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Leonard Fournette 2020 Outlook

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LF again has a super-soft schedule and limited competition for touches - in fact, the fifth-softest (per Sharp).  And his ADP is pretty low right now.  

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People are confusing real life and fantasy. He is not a particularly good RB in real life--like at all. But in fantasy he gets volume on the ground and has passes forced to him as well (though maybe less so with Chris Thompson and gadget WR Shenault). Pretty good bargain at his ADP assuming he stays in Jacksonville.

 

In keeper and dynasty leagues though his value is shot. In these leagues talent wins out, and Fournette just isn't more than a marginally above average back (at most).

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I've been ending up with him in a lot of my drafts and feel good about where i'm getting him.  If he stays at his current ADP i'll probably bite every time

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, 30Burger said:

 

 

Seems kinda small to me...

 

Wow ya, his conditioning is not fitting the model of what i am scouting for this season, i predict a lost season for mr fournette

 

thanks for posting, i am modeling my draft board off 2011 results with the lock out, i want to see articles about so and so adding muscle, ala calvin johnson, i just dont see it with mr fournette if that is where we are at

Edited by 1972Miamidolphins

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4 hours ago, 30Burger said:

 

 

Seems kinda small to me...

 

Matt Forte would come into my old job all the time and he looked small too. I wouldnt let that deter me.

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On 5/20/2020 at 1:47 AM, mocha4313 said:

People are confusing real life and fantasy. He is not a particularly good RB in real life--like at all. But in fantasy he gets volume on the ground and has passes forced to him as well (though maybe less so with Chris Thompson and gadget WR Shenault). Pretty good bargain at his ADP assuming he stays in Jacksonville.

 

In keeper and dynasty leagues though his value is shot. In these leagues talent wins out, and Fournette just isn't more than a marginally above average back (at most).

 

The issue is that real life football has a way of impacting fantasy production.

Now that they've declined his 5th year option, apparently tired to trade him all offseason, and leaked information about poor off the field habits, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that was reflected in his touches.  

Ryquell Armstead is a pretty sneaky late round addition.

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2 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

The issue is that real life football has a way of impacting fantasy production.

Now that they've declined his 5th year option, apparently tired to trade him all offseason, and leaked information about poor off the field habits, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that was reflected in his touches.  

Ryquell Armstead is a pretty sneaky late round addition.

This is correct and will happen next year when Fournette becomes a Carlos Hyde/Jordan Howard type journeyman without a feature role.

But it doesn't always happen in the same season. Melvin Gordon was an awful player last year in real life--horribly inefficient with a 3.08 YPC (yikes) and fumbling problems yet volume propped him up as a decent fantasy RB.

Armstead is a decent addition for Fournette owners if Fournette gets hurt, he flashes and they just keep him in the lead role to see if he is their RB of the future--or if Fournette gets dealt.

In all likelihood though, the Jags RB of the future will be probably drafted or signed next year IMO

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12 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

This is correct and will happen next year when Fournette becomes a Carlos Hyde/Jordan Howard type journeyman without a feature role.

But it doesn't always happen in the same season. Melvin Gordon was an awful player last year in real life--horribly inefficient with a 3.08 YPC (yikes) and fumbling problems yet volume propped him up as a decent fantasy RB.

Armstead is a decent addition for Fournette owners if Fournette gets hurt, he flashes and they just keep him in the lead role to see if he is their RB of the future--or if Fournette gets dealt.

In all likelihood though, the Jags RB of the future will be probably drafted or signed next year IMO

 

Lots of assumptions in there.

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14 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

Ryquell Armstead is a pretty sneaky late round addition.

some considerations:

1) not really sneaky, because plenty of people believe themselves in tune with the jaguars' depth chart;

2) we saw fournette's inefficiency last season yet he was not replaced at all; armstead peaked at 252 yards + 2 TDs and that's where he'll be this season too;

3) now chris thompson comes to town to play his 8 games and absorb targets;

4) laviska shenault is the same size and same weight and same speed as fournette, and he played often enough from wildcat.

i'd suggest armstead is a waste of a bench spot.

12 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Armstead is a decent addition for Fournette owners if Fournette gets hurt, he flashes and they just keep him in the lead role to see if he is their RB of the future--or if Fournette gets dealt.

In all likelihood though, the Jags RB of the future will be probably drafted or signed next year IMO

if fournette gets hurt, shenault might be more of a replacement than armstead (or at least a shenault / thompson / armstead committee). 

agreed regarding the jag's future RB being not yet on the team... unless 1) fournette balls out this year, and 2) fournette stays out of trouble. when fournette is on, i like him, and i'd like to see him earn a contract with the jags. maybe last season he was only shaking off the rust and seeing if he could play 16 games (which he did not).

 

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22 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

some considerations:

1) not really sneaky, because plenty of people believe themselves in tune with the jaguars' depth chart;

2) we saw fournette's inefficiency last season yet he was not replaced at all; armstead peaked at 252 yards + 2 TDs and that's where he'll be this season too;

3) now chris thompson comes to town to play his 8 games and absorb targets;

4) laviska shenault is the same size and same weight and same speed as fournette, and he played often enough from wildcat.

i'd suggest armstead is a waste of a bench spot.

if fournette gets hurt, shenault might be more of a replacement than armstead (or at least a shenault / thompson / armstead committee). 

agreed regarding the jag's future RB being not yet on the team... unless 1) fournette balls out this year, and 2) fournette stays out of trouble. when fournette is on, i like him, and i'd like to see him earn a contract with the jags. maybe last season he was only shaking off the rust and seeing if he could play 16 games (which he did not).

 

 

The suggestion that Shenault is any kind of Fournette replacement is insane.

Sure he may get a few wildcat snaps but that's it.

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23 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Wow ya, his conditioning is not fitting the model of what i am scouting for this season, i predict a lost season for mr fournette

 

thanks for posting, i am modeling my draft board off 2011 results with the lock out, i want to see articles about so and so adding muscle, ala calvin johnson, i just dont see it with mr fournette if that is where we are at

 

Looks fit to me. I'm confused.

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58 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Looks fit to me. I'm confused.

Maybe its the camera angle, but looks tiny, but again, no way i take him this season based on my scouting model

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2 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Maybe its the camera angle, but looks tiny, but again, no way i take him this season based on my scouting model

 

Yea, nothing about those biceps and thighs looks light. Dude is 6'0 228. I don't blame you for not taking him but your "scouting model" is flawed if part of it is based on that instagram pic.

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1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yea, nothing about those biceps and thighs looks light. Dude is 6'0 228. I don't blame you for not taking him but your "scouting model" is flawed if part of it is based on that instagram pic.

The instagram has influenced my decision, i do not know these athletes personally, so i can only make a decision based on the information provided, therefore, an instagram picture has some merit in my book

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yea, nothing about those biceps and thighs looks light. Dude is 6'0 228. I don't blame you for not taking him but your "scouting model" is flawed if part of it is based on that instagram pic.


Yes but is he 228 in that photo, as an avid lifter I’d say no way. He was absolutely shredded last year. Not saying your’e wrong , I definitely wouldn’t base any drafting decisions just from one photograph (which is one minor piece to the puzzle) . Besides pictures can be deceiving; the lighting, the angle.. etc. And nothing a month or two of solid lifting can’t fix 💪🏻

Edited by RunCMC
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17 minutes ago, RunCMC said:


Yes but is he 228 in that photo, as an avid lifter I’d say no way. He was absolutely shredded last year. Not saying your’e wrong , I definitely wouldn’t base any drafting decisions just from one photograph (which is one minor piece to the puzzle) . Besides pictures can be deceiving; the lighting, the angle.. etc. And nothing a month or two of solid lifting can’t fix 💪🏻

 

I don't think he would take an instagram picture of him post workout and release it to the world if he felt like his physique, lifting etc. was an issue. Dude has a six pack, large biceps and forearms and thighs that you can tell are rocks. This is the definition of non-news.

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Posted (edited)

From 9 weeks ago. Color me as not worried about his fitness/strength:

 

Edited by paulwall29

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19 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I don't think he would take an instagram picture of him post workout and release it to the world if he felt like his physique, lifting etc. was an issue. Dude has a six pack, large biceps and forearms and thighs that you can tell are rocks. This is the definition of non-news.


Doesn’t sway me one way or another to be honest with you. If anything I was agreement. All I said was he doesn’t look 228 in “that” photo. You call that a six pack ok... looks like a grampa with big biceps. Again I said pictures can be deceiving, I haven’t given one analysis or take on Lenny for the 2020 season. That would be Mr.1972Dolphins. He does look much better in the videos you posted, physique wise. 

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I don’t understand why him getting shopped around for a minute has tanked his value so badly.

 

Doesn’t this scream of a “run him into the ground” season?


With SOME positive TD regression almost certain(along w maybe 20-30 fewer receptions), I simply don’t understand the adp plunge.

 

On top of everything else, he stayed healthy and he looked like one of the few guys on the team still trying at the end.

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I think the chatter about his pic(s) are hilarious, i.e. why anyone gives a flip or think they matter in the slightest.

Basically IMO he's JAG on a weak offense but the reps give him modest value. Not sure where he's ranked but I would consider him an OK RB2 at most.

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Yeah this season might be the first time I find Fournette attractive.....from an ADP stand point, not those pics ya'll are posting.  

I feel like each season before he was priced in the RB1 range, and you had to buy him as an RB1 to get him.  This season FP has him ranked as RB17.

Not very efficient, but we know he's going to get the volume and he's due for some positive TD regression to the mean.  Finally played a full slate last season.  

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12 hours ago, bomont said:

I think the chatter about his pic(s) are hilarious, i.e. why anyone gives a flip or think they matter in the slightest.

This is the same forum that was talking up Lacy for doing P90X workouts in the off season, S&C knowledge is lacking.

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7 hours ago, Maroney's Bolgna said:

Lololol at all these basement dudes who've never done a deadlift critiquing elite athletes.

And like that, this particular thread turns a place where about 5-6 people talk up how much they lift and how jacked they are, and the Leonard Fournette conversation dies.

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