thebadferret

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook

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17 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

This is very true, but luckily the RB position is one that is more of instinct/vision moreso than formations. Learning the playbook will be important, don't get me wrong, but the rookies could hit their stride the second half of the season and be a league winner. 

If it were merely a question of memorizing a set of plays, I’d be more inclined to agree.  But it’s also a matter of achieving a rapport with your teammates and developing proper rhythm and timing, which is something that can only be accomplished by practice reps.

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Kingsbury operates a virtually shotgun-exclusive scheme - which is perfectly tailored to a player like Drake, who has averaged a full yard and a half better in shotgun than under center for his career.


And you think Andy Reid’s offense isn’t a perfect match for CEH? 

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2 hours ago, smeeze said:

Disagree - IMO the disparity in talent between the 2 will be immediately apparent and DW will be used to spell CEH. Just speculation though.

Totally fair.    I reserve the right to back out of my stubborn stance should your prediction come to pass in ps 👀 

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Just now, Stonej14 said:


And you think Andy Reid’s offense isn’t a perfect match for CEH? 

Not at all what I think - I was just addressing your point regarding Drake.  

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

If it were merely a question of memorizing a set of plays, I’d be more inclined to agree.  But it’s also a matter of achieving a rapport with your teammates and developing proper rhythm and timing, which is something that can only be accomplished by practice reps.

I could point to examples of backs hitting their stride immediately, even though you've already bashed Drake for an out of bounds reason, but by halfway through the season you don't think at least one rookie, besides CEH, can't break out? I'm willing to admit not every back can't hit the ground running, due to multiple factors, some being those you listed, but even by mid-season? I personally reaped the benefits of a Drake and Sanders tandem last season. I can attest to these examples from just last year. 

Edited by buckeyestilidie

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

I could point to examples of backs hitting their stride immediately, even though you've already bashed Drake for an out of bounds reason, but by halfway through the season you don't think at least one rookie, besides CEH, can't break out? I'm willing to admit not every back can't hit the ground running, due to multiple factors, some being those you listed, but even by mid-season? I personally reaped the benefits of a Drake and Sanders tandem last season. I can attest to these examples from just last year. 

Umm...where exactly did I “bash” Drake?  I’m higher on him than just about anyone!

If you re-read my earlier post, I never claimed these guys couldn’t eventually emerge down the line of the season as starters.

(P.S.  I have consistently been one of CEH’s most ardent supporters for fantasy since well before the draft.)

Edited by BMcP

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Umm...where exactly did I “bash” Drake?  I’m higher on him than just about anyone!

If you re-read my earlier post, I never claimed these guys couldn’t eventually emerge down the line of the season as starters.

I apologize, bashed may have been the incorrect word to use. You alluding to Drake only succeeding early due to the system Kingsbury runs, is kind of an out bounds point, considering where CEH currently is, was my point. CEH is in a near glove fit for system and plays on, arguably, the best offense in the league. I get the concerns over continuous RB2 vulture numbers, but one thing Reid loves to do once he finds his guy, is use him. If CEH is the first round talent he's believed to be, he won't be had in the third round of redrafts next year. 

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On 6/2/2020 at 11:29 AM, MrCantaloupe said:

 

KC is going to move the ball and score a lot of points. Owning a piece of both their passing and running attack is good diversification.

I would probably take CEH and enjoy his 5 primetime games vs Taylor's 1, but the two are close in my rankings and I haven't yet made up my mind.

Both are starting out in RBBC situation.....I personally think Taylor will be the better NFL player....but CEH will be better for fantasy in that crazy O......to have Mahomes and CEH on your team would lead to some monster games.....although there is that downside of double hit when they have a rare bad outing....gotta think that wont happen often.  

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11 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

I apologize, bashed may have been the incorrect word to use. You alluding to Drake only succeeding early due to the system Kingsbury runs, is kind of an out bounds point, considering where CEH currently is, was my point. CEH is in a near glove fit for system and plays on, arguably, the best offense in the league. I get the concerns over continuous RB2 vulture numbers, but one thing Reid loves to do once he finds his guy, is use him. If CEH is the first round talent he's believed to be, he won't be had in the third round of redrafts next year. 

I see - I didn’t mean to imply that.  I think Drake was horribly misutilized due to poor coaching in Miami.  KK’s offensive scheme must be such a breath of fresh air for him.

As for CEH, obviously scheme is not an issue in the slightest.  It will be exclusively the “off-paper,” on-field reasons I mentioned above that would delay his ascendancy.

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23 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

When was the last time Damien williams made it through a regular season healthy and not missing games?


2020.

I remember because it was the year I drafted CEH in the 3rd round. 😉

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Despite being a Chiefs fan, having the 1.01 in dynasty I took Taylor. Ended up trading for CEH after to get them both so I am definitely invested--having him on my fantasy and real life teams

But as for why I took JT first, there is something that worries me a bit about CEH:

Can anyone think of a particularly successful player who was that little (5'7'') and not particularly fast (4.6+ 40 time)?

Maybe I am just not able to remember clearly but MJD--despite being little--was stronger and considerably faster based on athletic testing.

Not saying it can't be done (it probably has and is just not coming to me), but it was a lot easier for me to find players with Taylor's profile who have hit and turned into feature backs than with Clyde's.

Obviously owning him I hope both are stud RB1s and as a Chiefs fan I hope CEH is a bit better, but it is something that I thought about before my rookie draft.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Despite being a Chiefs fan, having the 1.01 in dynasty I took Taylor. Ended up trading for CEH after to get them both so I am definitely invested--having him on my fantasy and real life teams

But as for why I took JT first, there is something that worries me a bit about CEH:

Can anyone think of a particularly successful player who was that little (5'7'') and not particularly fast (4.6+ 40 time)?

Maybe I am just not able to remember clearly but MJD--despite being little--was stronger and considerably faster based on athletic testing.

Not saying it can't be done (it probably has and is just not coming to me), but it was a lot easier for me to find players with Taylor's profile who have hit and turned into feature backs than with Clyde's.

Obviously owning him I hope both are stud RB1s and as a Chiefs fan I hope CEH is a bit better, but it is something that I thought about before my rookie draft.

 

Devin Singletary and Dion Lewis in recent history. Cant think of anyone else atm.

Edited by Evincar

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Devin Singletary and Dion Lewis recent history. Cant think of anyone else atm.

Darren Sproles? I know he had burst and agility like CEH, can’t remember the 40 time though.

Edit: Sproles ran a 4.47

I forgot this thing called google existed 

Edited by Breesus
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3 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Devin Singletary and Dion Lewis recent history. Cant think of anyone else atm.

Both good players: Lewis was even a borderline RB1 one year, but neither are the type of guys you hope your high first round dynasty rookie pick turns into.

1 minute ago, Breesus said:

Darren Sproles? I know he had burst and agility like CEH, can’t remember the 40 time though 

Sproles ran a 4.47. Not the worst comp by any means but Sproles was a 4th round pick and thus never got the kind of feature RB in the backfield opportunity CEH has

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1 minute ago, mocha4313 said:

Both good players: Lewis was even a borderline RB1 one year, but neither are the type of guys you hope your high first round dynasty rookie pick turns into.

 

Well both players have played in timeshares/committees and Lewis has dealt with numerous injuries in his career. I think the one thing that concerns with me CEH is he had only had 1 season of production. Im not that concerned with his "slow" 40-time.

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10 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Well both players have played in timeshares/committees and Lewis has dealt with numerous injuries in his career. I think the one thing that concerns with me CEH is he had only had 1 season of production. Im not that concerned with his "slow" 40-time.

He was behind a really talented recruit and high end prospect in Guice his freshman year, but the failure to beat out JAG Nick Brosette in 2018 is definitely a possible red flag.

 

And as for committee part that's just it. I was unsure if a player with that profile could ever hold a feature back job without a complement/committee.

As a first rounder though, I do believe Reid will give him every opportunity

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Despite being a Chiefs fan, having the 1.01 in dynasty I took Taylor. Ended up trading for CEH after to get them both so I am definitely invested--having him on my fantasy and real life teams

But as for why I took JT first, there is something that worries me a bit about CEH:

Can anyone think of a particularly successful player who was that little (5'7'') and not particularly fast (4.6+ 40 time)?

Maybe I am just not able to remember clearly but MJD--despite being little--was stronger and considerably faster based on athletic testing.

Not saying it can't be done (it probably has and is just not coming to me), but it was a lot easier for me to find players with Taylor's profile who have hit and turned into feature backs than with Clyde's.

Obviously owning him I hope both are stud RB1s and as a Chiefs fan I hope CEH is a bit better, but it is something that I thought about before my rookie draft.


Nailed it.   KC wanted to give DW a competent backup, @DerrickHenrysCleats And add another weapon to keep their advantage on the other teams In the AFC west trying to play catch up-  Denver and Oakland in particular.  Both added substantial pieces on offense as well. 

 

CEH fits the mold nicely-  but still not a feature back.   Too small,  too sluggish.   He can juke you 3 times in a phone booth and still not pull away from tacklers.  
 Good instincts and will be a threat out of the backfield tho.   
 

 

Edited by Impreza178
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Can’t say enough about the strategy of “adding a strength to a strength” in drafting - especially real-world drafting.

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Reid's experience in 2019 proved two things to him:

1)  He needed another running back very badly;

and

2)   Darwin Thompson is not that guy.

Enter CEH, a guy with red flags all over, but he enters a good situation.

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9 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Nailed it.   KC wanted to give DW a competent backup, @DerrickHenrysCleats And add another weapon to keep their advantage on the other teams In the AFC west trying to play catch up-  Denver and Oakland in particular.  Both added substantial pieces on offense as well. 

 

CEH fits the mold nicely-  but still not a feature back.   Too small,  too sluggish.   He can juke you 3 times in a phone booth and still not pull away from tacklers.  
 Good instincts and will be a threat out of the backfield tho.   
 

 

 

It's a shame If you really feel this way and are not trolling.

 

Andy Reid is probably one of the best talent evaluators for the RB position in the history of football, almost certainly for fantasy purposes. His offenses are elite, his RBs are elite (the ones he drafts and the ones he trusts end up up being high end RB1)

 

In PPR Andy Reid RBs have been dominating for over a decade unless something flukey happened. 

 

CEH isn't as big or as fast as Taylor but he is more versatile. His receiving skills are on CMCs level. The wide open spread offense KC runs will give him huge holes to run through. 

 

Reid, who claimed ceh was better than Brian westbrook drafted him 1st round, more guaranteed money, 5th year option. Speaks volumes to those paying attention and I know @Impreza178 pays attention.

 

I don't see any way possible without injuries where DW takes more snaps from CEH than Marlon Mack and nyhiem Hines take for Taylor. In dynasty come 2021 CEH and JT will both be undisputed starters but Andy Reid is the one with the track record of dominant workhorse fantasy gold RBs.

 

Brian Westbrook who Andy Reid compared to CEH in 2006 with Reid in Philly had:

 

240 carries, 1,217 yards and 7 TDs. 5.1 per carry. 77 catches on 105 targets and 4 TDs

 

2007: 278 carries for 1,333 yards and 7 TDs. 4.8 per carry. 90 catches for 771 yards and 5 TDs

 

Shady McCoy as a rookie in 2009 with Andy Reid in Philly:

 

155 carries for 637 yards and 4 TDs. 40 receptions on 55 targets for 308 yards.

 

Shady in year 2 under Reid?

 

207 carries for 1,080 and 7 TDs. 5.2ypc. 78 catches on 91 targets for 592 and 2 TDs. 

 

Shady in year 3 under Reid?

 

273 carries for 1,309 yards and 17 TDs. 4.8ypc. 48 receptions on 69 targets for 315 yards and 3 TDs. 

 

Shady in year 4 under Reid?

 

314 carries for 1,607 yards and 9 TDs. 52 catches on 64 targets for 539 yards and 2 TDs.

 

Reid heads to KC and inherits Jamaal Charles. Charles in 2013 under Reid?

 

259 carries for 1,287 yards and 12 TDs. 70 catches on 104 targets and 7 TDs. 

 

Jamaal Charles 2014 under Reid?

 

206 carries for 1,033 yards and 9 TDs. 40 receptions for 291 yards and 5 TDs. 

 

2015 and 2016 Reid's leading rushers were jags Charkandrick West and Spencer Ware with Alex Smith at QB. Neither reached 1,000 yards.

 

***2017 Andy Reid drafted Kareem Hunt*** 2 rounds behind where he drafted CEH. Kareem Hunt rookie season under Andy Reid?

 

272 carries for 1,327 yards and 8 TDs. 53 receptions on 63 targets for 455 yards and 3 TDs.

 

In Hunts second season he had 14 TDs through 8 games and 800+ rushing yards before he was kicked off the team.

 

2020 - Andy Reid drafted CEH the 1st round. The highest slot a RB has ever been drafted by Andy Reid.

 

Reids better RBs seem to average between 4.8 - 5.1 yards per carry.

 

Damien Williams has never handled more than 140 touches during a regular season. He had 111 carries last season. KC had 375 total rushes.  If we give CEH 175 carries at 4.8ypc that's 840 yards and that's on the low end.

 

By the time 2021 comes around CEH will be looking like prime Shady McCoy or Kareem Hunt.

 

 

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43 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Just draft CEH and you can thank me later with some of the 💰 you win.

In what round?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

In what round?

 

In dynasty? 1.1

 

In redraft? 

 

If I got the #1 pick for example?

 

I go CMC in PPR, 24 picks later, your looking at someone maybe like miles sanders, Josh Jacobs, George Kittle, I'd make a compelling case to take Miles Sanders and CEH so you have 3 excellent pass catching back.

 

I'd draft Boston Scott late to backup miles sanders and who if he assumes the sproles role will likely have stand alone value and I would draft Gesiki and Jonnu smith late since I passed on Kittle.

 

So id argue to take him as high as 3.1 since that pick would not get to go again for another 24 picks but I'd still take him around middle of the 3rd and if he was there at the bottom end of the 3rd I'd be ecstatic.

 

You have to remember that you don't always just draft for the beginning of the season. 3rd round is pretty high to take a rookie but you have to consider his potential near the fantasy playoffs. Splitting the load early with Williams will allow CEH to be peaking when the playoffs roll around. Guys like Josh Jacobs I love but Gruden is going to pound him into the ground weeks 1-13 that owners will pray he is healthy for a strong playoff run. CEH will run plays out of the shotgun and take less pounding and rack up prolly double the receptions of Jacobs which is where the points really start racking up.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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7 hours ago, Impreza178 said:


Nailed it.   KC wanted to give DW a competent backup, @DerrickHenrysCleats And add another weapon to keep their advantage on the other teams In the AFC west trying to play catch up-  Denver and Oakland in particular.  Both added substantial pieces on offense as well. 

 

CEH fits the mold nicely-  but still not a feature back.   Too small,  too sluggish.   He can juke you 3 times in a phone booth and still not pull away from tacklers.  
 Good instincts and will be a threat out of the backfield tho.   
 

 

See this wasn't exactly what I meant.

Despite his performances in big games (AFCCG against the Patriots, Super Bowl), I just don't believe he is a particularly good player. He has certainly earned respect for those performances--enough to not be the backup to a rookie going into week 1, but I do think a 1st round capital indicates that he will be the lead back soon enough unless he really drops the ball. I am just thinking that no player who is both short and not especially fast has ever been more than a 1a in a rushing attack. Maybe that is different in an offense that figures to be so pass heavy; after all, a player like Kamara is not a workhorse in the traditional sense but that has in no way limited his RB1 fantasy potential.

 

6 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

It's a shame If you really feel this way and are not trolling.

 

Andy Reid is probably one of the best talent evaluators for the RB position in the history of football, almost certainly for fantasy purposes. His offenses are elite, his RBs are elite (the ones he drafts and the ones he trusts end up up being high end RB1)

 

In PPR Andy Reid RBs have been dominating for over a decade unless something flukey happened. 

 

CEH isn't as big or as fast as Taylor but he is more versatile. His receiving skills are on CMCs level. The wide open spread offense KC runs will give him huge holes to run through. 

 

Reid, who claimed ceh was better than Brian westbrook drafted him 1st round, more guaranteed money, 5th year option. Speaks volumes to those paying attention and I know @Impreza178 pays attention.

 

I don't see any way possible without injuries where DW takes more snaps from CEH than Marlon Mack and nyhiem Hines take for Taylor. In dynasty come 2021 CEH and JT will both be undisputed starters but Andy Reid is the one with the track record of dominant workhorse fantasy gold RBs.

 

Brian Westbrook who Andy Reid compared to CEH in 2006 with Reid in Philly had:

 

240 carries, 1,217 yards and 7 TDs. 5.1 per carry. 77 catches on 105 targets and 4 TDs

 

2007: 278 carries for 1,333 yards and 7 TDs. 4.8 per carry. 90 catches for 771 yards and 5 TDs

 

Shady McCoy as a rookie in 2009 with Andy Reid in Philly:

 

155 carries for 637 yards and 4 TDs. 40 receptions on 55 targets for 308 yards.

 

Shady in year 2 under Reid?

 

207 carries for 1,080 and 7 TDs. 5.2ypc. 78 catches on 91 targets for 592 and 2 TDs. 

 

Shady in year 3 under Reid?

 

273 carries for 1,309 yards and 17 TDs. 4.8ypc. 48 receptions on 69 targets for 315 yards and 3 TDs. 

 

Shady in year 4 under Reid?

 

314 carries for 1,607 yards and 9 TDs. 52 catches on 64 targets for 539 yards and 2 TDs.

 

Reid heads to KC and inherits Jamaal Charles. Charles in 2013 under Reid?

 

259 carries for 1,287 yards and 12 TDs. 70 catches on 104 targets and 7 TDs. 

 

Jamaal Charles 2014 under Reid?

 

206 carries for 1,033 yards and 9 TDs. 40 receptions for 291 yards and 5 TDs. 

 

2015 and 2016 Reid's leading rushers were jags Charkandrick West and Spencer Ware with Alex Smith at QB. Neither reached 1,000 yards.

 

***2017 Andy Reid drafted Kareem Hunt*** 2 rounds behind where he drafted CEH. Kareem Hunt rookie season under Andy Reid?

 

272 carries for 1,327 yards and 8 TDs. 53 receptions on 63 targets for 455 yards and 3 TDs.

 

In Hunts second season he had 14 TDs through 8 games and 800+ rushing yards before he was kicked off the team.

 

2020 - Andy Reid drafted CEH the 1st round. The highest slot a RB has ever been drafted by Andy Reid.

 

Reids better RBs seem to average between 4.8 - 5.1 yards per carry.

 

Damien Williams has never handled more than 140 touches during a regular season. He had 111 carries last season. KC had 375 total rushes.  If we give CEH 175 carries at 4.8ypc that's 840 yards and that's on the low end.

 

By the time 2021 comes around CEH will be looking like prime Shady McCoy or Kareem Hunt.

But I am also second guessing this part. Hunt and McCoy were considerably bigger than CEH. Charles was bigger and way faster.

 

Westbrook is probably the closest comparison but even he had a 40 time under 4.6.

 

I obviously don't doubt Reid or his system at all, but it is hard to find an example of an undersized back with major deficiencies in straight line speed turn into a consistent RB1 and unquestioned lead back (with no committee) purely on elusiveness and pass catching.

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