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Cooper Kupp 2020 Outlook

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Kupp should not have changed his jersey number from 18 to 10.  It seems to have adversely affected him.  

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But Kupp is better than Julio Jones in the short and long term...

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59 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

But Kupp is better than Julio Jones in the short and long term...

I mean, Kupp has more fantasy points than Jones this year and is several years younger,  so... yes. 

"But Jones has missed games due to injury".

Exactly. And he constantly looks like his hamstring is about to tear off.

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I mean, Kupp has more fantasy points than Jones this year and is several years younger,  so... yes. 

"But Jones has missed games due to injury".

Exactly. And he constantly looks like his hamstring is about to tear off.

Are you...arguing with yourself?

The Rams are a running team now.  McVay quite sensibly hides his QB when possible.  

It is just not going to happen for Kupp this year.  Another terrible contract given out by Les Snead.

I think fantasy players can go ahead and move on to greener pastures.

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4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Are you...arguing with yourself?

The Rams are a running team now.  McVay quite sensibly hides his QB when possible.  

It is just not going to happen for Kupp this year.  Another terrible contract given out by Les Snead.

I think fantasy players can go ahead and move on to greener pastures.

In their 7 games, the Rams have played 5 top ten defenses by fantasy points allowed to WRs. In their final 9 games, they only have 2 such games. They also play the Seahawks twice, who give up the most fantasy points to WRs of any team in the league, as well as the Cardinals twice and the Jets who also hemorrhage points to WRs.

Despite the brutal schedule so far, Kupp is still on pace for about 85 receptions and over 1000 yards.

I'll take the overs on that pace.

So 90 for 1100. If that's bad, I don't know what good looks like. 

 

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I hope you are correct.  I really like Kupp as a player.  Sounds like you have a good sales pitch to move Kupp to a rival team manager who thinks he is buying low.

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6 hours ago, street sharks said:

Yikes man he might be my drop with bye week hell this week and next week. He's hard to trust.

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39 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

In their 7 games, the Rams have played 5 top ten defenses by fantasy points allowed to WRs. In their final 9 games, they only have 2 such games. They also play the Seahawks twice, who give up the most fantasy points to WRs of any team in the league, as well as the Cardinals twice and the Jets who also hemorrhage points to WRs.

Despite the brutal schedule so far, Kupp is still on pace for about 85 receptions and over 1000 yards.

I'll take the overs on that pace.

So 90 for 1100. If that's bad, I don't know what good looks like. 

 

"Top 10 defenses by fantasy points allowed to WRs" is a misleading metric.  Look at the Jets.  We can all agree they're trash, right?  But for this specific metric, they rank as the 10th best.  It makes sense.  Opposing teams simply run the ball down the Jets' throat....there's no need to rely on the pass.  

The Rams play the Jets week 15 during the fantasy playoffs.  I actually think this is a weak matchup for Kupp.  The Rams should win easily, and by then, Akers should be healthy.  I can see the Rams rotating between Henderson, Brown, and Akers to kill the clock.

The 2nd game against Arizona is week 17 which is irrelevant for most fantasy leagues.  

But week 16 at Seattle should be great for Kupp.

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2 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

"Top 10 defenses by fantasy points allowed to WRs" is a misleading metric.  Look at the Jets.  We can all agree they're trash, right?  But for this specific metric, they rank as the 10th best.  It makes sense.  Opposing teams simply run the ball down the Jets' throat....there's no need to rely on the pass.  

The Rams play the Jets week 15 during the fantasy playoffs.  I actually think this is a weak matchup for Kupp.  The Rams should win easily, and by then, Akers should be healthy.  I can see the Rams rotating between Henderson, Brown, and Akers to kill the clock.

The 2nd game against Arizona is week 17 which is irrelevant for most fantasy leagues.  

But week 16 at Seattle should be great for Kupp.

The Jets are 24th worst. I have no idea where you're getting that stat.

Good point about week 17, still 6 of his 8 remaining weeks are plus matchups.

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2 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

https://www.footballdb.com/fantasy-football/points-allowed.html?pos=WR

Why do you still think Jets are a plus matchup?

I don't understand what this is sorted by. The Jets are listed above a bunch of teams they've clearly given up more points than...

Fantasy Pros has them ranked 22nd against WRs in half PPR. My MFL league (full PPR) has them ranked 24th. 

Again, I don't understand what that link is trying to show me. 

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5 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I don't understand what this is sorted by. The Jets are listed above a bunch of teams they've clearly given up more points than...

Fantasy Pros has them ranked 22nd against WRs in half PPR. My MFL league (full PPR) has them ranked 24th. 

Again, I don't understand what that link is trying to show me. 

 

Looks like its sorted by game averages.  Gross points are misleading because of bye weeks.  

Can you provide a link to your stats?

Edited by wekko368

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1 minute ago, wekko368 said:

 

Looks like its sorted by game averages.  Gross points are misleading because of bye weeks.  

Can you provide a link to your stats?

This is averages, half PPR. The Jets are ranked 22nd. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/points-allowed.php

Those rankings on your link are just wonky. Look at the numbers. For example, the Jets are giving up more receptions, more yards, and the same number of TDs as the Chargers, yet the rankings somehow think they are giving up FEWER fantasy points. Huh?

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14 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

This is averages, half PPR. The Jets are ranked 22nd. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/points-allowed.php

Those rankings on your link are just wonky. Look at the numbers. For example, the Jets are giving up more receptions, more yards, and the same number of TDs as the Chargers, yet the rankings somehow think they are giving up FEWER fantasy points. Huh?

 

Again, it's looking at averages.  Of course the Jets have allowed more total receptions/yards than the Chargers.  They've played 7 games while the Chargers have played 6.

Also, if I'm reading it right, your fantasypros link has the Jets ranked the 11th best in terms of points allowed to WRs.

Best is Washington followed by Rams, Bears, Panthers, 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens, Buccaneers, Bills, Chargers, and then the Jets.

Or am I reading it wrong?

Edited by wekko368

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43 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

Again, it's looking at averages.  Of course the Jets have allowed more total receptions/yards than the Chargers.  They've played 7 games while the Chargers have played 6.

Also, if I'm reading it right, your fantasypros link has the Jets ranked the 11th best in terms of points allowed to WRs.

Best is Washington followed by Rams, Bears, Panthers, 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens, Buccaneers, Bills, Chargers, and then the Jets.

Or am I reading it wrong?

They're 11th to TEs. The rankings come before the position group, not after. 

And your link has them giving up more receptions and yards PER GAME than the chargers. It's bizarre. 

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

They're 11th to TEs. The rankings come before the position group, not after. 

And your link has them giving up more receptions and yards PER GAME than the chargers. It's bizarre. 

 

I know the rank comes before the position group.  Instead of assuming I'm wrong, why don't you first re-check your source?

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9 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

I know the rank comes before the position group.  Instead of assuming I'm wrong, why don't you first re-check your source?

Oh. I clearly didn't get enough sleep last night. My bad. 

Weird then, that MFL has them 24th for my league. 

https://www55.myfantasyleague.com/2020/options?L=54129&O=243&TEAM=NYJ&POS=WR

Edit- This has them giving up over 35 points per game to WRs, which is much different than the other data. Are they just that much worse in full PPR?

Edited by ajs723

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To put a bow on this messy conversation (totally my fault)....

 

The Jets are the 28th ranked pass defense by DVOA. Only Atlanta, Seattle, LV, and Jacksonville are worse. 

I get that teams get up so big on the lowly Jets that perhaps they don't have to throw late in the game, but it's still hard for me to view the Jets as a "bad" matchup. 

Regardless, my original point is that the Rams schedule is about to open up, so things should get better for Kupp and Woods.

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The issue for Kupp is less the defenses he goes up against, and more the offenses the Rams face.  He has 2 outlier games this season, one in each direction: at Buffalo and at San Fran.  I don't know what happened against the 49ers, it was bad.  Against the Bills he had a big game in a shootout.

Dallas, Philly, NY, Washington, and Chicago had offenses that couldn't do much against LA's stout D.  Dallas particularly has a terrible run defense, and Philly couldn't stop them either.

LA is going to grind and rely on their defense when they can.  They've been able to do that in all but 1 game really.  Now Buffalo also has poor run defense, but their offense was able to put up points quickly and get out to a lead, forcing LA to open up and get into a 2nd half shootout - and Kupp blew up in that situation.

He's not a dependable week to week wr2.  But he'll have is spots.  The remaining schedule through week 13 includes Miami, Seattle, Tampa, SF again, and Arizona.  Those are all offenses that should put up points and make LA try to keep up.  After that, LA gets NE and the Jets before week 16 against Seattle.  

Those Seahawks games should be high output spots.  Miami, who has a raw rookie corner, who knows.  Arizona and TB should be big games.  NE and the Jets are less promising. San Fran is a toss up.

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Good receivers tend to have good games most of the time regardless of the opponent and the gameflow.  The NFL is still a passing league.

My concern with Kupp is his lack of high end athleticism.  He is a FCS product and smaller and slower than your typical NFL wide receiver.  He is a route running technician and is a very smart player, but he does not even have the short area quickness of a Landry or Edelman.

During Kupp's rookie year, the NFL was facing McVay's system for the first time, and had to devote major resources to stopping peak Gurley but also Brandin Cooks on the outside and Robert Woods and the TEs.

Now that Kupp is getting more defensive attention, he is not putting up nearly as many big games as he used to.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Good receivers tend to have good games most of the time regardless of the opponent and the gameflow.  The NFL is still a passing league.

My concern with Kupp is his lack of high end athleticism.  He is a FCS product and smaller and slower than your typical NFL wide receiver.  He is a route running technician and is a very smart player, but he does not even have the short area quickness of a Landry or Edelman.

During Kupp's rookie year, the NFL was facing McVay's system for the first time, and had to devote major resources to stopping peak Gurley but also Brandin Cooks on the outside and Robert Woods and the TEs.

Now that Kupp is getting more defensive attention, he is not putting up nearly as many big games as he used to.

 

He does have excellent YAC tho. 

But basically we have a WR3 on our hands now. 

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3 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

The issue for Kupp is less the defenses he goes up against, and more the offenses the Rams face.  He has 2 outlier games this season, one in each direction: at Buffalo and at San Fran.  I don't know what happened against the 49ers, it was bad.  Against the Bills he had a big game in a shootout.

Dallas, Philly, NY, Washington, and Chicago had offenses that couldn't do much against LA's stout D.  Dallas particularly has a terrible run defense, and Philly couldn't stop them either.

LA is going to grind and rely on their defense when they can.  They've been able to do that in all but 1 game really.  Now Buffalo also has poor run defense, but their offense was able to put up points quickly and get out to a lead, forcing LA to open up and get into a 2nd half shootout - and Kupp blew up in that situation.

He's not a dependable week to week wr2.  But he'll have is spots.  The remaining schedule through week 13 includes Miami, Seattle, Tampa, SF again, and Arizona.  Those are all offenses that should put up points and make LA try to keep up.  After that, LA gets NE and the Jets before week 16 against Seattle.  

Those Seahawks games should be high output spots.  Miami, who has a raw rookie corner, who knows.  Arizona and TB should be big games.  NE and the Jets are less promising. San Fran is a toss up.

Good breakdown. I'd swap TB and Miami. I'd think Miami should be a big game, and TB is a toss up. If Brady and Co get a huge lead, that one could hit. The problem is that their front 7 is really strong, and could give Goff fits.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Good receivers tend to have good games most of the time regardless of the opponent and the gameflow.  The NFL is still a passing league.

My concern with Kupp is his lack of high end athleticism.  He is a FCS product and smaller and slower than your typical NFL wide receiver.  He is a route running technician and is a very smart player, but he does not even have the short area quickness of a Landry or Edelman.

During Kupp's rookie year, the NFL was facing McVay's system for the first time, and had to devote major resources to stopping peak Gurley but also Brandin Cooks on the outside and Robert Woods and the TEs.

Now that Kupp is getting more defensive attention, he is not putting up nearly as many big games as he used to.

He tested at 90th percentile agility. His short area quickness is elite. Edelman is actually a good comp for his agility score. 

There has definitely been a slight drop off in volume, which I certainly didn't expect, but I'm not sure it's going to last. 

Edited by ajs723

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