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Joe Mixon 2020 Outlook

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36 minutes ago, Chippa said:

game was in cincy, and the final score was pats 34-13. It's called garbage time. Congrats on racking up over 100 yards when your team is getting blown out. 

Logic wont work with you guys who are emotionally invested in certain players.

I'm a bengals fan, I love Mixon. But 90% if his big games come during garbage time, end of season, and against cleveland.

He had 95 rushing yards in the 1st half against stacked boxes. The score was 13-10 NE at half, and the Pats hit a last second FG to take that lead. Dalton promptly threw 3 2nd half INTs (1 pick 6) and the game got out of hand. It's a copout to simply say it happened in garbage time because the game ended up a blowout. Watch the highlights, I think this game was the most impressive he looked all season.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

He had 95 rushing yards in the 1st half against stacked boxes. The score was 13-10 NE at half, and the Pats hit a last second FG to take that lead. Dalton promptly threw 3 2nd half INTs (1 pick 6) and the game got out of hand. It's a copout to simply say it happened in garbage time because the game ended up a blowout. Watch the highlights, I think this game was the most impressive he looked all season.

 

WEEK 15 Lol Many such cases. Like I said before, "90% of his big games come during garbage time, end of season, and against cleveland"

 

Edited by Chippa

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1 minute ago, Chippa said:

WEEK 15 Lol Many such cases. Like I said before, "90% of his big games come during garbage time, end of season, and against cleveland"

 

You specifically called out that the reason Mixon dominated that Pats game was because it was a blowout/he took advantage of garbage time, and I wanted to show you that it wasn't at all the case. The end of season point makes sense when it's against a team with no playoff hopes. The Pats were in the thick of the race for the Bye, they weren't taking the Bengals/Mixon lightly, especially emphasized by Belichick calling Mixon the best RB in football leading up to the game.

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1 minute ago, Olliemets said:

You specifically called out that the reason Mixon dominated that Pats game was because it was a blowout/he took advantage of garbage time, and I wanted to show you that it wasn't at all the case. The end of season point makes sense when it's against a team with no playoff hopes. The Pats were in the thick of the race for the Bye, they weren't taking the Bengals/Mixon lightly, especially emphasized by Belichick calling Mixon the best RB in football leading up to the game.

The pats took them lightly in the first half, and when they realized that the bengals werent giving up, they promptly put them in their place, and held Mixon to 60 yards 2nd half. 

Sure I said Mixon had a great game because it was garbage time, and I was wrong there. But my overall point still stands. It was end of season. Games go differently towards the end of season

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2 hours ago, Chippa said:

The pats took them lightly in the first half, and when they realized that the bengals werent giving up, they promptly put them in their place, and held Mixon to 60 yards 2nd half. 

Sure I said Mixon had a great game because it was garbage time, and I was wrong there. But my overall point still stands. It was end of season. Games go differently towards the end of season

 

Held him to 60 yards in the 2nd half. Hmm...okay. And that's bad because...? 

Look we get it...you don't like Mixon in fantasy. It sounds like you're really trying too hard to argue against him...comes across as a self-loathing Bengals fan complex thing. If you don't like him in fantasy, that's fine. But when you say "they promptly put them in their place, and held Mixon to 60 yards 2nd half", well you kinda lose credibility. I hope Mixon gets held to 60 yards in every single half this year. Lol. 

I do have a share of Mixon as my RB2 on one team, but I'm not emotionally invested or anything. I hope he does well, but I'm not going to cry if he doesn't and I'm not ignoring logic. I'm very well aware that 300+ of his rushing yards came against Cleveland in two late-season games. My hope is that a healthy Jonah Williams and a QB like Burrow will open things up for Mixon. Maybe he balls out this year...maybe he doesn't. We'll see. 

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36 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

My hope is that a healthy Jonah Williams and a QB like Burrow will open things up for Mixon. Maybe he balls out this year...maybe he doesn't. We'll see. 

that's what all of your arguments are. Hope. Mixon has shown time and time again that he lives up to draft value once week 12-16 comes. And that's mainly the fantasy playoffs. 

Listen, the o-line doesnt excite me. Looks the same as last season, but with the addition of a guy who has never played a nfl snap, and is coming off a season ending knee injury. Even if he plays decent, it's still a below average o-line. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Chippa said:

that's what all of your arguments are. Hope. Mixon has shown time and time again that he lives up to draft value once week 12-16 comes. And that's mainly the fantasy playoffs. 

Listen, the o-line doesnt excite me. Looks the same as last season, but with the addition of a guy who has never played a nfl snap, and is coming off a season ending knee injury. Even if he plays decent, it's still a below average o-line. 

 

 

Good lord man. It's fantasy football...everything is "hope". Lol! There's so much luck involved in this hobby of ours, that hope is what we hold onto when evaluating and drafting players. There are zero guarantees, and if you're waiting for that first guarantee, then you're in the wrong hobby...especially in 2020. No offense intended, lol. Again, you're trying to hard to dislike a RB on your own team. He's my RB2 in one league, and I'm perfectly happy with that. You're not...super for you. 

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9 minutes ago, Chippa said:

that's what all of your arguments are. Hope. Mixon has shown time and time again that he lives up to draft value once week 12-16 comes. And that's mainly the fantasy playoffs. 

Listen, the o-line doesnt excite me. Looks the same as last season, but with the addition of a guy who has never played a nfl snap, and is coming off a season ending knee injury. Even if he plays decent, it's still a below average o-line. 

 

Yeah but what happens if you're team is already eliminated from the playoffs largely due to Mixon underproducing when week 12 rolls around?  It won't matter then.

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11 minutes ago, Chippa said:

that's what all of your arguments are. Hope. Mixon has shown time and time again that he lives up to draft value once week 12-16 comes. And that's mainly the fantasy playoffs. 

Listen, the o-line doesnt excite me. Looks the same as last season, but with the addition of a guy who has never played a nfl snap, and is coming off a season ending knee injury. Even if he plays decent, it's still a below average o-line. 

 


He was horrendous in championship week. Not good considering he did nothing the first half of the season.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Yeah but what happens if you're team is already eliminated from the playoffs largely due to Mixon underproducing when week 12 rolls around?  It won't matter then.

exactly my point. He balls once it's late in the season. I'm against drafting mixon

13 minutes ago, joshua18 said:


He was horrendous in championship week. Not good considering he did nothing the first half of the season.

I'm just painting a broad stroke about the lack of good performances in the first 2/3 of the season vs the last 1/3 of the season. It's a yearly thing for him, and it's because the o-line is putrid

Edited by Chippa

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6 hours ago, Chippa said:

He balls once it's late in the season. I'm against drafting mixon

You don't like a guy who performs during play-off time?

tenor.gif

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14 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

You don't like a guy who performs during play-off time?

tenor.gif

You draft a guy in the 2nd round/3rd round and he gives you 6th round value? No way. Using an early pick in mixon could pay off if you make the playoffs. But like this man said

7 hours ago, joshua18 said:


He was horrendous in championship week. Not good considering he did nothing the first half of the season.

Mixon didnt even play well come playoff time last season

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Chippa said:

You draft a guy in the 2nd round/3rd round and he gives you 6th round value? No way. Using an early pick in mixon could pay off if you make the playoffs. But like this man said

Mixon didnt even play well come playoff time last season


Wait, wtf? Dude had 25.6 standard points week 14, 16.6 FP week 15 (against NE) and he had the runs (literally was shittin that day) in week 16 (almost didn’t play). Give the man a break. Oh and week 17 if you went that far? 30.6 FP!
 

I owned him last year. As bad as the O-Line was (it was horrendous) the rookie HC didn’t help his cause either. The QB’s sucked, and he inexplicably had Gio in there a lot. It wasn’t until week 8, against the LAR and Zac’s old team no less, that he finally let this man loose and he balled after that. He was a beast, and the team actually looked decent. 
 

Don’t sleep on this guy. With any type of improvement to the O-Line and Burrow hopefully keeping defenses honest, I think he has the potential to finish top 5 this year. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that barring an injury, I think he’s a lock for top 7 RB. 

Edited by Sonny_D
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1 hour ago, Sonny_D said:


Wait, wtf? Dude had 25.6 standard points week 14, 16.6 FP week 15 (against NE) and he had the runs (literally was shittin that day) in week 16 (almost didn’t play). Give the man a break. Oh and week 17 if you went that far? 30.6 FP!
 

I owned him last year. As bad as the O-Line was (it was horrendous) the rookie HC didn’t help his cause either. The QB’s sucked, and he inexplicably had Gio in there a lot. It wasn’t until week 8, against the LAR and Zac’s old team no less, that he finally let this man loose and he balled after that. He was a beast, and the team actually looked decent. 
 

Don’t sleep on this guy. With any type of improvement to the O-Line and Burrow hopefully keeping defenses honest, I think he has the potential to finish top 5 this year. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that barring an injury, I think he’s a lock for top 7 RB. 


“Lock” is generous; Bernard is still the highest paid RB on the team.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sonny_D said:


Wait, wtf? Dude had 25.6 standard points week 14, 16.6 FP week 15 (against NE) and he had the runs (literally was shittin that day) in week 16 (almost didn’t play). Give the man a break. Oh and week 17 if you went that far? 30.6 FP!
 

I owned him last year. As bad as the O-Line was (it was horrendous) the rookie HC didn’t help his cause either. The QB’s sucked, and he inexplicably had Gio in there a lot. It wasn’t until week 8, against the LAR and Zac’s old team no less, that he finally let this man loose and he balled after that. He was a beast, and the team actually looked decent. 
 

Don’t sleep on this guy. With any type of improvement to the O-Line and Burrow hopefully keeping defenses honest, I think he has the potential to finish top 5 this year. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that barring an injury, I think he’s a lock for top 7 RB. 

 

A lock for top 7?

In 2019, Mixon scored 0.72 PPR fantasy points per touch. To reach the top 7 at that rate, he would have needed 47 more touches (15% increase). To reach the top 6, he would have needed 93 more touches (30% increase). Disregard the CMC outlier, and Mixon was already right near the top of the NFL in total touches at 313. And that's during a year with Barkley, Kamara, Conner, and Gurley fighting injuries and missing games, Jacobs and Sanders just getting their toes wet, Drake playing only a portion of his season with Arizona, and both CEH and Jonathan Taylor not yet in the league.

The Bengals were 2-14 in 2019 and are favored to lose in every 2020 game. In 9 of their games, they are favored to lose by a touchdown or more. Their defense remains terrible. Their offensive line remains terrible. Playing from behind is going to require they throw the ball, and they have a rookie QB behind center. In 44 career games, Mixon has been targeted only 3 times per game, with those numbers trending in the wrong direction after Marvin Lewis was canned (only 2.5 targets per game over his final 12 games of 2019).

Mixon is talented, but it seems like nearly everything has to go right for him to reach the top 7. I wouldn't count on the 2020 Bengals making that happen.

Edited by MrCantaloupe
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28 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

A lock for top 7?

In 2019, Mixon scored 0.72 PPR fantasy points per touch. To reach the top 7 at that rate, he would have needed 47 more touches (15% increase). To reach the top 6, he would have needed 93 more touches (30% increase). Disregard the CMC outlier, and Mixon was already right near the top of the NFL in total touches at 313. And that's during a year with Barkley, Kamara, Conner, and Gurley fighting injuries and missing games, Jacobs and Sanders just getting their toes wet, Drake playing only a portion of his season with Arizona, and both CEH and Jonathan Taylor not yet in the league.

The Bengals were 2-14 in 2019 and are favored to lose in every 2020 game. In 9 of their games, they are favored to lose by a touchdown or more. Their defense remains terrible. Their offensive line remains terrible. Playing from behind is going to require they throw the ball, and they have a rookie QB behind center. In 44 career games, Mixon has been targeted only 3 times per game, with those numbers trending in the wrong direction after Marvin Lewis was canned (only 2.5 targets per game over his final 12 games of 2019).

Mixon is talented, but it seems like nearly everything has to go right for him to reach the top 7. I wouldn't count on the 2020 Bengals making that happen.

Correction: The Bengals are favored against the Jags in week 4. Missed that one.

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1 hour ago, MrCantaloupe said:

Correction: The Bengals are favored against the Jags in week 4. Missed that one.

I'm going to take a look at those odds. I think they're going to do a lot better than people think.

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Bengals weren't as bad as the record showed last year. They lost 8 games by 8 or less points. I don't think they are making the playoffs or anything, but being paired with the AFC South and NFC East should result in some wins, plus the Dolphins and Chargers outside of the division. I'd set the over/under at 4.5,and would lean slightly over.

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Burrow likes throwing to his RBs. I expect an uptick in targets for Mixon. 

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1 hour ago, Agmaniacmike said:

Bengals weren't as bad as the record showed last year. They lost 8 games by 8 or less points. I don't think they are making the playoffs or anything, but being paired with the AFC South and NFC East should result in some wins, plus the Dolphins and Chargers outside of the division. I'd set the over/under at 4.5,and would lean slightly over.

 

I saw it at 5.5 actually. Crazy how that works if they're only favored in 1 game. Goes to show you just how much a single play or two can shift the result of a game.

The Bengals were 3rd worst in the league in point differential at -141, so I think it's fair to say they were as bad as their record showed. The only teams they outscored were the Jets and Redskins.

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This is one of those guys that newcomers will look at the final stats and think this dude is worth it. I don't know how he gets his point totals so high, but this guy is not worthy of even a 2nd round pick. He's a 3rd rounder going almost in the 1st lol, definitely a trap card right there. 

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24 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

This is one of those guys that newcomers will look at the final stats and think this dude is worth it. I don't know how he gets his point totals so high, but this guy is not worthy of even a 2nd round pick. He's a 3rd rounder going almost in the 1st lol, definitely a trap card right there. 

 

So only newcomers think he's worth a 2nd? Hmm...okay. I don't think he's a 1st rounder but would take him in the 2nd depending on who was available and who my first pick was. I'm definitely not a newcomer. 

Did I think Mixon was worth a second last year? No. Would I think he's worth a second this year if he still had the Dalton/Finley duo at QB? No. But I do believe Williams at LT and Burrow at QB are going to make a bigger difference than some believe. And I do believe Mixon gets worked into the passing game a bit more. He won't be a 60-catch RB, but I do think he can hit the 50-catch mark that he was basically on pace for in 2018. 

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For those who wouldn’t take Mixon in the first round just curious who you would choose 10-12? 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

For those who wouldn’t take Mixon in the first round just curious who you would choose 10-12? 

...is this supposed to be a hard question to answer? I'm not going to state the obvious ones, but as for non obvious ones, I'd personally take Julio, Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek, Sanders, Godwin, Drake and Kelce. Mixon should be a late 2nd round/early 3rd round pick, and I will not be targeting him. Let someone else deal with 11 points per game from weeks 1-12.

I'd also take schuster and conner over mixon, as well as chub and carson. Good thing those guys are going in the 3rd/4th. Let the jabronis grab Mixon early

Edited by Chippa
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