thebadferret

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I'm intelligent enough to identify trends and latch on to them like a bulldog on a bone.

 

Trends that I have noticed through my years of watching and playing fantasy football

1. RBs taken in the first round of the NFL draft usually receive work immediately, coaches see them as being immediate contributors that is reflected in how highly they are selected.

2. Andy Reid, when he has a RB that he trusts and he believes in, has produced some of the best fantasy RBs during my lifetime to include but not limited to; Brian Westbrool, Lasean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Damien Williams, and now Clyde Edwards Helaire

3. Rookie RBs can often times falter near the fantasy playoffs with heavy useage so a RB in a timeshare for the beginning of the season is often times more advantageous than being the workhorse from day 1. I would call attention to last year when a workhorse of mine (Josh Jacobs) faltered late in the fantasy season while my opponents time share rookie (miles sanders) was much more effective during the fantasy playoffs 

 

 

 

You must be confusing real life RBs vs fantasy RBs. Of course Jacobs was a fabulous real life selection and an excellent fantasy contributor but as the season wore on longer than a college season he dinged his shoulder and caused him to fall off during the fantasy playoffs, which is a legit concern for rookies when evaluating whether they would be worth something like a 2nd round pick. 

 

So when looking at Helaire I reflect back on Andy Reid's fantastic history with fantasy RBs, I factor in the explosiveness of the KC offense, the scoring opportunities that will be available, the draft capital invested in him as a 1st round pick, the injury history of Damien Williams, and the college tape of CEH it all leads me to the conclusion that this young man can be a season long RB2 on 10-15 touches per game in KCs offense and he will stay relatively fresh come the money weeks AKA fantasy playoffs (weeks 14, 15, 16)

Truthfully if he is drafted in the RB2 range I could see myself getting on board with that.

Early ADP has:

Round 1

1.) CMAC

2.) Barkley

3.) Kamara

4.) Cook

5.) Zeke

6.) Mixon

7.) Fournette

Round 2

8.) Jacobs

9.) Chubb

10.) Henry

11.) Jones

12.) MGIII

Round 3

13.) Carson

14.) Sanders

15.) Bell

16.) Conner

Round 4

17.) Singletary

18.) Ekeler

19.) Ingram

20.) Montgomery

21.) Mack

22.) Johnson

Round 5

23.) Drake

24.) Lindsay

 

So in that Round 4 tier for instance, there are some guys I'd like more and some I might like less.  But it'd be a stretch to say I'd see him displacing the top 12, for me at least.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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8 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Truthfully if he is drafted in the RB2 range I could see myself getting on board with that.

Early ADP has:

Round 1

1.) CMAC

2.) Barkley

3.) Kamara

4.) Cook

5.) Zeke

6.) Mixon

7.) Fournette

Round 2

8.) Jacobs

9.) Chubb

10.) Henry

11.) Jones

12.) MGIII

Round 3

13.) Carson

14.) Sanders

15.) Bell

16.) Conner

Round 4

17.) Singletary

18.) Ekeler

19.) Ingram

20.) Montgomery

21.) Mack

22.) Johnson

Round 5

23.) Drake

24.) Lindsay

 

So in that Round 4 tier for instance, there are some guys I'd like more and some I might like less.  But it'd be a stretch to say I'd see him displacing the top 12, for me at least.

Drake in round 5?     Holy cow sign me up 

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Posted (edited)
Just now, Impreza178 said:

Drake in round 5?     Holy cow sign me up 

LOL, yeah that'll probably not keep.

I could probably see less enthusiasm on MGIII and Fournette and more on him and Singletary for instance, but rough guidelines, when we use terms like "RB1" or "round 2" these are kind of the guidelines right now...

Edited by JE7HorseGod

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10 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Truthfully if he is drafted in the RB2 range I could see myself getting on board with that.

Early ADP has:

Round 1

1.) CMAC

2.) Barkley

3.) Kamara

4.) Cook

5.) Zeke

6.) Mixon

7.) Fournette

Round 2

8.) Jacobs

9.) Chubb

10.) Henry

11.) Jones

12.) MGIII

Round 3

13.) Carson

14.) Sanders

15.) Bell

16.) Conner

Round 4

17.) Singletary

18.) Ekeler

19.) Ingram

20.) Montgomery

21.) Mack

22.) Johnson

Round 5

23.) Drake

24.) Lindsay

 

So in that Round 4 tier for instance, there are some guys I'd like more and some I might like less.  But it'd be a stretch to say I'd see him displacing the top 12, for me at least.

 

Sleeping on Drake, eh?

 

I'd put him above Mixon

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

LOL, yeah that'll probably not keep.

I could probably see less enthusiasm on MGII and Fournette and more on him and Singletary for instance, but rough guidelines, when we use terms like "RB1" or "round 2" these are kind of the guidelines right now...


yeah I got ya...   And not the point of this thread anyway.  CEH belongs in that 4th tier.  
 

drake goes in tier 2 for me.  Fournette on Jax stays put.    Derrick Henry is too low.  There could be some movement based on where the top 4 rookie rbs go here shortly.    
 

Edited by Impreza178

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5 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


yeah I got ya...   And not the point of this thread anyway.  CEH belongs in that 4th tier.  
 

drake goes in tier 2 for me.  Fournette on Jax stays put.    Derrick Henry is too low.  There could be some movement based on where the top 4 rookie rbs go here shortly.    
 

If one of the "big 4" go the Bucs I'd think that guy would be in mix as well.

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48 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


statistically speaking there are more rookies who don’t perform at an all pro level their first season than do.    Which is what you’re expecting by taking one in the second over proven,  elite talents.     Over Kelce and Mahomes most likely.   Over Drake,  A Jones,  MG3,  over a slew of WRs who will be focal points weekly.    I’d consider CEH in the fourth with other question marks.  

 

Sure, but a decent RB in fantasy football doesn't have to be all pro. CEH is a first round rookie, and he is likely to win the starting job.

I'm sure we all agree that CEH is not sitting on the bench for a superior running back (like Deangelo williams did, for example). He'll play a fair bit, even if he splits carries w/ Damien williams.

 

I was bored enough to search first round rookie RBs with a minimum of 120 carries since the 2000 season:

rookierbs1stround.jpg

 

For context,

Damien williams was averaging 13 pts a game last season, Lesean mccoy around 10. Where will CEH finish on that list?

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17 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Sure, but a decent RB in fantasy football doesn't have to be all pro. CEH is a first round rookie, and he is likely to win the starting job.

I'm sure we all agree that CEH is not sitting on the bench for a superior running back (like Deangelo williams did, for example). He'll play a fair bit, even if he splits carries w/ Damien williams.

 

I was bored enough to search first round rookie RBs with a minimum of 120 carries since the 2000 season:

rookierbs1stround.jpg

 

For context,

Damien williams was averaging 13 pts a game last season, Lesean mccoy around 10. Where will CEH finish on that list?

Excellent info. And just to add to this, there can be successful fantasy RB's with under 120 carries as well. CMC had 117 carries as a rookie and was a RB1 in PPR leagues (thanks in large part to his abilities as a receiving RB...which is a big asset for CEH himself). 

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4 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Excellent info. And just to add to this, there can be successful fantasy RB's with under 120 carries as well. CMC had 117 carries as a rookie and was a RB1 in PPR leagues (thanks in large part to his abilities as a receiving RB...which is a big asset for CEH himself). 

 

Yeah i just noticed. Mccaffrey is 13th on that list. Between josh jacobs and jamal lewis

Here's the same list with 100 minimum carries instead of 120: Link

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I'm usually in the camp that is somewhat against drafting rookie RBs early. That being said, i'll be all over CEH as long as his ADP doesn't become too absurd. However, the second round or later count me in.

The dude is a perfect fit for the Chiefs and is a damn good back. He can catch, is a very good and patient runner, and will be decent enough blocking. When Reid wants a guy he goes for him and it's not hard to see why he wanted CEH.

Williams doesn't worry me at all. He isn't a very good NFL RB. That's just the reality. He does certain things well which will have him result to being a COP back which is what his role should be. Reid isn't going to waste a first round pick on a back just to have him split carries with Williams. 

I don't expect him to get absurd carries but I would expect him to average around 14 per game with a very good YPC in this offense combined with his talent. Williams was able to average 4.5 YPC and he isn't on the same planet when it comes to running the ball as CEH. 

1050 rushing yards with 6-10 TDs and 70/600/4-6 on the receiving end is in line with what I would expect. If Williams gets phased out which wouldn't surprise me at all pushing the rushing yards to the 1,300 mark wouldn't be out of the question.

Yeah, sign me up. 

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1 hour ago, predator_05 said:

 

Sure, but a decent RB in fantasy football doesn't have to be all pro. CEH is a first round rookie, and he is likely to win the starting job.

I'm sure we all agree that CEH is not sitting on the bench for a superior running back (like Deangelo williams did, for example). He'll play a fair bit, even if he splits carries w/ Damien williams.

 

I was bored enough to search first round rookie RBs with a minimum of 120 carries since the 2000 season:

rookierbs1stround.jpg

 

For context,

Damien williams was averaging 13 pts a game last season, Lesean mccoy around 10. Where will CEH finish on that list?

where would hunt have landed on the list if he was a first rounder?

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Josh Jacobs was a justifiable 2nd rounder last year by comparison but faltered near the fantasy championships.

 

CEH does not need a workhorse load to be a valuable fantasy asset his rookie season. In fact, sharing the load with Damien Williams will keep Helaire healthier for the fantasy playoffs where it would be most important.

 

There is RB2 value for an Andy Reid RB on 10-12 touches a game.

 

If Im drafting a rookie RB in the early rounds, I would feel a lot safer if he was a workhorse. KC RBs were hyped quite a lot last season and that didnt turn out so well. Im out on CEH if his ADP skyrockets. 

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43 minutes ago, Flyers_28 said:

where would hunt have landed on the list if he was a first rounder?

 

229 ppr pts, 14.3 ppr pts/game.

Note he had a different QB also.

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59 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

There's no way that has been updated. Lindsay at 55? DJ Moore at 75?

Im pretty sure its just been bots autodrafting. Once actual humans start doing it, it will correct.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Truthfully if he is drafted in the RB2 range I could see myself getting on board with that.

Early ADP has:

Round 1

1.) CMAC

2.) Barkley

3.) Kamara

4.) Cook

5.) Zeke

6.) Mixon

7.) Fournette

Round 2

8.) Jacobs

9.) Chubb

10.) Henry

11.) Jones

12.) MGIII

Round 3

13.) Carson

14.) Sanders

15.) Bell

16.) Conner

Round 4

17.) Singletary

18.) Ekeler

19.) Ingram

20.) Montgomery

21.) Mack

22.) Johnson

Round 5

23.) Drake

24.) Lindsay

 

So in that Round 4 tier for instance, there are some guys I'd like more and some I might like less.  But it'd be a stretch to say I'd see him displacing the top 12, for me at least.

Wtf are these rankings drake at 23 in full ppr? Conner at 16? MG3 a top 12 back?

 

With all that said, in redraft I will not draft him until the 3rd/4th as he will probably not make much of an impact until November/December. So buy low, ala miles sanders last year, but better.

Edited by nmartinez12443

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

If Im drafting a rookie RB in the early rounds, I would feel a lot safer if he was a workhorse. KC RBs were hyped quite a lot last season and that didnt turn out so well. Im out on CEH if his ADP skyrockets. 

Damian Williams didn’t turn out because he’s not good at running the ball. He never was good.

You aren’t drafting CEH early just because he’s a Chiefs RB. Your drafting him early because he’s a Chiefs RB AND he’s damn good at football. 

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8 hours ago, Impreza178 said:


he’s MJD but smaller and slower.


Slower...yes. But not smaller.

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7 hours ago, Impreza178 said:


I mean Reid has drafted many busts.. including 2 last draft.  Thompson and Darrell.   And DW was electric during their playoff run.
 

CEH is also pretty terrible in pass pro- which is usually a rbs ticket to playing time early.  Prepare to watch a frustrating time share.  


One, which Darrell was a draft bust? Darrel Williams? He was an UDFA. 

Two, will CEH have to work on pass pro? Sure...every rookie does. But he was not “pretty terrible” at it at LSU. 

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16 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Damian Williams didn’t turn out because he’s not good at running the ball. He never was good.

You aren’t drafting CEH early just because he’s a Chiefs RB. Your drafting him early because he’s a Chiefs RB AND he’s damn good at football. 

DW is also pretty good at football

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5 hours ago, LostAtSea said:

I did my research on CEH and liked a ton of what I saw pre draft, but I wanted to see what the NFL thought of him and his role, and what specific landing spot he would get.

 

Now, having seen his draft capital and landing spot, and seeing everything Reid, Veach, Bienemy, Mahomes are saying about this guy, and the reports of the other teams being pissed at him going off the board.......now Im sold. 

 

This kid has RB1 written all over him from the get go. 


I wouldn’t go that far. I do believe he’ll take over the backfield by the end of the season, but he’s not a fantasy RB1 in 2020. Not imho. 

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Damian Williams didn’t turn out because he’s not good at running the ball. He never was good.

You aren’t drafting CEH early just because he’s a Chiefs RB. Your drafting him early because he’s a Chiefs RB AND he’s damn good at football. 

 

I think CEH is a great system back that's going to the best offense. I dont see him as a better prospect than Swift or Taylor.

Edited by Evincar

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2 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

If Im drafting a rookie RB in the early rounds, I would feel a lot safer if he was a workhorse. KC RBs were hyped quite a lot last season and that didnt turn out so well. Im out on CEH if his ADP skyrockets. 


Last year’s KC RB hype has no bearing on this season. Damien couldn’t stay healthy, Darrel is just not a starting NFL RB. McCoy was aging. Darwin was a 5th rd pick who couldn’t adjust and was a end-of-bench lottery pick, at best. This is going to be CEH’s and Damien’s backfield in 2020, assuming health. Darrel will be a distant 3rd RB. 

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