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Cooper Kupp 2020 Outlook


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Kupp had 94 receptions for 1161 yards and 10 TDs in 2019, solidifying himself as Goff's #1 receiver and endzone target.  He had a couple massive games and a couple complete duds where the Rams' offense couldn't even move the ball. The 10 TDs will be tough to repeat. Kupp's early ADP is around 26 overall, so there's not a ton of value baked into the price. Anybody think another top-10 WR finish is the cards for Kupp?

 

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Drop. City

No he didn't. He said that he would rather have Kupp on his dynasty fantasy roster, while saying nothing about one player being better than the other. You're putting a lot of words into peoples'

Man I've been looking all over the goddamn internet and finally found the Julio Jones thread. Would be nice if the mods fixed the title though

32 minutes ago, smash10033 said:

Is there anyone concerned for 2020 ?   I always secure Kupp and at the end of the year it was the most frustrating thing i ever watched.    I saw him used as a blocker more than a pass catcher down the stretch.   

I’m not - he had an awesome season last year, is now playing for his next contract, and benefits from the dream-team coaching duo of McVay and O’Connell?  He’s their most productive wideout, and I’m not sure it’s even close.  Plus, I’m sure the Rams will make some moves to buttress their O-line.

If anything, seek to profit if he drops at all.  

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I’m not - he had an awesome season last year, is now playing for his next contract, and benefits from the dream-team coaching duo of McVay and O’Connell?  He’s their most productive wideout, and I’m not sure it’s even close.  Plus, I’m sure the Rams will make some moves to buttress their O-line.

If anything, seek to profit if he drops at all.  

He didn’t really out produce Woods by much. Woods is a huge piece of the offense as well.

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20 minutes ago, Gmen07 said:

He didn’t really out produce Woods by much. Woods is a huge piece of the offense as well.

I mean, he outscored Woods by 8 receiving TDs.    I’d consider that a hefty out-production.

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I'm conflicted.

On the one hand, Goff looks for him in the end zone. 

On the other, I suspect the Rams are going to have a worse offense than market expectations because the line still stinks and the running game is questionable.  If you take the TDs away, once defenses started concentrating on him in the second half he averaged for 4.5 catches for 46 yards over 8 games.

 

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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

On the other, I suspect the Rams are going to have a worse offense than market expectations because the line still stinks and the running game is questionable.

Both could easily improve through the draft though.

 

1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

If you take the TDs away

 

Hypothetically taking X away from a player is never a good argument, whether it's big plays or TDs. Production is production.

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Yeah I don't see why taking players away from an offense is a good thing for a guy whose value is pretty TD dependent.

i think its wise to assume the TD numbers are coming down.  But I'm not totally sure i'd say he's TD dependent.  Receptions was top 9 across the league and targets where top 15 or so i believe.  Catch % is healthy as well.  It will be interesting to see where he goes come draft time.  Im not sure the Cooks departure does much for me either way though TBH.  Cooks wasn't good last year no matter how you slice it.  I still expect Kupp to be a go to target for this offense, along with Woods. 

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Just now, BlakeP42 said:

i think its wise to assume the TD numbers are coming down.  But I'm not totally sure i'd say he's TD dependent.  Receptions was top 9 across the league and targets where top 15 or so i believe.  Catch % is healthy as well.  It will be interesting to see where he goes come draft time.  Im not sure the Cooks departure does much for me either way though TBH.  Cooks wasn't good last year no matter how you slice it.  I still expect Kupp to be a go to target for this offense, along with Woods. 

In the second half he didn't have over 100 yards in a game.

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

In the second half he didn't have over 100 yards in a game.

that is correct.  Im simply not convinced that i can look at just those games and feel like that is 100% my determining factor for his 2020 projections and what his best value will be.  He did play more games in 2019 then just the second half lol.  I'm not totally sure i follow the logic behind turning a blind eye to his overall production for the year.   If you expect his targets and receptions to drop off drastically, then i think there is plenty of concern ahead. Its fair to wonder where his receptions land in 2020.   I'm not totally sure yet as far as my feelings for Kupps targets and production.  The loss of Cooks doesn't sway me negatively, that i know.  I'd also like to see what the Rams pull from this deep WR draft ahead as well.  So time will tell and we obviously have plenty of that ahead unfortunately :)

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5 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

that is correct.  Im simply not convinced that i can look at just those games and feel like that is 100% my determining factor for his 2020 projections and what his best value will be.  He did play more games in 2019 then just the second half lol.  I'm not totally sure i follow the logic behind turning a blind eye to his overall production for the year.   If you expect his targets and receptions to drop off drastically, then i think there is plenty of concern ahead. Its fair to wonder where his receptions land in 2020.   I'm not totally sure yet as far as my feelings for Kupps targets and production.  The loss of Cooks doesn't sway me negatively, that i know.  I'd also like to see what the Rams pull from this deep WR draft ahead as well.  So time will tell and we obviously have plenty of that ahead unfortunately :)

I think it's possible at least that the second half results were a result of increased defensive attention because he was the only thing that was working on a much hyped but mostly dysfunctional offense.

The interior blocking eroded to the point where most of McVay's stretch plays were ineffective because of interior penetration.  As you mention, Cooks wasn't helping.

The defense was good enough to get them turnovers, but they've lost some pieces there as well.

So now that they've lost Gurley, Matthews, Cooks, Courtney-Roby, etc. and haven't made any big acquisitions to offset, the interior line is still bad, I see this as probably a pretty bad team.

In short?  My expectation of Rams offensive players will probably be lower than perceived market value.  But you're right, we're going to have to see.

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My understanding was that Kupp lost playing time in the second half of 2019 because McVay wanted to run, and Kupp's run blocking is below par.  Perhaps he will improve in that area this offseason.

As for the Rams being bad, I agree that it seems they will be worse.  Bad teams are generally forced to pass more, however.  It could end up being good for Kupp.

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26 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

In the second half he didn't have over 100 yards in a game.


Because Rams were terrible , it’s not all on Kupp . Context is everything . In general Rams regressed major in all facets of the game in 2019 compared to 2018 . Give me more targets , I’m happy

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Overall, I think Cooper Kupp is gonna be just fine in 2020, but only because of Cooks’ departure. Still, I feel like no one is discussing the fact that the Rams had a whole new look on offense coming out of their bye week in 2019. The main concern for Kupp’s output is the fact that the Rams ran a lot more 12 personnel in the second half of the season. McVay probably made that switch to address the lackluster blocking of the O line. I see some people were saying you can’t just evaluate the second half and ignore the first half. Well I say it’s smarter to do exactly that than talk about his season long stats.

 

Over the 2019 season, Kupp’s stats were amazing. He exploded for the first half of the season. The second half of the season was a bit of a different story and he saw a huge drop off in opportunities. He was targeted much less and his total yardage took a major hit. He averaged just under 11 targets and 99 receiving yards per game in games 1-8. After the bye week (games 10-17), he averaged just under 6 targets and about 46 yards per game. That’s a big drop off, but his value was being held up by touchdowns. He had a TD in each of the last 5 games of their season, which was great. But as people are saying, we should expect a little regression since 10 TDs is on the higher side.
 

All of this would be a huge cause for concern for his 2020 outlook had Cooks not been traded. 12 personnel got complicated because Kupp was seeing less opportunities on the field at times in favor of Cooks, since there was only 2 WR’s on the field a lot of the time, likely for field stretching purposes. Now, Kupp can easily reclaim that role and flourish even in 12 personnel sets. So I’m optimistic about him coming into the 2020 season, especially based on his ADP. The only reason I mentioned everything about the second half of the season is because I feel like a lot of people had confidence in him even if Cooks stayed on the team, but realistically I think he would’ve been a low floor, decent ceiling kind of guy whose ADP was not justified had that trade not happened.

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7 minutes ago, Shizzy35 said:

Overall, I think Cooper Kupp is gonna be just fine in 2020, but only because of Cooks’ departure. Still, I feel like no one is discussing the fact that the Rams had a whole new look on offense coming out of their bye week in 2019. The main concern for Kupp’s output is the fact that the Rams ran a lot more 12 personnel in the second half of the season. McVay probably made that switch to address the lackluster blocking of the O line. I see some people were saying you can’t just evaluate the second half and ignore the first half. Well I say it’s smarter to do exactly that than talk about his season long stats.

 

Over the 2019 season, Kupp’s stats were amazing. He exploded for the first half of the season. The second half of the season was a bit of a different story and he saw a huge drop off in opportunities. He was targeted much less and his total yardage took a major hit. He averaged just under 11 targets and 99 receiving yards per game in games 1-8. After the bye week (games 10-17), he averaged just under 6 targets and about 46 yards per game. That’s a big drop off, but his value was being held up by touchdowns. He had a TD in each of the last 5 games of their season, which was great. But as people are saying, we should expect a little regression since 10 TDs is on the higher side.
 

All of this would be a huge cause for concern for his 2020 outlook had Cooks not been traded. 12 personnel got complicated because Kupp was seeing less opportunities on the field at times in favor of Cooks, since there was only 2 WR’s on the field a lot of the time, likely for field stretching purposes. Now, Kupp can easily reclaim that role and flourish even in 12 personnel sets. So I’m optimistic about him coming into the 2020 season, especially based on his ADP. The only reason I mentioned everything about the second half of the season is because I feel like a lot of people had confidence in him even if Cooks stayed on the team, but realistically I think he would’ve been a low floor, decent ceiling kind of guy whose ADP was not justified had that trade not happened.

Solid first post here :)

Edited by Boudewijn
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