thebadferret

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook

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49 minutes ago, Arrowhead said:

Dear god who would trade CMC for CEH that’s the worst move ever

 

agreed that a straight up trade is absolute INSANITY ...

... but the op mentioned a 2 for 1 deal, not just a straight swap - so there's that to chew on. 

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Just now, scheibler said:

 

Yea main reason is bc by the time I pick again the best two rbs will be ekeler or conner. Think I'd rather risk it with CEH and grab a guy like Godwin or Golladay or even one if those as an rb2 instead if an rb1

Out of curiosity what do you think CEH numbers will be by the end of the season. 

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11 minutes ago, Arrowhead said:

Out of curiosity what do you think CEH numbers will be by the end of the season. 

 

I'm guessing 230 for 1000, 50 for 400 and 8tds total with potential for Aaron Jones style TD year and better yardage if he wows

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1 minute ago, scheibler said:

 

I'm guessing 230 for 1000, 50 for 400 and 8tds total with potential for Aaron Jones style TD year and better yardage if he wows

Seems pretty accurate 

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1 minute ago, Arrowhead said:

Seems pretty accurate 

 

What I'm really liking is what's been said by him and the coaches. Coaches already said they aren't concerned with him pass blocking, they've each said he's a perfect fit in the scheme and CEH says learning the playbook is nothing to worry about. 

 

My biggest concerns for him were pass blocking, Damien Williams and learning the playbook as a rookie with less rehearsals as usual.

 

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1 hour ago, scheibler said:

 

Yea main reason is bc by the time I pick again the best two rbs will be ekeler or conner. Think I'd rather risk it with CEH and grab a guy like Godwin or Golladay or even go rb again

 

is have no problem with CEH over MT. He’s a major regression candidate and they’re are excellent WRs in the mid rounds 

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3 hours ago, scheibler said:

 

What I'm really liking is what's been said by him and the coaches. Coaches already said they aren't concerned with him pass blocking, they've each said he's a perfect fit in the scheme and CEH says learning the playbook is nothing to worry about. 

 

My biggest concerns for him were pass blocking, Damien Williams and learning the playbook as a rookie with less rehearsals as usual.

 


Nothing to worry about....don’t like that.   A rookie in Reid’s system is undoubtedly swimming in new concepts and terminology.  Pretending otherwise is a fool’s errand.   
 

I hope this kid doesn’t go out there and look like the fat Dion Lewis.   Hearts will be breaking all over fantasyland 😆 

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16 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Nothing to worry about....don’t like that.   A rookie in Reid’s system is undoubtedly swimming in new concepts and terminology.  Pretending otherwise is a fool’s errand.   
 

I hope this kid doesn’t go out there and look like the fat Dion Lewis.   Hearts will be breaking all over fantasyland 😆 

 

Lol that wasn't his exact quote, but he said he lives for this and enjoys learning playbooks. He definitely could flop, but his upside is through the roof

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3 hours ago, scheibler said:

 

Yea main reason is bc by the time I pick again the best two rbs will be ekeler or conner. Think I'd rather risk it with CEH and grab a guy like Godwin or Golladay or even go rb again

Same thing I’m running into. Do I believe CEH is better than MT, not at all but I do believe the gap between CEH and Conner is larger than the gap between MT and Godwin. It’s weird to not take BPA in the first but the depth at Wr is amazing this year but RBs dry up quick.

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3 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

Lol that wasn't his exact quote, but he said he lives for this and enjoys learning playbooks. He definitely could flop, but his upside is through the roof


Yeah you can def justify first round value based on spot and upside alone.   I’ve seen some crazy things lately-  CEH going 2 or 3.   That’s bizarre to me.   The upside of the top 5-7 rbs is just as good as CEH with the floor of a proven player.   

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2 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Duplicate

You were VERY excited to post that 😆 

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

You were VERY excited to post that 😆 

I was, for some reason the text box didn’t go away after clicking post so I assumed it didn’t go through. Turns out it did, 3 times....

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2 hours ago, straightfire118 said:

1st round for a rookie? Super easy fade.


Why? Rookies come out and dominate every year. 

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5 hours ago, Stonej14 said:


Why? Rookies come out and dominate every year. 

I prefer rookie running backs lol. Smallest learning curve and most likely to make an instant impact. 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, straightfire118 said:

1st round for a rookie? Super easy fade.

2012 Alfred Morris 1,613 yards, 13 TDs

2015 Gurley 1,106 yards and 10 TDs in 13 games

2016 Zeke 1, 631 rushing yards, 16 total TDs

2016 Jordan Howard 1,313 yards rushing, 7 TDs

2017 Kamara 1,500+ total yards, 13 TDs

2017 Kareem Hunt 1,327 yards rushing, 11 total TDs

2018 Barkley 2,028 yards from scrimmage, 15 TDs

2018 Philip Lindsey 1,278 yards from scrimmage, 10 TDs

Most of those numbers would be pretty solid for a first rounder.

Edited by jnormy
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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, straightfire118 said:

1st round for a rookie? Super easy fade.

 

31 minutes ago, jnormy said:

2012 Alfred Morris 1,613 yards, 13 TDs

2015 Gurley 1,106 yards and 10 TDs in 13 games

2016 Zeke 1, 631 rushing yards, 16 total TDs

2016 Jordan Howard 1,313 yards rushing, 7 TDs

2017 Kamara 1,500+ total yards, 13 TDs

2017 Kareem Hunt 1,327 yards rushing, 11 total TDs

2018 Barkley 2,028 yards from scrimmage, 15 TDs

2018 Philip Lindsey 1,278 yards from scrimmage, 10 TDs

Most of those numbers would be pretty solid for a first rounder.

Statistically, most good RBs break out their rookie year at the ripe age of 21...same age as CEH.

Edited by Jwook

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4 hours ago, jnormy said:

2012 Alfred Morris 1,613 yards, 13 TDs

2015 Gurley 1,106 yards and 10 TDs in 13 games

2016 Zeke 1, 631 rushing yards, 16 total TDs

2016 Jordan Howard 1,313 yards rushing, 7 TDs

2017 Kamara 1,500+ total yards, 13 TDs

2017 Kareem Hunt 1,327 yards rushing, 11 total TDs

2018 Barkley 2,028 yards from scrimmage, 15 TDs

2018 Philip Lindsey 1,278 yards from scrimmage, 10 TDs

Most of those numbers would be pretty solid for a first rounder.

 

Maybe Im wrong but I believe only Zeke and Barkley had 1st round ADPs in their rookie season and both guys were top 5 overall picks in the draft.

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54 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Maybe Im wrong but I believe only Zeke and Barkley had 1st round ADPs in their rookie season and both guys were top 5 overall picks in the draft.


Hunt was going 1st rd in high-stakes drafts right before the season after Ware blew out his knee in the preseason, and he was a 3rd rd pick.
 

CEH is going to the same offense, with a better QB, and higher draft capital (if you care about things like that). 

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6 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Maybe Im wrong but I believe only Zeke and Barkley had 1st round ADPs in their rookie season and both guys were top 5 overall picks in the draft.

That may well be. My only point was that rookie RBs have put up big numbers on a regular basis in the recent past, so a back being a rookie shouldn’t have to be a reason to fade him in the first round (or any round for that matter) if other factors are favorable. And IMHO, the factors are very favorable for CEH.

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4 hours ago, jnormy said:

That may well be. My only point was that rookie RBs have put up big numbers on a regular basis in the recent past, so a back being a rookie shouldn’t have to be a reason to fade him in the first round (or any round for that matter) if other factors are favorable. And IMHO, the factors are very favorable for CEH.

 

There's not much room for error because youre drafting him at his ceiling. Im a little skeptical on what his rushing numbers might be.

 

9 hours ago, joshua18 said:


Hunt was going 1st rd in high-stakes drafts right before the season after Ware blew out his knee in the preseason, and he was a 3rd rd pick.
 

CEH is going to the same offense, with a better QB, and higher draft capital (if you care about things like that). 

 

I havent looked at the ADP data from 2017 but I thought it was late 2nd/early 3rd round.

 

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22 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

There's not much room for error because youre drafting him at his ceiling. Im a little skeptical on what his rushing numbers might be.

 

 

I havent looked at the ADP data from 2017 but I thought it was late 2nd/early 3rd round.

 

 

With this line of thinking, are not all first round picks "drafted at their ceiling" with little "room for error"?

There are only a handful of players with #1 overall upside, and I think those who grab CEH in the 6-12 range must believe he falls into that category. If true, drafting him in the back half of the 1st round is a bargain.

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

With this line of thinking, are not all first round picks "drafted at their ceiling" with little "room for error"?

There are only a handful of players with #1 overall upside, and I think those who grab CEH in the 6-12 range must believe he falls into that category. If true, drafting him in the back half of the 1st round is a bargain.

 

But the other 2020 1st picks have an established floor (excluding Drake if you think he's worth a 1st rounder)  to go along with upside. Unless you think he's some elite RB prospect youre essentially drafting solely on his situation. Also there's the whole COVID/lack of off-season and how it will affect rookies.

Edited by Evincar

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