thebadferret

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook

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Just now, turner46 said:

 

On my yahoo history in 2009 he went round 15 pick 5 in a ppr, Round 10 pick 1 in a non ppr and round 11 pick 6 in another non ppr league.

You are out to lunch on your wacky data, maybe your thinking 2010.

Could be.

Let me put it another way.

At some point, prior to him demonstrating elite value on the field, Shonn Greene was a highly drafted asset, in the first two rounds in yahoo.

There are a litany of other running backs who were drafted in the first two rounds with little to no on field production who have also failed.  I generally avoid them when there are other guys in those spots who have produced who I feel more comfortable with.

Better?

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31 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

Gotcha - fair enough - but I don't think Thompson or Darrell are anywhere near the talent that CEH is. I don't like that comparison. Darrell was undrafted. Thompson is 5th rounder, somewhat of a dart of throw. CEH is a record setting national champion level running back drafted in the 1st round by a RB coach guru.

As for, DW, you're right. He has shown great promise and talent when given the opportunity but Reid has also shown again and again he just doesn't seem to have much faith in DW. He brought in McCoy. Drafted Thompson, acquired Darrell. And now CEH. I think CEH is the future sooner in KC sooner than later and he is going to be a load in that offense with all of those weapons. It's actually pretty scary. The rich just got richer.

that’s a fine take-   Other than Reid has always shown faith in DW.   Injury has been the critical factor.   With this many weapons it will be whack a mole trying to discern when each goes off.   I feel good about Hill, Kelce, and Mahomes weekly.    The backs will rotate regularly.   Second round pick for that is STEEEEEEP

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6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

His predraft ranking were in that 11-13 range, I forget exactly where.

Those predraft rankings swung much more widely by site back in those days.  I'm not sure which sites that's pulling data from, if it's a composite I guess they were the outlier.

Regardless I'm just illustrating a point, if you like I could have said "I remember Montee Ball" or "I remember Cedric Benson" ad naseum.

If you remember that Shonn Greene was showing in the #11--#13 RB range in 2009, you were in an existing keeper league where a lot of RB's were already kept from the prior season. Or your memory is off.

Montee Ball was the #27 RB by ADP in 2013. Cedric Benson played too far back for any ADP results to be found. Also, neither Greene or Ball was a 1st round pick.

Overall, are there rookie RB's that have faltered, regardless of their fantasy ADP? Of course. But you're just picking examples to fit your narrative. One could easily point to Adrian Peterson or Ezekiel Elliott (amongst others) as two rookie RB's who excelled and were tremendous fantasy picks.

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Just now, Corleone said:

If you remember that Shonn Greene was showing in the #11--#13 RB range in 2009, you were in an existing keeper league where a lot of RB's were already kept from the prior season. Or your memory is off.

Montee Ball was the #27 RB by ADP in 2013. Cedric Benson played too far back for any ADP results to be found. Also, neither Greene or Ball was a 1st round pick.

Overall, are there rookie RB's that have faltered, regardless of their fantasy ADP? Of course. But you're just picking examples to fit your narrative. One could easily point to Adrian Peterson or Ezekiel Elliott (amongst others) as two rookie RB's who excelled and were tremendous fantasy picks.

I don't think you'll find a single person who watches college football who would tell you CEH is a comparable prospect to what AD and Zeke were in college.

It seems to me this is much more a result of situation than the player himself.

Maybe that works.  Maybe he's Kareem Hunt.

But in the second round I'm fairly certain I'll feel better about guys in that range than placing that bet.  But do you man.  Just giving you my thoughts.

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1 minute ago, Corleone said:

If you remember that Shonn Greene was showing in the #11--#13 RB range in 2009, you were in an existing keeper league where a lot of RB's were already kept from the prior season. Or your memory is off.

Montee Ball was the #27 RB by ADP in 2013. Cedric Benson played too far back for any ADP results to be found. Also, neither Greene or Ball was a 1st round pick.

Overall, are there rookie RB's that have faltered, regardless of their fantasy ADP? Of course. But you're just picking examples to fit your narrative. One could easily point to Adrian Peterson or Ezekiel Elliott (amongst others) as two rookie RB's who excelled and were tremendous fantasy picks.


those are generational talents lol.   Jacobs is a decent comp who went in the third-  and had no volume concerns. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't think you'll find a single person who watches college football who would tell you CEH is a comparable prospect to what AD and Zeke were in college.

It seems to me this is much more a result of situation than the player himself.

Maybe that works.  Maybe he's Kareem Hunt.

But in the second round I'm fairly certain I'll feel better about guys in that range than placing that bet.  But do you man.  Just giving you my thoughts.

I know you won't find a single person who watches college football who would compare CEH to Shonn Greene.

Your initial comment that I responded to was this:
"If he produced at the level that some folks are expecting to, I'd feel cool about drafting him in the 2nd in a 2021 draft.
I can't do rooks that early though.  Too many swings and misses.  I remember Shonn Greene."


Besides the fact that nobody was drafting rookie Shonn Greene early in fantasy, saying that rookie RB's should never be drafted in the first couple of fantasy rounds because Greene is an example of a rookie RB who didn't do anything, that just makes no sense. There are plenty of rookie RB's who have paid off in a big way.

10 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


those are generational talents lol.   Jacobs is a decent comp who went in the third-  and had no volume concerns. 

There are plenty of rookie RB's who have paid off in a big way. And that's the point here. Saying not to pick rookie RB's early because rookie RB's have too many misses (which is what he said to start this discussion) is flat-out false. 

Edited by Corleone

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6 minutes ago, Corleone said:

saying that rookie RB's should never be drafted in the first couple of fantasy rounds 

Didn't say that, I said I wouldn't.

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5 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I know you won't find a single person who watches college football who would compare CEH to Shonn Greene.

Your initial comment that I responded to was this:
"If he produced at the level that some folks are expecting to, I'd feel cool about drafting him in the 2nd in a 2021 draft.
I can't do rooks that early though.  Too many swings and misses.  I remember Shonn Greene."


Besides the fact that nobody was drafting rookie Shonn Greene early in fantasy, saying that rookie RB's should never be drafted in the first couple of fantasy rounds because Greene is an example of a rookie RB who didn't do anything, that just makes no sense. There are plenty of rookie RB's who have paid off in a big way.

There are plenty of rookie RB's who have paid off in a big way. And that's the point here. Saying not to pick rookie RB's early because rookie RB's have too many misses (which is what he said to start this discussion) is flat-out false. 


statistically speaking there are more rookies who don’t perform at an all pro level their first season than do.    Which is what you’re expecting by taking one in the second over proven,  elite talents.     Over Kelce and Mahomes most likely.   Over Drake,  A Jones,  MG3,  over a slew of WRs who will be focal points weekly.    I’d consider CEH in the fourth with other question marks.  

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


statistically speaking there are more rookies who don’t perform at an all pro level their first season than do.    Which is what you’re expecting by taking one in the second over proven,  elite talents.     Over Kelce and Mahomes most likely.   Over Drake,  A Jones,  MG3,  over a slew of WRs who will be focal points weekly.    I’d consider CEH in the fourth with other question marks.  

I'm not stating CEH should or shouldn't go in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts. My point is that for someone to say they wouldn't pick rookie RB's in the first two rounds, because of the likes of Shonn Greene (who went nowhere near the first two rounds in fantasy drafts), that makes zero sense.

Using examples of only failed rookie RB's (and rookie RB's who nothing much was expected from) to show why rookie RB's fail, that makes zero sense as well.

If you disagree with that, then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. 

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Just now, Corleone said:

I'm not stating CEH should or shouldn't go in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts. My point is that for someone to say they wouldn't pick rookie RB's in the first two rounds, because of the likes of Shonn Greene (who went nowhere near the first two rounds in fantasy drafts), that makes zero sense.

Using examples of only failed rookie RB's (and rookie RB's who nothing much was expected from) to show why rookie RB's fail, that makes zero sense as well.

If you disagree with that, then I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. 


Fair.  Absolutely agree there are circumstances that justify a rookie back going top 2 rounds.  I think @JE7HorseGod point was speaking to the debate about CEH in the second.   

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Fair.  Absolutely agree there are circumstances that justify a rookie back going top 2 rounds.  I think @JE7HorseGod point was speaking to the debate about CEH in the second.   

It didn't come across that way to me, in the below post in question:

1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

If he produced at the level that some folks are expecting to, I'd feel cool about drafting him in the 2nd in a 2021 draft.

I can't do rooks that early though.  Too many swings and misses.  I remember Shonn Greene.

Or this followup, where he reiterated his personal position on rookie RB's:

   20 minutes ago,  Corleone said: 

saying that rookie RB's should never be drafted in the first couple of fantasy rounds 

15 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Didn't say that, I said I wouldn't.

 

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5 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Fair.  Absolutely agree there are circumstances that justify a rookie back going top 2 rounds.  I think @JE7HorseGod point was speaking to the debate about CEH in the second.   

 

Josh Jacobs was a justifiable 2nd rounder last year by comparison but faltered near the fantasy championships.

 

CEH does not need a workhorse load to be a valuable fantasy asset his rookie season. In fact, sharing the load with Damien Williams will keep Helaire healthier for the fantasy playoffs where it would be most important.

 

There is RB2 value for an Andy Reid RB on 10-12 touches a game.

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Fair.  Absolutely agree there are circumstances that justify a rookie back going top 2 rounds.  I think @JE7HorseGod point was speaking to the debate about CEH in the second.   

Twas.  I misspoke about Shonn Greene and was wrong on that.

I'm risk averse early in drafts.  Taking CEH over say, Kenny Golladay would be too risky for me when he hasn't played a down in the NFL.  Maybe other people don't feel that way.  Maybe they'll be right.  Just my opinion.

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3 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Twas.  I misspoke about Shonn Greene and was wrong on that.

I'm risk averse early in drafts.  Taking CEH over say, Kenny Golladay would be too risky for me when he hasn't played a down in the NFL.  Maybe other people don't feel that way.  Maybe they'll be right.  Just my opinion.

Fair enough and I give you credit for the Greene acknowledgement here. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

But can he pass protect?

 

No rookies drafted in the first 3 rounds of a fantasy draft...that's like a rule

 

I raise you a Saquon Barkley!

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I did my research on CEH and liked a ton of what I saw pre draft, but I wanted to see what the NFL thought of him and his role, and what specific landing spot he would get.

 

Now, having seen his draft capital and landing spot, and seeing everything Reid, Veach, Bienemy, Mahomes are saying about this guy, and the reports of the other teams being pissed at him going off the board.......now Im sold. 

 

This kid has RB1 written all over him from the get go. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

But can he pass protect?


Am I the only one who has read and heard very contradictory reports about CEH in pass pro?


Like “he’s very good, better than many other top RB prospects,” to “he’s very bad, will prevent him from succeeding as a 3 down back”

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

I raise you a Saquon Barkley!

Once a generation talent Barkley did not produce first round production in his rookie year. He was close and is the outlier not the norm.

 

Doubt a rookie can handle blitz packages in Reid's pass heavy offense right from the get go...

Edited by Dr. Whom

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Once a generation talent Barkley did not produce first round production in his rookie year. He was close and is the outlier not the norm.

 

Doubt a rookie can handle blitz packages in Reid's pass heavy offense right from the get go...

 

What the hell are you talking about?  He was the 2nd highest scoring player in most formats his rookie year. 

Edited by Flynfiesta6
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7 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Once a generation talent Barkley did not produce first round production in his rookie year. He was close and is the outlier not the norm.

Barkley was a rookie in 2018. In 2018 PPR, Barkley outscored every player not named Patrick Mahomes. I'd say that was first round production.

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2 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

What the hell are you talking about?  He was the 2nd highest scoring player in most formats. 

We think alike, as you submitted a moment before me :) 

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1 minute ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

What the hell are you talking about?  He was the 2nd highest scoring player in most formats. 

Correct...I was looking at 2019 for some reason. 

 

I don't believe CEH will get that volume and be worth a top 3 round pick

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23 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Josh Jacobs was a justifiable 2nd rounder last year by comparison but faltered near the fantasy championships.

 

CEH does not need a workhorse load to be a valuable fantasy asset his rookie season. In fact, sharing the load with Damien Williams will keep Helaire healthier for the fantasy playoffs where it would be most important.

 

There is RB2 value for an Andy Reid RB on 10-12 touches a game.


Can’t predict how a rookie will fare 13 games into the season.   Implying Jacobs was anything other than a great pick for a rookie rb is misleading IMO.   
 

20th overall rb would be a great result for CEH.   He’s in a timeshare,  to what degree we will find out.    Smart players don’t take risks that in the second.    And you’re smart right cleats?  👀 
 

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9 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Barkley was a rookie in 2018. In 2018 PPR, Barkley outscored every player not named Patrick Mahomes. I'd say that was first round production.

Correct...Had the wrong year and CEH is not Barkley ( or is he? ). Don't mind eating crow as long as there is a season

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10 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Can’t predict how a rookie will fare 13 games into the season.   Implying Jacobs was anything other than a great pick for a rookie rb is misleading IMO.   
 

20th overall rb would be a great result for CEH.   He’s in a timeshare,  to what degree we will find out.    Smart players don’t take risks that in the second.    And you’re smart right cleats?  👀 
 

 

I'm intelligent enough to identify trends and latch on to them like a bulldog on a bone.

 

Trends that I have noticed through my years of watching and playing fantasy football

1. RBs taken in the first round of the NFL draft usually receive work immediately, coaches see them as being immediate contributors that is reflected in how highly they are selected.

2. Andy Reid, when he has a RB that he trusts and he believes in, has produced some of the best fantasy RBs during my lifetime to include but not limited to; Brian Westbrool, Lasean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Damien Williams, and now Clyde Edwards Helaire

3. Rookie RBs can often times falter near the fantasy playoffs with heavy useage so a RB in a timeshare for the beginning of the season is often times more advantageous than being the workhorse from day 1. I would call attention to last year when a workhorse of mine (Josh Jacobs) faltered late in the fantasy season while my opponents time share rookie (miles sanders) was much more effective during the fantasy playoffs 

 

 

 

You must be confusing real life RBs vs fantasy RBs. Of course Jacobs was a fabulous real life selection and an excellent fantasy contributor but as the season wore on longer than a college season he dinged his shoulder and caused him to fall off during the fantasy playoffs, which is a legit concern for rookies when evaluating whether they would be worth something like a 2nd round pick. 

 

So when looking at Helaire I reflect back on Andy Reid's fantastic history with fantasy RBs, I factor in the explosiveness of the KC offense, the scoring opportunities that will be available, the draft capital invested in him as a 1st round pick, the injury history of Damien Williams, and the college tape of CEH it all leads me to the conclusion that this young man can be a season long RB2 on 10-15 touches per game in KCs offense and he will stay relatively fresh come the money weeks AKA fantasy playoffs (weeks 14, 15, 16)

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