Joe Mixon 2020 Outlook

[smeeze 6,083]

17 hours ago, The G Man said:

 

Copied this from the Melvin Gordon thread. Seeing these two side by side tells me all I need to know about Mixon. 

Give him a decent QB/O-line/complimentary players and I believe he is gonna have a BIG season.

'Course, there is still this whole potential holdout situation. That, obviously, would not be good. 

Damn, MGIII has chicken legs compared to Joe.

[Boudewijn 4,061]

7 hours ago, smeeze said:

Damn, MGIII has chicken legs compared to Joe.

He has chicken legs compared to me. He has chicken legs compared to most chickens.

[theSPANKER 2,150]

7 hours ago, smeeze said:

Damn, MGIII has chicken legs compared to Joe.

 

Your right. Damn that settles it. MGIII is on my DND list going forward.  

[PizzaBeerFF 586]

On 5/12/2020 at 12:09 PM, K197040 said:

IDK.   I think he's a safe pick as long as you're not reaching for him.    Which would be gross.   

But he's pretty safe imo for an RB1 finish with some upside.

That is just it, he’s adp 11 overall according to what I am seeing. He finished 17th at rb last year in half ppr. He has a rookie QB... that doesn’t know the system. So... I’m sticking to better options at 11th overall. Hence the Meh.

[PizzaBeerFF 586]

2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

He has chicken legs compared to me. He has chicken legs compared to most chickens.

Yes but he has ankles.

 

🤣

 

sorry cankles, I couldn’t help it. 😂

[Evincar 1,645]

1 hour ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

That is just it, he’s adp 11 overall according to what I am seeing. He finished 17th at rb last year in half ppr. He has a rookie QB... that doesn’t know the system. So... I’m sticking to better options at 11th overall. Hence the Meh.

 

He's the last workhorse RB in round 1. I think he's appropriately priced at RB7 or end of round 1.

[PizzaBeerFF 586]

Fine. Then draft him this way.

[DeliciousGravy 248]

Joe Mixon's start to 2019 worries me. He was an absolute fantasy anchor. I don't see Cincy's line being much better with WIlliams essentially still being a rookie, and none of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or Cleveland are going to be pushovers in the run game. Not to mention the threat of a contract holdout. There are guys I feel better about at similar ADP's that I'd take the certainty of production.

[PizzaBeerFF 586]

2 hours ago, DeliciousGravy said:

Joe Mixon's start to 2019 worries me. He was an absolute fantasy anchor. I don't see Cincy's line being much better with WIlliams essentially still being a rookie, and none of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or Cleveland are going to be pushovers in the run game. Not to mention the threat of a contract holdout. There are guys I feel better about at similar ADP's that I'd take the certainty of production.

Nooo. Noooo. Noooo.... you can’t bring true logic around here. 🙈

[mocha4313 731]

I think he will be a top 3 RB this year.

I am trying to trade the farm for him in my dynasty league where I need RB help.

Pass catching numbers with Burrow will be up and the Bengals figured out late last year that they need to feed him more

Edited May 14 by mocha4313

[Gohawks 9,518]

On 5/12/2020 at 1:24 PM, The G Man said:

 

Copied this from the Melvin Gordon thread. Seeing these two side by side tells me all I need to know about Mixon. 

Give him a decent QB/O-line/complimentary players and I believe he is gonna have a BIG season.

'Course, there is still this whole potential holdout situation. That, obviously, would not be good. 

Ok seriously... What in the actual f--- is up with Gordons legs?

Your an NFL RUNNING back and your legs look like Donald Duck? Is it even possible to skip leg day when your job is to run for a living? I've been staring at his legs then his arms for like 5 minutes now trying to make sense of this madness.

But yeah Mixon is good. Probably the only RB in that bottom first top second round area worth drafting.

[RunCMC 2,119]

Still a questionable O-line this year, but everything else is a positive. Burrows arriving, AJ green healthy, drafted Higgins, Jonah Williams healthy. Big Joe is poised for a huge season . Perfect RB to target when drafting at the backend of 1st round. I would definitely double dip, grab Mixon & pair him with Chubb or Drake. 

[Evincar 1,645]

15 hours ago, DeliciousGravy said:

Joe Mixon's start to 2019 worries me. He was an absolute fantasy anchor. I don't see Cincy's line being much better with WIlliams essentially still being a rookie, and none of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or Cleveland are going to be pushovers in the run game. Not to mention the threat of a contract holdout. There are guys I feel better about at similar ADP's that I'd take the certainty of production.

 

Im not worried about the 2019 start. They had injuries to the O-line, no AJ Green. They fixed the running game after the bye.

Here's a good writeup on their O-line for 2020:  https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-o-line-overhaul-looks-to-finish

[BMcP 8,052]

Neither am I, for all the reasons mentioned.  You also need to give Stacy at least a bit of time to get his feet wet as an NFL HC.  

Edited May 14 by BMcP

[Gohawks 9,518]

On 5/13/2020 at 8:15 PM, DeliciousGravy said:

Joe Mixon's start to 2019 worries me. He was an absolute fantasy anchor. I don't see Cincy's line being much better with WIlliams essentially still being a rookie, and none of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or Cleveland are going to be pushovers in the run game. Not to mention the threat of a contract holdout. There are guys I feel better about at similar ADP's that I'd take the certainty of production.

Cleveland allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game last year. He actually has one of the easiest schedules for RBs this season. Not that any of it really matters as looking at last season has proven time and time again to be fairly useless. The only scheduling I pay attention to is WR matchups against elite corners.

[pushaZ 1,343]

If the salary cap declines in 2021 like is being reported I think Mixon's odds of holding out go way up

[phillyfan461 130]

On 5/14/2020 at 1:53 PM, Evincar said:

 

Im not worried about the 2019 start. They had injuries to the O-line, no AJ Green. They fixed the running game after the bye.

Here's a good writeup on their O-line for 2020:  https://www.bengals.com/news/bengals-o-line-overhaul-looks-to-finish

 

 

I don't know that it was so much fixing the run game vs packing it in for the season once they benched Dalton.  

Mixon averaged 15 touches per game before the bye, then 24 after.  

Yes, I do think O-line will be better(can't get much worse) but Bengals are probably a bottom 15 if not bottom 10 offense again which will cap his scoring opportunities and ultimately his upside. 

[Boudewijn 4,061]

3 hours ago, phillyfan461 said:

Mixon averaged 15 touches per game before the bye, then 24 after.  

That's good info, thanks. The rest of your post is a bit conjecture of course; note that there are plenty RBs that have performed well on bad offenses (eg Saquon Barkley).

Actually, after reviewing the data, I also disagree with your numbers.

Before the bye, there were a couple weeks where he had a decent workload (20 touches) and a couple where it was very low. The main difference was that in those weeks he wasn't able to get anything going on the running game. Week 1/2/6/7 he had 1.2 YPC on average!

From week 8 onwards (so before the bye) he had a steady workload, and from then on he didn't behave a week under YPC and most weeks over 4 YPC. So I wouldn't say it's just the workload, yes, I actually think they fixed the running game. The increase in yardage is not explained only by the increase in touches.

And I don't get what they fixed, to be honest. The personnel in the O-line was more or less stable during the season, but if you look at the footage of the Bengals vs SF at the start of the season vs how they played vs the Pats, suddenly all those collapsing holes stayed open and Mixon just keeps running through the tiniest holes. Yes, they clearly fixed the running game. It looks very much like a coaching achievement to me.

Which would be good news for Mixon 2020.

[phillyfan461 130]

On 7/21/2020 at 11:39 PM, Boudewijn said:

That's good info, thanks. The rest of your post is a bit conjecture of course; note that there are plenty RBs that have performed well on bad offenses (eg Saquon Barkley).

Actually, after reviewing the data, I also disagree with your numbers.

Before the bye, there were a couple weeks where he had a decent workload (20 touches) and a couple where it was very low. The main difference was that in those weeks he wasn't able to get anything going on the running game. Week 1/2/6/7 he had 1.2 YPC on average!

From week 8 onwards (so before the bye) he had a steady workload, and from then on he didn't behave a week under YPC and most weeks over 4 YPC. So I wouldn't say it's just the workload, yes, I actually think they fixed the running game. The increase in yardage is not explained only by the increase in touches.

And I don't get what they fixed, to be honest. The personnel in the O-line was more or less stable during the season, but if you look at the footage of the Bengals vs SF at the start of the season vs how they played vs the Pats, suddenly all those collapsing holes stayed open and Mixon just keeps running through the tiniest holes. Yes, they clearly fixed the running game. It looks very much like a coaching achievement to me.

Which would be good news for Mixon 2020.

 

I think in order for RBs to really perform on bad offenses, they HAVE to catch the ball at a high rate (ala Barkley in '18 with 90 catches)  

We've seen Burrow throw to RBs in college and know Mixon is dynamic as a pass catcher, so the hope here is he's closer to 50+ rather than the 30s he had in '17 & '19

[joshua18 7,006]

On 7/23/2020 at 12:33 PM, phillyfan461 said:

 

I think in order for RBs to really perform on bad offenses, they HAVE to catch the ball at a high rate (ala Barkley in '18 with 90 catches)  

We've seen Burrow throw to RBs in college and know Mixon is dynamic as a pass catcher, so the hope here is he's closer to 50+ rather than the 30s he had in '17 & '19

Same HC, same OC that only got Mixon 30ish catches with the other WRs hurt. And now they have Green, Boyd, Ross, Higgins to funnel targets to? Not a high receptions ceiling for Mixon.

[mocha4313 731]

1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

Same HC, same OC that only got Mixon 30ish catches with the other WRs hurt. And now they have Green, Boyd, Ross, Higgins to funnel targets to? Not a high receptions ceiling for Mixon.

Except for the QB who likes throwing to backs and the second half bump in usage last season

[CViewPride35 95]

I strongly believe Mixon has a good chance to finish top 5 with potential to finish top 3. He is a talented rb in a work horse role on a team with improved oline, qb and threats out wide(aj, boyd, speedy ross)

[dontclapGonorrhea 338]

11 hours ago, CViewPride35 said:

I strongly believe Mixon has a good chance to finish top 5 with potential to finish top 3. He is a talented rb in a work horse role on a team with improved oline, qb and threats out wide(aj, boyd, speedy ross)

I've felt this year Mixon was going to finish 2 overall, behind Kamara. Joe is going to take that pressure off of a rookie qb. He is going to probably see an elevated tick in receptions as well as scoring. They also get Jonah back this year which is going to help immensely to the line. Another weapon at wr returns if he can stay health of course in Green is going to keep defenses more honest, which knockout Joe can hit a home run

[NInsko 201]

I got the 10 spot and its looking like i'm gonna be mixon it up this year. Prettty prettty pretty good.

[Dreams And Dwightmares 3,180]

OL is gonna see major upgrade in 2020.

 

I worry about coaching staff more than anything. I also worry about Gio. The offense was 10x better running through Mixon than Gio, but they were hell bent on giving Gio run when healthy. 

Edited July 26 by Dreams And Dwightmares