thebadferret

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

I think CEH is a great system back that's going to the best offense. I dont see him as a better prospect than Swift or Taylor.


I’m not going to say CEH is a better prospect or raw talent than Swift or Taylor or Dobbins. But I will say that I believe he’s more than a system back. He doesn’t have great top-end speed, but he is a very good RB. Vision, quick, tough, great cuts, quick to and thru the hole, can break tackles, sets up blocks, good hands, good in pass pro. And while this can’t be measured at the combine or a pro day, he plays with all of his heart. He’s a guy who was told all his life that he couldn’t and that he was too small. Dude has the heart of a lion. I’m not saying he’s going to be a HOFer, but I do believe he’s more than just a system back. Jmho :)

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4 minutes ago, kdko said:

Bye bye Damien Williams


Not quite yet. I believe Damien will still be very involved as long as he stays healthy. If CEH is who Reid believes he is, it’ll be bye bye Damien in 2021. 

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33 minutes ago, BMcP said:

DW is also pretty good at football

He’s decent receiving but as a runner he’s JAG at best. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

He’s decent receiving but as a runner he’s JAG at best. 

I agree with you on rushing.  But I mean, let’s give him some love!  He does a good job of producing with his touches!

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59 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Not quite yet. I believe Damien will still be very involved as long as he stays healthy. If CEH is who Reid believes he is, it’ll be bye bye Damien in 2021. 

Flyman, you know LSU football better than anyone, but when I watched CEH he seemed so electric. I got Sproles vibes. Do you think he could be Hunt 2.0, same, better, worse?

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5 hours ago, BMcP said:

I agree with you on rushing.  But I mean, let’s give him some love!  He does a good job of producing with his touches!

 

Meh, thats Andy Reid for ya.

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 13 hours ago, Flyers_28 said:

where would hunt have landed on the list if he was a first rounder?

 

4th. in front of Adrian peterson

18.45 ppg

 

Here's the list of rookie RBs drafted rounds 1-3 with a minimum of 120 carries: Link

 

11 hours ago, BMcP said:

DW is also pretty good at football

 

11 hours ago, Flyman75 said:


Not quite yet. I believe Damien will still be very involved as long as he stays healthy. If CEH is who Reid believes he is, it’ll be bye bye Damien in 2021.

 

I get why CEH is overrated. I haven't watched him play, so i'll take everyone's word for it.

 

I don't know how good CEH actually is (or could be). So i won't get into predicting whether he'll be an RB1 or RB2 as a starter.

 

But if he's good, winning the job ahead of a perennial back-up like Damien williams shouldn't be difficult. At all

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17 hours ago, predator_05 said:

 

Sure, but a decent RB in fantasy football doesn't have to be all pro. CEH is a first round rookie, and he is likely to win the starting job.

I'm sure we all agree that CEH is not sitting on the bench for a superior running back (like Deangelo williams did, for example). He'll play a fair bit, even if he splits carries w/ Damien williams.

 

I was bored enough to search first round rookie RBs with a minimum of 120 carries since the 2000 season:

rookierbs1stround.jpg

 

For context,

Damien williams was averaging 13 pts a game last season, Lesean mccoy around 10. Where will CEH finish on that list?


What you’ve demonstrated is that a rookie rb who comes in and has a big role- in the right situation-  can be every bit as impactful as a vet.  All the top guys on that list came in as 250(or much more) touch bellcows who hardly missed a game.   With the exception of Reggie Bush-  who only started 8 games and didn’t crack rb2 on the year.   


That is simply not how Reid and the Chiefs roll.  Injury could change things...but their goal is to have multiple backs familiar with the system healthy when crunch time comes. Not justify CEHs draft position by feeding him 25 touches a game.  Bigger fish to fry.  Even the third back on KC will likely have more of a role than traditional third backs will. Lots of killing clock and injuries.   I also disagree that DW will be yesterday’s trash.   He’s fantastic when healthy and Big Red certainly trusts him.  He knows and fits this offense like a glove.  
 

going off 2019, KC had about 450 rb touches available.  I’d break them out like so: 
 

DW- 225 touches 

CEH- 150

Darrel/Darwin-  75

 

CEH in the second round would be a poor investment in this case-  which I see as the most likely case. 

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


What you’ve demonstrated is that a rookie rb who comes in and has a big role- in the right situation-  can be every bit as impactful as a vet.  All the top guys on that list came in as 250(or much more) touch bellcows who hardly missed a game.   With the exception of Reggie Bush-  who only started 8 games and didn’t crack rb2 on the year.   


That is simply not how Reid and the Chiefs roll.  Injury could change things...but their goal is to have multiple backs familiar with the system healthy when crunch time comes. Not justify CEHs draft position by feeding him 25 touches a game.  Bigger fish to fry.  Even the third back on KC will likely have more of a role than traditional third backs will. Lots of killing clock and injuries.   I also disagree that DW will be yesterday’s trash.   He’s fantastic when healthy and Big Red certainly trusts him.  He knows and fits this offense like a glove.  
 

going off 2019, KC had about 450 rb touches available.  I’d break them out like so: 
 

DW- 225 touches 

CEH- 150

Darrel/Darwin-  75

 

CEH in the second round would be a poor investment in this case-  which I see as the most likely case. 

 

Reid uses multiple backs when he doesn't have a proper RB1.

Westbrook, mcCoy, charles, hunt got a full workload.

Damien williams, spencer ware, charcandrick west, etc. shared carries.

Its not about justifying draft position, its about featuring a good running back when you happen to have one. If you don't, you run a committee.

 

Is CEH a good running back? I don't know. But the list is useful if you think CEH gets 200+ touches. And that's reasonable to assume, because he handled 270 in his last year of college. Its also useful to those that might think of Damien williams as a dollar-store placeholder instead of a 'fantastic' RB1.

 

Speaking of which...has DW ever handled 225 plays in his entire career? Most he ever had in the NFL was 141 (last year). And you have to go back to 2012 (in college) to find a season when he had 200+ touches. 225 for Damien williams belongs in the "bold prediction" thread.

Edited by predator_05
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7 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Reid uses multiple backs when he doesn't have a proper RB1.

Westbrook, mcCoy, charles, hunt got a full workload.

Damien williams, spencer ware, charcandrick west, etc. shared carries.

Its not about justifying draft position, its about featuring a good running back when you happen to have one. If you don't, you run a committee.

 

Is CEH a good running back? I don't know. But the list is useful if you think CEH gets 200+ touches. And that's reasonable to assume, because he handled 270 in his last year of college. Its also useful to those that might think of Damien williams as a dollar-store placeholder instead of a 'fantastic' RB1.

 

Speaking of which...has DW ever handled 225 plays in his entire career? Most he ever had in the NFL was 141 (last year). And you have to go back to 2012 (in college) to find a season when he had 200+ touches. 225 for Damien williams belongs in the "bold prediction" thread.


Context > Stat Hounds 

 

Hunt got the heavy rookie workload because BOTH KC rbs ahead of him went down with major injury before the season.  I don’t doubt his success eventually-  but no way he gets that load without those injuries

J Charles averaged just under 12 carries/game for his career.  90 touches his rookie season.  Always a guy who did more with less.  
 

DW has only been a starter one full season in the nfl.   Injury was a big factor- as I already noted in the previous post.   But he’s handled big workloads in short bursts quite competently.   Other than Mahomes,  he was the playoff MVP.   No indication he isn’t a good fit.   


 

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18 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Truthfully if he is drafted in the RB2 range I could see myself getting on board with that.

Early ADP has:

Round 1

1.) CMAC

2.) Barkley

3.) Kamara

4.) Cook

5.) Zeke

6.) Mixon

7.) Fournette

Round 2

8.) Jacobs

9.) Chubb

10.) Henry

11.) Jones

12.) MGIII

Round 3

13.) Carson

14.) Sanders

15.) Bell

16.) Conner

Round 4

17.) Singletary

18.) Ekeler

19.) Ingram

20.) Montgomery

21.) Mack

22.) Johnson

Round 5

23.) Drake

24.) Lindsay

 

So in that Round 4 tier for instance, there are some guys I'd like more and some I might like less.  But it'd be a stretch to say I'd see him displacing the top 12, for me at least.

Henry belongs in round 1 dude is a beast & far better than Mixon. 

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10 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Context > Stat Hounds 

 

Hunt got the heavy rookie workload because BOTH KC rbs ahead of him went down with major injury before the season.  I don’t doubt his success eventually-  but no way he gets that load without those injuries

J Charles averaged just under 12 carries/game for his career.  90 touches his rookie season.  Always a guy who did more with less.  
 

DW has only been a starter one full season in the nfl.   Injury was a big factor- as I already noted in the previous post.   But he’s handled big workloads in short bursts quite competently.   Other than Mahomes,  he was the playoff MVP.   No indication he isn’t a good fit.   


 

 

But charles wasn't in a committee w/ reid, he handled 300+ plays. and he backed up Larry johnson as a rookie, who was a little more accomplished than damien williams.

 

Have you considered that maybe...Damien williams was never a starter in the NFL because he was never good enough? Maybe that's why he's only ever effective in 'short bursts' ? Maybe he's more likely to get injured because he has no experience of handling over 140 touches a season? I don't know.

 

if DW finishes w/ 210+ touches, he'll be doing so for the first time ever in his career (college + NFL). I'll believe it when i see it. Until then, skepticism is reasonable.

 

Playoff MVP? so was deion branch. Average players occasionally over-achieve on good teams. They're still average. Theres your context... 😀 😀

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8 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

But charles wasn't in a committee w/ reid, he handled 300+ plays. and he backed up Larry johnson as a rookie, who was a little more accomplished than damien williams.

 

Have you considered that maybe...Damien williams was never a starter in the NFL because he was never good enough? Maybe that's why he's only ever effective in 'short bursts' ? Maybe he's more likely to get injured because he has no experience of handling over 140 touches a season? I don't know.

 

if DW finishes w/ 210+ touches, he'll be doing so for the first time ever in his career (college + NFL). I'll believe it when i see it. Until then, skepticism is reasonable.

 

Playoff MVP? so was deion branch. Average players occasionally over-achieve on good teams. They're still average. Theres your context... 😀 😀


Pred- we will have to agree to disagree my friend.  Skepticism on this entire backfield is warranted for 2020.   Far too much to pass over proven studs in the second.  
 

 If CEH picks up the offense quickly,  and shows improved pass pro as well as explosiveness to compliment his small space shiftiness...then I’ll be a believer in 2021.   The chiefs can cut DW and full steam ahead. Long term I think he will be a success.      
 

Enjoy day 3 of the draft today!  

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anyone who has Mahomes in dynasty have a problem with drafting this guy 1.1?  Im usually not a fan of having QB/RB from same team but may make an exception for KC QB/RB!  

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I hate this backfield. I guess it's still Damien's backfield for now, but I'm not touching any chiefs RB's unless I'm desperate

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2 minutes ago, Chippa said:

I hate this backfield. I guess it's still Damien's backfield for now, but I'm not touching any chiefs RB's unless I'm desperate


Draft started two days ago. Might want to go catch up on it

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Big Tuna said:

anyone who has Mahomes in dynasty have a problem with drafting this guy 1.1?  Im usually not a fan of having QB/RB from same team but may make an exception for KC QB/RB!  


In dynasty,  I have the rookies as such:

1-JT

2-Dobbins

3- Akers

4- CEH

5- Swift 

 

any of these are great picks in the top 5 IMO.   Doesn’t matter who your qb is 
if you can finagle another top 5 pick....even better.  

 

Edited by Impreza178

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Newsflash , any half-way decent RB will do wonders on this KC offense. Basically saying D.Will is nothing special

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:


Pred- we will have to agree to disagree my friend.  Skepticism on this entire backfield is warranted for 2020.   Far too much to pass over proven studs in the second.  
 

 If CEH picks up the offense quickly,  and shows improved pass pro as well as explosiveness to compliment his small space shiftiness...then I’ll be a believer in 2021.   The chiefs can cut DW and full steam ahead. Long term I think he will be a success.      
 

Enjoy day 3 of the draft today!  

 

Its possible that i'm too low on Williams, but time will tell.

 

The scenario you're describing in the context of ADP is 100% on the money when discussing Taylor or Dobbins. In redraft, those guys are mid-round fliers at best, because we know Mack and Ingram are respectable RBs. But those rookies can easily win you a championship if they become starters...

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22 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

Newsflash , any half-way decent RB will do wonders on this KC offense. Basically saying D.Will is nothing special


DWill is a special receiver. That’s the key. It’s all about when CEH learns everything so Reid can trust him not to get Mahomes killed in pass pro.

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Once a generation talent Barkley did not produce first round production in his rookie year. 

 

Wait what?

 

Saquan was RB 1 his rookie year.

Edited by dmb3684

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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:


DWill is a special receiver. That’s the key. It’s all about when CEH learns everything so Reid can trust him not to get Mahomes killed in pass pro.

 

Why does he have 138 catches over 6 years? Doesn't seem very special. He's a good reciever. For sure not 'special'.

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if mccoy could have held onto the ball last year dwill would have barely played 

im not worried about him at all 

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