dewaser

Leonard Fournette 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Not interested in him this year. Chris Thompson should steal alot of targets on 3rd down and hurry up instead of leaving fournette out there. He needed a TON of inefficient touches to get where he did last yr. Despite his size he's not good on the GL so I don't see a big TD increase coming. The jags only gave him 8 opportunities last year anyway. The oline isn't improved enough to matter. Only pieces of this offense I want are Chark, Minshew and Eifert

Edited by scheibler
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1 hour ago, sjm76 said:

They may try to see if Ryquell Armstead can be the main guy later in the season.

 

Lol there is not a chance Armstead is their back of the future with how good the RB free agent class is + talent in the draft.

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He's the clear RB1 on a team that has no use for him after this year. There is a scenario where the run him into the ground.

He's a wildcard, but very capable of putting up RB2 numbers with upside, and his ADP reflects that. 

Gurley was a discount last year because of unknowns, and he pretty much performed like it. 

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1 hour ago, FooserX said:

He's the clear RB1 on a team that has no use for him after this year. There is a scenario where the run him into the ground.

He's a wildcard, but very capable of putting up RB2 numbers with upside, and his ADP reflects that. 

Gurley was a discount last year because of unknowns, and he pretty much performed like it. 

Yep he’s beginning to become a good value/underrated after being overrated/over drafted.. 

He could also be highly motivated and get a ton of work. 

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Agreed - this is his year to prove to everyone he's not a bust...and to get a fat contract.

For me, it's a tough choice between LF, DJ, and Taylor.

DJ has injuries but is in the best situation

LF is on a team that isn't going to score a lot and is moving away from him

Taylor is going to share with Mack as long as Mack is healthy...at least for the beginning part of the season I would guess.

 

This is one of those areas of the draft that will win my league, imo. Pick right, and you have a strong RB2 wit RB1 upside to balance out your round 1 RB, and round 2/3 picks...pick wrong, and ugh...although I guess you could say that about any round. The way to win is to hit on those later round dudes who outperform their ADP. 

 

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6 hours ago, FooserX said:

Agreed - this is his year to prove to everyone he's not a bust...and to get a fat contract.

For me, it's a tough choice between LF, DJ, and Taylor.

DJ has injuries but is in the best situation

LF is on a team that isn't going to score a lot and is moving away from him

Taylor is going to share with Mack as long as Mack is healthy...at least for the beginning part of the season I would guess.


i think Lenny is the pick here.
 

Taylor is the best talent and will have a lot of big weeks I’m sure but the coach will give Mack plenty of chances and hines is the 3rd down guy. Taylor might not get 25 catches. But Taylor could be huge the 2nd half of the year. Depends if you think you can build a team to withstand 3-4 weeks for the colts to realize Taylor is awesome 

DJ is gonna get plenty of opportunity but he was an awful runner last year and Watson doesn’t pass to the RB very often. 

Lenny is gonna get plenty of rushing attempts, he’s due for more TDs and last year proved minshew will check down to the RB plenty. He won’t get 70 catches again but 40-50 is absolutely within range

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Can’t remember a player I wanted to prove everyone wrong as much as this guy.

 

Hope douchey podcast pundits eat dust on this one

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I don't understand the hate, from a talent/opportunity perspective.  If your fear is injury, or a stubbed toe he whines about for weeks, then I completely understand.

Chris Thompson will steal targets and receptions, you're right.

Fournette is a bit touch dependent, I agree.

But... that's been true his entire career, and last year wasn't the first time he's been an RB1 or produced like one.  While the targets/receptions would be nice to repeat, and are the difference between high end RB1 or low end RB1, he's currently being drafted as RB20, so it's a moot point.

Cut his receptions in half for -36, and you can expect at least half of that back in a TD gain as it's highly unlikely he's held to 3 again.

If healthy, 260-280 carries, 1000-1100 yards, 5-8 TDs, 40-60 targets, 30-40 catches.

He'll average between 15-17 points per game which is good for RB9~RB15, and you can get him for RB20 price.

His receiving regression is already built into his price and anyone still using it as an excuse against him, should feel silly.  If we didn't expect Chris Thompson to cut into his receiving work, Fournette would be going in the 2nd round, probably right with Chubb/Jones.

Speaking of which, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram, Chris Carson, Joe Mixon, and Todd Gurley.  All top 15 backs on the season last year with less than 50 targets in the passing game.  So even if you assume his passing game gets cut by 50% he's still right in the mix as a top 15 RB, and again... for RB20 price.  I don't think his ADP lines up with any of my Snakes, but for $17 average cost in Auction, it's highly unlikely he doesn't end up on my Auction Team this Wednesday.

 

Think of it this way.  There are only 14 RBs in the league last year (not named Fournette) who rushed for over 1,000 yards.  Of those 15, only 5 of them had more than 50 targets, 4 of them will be drafted in the first 6 picks, and Aaron Jones who is going 17 picks before Fournette.  Can we move on from this Chris Thompson narrative, it genuinely doesn't hold any water at this point.

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5 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I don't understand the hate, from a talent/opportunity perspective.  If your fear is injury, or a stubbed toe he whines about for weeks, then I completely understand.

Chris Thompson will steal targets and receptions, you're right.

Fournette is a bit touch dependent, I agree.

But... that's been true his entire career, and last year wasn't the first time he's been an RB1 or produced like one.  While the targets/receptions would be nice to repeat, and are the difference between high end RB1 or low end RB1, he's currently being drafted as RB20, so it's a moot point.

Cut his receptions in half for -36, and you can expect at least half of that back in a TD gain as it's highly unlikely he's held to 3 again.

If healthy, 260-280 carries, 1000-1100 yards, 5-8 TDs, 40-60 targets, 30-40 catches.

He'll average between 15-17 points per game which is good for RB9~RB15, and you can get him for RB20 price.

His receiving regression is already built into his price and anyone still using it as an excuse against him, should feel silly.  If we didn't expect Chris Thompson to cut into his receiving work, Fournette would be going in the 2nd round, probably right with Chubb/Jones.

Speaking of which, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram, Chris Carson, Joe Mixon, and Todd Gurley.  All top 15 backs on the season last year with less than 50 targets in the passing game.  So even if you assume his passing game gets cut by 50% he's still right in the mix as a top 15 RB, and again... for RB20 price.  I don't think his ADP lines up with any of my Snakes, but for $17 average cost in Auction, it's highly unlikely he doesn't end up on my Auction Team this Wednesday.

 

Think of it this way.  There are only 14 RBs in the league last year (not named Fournette) who rushed for over 1,000 yards.  Of those 15, only 5 of them had more than 50 targets, 4 of them will be drafted in the first 6 picks, and Aaron Jones who is going 17 picks before Fournette.  Can we move on from this Chris Thompson narrative, it genuinely doesn't hold any water at this point.

Bingo

 

hes one of the best bargains in the draft.   My theory is that people are still stuck on the Jags trying to trade him.   

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Not sexy enough for people, don't mind boring at all for my 4th round RB2 

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He salvaged last year with all those receptions, I expect that number to be cut in half with Chris Thompson in town. However with that being said, the man is due for positive TD regression in a major way. Which will offset any reduction in the passing game. Fournette is one of those safe picks in 2020, but if you're looking for big upside I suggest you look somewhere else. 

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Any thoughts on how to rank the Gurley, LF, DJ, Taylor tier of backs in PPR?

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30 minutes ago, herschel said:

Any thoughts on how to rank the Gurley, LF, DJ, Taylor tier of backs in PPR?

Gurley 

Princess Leo

JT 

DJ

MG3

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11 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I don't understand the hate, from a talent/opportunity perspective.  If your fear is injury, or a stubbed toe he whines about for weeks, then I completely understand.

Chris Thompson will steal targets and receptions, you're right.

Fournette is a bit touch dependent, I agree.

But... that's been true his entire career, and last year wasn't the first time he's been an RB1 or produced like one.  While the targets/receptions would be nice to repeat, and are the difference between high end RB1 or low end RB1, he's currently being drafted as RB20, so it's a moot point.

Cut his receptions in half for -36, and you can expect at least half of that back in a TD gain as it's highly unlikely he's held to 3 again.

If healthy, 260-280 carries, 1000-1100 yards, 5-8 TDs, 40-60 targets, 30-40 catches.

He'll average between 15-17 points per game which is good for RB9~RB15, and you can get him for RB20 price.

His receiving regression is already built into his price and anyone still using it as an excuse against him, should feel silly.  If we didn't expect Chris Thompson to cut into his receiving work, Fournette would be going in the 2nd round, probably right with Chubb/Jones.

Speaking of which, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram, Chris Carson, Joe Mixon, and Todd Gurley.  All top 15 backs on the season last year with less than 50 targets in the passing game.  So even if you assume his passing game gets cut by 50% he's still right in the mix as a top 15 RB, and again... for RB20 price.  I don't think his ADP lines up with any of my Snakes, but for $17 average cost in Auction, it's highly unlikely he doesn't end up on my Auction Team this Wednesday.

 

Think of it this way.  There are only 14 RBs in the league last year (not named Fournette) who rushed for over 1,000 yards.  Of those 15, only 5 of them had more than 50 targets, 4 of them will be drafted in the first 6 picks, and Aaron Jones who is going 17 picks before Fournette.  Can we move on from this Chris Thompson narrative, it genuinely doesn't hold any water at this point.

i love this post so much.  especially the bolded part

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Posted (edited)

Is he really due for more TDs though? He had EVERY carry inside the 5 on the team and did horrible. No other rb in the league got all of their teams carries there. I wouldn't be surprised to see him phased out of the offense before the fantasy playoffs even arrive unless he absolutely balls out and forces them to want to sign him next year. He rarely gets anything more then what's blocked, pure volume play and I just don't see the volume for him this year

Edited by scheibler

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Just drafted this bum at 4.01 in a 12 team. Not happy about it, hopefully the floor is solid though. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, hubbell525 said:

Am I the only one that thinks he can have a big year? Contract year.

I'm sure he's motivated, but his surrounding cast doesn't really give much reason for optimism: a bad offensive line, a questionable coaching staff, a 6th-round pick at QB in his first full season as the starter, and their defense is at best a work in progress that will likely struggle keep the score close in a lot of games this year. On top of it all, Fournette appears to have a strained relationship with the organization that undermines confidence in his availability. With that said, the scarcity of RB1s means that I have Fournette at RB14 right now in partial ppr, rounding out the second tier. That's basically an RB1/2, so I would be fine taking him around the 1/2 turn and try to hopefully pair him with another RB of similar value on the subsequent pick.

Edited by EaglesRocker97

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2 hours ago, scheibler said:

Is he really due for more TDs though? He had EVERY carry inside the 5 on the team and did horrible. No other rb in the league got all of their teams carries there.

 

Double edged sword and a crutch argument that you'll lose 99% of the time.

Are you saying you DON'T want a RB who gets 100% of their teams carries inside the 5?  Or are you saying it's his fault, that his team only ran the ball inside the 5, eight times in an entire season?

You are correct, he had every carry inside the 5 yard line.  All 8 of them.  Meaning, he got .5 chances per game.  Or 1 chance every other week.
Worth mentioning though, he scored on 3 of them.  While that 37.5% isn't great, here's the trap.  Are you saying any RB with a ~40% success rate inside the 5 yard line is bad and should be avoided?

McCaffrey is the #1 pick overall and only had a 47% success rate inside the 5.
Alvin Kamara is the #3 pick overall and only had a 42% success rate inside the 5.
Joe Mixon is the 9th RB off the board, with a 25% success rate inside the 5.
Saquon Barkley is the 2nd pick off the board, with a 14% success rate inside the 5.
Nick Chubb is 13th RB off the board, with a 13% success rate inside the 5.

So, either this stat is indicative of RB success and you're avoiding half of the RB1s on draft day, or it doesn't really mean anything other than TDs are fluky year to year, in which case you're bringing it up, specifically to slander a player you don't like.  Let me know which one, so I can adjust my rankings accordingly.

The typical response to this, when you inevitably realize you're wrong, is to grasp at straws, I'm predicting something along the lines of "well a low success rate is okay, because 30% of 20 carries, is drastically different than 30% of 8 carries!"  Which, for anyone who doesn't look at statistics before they speak, would seem logical.  But...

Derrick Henry, 6th RB, 10 carries inside the 5.
Josh Jacobs, 8th RB, 10 carries inside the 5.
Chris Carson, 16th RB, 9 carries inside the 5.
Saquon Barkley, 2nd RB, 7 carries inside the 5.
Alvin Kamara, 3rd RB, 7 carries inside the 5.
Austin Ekeler, 12th RB, 7 carries inside the 5.
Miles Sanders, 10th RB, 6 carries inside the 5.
Le'Veon Bell, 18th RB, 5 carries inside the 5.
David Johnson, 17th RB, 5 carries inside the 5.

So... with all of that in mind... please tell me, who are you drafting ahead of Leonard Fournette with your alleged stance on carries/success inside the 5, in order to justify your line of thought that he isn't worth being drafted as the 20th RB off the board.

Extra Credit:

JAX doesn't have anyone to replace LF, so he can't be phased out.  Chris Thompson sure as hell can't be a lead back and Ryquell Armstead was even worse than LF last year, despite the advantage of a CoP role.

Maybe LF's vision can be called into question, or their line and entire offense sucks, but let's not forget that LF is one of the fastest RBs in the league in actual football games.
In 2017 he had the 2 fastest runs in the league (all *offensive positions) "The league measured his top two speeds on long touchdown runs in successive weeks, reaching 22.05 mph on a 90-yard run in Week 5 against the Pittsburgh Steelers and 21.76 mph on a 75-run in Week 6 against the Los Angeles Rams." -NFL NextGenStats. I can't find his data for 2018, but in 2019 he ranked 6th among RBs at 21.38mph.  For the curious, in order: Breida, Chubb, CMC, Saquon, and Tarik Cohen were the top 5.

*Clarification
Fastest Ball Carriers shows the maximum speed, measured in Miles Per Hour (MPH), a player achieves on a given play when carrying the ball on offense (rusher, passer or receiver) or special teams (punt or kick returner). This stat highlights many of the fastest players in the league.

At this point, anyone who wants to try and discredit Leonard Fournette, skip the excuses and just give me a breakdown of why Jonathon Taylor, Melvin Gordon, or David Montgomery deserve to be drafted ahead of him.  Otherwise, what are we even talking about?

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Posted (edited)

I'm saying I don't think he's going to repeat that and get all the opportunities again under a new coach after continuously getting stuffed. I wouldn't even be surprised if the jags as a whole even get more opportunities. Someone else posted an interesting stat how QBs in grudens system always have sneaky rushing TDs aswell. Coupled with the fact that the jags seem discontent to keep him around and his locker room issues in the past he's a DND for me. I expect his receptions to go wayyyyy down and his carries to regress aswell. The oline should only be marginally better if it all and he doesn't seem to get more then what's blocked. 

 

I'd take Melvin over him bc Lindsay has struggled making an impact through the air. Melvin has proven he can make an impact in that area and has a nack for scoring TDs unlike fournette. Taylor is going too high for me due to the uncertainty of that situation. Montgomery is in the same situation as fournette for me, DND

Edited by scheibler

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