thebadferret

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Yes I would go even higher than those players you listed. 

The hope is that CEH can be as good as those guys. I love CEH but to me it’s just asinine to draft him higher than those proven guys.

It’s like if you have a choice between a box with $100 and then a mystery box between $50-$110. You’d have to be crazy to take the mystery box. 

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Just now, kdpat15 said:


I think you have to think about it in terms of where Zeke, Saquon went there rookie years as I think CEH will be in a similar environment. He doesn't have the talent level like Zeke/Saquon but he is on a much better team with the opportunity to dominate snaps. I think that alone warrants consideration of a top 10 fantasy draft pick honestly.

He doesn't have the body of work in college, the style of play or the offseason play installment and coaching program during his rookie year that those guys had though.

It's an absolute ceiling bet with a ton of risk.

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2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

He doesn't have the body of work in college, the style of play or the offseason play installment and coaching program during his rookie year that those guys had though.

It's an absolute ceiling bet with a ton of risk.

I think thats a fair argument, all im saying is he is in a prime position to succeed and sometimes in fantasy football that is all you really need. I think he is in the Aaron Jones, Mixon, Jacobs tier IMO. 15 touches on a KC team, ill take that all day. 

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1 minute ago, kdpat15 said:

I think thats a fair argument, all im saying is he is in a prime position to succeed and sometimes in fantasy football that is all you really need. I think he is in the Aaron Jones, Mixon, Jacobs tier IMO. 15 touches on a KC team, ill take that all day. 

I wouldn't personally draft him before those guys (maybe Jacobs), but that range at least makes sense to me.

Above some of the earlier guys mentioned in this thread (Cook, Kamara, Henry)?  Crazy pants if you ask me.

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36 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I suspect this thread ends up in a flame war with one of the other Chiefs backs' threads who emerges as a little bit more "change of pace-y" than you were hoping.

 

Absolutely.. this is getting ridiculous.
This is the perfect time to sell-high on CEH..... There are so many unknowns to this situation and people are already calling him a RB1. If that's the case, you should be able to flip him for Cook, Henry or Kamara which are much more stable options.

A rookie with very little practice time in the preseason, is probably NOT going to be a 3-down back in week 1.
Best case scenario is that he gets 8-10 carries/game while guys like Darwin Thompson and Daryl Williams share the rest.
Worst case scenario is they sign Devonta Freeman, and CEH has a minimal role until he gains more experience. 

 

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5 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

 

Absolutely.. this is getting ridiculous.
This is the perfect time to sell-high on CEH..... There are so many unknowns to this situation and people are already calling him a RB1. If that's the case, you should be able to flip him for Cook, Henry or Kamara which are much more stable options.

A rookie with very little practice time in the preseason, is probably NOT going to be a 3-down back in week 1.
Best case scenario is that he gets 8-10 carries/game while guys like Darwin Thompson and Daryl Williams share the rest.
Worst case scenario is they sign Devonta Freeman, and CEH has a minimal role until he gains more experience. 

 

People have thrown the name "Brian Westbrook" around a bit.

Just for comparison's sake, Westbrook averaged 3.6 touches per game his rookie year.

Times are different, kids play a little younger, and the Chiefs may not have a Duce Staley on the roster...but still, with a very small fraction of live contact reps in August available to get him acclimated to NFL defensive speed, the downside is there.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

The hope is that CEH can be as good as those guys. I love CEH but to me it’s just asinine to draft him higher than those proven guys.

It’s like if you have a choice between a box with $100 and then a mystery box between $50-$110. You’d have to be crazy to take the mystery box. 

Mystery Box Family Guy GIF - MysteryBox FamilyGuy ABoatsBoat ...

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

The hope is that CEH can be as good as those guys. I love CEH but to me it’s just asinine to draft him higher than those proven guys.

It’s like if you have a choice between a box with $100 and then a mystery box between $50-$110. You’d have to be crazy to take the mystery box. 

I don't think Cook or Kamara is a guaranteed box with $100.   Maybe not even Barkley in that offense.  McCaffrey and Zeke are the safest boxes to me but they're not equal.

The closest comp for me is rookie Kamara.  Where he was splitting the running work with Ingram but got a ton of receiving.  

To me, in this offense, I think he's got a much higher floor and ceiling than $50-$100. 

Edited by K197040

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, K197040 said:

I don't think Cook or Kamara is a guaranteed box with $100.   Maybe not even Barkley in that offense.  McCaffrey and Zeke are the safest boxes to me but they're not equal.

The closest comp for me is rookie Kamara.  Where he was splitting the running work with Ingram but got a ton of receiving.  

To me, in this offense, I think he's got a much higher floor and ceiling than $50-$100. 

agree his ceiling is alot higher than $110 even if it takes a couple weeks

 

edit- not that it matters awhole lot but 3 of the top 10 accuracy fantasy experts have him a #5,6, 9 overall in full ppr. im sure when others update their rankings there will be more

Edited by colepenhagen

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12 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

agree his ceiling is alot higher than $110 even if it takes a couple weeks

 

edit- not that it matters awhole lot but 3 of the top 10 accuracy fantasy experts have him a #5,6, 9 overall in full ppr. im sure when others update their rankings there will be more

I've heard similar but they differ in who they have him ahead/behind of.  None had him higher than CMC/Barkley/Zeke.  But one had him between Cook and Kamara.  With Cook being the highest.  .  

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

The hope is that CEH can be as good as those guys. I love CEH but to me it’s just asinine to draft him higher than those proven guys.

It’s like if you have a choice between a box with $100 and then a mystery box between $50-$110. You’d have to be crazy to take the mystery box. 

Good analogy. Although I’d say his ceiling is more like $112 😉

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I think rookie Kareem Hunt was like an early 3rd to mid 2nd round pick after the preseason Spencer Ware injury in 2017. Obviously this was back when Smith was the QB and the offense wasn't nearly as prolific. So late first to mid 2nd round seems like the inevitable ADP, with a few early 1st round reaches sprinkled in between leagues.

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the expected return of value at that price tag is so marginally thin I'll gladly let someone else make that gamble. he very likely will go ahead of Mahomes in many instances

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McCaffrey, Barkley Zeke, Kamara, Cook, Henry, M. Thomas, Adams, Hopkins, Hill, and Julio should all go above CEH or any other RB or WR contemplated being taken in this range in a full or half PPR.

CEH jumps into the Mixon, Drake, Sanders, Godwin, Ekeler, Chubb, Jacobs tier of players.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I liked CEH in college, and was an advocate of his before he got drafted as potentially the best RB in the draft class for today's style of NFL given his receiving chops, but he's still a rookie in a truncated offseason that's 5'7 207 pounds and while getting a lion's share of the work at LSU last year still split time and averaged about 18 touches per game in a historically dominant offense that got over 70 plays per game.  

 

Let me address that statement...CEH did not split time in 2019 at LSU. In fact, one of the things that made LSU's offense so deadly was the fact that he was the fulltime, 3-down, rarely-come-off-the-field RB. LSU didn't have sub packages, which allowed them to put the peddle to the metal...which is why the vast majority of the offensive production was relegated to CEH, Jefferson, Chase, Marshall, and Moss. If you look at LSU's inidividual offensive stats, you'll see that these five accounted for most of the yards and TDs, and it was simply because LSU rarely substituted. And the only reason a few of the WRs have the receptions they have is because Marshall had to miss a few games midseason.

The 141 carries that the three freshmen combined for came at the end of the many blowouts when starters were being rested and in the CFP game against Oklahoma when CEH was held out after two carries (once Orgeron realized OU had no hope of stopping LSU). So, saying CEH split time last year at LSU just isn't factual. 

ETA: This isn't to suggest where CEH should or shouldn't be drafted. I just wanted to address the statement that he split time last season, which was not the case. 

Edited by Flyman75
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12 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Value through the roof.

 

What did Kareem hunt do as a rookie with Andy Reid?

325 touches (53 of them catches), 1782 total yards, 11 touchdowns, and finished as the RB4 in PPR with Alex Smith as his QB.  Clyde isn't as big as Hunt and I can't see him getting the same percentage of carries that Hunt got (no other RB had more than 18 carries in 2017) but the sky is the limit for him this year.

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20 minutes ago, SnickSnack said:

325 touches (53 of them catches), 1782 total yards, 11 touchdowns, and finished as the RB4 in PPR with Alex Smith as his QB.  Clyde isn't as big as Hunt and I can't see him getting the same percentage of carries that Hunt got (no other RB had more than 18 carries in 2017) but the sky is the limit for him this year.

That was a really strange season for Hunt. He started off setting the league on fire for the first 5 games. Then was a middling RB2/3 until he dropped 2 more monster games in the playoffs.

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33 minutes ago, SnickSnack said:

325 touches (53 of them catches), 1782 total yards, 11 touchdowns, and finished as the RB4 in PPR with Alex Smith as his QB.  Clyde isn't as big as Hunt and I can't see him getting the same percentage of carries that Hunt got (no other RB had more than 18 carries in 2017) but the sky is the limit for him this year.

 

Andy Reid, RB Guru drafted CEH 2 rounds earlier than Kareem Hunt.

 

Giddy up. 

 

I'll be shocked if CEH does not top 60 receptions this year. 

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Let me address that statement...CEH did not split time in 2019 at LSU. In fact, one of the things that made LSU's offense so deadly was the fact that he was the fulltime, 3-down, rarely-come-off-the-field RB. LSU didn't have sub packages, which allowed them to put the peddle to the metal...which is why the vast majority of the offensive production was relegated to CEH, Jefferson, Chase, Marshall, and Moss. If you look at LSU's inidividual offensive stats, you'll see that these five accounted for most of the yards and TDs, and it was simply because LSU rarely substituted. And the only reason a few of the WRs have the receptions they have is because Marshall had to miss a few games midseason.

The 141 carries that the three freshmen combined for came at the end of the many blowouts when starters were being rested and in the CFP game against Oklahoma when CEH was held out after two carries (once Orgeron realized OU had no hope of stopping LSU). So, saying CEH split time last year at LSU just isn't factual. 

ETA: This isn't to suggest where CEH should or shouldn't be drafted. I just wanted to address the statement that he split time last season, which was not the case. 

You're absolutely right.  What I should have said is that he split touches while staying on the field.

Excluding Burrow's 115 carries, three other players combined for 116 carries and 24 catches to CEH's 215 and 55.  It's still obviously a great number for a historic offense, but it's not quite the workhorse levels that Zeke, Barkley, AD topped, and also those guys all had those types of performances multiple years in school.

Edited by JE7HorseGod

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9 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You're absolutely right.  What I should have said is that he split touches while staying on the field.

Excluding Burrow's 115 carries, three other players combined for 116 carries and 24 catches to CEH's 215 and 55.  It's still obviously a great number for a historic offense, but it's not quite the workhorse levels that Zeke, Barkley, AD topped, and also those guys all had those types of performances multiple years in school.

 

Ah, gotcha. Yeah, the offense revolved around Burrow and the passing game for sure. I think we'll see LSU go back to the run more this season (while still being an attacking passing offense) because Brennan can't possibly be the transcendent QB that Burrow was last year. It was utterly amazing to watch him for 15 games...never once had a bad game or an off game. So everything ran through him and understandably so, especially with the trio of WRs LSU put on the field. I am definitely curious to see how CEH does in KC, and the good thing for him is that he landed on a team with another transcendent QB who will keep running lanes open for him and dump the ball off to him. 

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9 hours ago, NInsko said:

In the league i'm in he is 100% going in the 1st round. Anywhere from 4 to i would say 8. They pretty much went nuts when the news broke

Same situation here.  A few Chiefs fans in my 12-team .5 PPR so I fully expect him to go 2nd half of 1st round. I would put his draft value at about RB7-8, FWIW

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7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

The hope is that CEH can be as good as those guys. I love CEH but to me it’s just asinine to draft him higher than those proven guys.

It’s like if you have a choice between a box with $100 and then a mystery box between $50-$110. You’d have to be crazy to take the mystery box. 

 

What if the mystery box was $50-$1,000?

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6 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

agree his ceiling is alot higher than $110 even if it takes a couple weeks

 

edit- not that it matters awhole lot but 3 of the top 10 accuracy fantasy experts have him a #5,6, 9 overall in full ppr. im sure when others update their rankings there will be more

 

If you add me into the list of fantasy experts then that is a formidable point you are making. That would be 4 of the top 11 experts all saying the same thing.

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