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Short Season Fantasy Strategy

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44 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

Lets assume baseball agrees with an 80 game plan for those who play in head to head leagues how will you handle the schedule? Will you just cut the amount of weeks in half. Normally in my league we have 25 or 26 weeks. It seems pretty lame to have a 13 week season. Any creative solutions people have been thinking of?

 

in my league we've been playing with the idea of running simultaneous matchups - playing two different opponents in the same week

it'd be pretty weird in a lot of ways, but, this year is weird, just gotta do the best we can with what we've got

most league hosts won't offer this, of course, but with some offline tracking you could probably DIY it and maybe manually set your playoff brackets accordingly

we're weird because we run on our own custom website so we can do whatever we want

otherwise all you can really do is either just play the 13 weeks or cut the week in half and play 3-day matchups. but that'd be basically just flipping a coin

 

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On 4/12/2020 at 3:28 PM, wily mo said:

no idea if the NL DH thing will happen or not but it's fun to think about. jumping off from @Sidearmer's post with some team-specific thoughts of my own -

 

dbacks: lamb probably benefits a lot but don't forget about kevin cron, who's basically a second copy of christian walker only with even more insane AAA numbers

cubs: don't disagree with the basic take but could also see victor caratini sneaking into the mix, and it would be pretty easy for backup catcher PAs plus some DH time to make him a viable C1 play in deeper leagues

reds: it really smelled like aquino wasn't even making the team. it would benefit winker and senzel a lot, and i think even vanmeter is ahead of aquino right now

dodgers: lux, muncy and turner were all starters already, unless they service timed lux. it probably adds some security for lux. no doubt helps keekay and taylor. but the guy that i could see really claiming the spot is matt beaty. edwin rios is also there. but beaty had a really good run last year

cardinals: great for edman, also don't overlook rangel ravelo, who they've been grooming to take the jose martinez role

 

 

for the dodgers here, i totally forgot that AJ pollock existed. he's probably the biggest beneficiary, unless he continues to just totally suck

 

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I’ve heard some banter about a short season lacking a trade deadline or it not being at midsason and toward the end. I don’t quite understand how you could not have some deadline. But it makes you wonder what that does for guys who were likely mid-season trade candidates like Matthew Boyd. Is he now likely to stay on the Tigers? Are teams really going to be as invested in trying to win an asterisk title? Are some teams more likely to make a run at a short season title because their window is closing or they’re small market also-rans like the Rays or the A’s - that will take any title they can get? Are teams less likely to make trades due to all the other logistical concerns already baked in as existing challenges? What can we speculate on and who is likely to be affected?

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21 hours ago, wily mo said:

 

in my league we've been playing with the idea of running simultaneous matchups - playing two different opponents in the same week

it'd be pretty weird in a lot of ways.....

My fantasy football league has done this for the past decade. It’s a little weird at first, but becomes second nature pretty quick. We did it because it just always seemed like the second highest scoring team of the week was playing the top team and losing, and the 2nd to lowest scoring team was playing the lowest scoring and winning. “Double headers” helped normalize things a little.  Our website supports multiple opponents, so it wasn’t hard to implement at all. 

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Sounds like 80 games, expanded rosters, and no minor leagues is the top scenario now. I still can;t figure out how to treat prospects. Guys like Nate Pearson, Dylan Carlson, etc. who were guaranteed call ups after Super Two. Is there a scenario where these guys are either held back to not accrue any service or brought up immediately? To me this is the biggest challenge because there are a handful of prospects that could go from last round fodder to mid round valu very easily just by having a guaranteed spot early on.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Sounds like 80 games, expanded rosters, and no minor leagues is the top scenario now. I still can;t figure out how to treat prospects. Guys like Nate Pearson, Dylan Carlson, etc. who were guaranteed call ups after Super Two. Is there a scenario where these guys are either held back to not accrue any service or brought up immediately? To me this is the biggest challenge because there are a handful of prospects that could go from last round fodder to mid round valu very easily just by having a guaranteed spot early on.

I recall seeing that one game will automatically lock in a year of service time. So in that scenario, there’s really no reason to wait at all if your intention is to bring up that player at any point in the 80 games. It’s pretty much all or nothing. And, if a team believes the best place for their player to continue to develop is the MLB versus some ragtag minor league complex, they’ll want to put them on the expanded MLB roster. With so much MILB uncertainty, I could see many top pitching prospects making the big club from day one and more teams using 6-man rotations to deal with a tight schedule that could have a bunch of doubleheaders. Pitchers need to continue to build up their innings in as part of their development and have already begun to lose precious time with so much of this season lost. That said, I see guys like Pearson and Gore as very possibly making the big league rosters from day 1. 

Edited by TheForearmShiver
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So this is me shooting from the hip, but there are a few things that come to my mind...

If there are no MILB games this year, won't teams be more likely to call up their more proximal blue chip prospects?

Within that, we are used to the contenders rushing their prospects a little more than teams with nothing to lose. I think that could be a little different now.  The bad teams might as well go ahead and use their best prospects if things shake out in the direction they seem to be going.  Why wouldn't Detroit go ahead and throw out Mize, Skubal and Manning.  If Baltimore calls up Adley then why not at least let him DH and catch occasionally...same thing with Bart in San Francisco.  In short, I just think things will be very odd and we're going to have to stay on our toes and be flexible.

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12 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

I recall seeing that one game will automatically lock in a year of service time. So in that scenario, there’s really no reason to wait at all if your intention is to bring up that player at any point in the 80 games. It’s pretty much all or nothing. And, if a team believes the best place for their player to continue to develop is the MLB versus some ragtag minor league complex, they’ll want to put them on the expanded MLB roster. With so much MILB uncertainty, I could see many top pitching prospects making the big club from day one and more teams using 6-man rotations to deal with a tight schedule that could have a bunch of doubleheaders. Pitchers need to continue to build up their innings in as part of their development and have already begun to lose precious time with so much of this season lost. That said, I see guys like Pearson and Gore as very possibly making the big league rosters from day 1. 

It should be pointed out that the current agreement revised in March was that a prorated service time clock would be used. 
 

At that juncture, MLB for 2020 was willing to grant a full year of service time at 130 days rather than the usual 172. If the season doesn't last long, then MLB would prorate downward

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9 minutes ago, Coach George said:

So this is me shooting from the hip, but there are a few things that come to my mind...

If there are no MILB games this year, won't teams be more likely to call up their more proximal blue chip prospects?

Within that, we are used to the contenders rushing their prospects a little more than teams with nothing to lose. I think that could be a little different now.  The bad teams might as well go ahead and use their best prospects if things shake out in the direction they seem to be going.  Why wouldn't Detroit go ahead and throw out Mize, Skubal and Manning.  If Baltimore calls up Adley then why not at least let him DH and catch occasionally...same thing with Bart in San Francisco.  In short, I just think things will be very odd and we're going to have to stay on our toes and be flexible.

I’m thinking the MLBPA works something in advantageous for the players like zero service time accrued or some modification that requires a ton of starts to accrue the year of service. 

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Just now, TheForearmShiver said:

I’m thinking the MLBPA works something in advantageous for the players like zero service time accrued or some modification that requires a ton of starts to accrue the year of service. 

 

There are definitely plenty of unanswered questions.  I just wonder if there is a way to find an advantage in fantasy, but unfortunately, all we can do is speculate at this point.

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20 minutes ago, Coach George said:

 

There are definitely plenty of unanswered questions.  I just wonder if there is a way to find an advantage in fantasy, but unfortunately, all we can do is speculate at this point.

Advantages are going to be a lot harder to find this year. Shifting from a 162-game fantasy season to an 82-game season is the equivalent of going from a deep stack poker tournament to a turbo tournament. A 162-game season is a long grind and better fantasy players will have an advantage and skill will often win out. With only 82 games, variance will come into play more so than ever before. Injuries will play a much bigger role in deciding fantasy standings. A two month injury to your first round pick would normally mean he misses about 50 out of 162 games (31% of the season). Now, with the possibility of more doubleheaders and fewer rest days that could end up being 54 out of 82 games (66% of the season). I think this season will be more appealing to the casual fantasy player, those players who normally lose interest by July or August. On the bright side, maybe it’ll draw some new players into the hobby.

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still think balance is more important than ever just trying to not get buried early and tread water in h2h

and by balance im talking about stars and scrubs.  with a 162 game season you have time to figure things out and find decent f/a to fill holes and some useful sp to patchwork together a staff for h2h playoffs. now you have to manage week 2 week with less leash. dont think i will be punting saves like i always do  for my last handful drafts.

 

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Are they still planning to shorten the games to 7 innings under this proposed deal?

I can't find anything on it. 

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1 hour ago, Cdub2k said:

Are they still planning to shorten the games to 7 innings under this proposed deal?

I can't find anything on it. 

 

That would just be for doubleheaders, potentially

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So now that it is a 60 games season, in 6x6 roto formats that use wins would you adjust your roster to include more middlemen with strong ratios than starting pitchers, or would you have your roster set pitching wise like you would normally due if it was a normal 162 game season?

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12 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

So now that it is a 60 games season, in 6x6 roto formats that use wins would you adjust your roster to include more middlemen with strong ratios than starting pitchers, or would you have your roster set pitching wise like you would normally due if it was a normal 162 game season?

I run middlemen heavily anyway, as I like the ratio stabilization in addition to the stolen wins.  But my league has daily moves and only P slots, so that helps.

But yeah, I would think there's a lot of additional opportunity to grab vulture wins this season especially as we get started and SP are getting pulled earlier.  I could see it leveling out 30 games in, but that's half this season.

I think I'd try to buy maybe 2-3 tip top SP and fill in the staff with RP if I could get away with it.  Stellar ratios, and if your 3 SP are 200k in normal season guys, you should be in the ballpark in total K too.

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On 3/27/2020 at 8:39 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

If it happens, a short season favors aggressive owners.  You aren't going to be able to hold onto that hurt or struggling player as long anymore.  Making big trades early to plug holes will be more crucial.  Streaming becomes more viable esp if they have multiple double headers a week.  You aren't going to really be able to sit around and be patient.  


I haven’t changed much from late March.  I’d bump up aces a bit.  Managers aren’t taking guys like scherzer, kershaw, and deGrom out after 3-4 innings.  Probably take established/war horse closers if they drop.  There’s not going to be enough time in the season to stash and hit on set up guys next in line.  Dynasty leagues, Im keeping 2021 in mind even if I’m contending.

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6 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:


I haven’t changed much from late March.  I’d bump up aces a bit.  Managers aren’t taking guys like scherzer, kershaw, and deGrom out after 3-4 innings.  Probably take established/war horse closers if they drop.  There’s not going to be enough time in the season to stash and hit on set up guys next in line.  Dynasty leagues, Im keeping 2021 in mind even if I’m contending.

 

I'm in a H2H Dynasty and certainly looking at 2021. Anything is possible in this 60 game season and I will adjust as needed but not moving big pieces for the future. 

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On 5/10/2020 at 1:24 PM, wily mo said:

 

in my league we've been playing with the idea of running simultaneous matchups - playing two different opponents in the same week

it'd be pretty weird in a lot of ways, but, this year is weird, just gotta do the best we can with what we've got

most league hosts won't offer this, of course, but with some offline tracking you could probably DIY it and maybe manually set your playoff brackets accordingly

we're weird because we run on our own custom website so we can do whatever we want

otherwise all you can really do is either just play the 13 weeks or cut the week in half and play 3-day matchups. but that'd be basically just flipping a coin

 

 

Why not just play against everyone every week?

Let's say you're in a 12 team league and you have the high score in week 1. Your record for that week would will 11-0. If you had the 2nd High score your record would be 10-1. 3rd High score 9-2. And on down the line it goes to the last place finisher for the week 0-11. This format is usually found in Fantasy Football leagues but I think this format would make things a bit more simpler in this shortened baseball season. It's kind of like ROTO but it still has a H2H aspect to it which people like. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Numerous podcast hosts have discussed running multiple H2H matchups weekly to increase sample size, almost exclusively to reduce variance and promote "true outcomes." It makes sense.

I am finding it really hard to make pre-season roster moves. Having added recovering guys like Judge/Stanton/Rich Hill, and youngsters like M Gore, made it hard to add guys like Zach Britton ... on top of that I have an IL full of guys ready to replace slow starts. This is where the aggression comes in to play. Do you replace your known SP4-5 with a guy who could save 8 games? Who even knows when Chapman comes back? Too many variables.

This is a good season to just say "to heck with convention" take some chances, and learn from your mistakes. You just might find some new angles and advantages.

Edited by rando

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My strategy on closers is usually to avoid them during the draft, hunt them during the season by frequently monitoring the closers thread here and closer monkey.  But this year with only 60 games there may not be time enough to ride the closer carousel.  I’m going to have to consider saving my auction bucks for good established closers or just forking the category.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

My strategy on closers is usually to avoid them during the draft, hunt them during the season by frequently monitoring the closers thread here and closer monkey.  But this year with only 60 games there may not be time enough to ride the closer carousel.  I’m going to have to consider saving my auction bucks for good established closers or just forking the category.

I do the same thing and won had the most saves in one league last year without drafting one

 

These monthly thread also help out a ton

 

 

Edited by hockeyfan77

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36 minutes ago, hockeyfan77 said:

I do the same thing and won had the most saves in one league last year without drafting one

 

These monthly thread also help out a ton

 

 

You going to risk it again?

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