened season. We've always met for an auction for 30 years, but we'll switch to an online version this year of course. Quite excited and hopeful for it happening still. 

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2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

If you aren't traditionally aggressive on the wire, this might be a good season to give a try. It's going to be a weird and wild and wonderful season if it happens. 

factor in impatient owners being more impatient because of short season = buy low trade ops all over.

im actually trying to lengthen my team/talent in some situations to build up some trade chips and depth

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

How does the FL/AZ split mess with AL or NL only leagues?

We are an NL only keeper league. We will go to a separate online NL and AL league start from scratch league this season and see if we want to return to the other next year. It would be a logistical and statistical disaster at this point to try and keep it NL only. 

Edited by MrPositive

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12 hours ago, cs3 said:

Why would teams want to reduce the innings of their top 5 SP's even further? Inning limits shouldn't be an issue anywhere I wouldn't think. Maybe they rotate their 4th/5th/6th starters but I would expect the top few arms to go every 5th day

 

I think an SP1 will still throw more innings per start than other guys.  If there is a short spring training, they might start off just going 4 or 5.

After that, they will still need the same number of days off between starts as before, but the games will be packed closer together.  So they'll mix in some other options and the top of the rotation will get a lower % of the teams starts and innings than usual.  

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13 hours ago, MrPositive said:

We are an NL only keeper league. We will go to a separate online NL and AL league start from scratch league this season and see if we want to return to the other next year. It would be a logistical and statistical disaster at this point to try and keep it NL only. 

 

Curious, but why would it be any different?  You're still limiting the player pool to 15 specific teams, right?  What difference does it make if those teams are technically playing in the Grapefruit or Cactus League?  I mean, interleague play doesn't impact NL only leagues, right?

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Eno Saris had some interesting thoughts on his podcast Rates and Barrels, which is great, by the way.  Said playing the season in AZ would impact heavy breaking ball dependent pitchers more.  So maybe target more of the FB/change guys.

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27 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Eno Saris had some interesting thoughts on his podcast Rates and Barrels, which is great, by the way.  Said playing the season in AZ would impact heavy breaking ball dependent pitchers more.  So maybe target more of the FB/change guys.

Did he list any examples of guys to avoid then? 

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1 hour ago, BigPapi44 said:

Did he list any examples of guys to avoid then? 

 

I've already drafted, so I wasn't paying super particular attention.  I think he said some good FB/CH guys would be Castillo, Giolito, Paddack, Stras and that's all I can remember off the top of my head.

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no idea if the NL DH thing will happen or not but it's fun to think about. jumping off from @Sidearmer's post with some team-specific thoughts of my own -

On 4/10/2020 at 12:39 PM, Sidearmer said:

 

This will be the one year MLB can get away with changing a ton of rules and the old school traditionalists won't complain.

Some guys that will get a boost with a DH in NL:

Mets: JD Davis / Dom Smith / Yoenis Cespedes (JD and Dom terrible fielders, Yoenis will need breaks for his legs)

Braves: Austin Riley (probably goes from part time to majority time)

Phillies: Andrew McCutchen / Roman Quinn (one more spot for playing time for Quinn, rest for McCutchen off injury)

Marlins: Jon Berti (he's the top back up at every position, so naturally if anyone moves to DH he will be the top replacement. Would think Aguilar, Anderson, Cooper would spend a lot of time DHing).

Nationsals: Ryan Zimmerman / Howie Kendrick ( Both could get more ABs against RHP with an extra spot)

Diamondbacks: Jake Lamb / Christian Walker /  Josh Rojas (alleviates some platoon concerns with Lamn and Walker, or maybe Rojas gets a real chance now)

Cubs: Ian Happ (Almora at CF and Happ / Schwarber likely share DH duties)

Reds: All the OFs now have an extra spot (Winker, Akiyama, Senzel, Aquino fighting for 3 spots instead of 2). Would think Aquino is the big winner

Rockies: Sam Hilliard / Garrett Hampson (one extra spot for these guys)

Dodgers: Gavin Lux / Max Muncy / Justin Turner (still a lot of uncertainty but I would think these guys would be prime benefactors. Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez to a lesser extent. Dodgers will probably still rotate everyone)

Brewers: Ryan Braun  / Avisal Garcia / Justin Smoak (These three were slated to share 1 corner OF spot and 1B, now that the DH is open they can all play pretty much full time)

Pirates: ???

Padres: All the OFs now have an extra spot. Myers, Pham on rest days, Cordero, Grishman, Naylor is a log jam. Lagares should make take some time at CF for defense.

Giants: Wilmer Flores (Goes from part time to majority time I would think)

Cardinals: Tommy Edman (Alleviates any concerns of Edman not getting full time PT)

 

dbacks: lamb probably benefits a lot but don't forget about kevin cron, who's basically a second copy of christian walker only with even more insane AAA numbers

cubs: don't disagree with the basic take but could also see victor caratini sneaking into the mix, and it would be pretty easy for backup catcher PAs plus some DH time to make him a viable C1 play in deeper leagues

reds: it really smelled like aquino wasn't even making the team. it would benefit winker and senzel a lot, and i think even vanmeter is ahead of aquino right now

dodgers: lux, muncy and turner were all starters already, unless they service timed lux. it probably adds some security for lux. no doubt helps keekay and taylor. but the guy that i could see really claiming the spot is matt beaty. edwin rios is also there. but beaty had a really good run last year

cardinals: great for edman, also don't overlook rangel ravelo, who they've been grooming to take the jose martinez role

 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

Curious, but why would it be any different?  You're still limiting the player pool to 15 specific teams, right?  What difference does it make if those teams are technically playing in the Grapefruit or Cactus League?  I mean, interleague play doesn't impact NL only leagues, right?

Well for starters, there's talk of the MLB increasing rosters to accommodate for a shortened season. If that occurs, prospects that wouldn't have made teams will now make teams, rendering FAAB, trades for prospects that happened prior a nightmare. As well, we cut down rosters way before all this occurred and teams dropped guys that they wouldn't have with this shortened season format. Do we go back and redo the roster stuff? It's the keeper league portion and not it being NL only that creates a whirlwind of headaches. We also do a live auction and it's just sooo much easier (and 10 times faster) to do a quick pickem online for a season. Regardless, as I  mentioned in the other thread, in light of the new news of 100's returning that had been released from hospitals as negative, and now are positive again, I just can't see baseball happening this year. Not trying to be a debby downer, but logistically and consciously, I don't see how it can happen in the time frame with that kind of new news.

Edited by MrPositive

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4 hours ago, MrPositive said:

Well for starters, there's talk of the MLB increasing rosters to accommodate for a shortened season. If that occurs, prospects that wouldn't have made teams will now make teams, rendering FAAB, trades for prospects that happened prior a nightmare. As well, we cut down rosters way before all this occurred and teams dropped guys that they wouldn't have with this shortened season format. Do we go back and redo the roster stuff? It's the keeper league portion and not it being NL only that creates a whirlwind of headaches. We also do a live auction and it's just sooo much easier (and 10 times faster) to do a quick pickem online for a season

 

Also sounding like they'd add a DH position to the NL for the shortened season. Could also be a headache for NL keeper leagues.

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12 hours ago, MrPositive said:

Well for starters, there's talk of the MLB increasing rosters to accommodate for a shortened season. If that occurs, prospects that wouldn't have made teams will now make teams, rendering FAAB, trades for prospects that happened prior a nightmare. As well, we cut down rosters way before all this occurred and teams dropped guys that they wouldn't have with this shortened season format. Do we go back and redo the roster stuff? It's the keeper league portion and not it being NL only that creates a whirlwind of headaches. We also do a live auction and it's just sooo much easier (and 10 times faster) to do a quick pickem online for a season. Regardless, as I  mentioned in the other thread, in light of the new news of 100's returning that had been released from hospitals as negative, and now are positive again, I just can't see baseball happening this year. Not trying to be a debby downer, but logistically and consciously, I don't see how it can happen in the time frame with that kind of new news.

 

Oh, I thought you were saying it would be difficult specifically because your league is NL only.

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8 hours ago, TennisDude said:

 

Also sounding like they'd add a DH position to the NL for the shortened season. Could also be a headache for NL keeper leagues.

 

Again, I don't really see why.  Just means some guys will probably get more ABs relatively speaking.  I mean, the entire season would be wonky, I think a few guys getting a few more PAs at DH would be relatively not impactful.

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My short season strategy is to prepare for the 2021 season

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Lets assume baseball agrees with an 80 game plan for those who play in head to head leagues how will you handle the schedule? Will you just cut the amount of weeks in half. Normally in my league we have 25 or 26 weeks. It seems pretty lame to have a 13 week season. Any creative solutions people have been thinking of?

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