thebadferret

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook

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I noticed a few things today vs previous games.

1) there o-line created holes - big ones - for the first time in a long time

2) CEH looked like he had a burst today on some runs

3) The weather looked like it was affecting the passing game a bit - even Mahomes.  The run was working well so they fed CEH.

 

All those things combined - but mostly #1 IMO - led to a good game for CEH.  I did wince at the almost-fumble at the end as that will not help him earn playing time when they want to preserve a lead.  But overall a good game at a good time for CEH. 

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Jag.  Mahomes mailed it in for 225.  They force fed him 30 touches against a defense that was letting them run.  How many more times is that gonna happen.  

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12 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

I really hope I’m wrong. I want him to be successful but I just see too many negatives and not enough positives. No goal line work, not catching enough passes, has not been successful from the goal line when given chances. And now they bring in a big time name like Leveon bell. It doesn’t matter even if he’s not 2017 bell. He has some juice left. He’s too young to not have anything left in the tank and they are going to give him a lot of looks. Now if this team ran the ball like the browns and had the game go through their RBs I wouldn’t be as worried. But it’s just not the case. This team goes through mahomes. Todays game was an outlier.  

 

I agree with a lot of this but Bell is NOT young for a RB.  Plus, very few RBs have had the massive workloads that Bell has had in the past.

I dunno guys.  We'll see what happens.  It's a week to week game.  I believe week 7, CEH is safe to start as an RB2 and then we will have a sense of what Reid is gonna do.  IMO, Bell is probably too good not to take some of the work, but I believe it is absolutely insane to think that Bell is going to take the job the first week he is here.  That's just dumb.  He doesn't even know the playbook.

If they play at their current levels, I think it is a 60-40 timeshare with CEH getting the bigger piece.  This is subject to change based on their performance or injury (obviously).

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1 minute ago, Rickydragon said:

Jag.  Mahomes mailed it in for 225.  They force fed him 30 touches against a defense that was letting them run.  How many more times is that gonna happen.  

Bell owner spotted 

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10 minutes ago, affliction said:

Bell owner spotted 

Nope.  18 fantasy points on 30 touches is a jag.  Buffalo was giving them gaping holes just so Mahomes wouldn’t hurt them.  CEH stilll couldn’t take one to the house.  The scrub back up rb was able to take to one to the house.  

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1 minute ago, Rickydragon said:

Nope.  18 fantasy points on 30 touches is a jag.  Buffalo was giving them gaping holes just so Mahomes wouldn’t hurt them.  CEH stilll couldn’t take one to the house.  The scrub back up rb was able to take to one to the house.  

Yeah ok...

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7 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

Nope.  18 fantasy points on 30 touches is a jag.  Buffalo was giving them gaping holes just so Mahomes wouldn’t hurt them.  CEH stilll couldn’t take one to the house.  The scrub back up rb was able to take to one to the house.  

CEH actually did take it to the house. Another off the ball offensive line hold (his 3rd to cost him a TD?) only stopped him. 

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10 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

Nope.  18 fantasy points on 30 touches is a jag.  Buffalo was giving them gaping holes just so Mahomes wouldn’t hurt them.  CEH stilll couldn’t take one to the house.  The scrub back up rb was able to take to one to the house.  


Are you serious with this take??

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28 minutes ago, affliction said:

Bell owner spotted 

He probably lost tonight because of CEH. Either he didn't get him the 40 points he needed to win, or CEH beat him by 2 points. 

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1 hour ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

Gotta give him more credit then that. I don’t even consider players from the Jets humans. They are more like matter that’s just occupying space. He was decent last year and before that was arguably the best back in the league. If anyone thinks Bell is like Fournette I think you are in for a surprise. 

 

Weird comparison given how Fournette was actually able to overcome his terrible team last season to post good numbers.

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14 minutes ago, MrPositive said:

CEH actually did take it to the house. Another off the ball offensive line hold (his 3rd to cost him a TD?) only stopped him. 

To be fair, the hold was the lineman tackling the guy who would have made the tackle

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2 hours ago, Buckmcbuck said:

He didn't run out of bounds... what else did you see? I mean if he hadn't rushed for 161 yards and caught everything thrown at him, I'd be more worried about that mental error. 

 

I believe he was out on the field on the final drive which is a good sign after the near fumble.

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15 minutes ago, MrPositive said:

CEH actually did take it to the house. Another off the ball offensive line hold (his 3rd to cost him a TD?) only stopped him. 

It was a walk in that was obviously called back.  Are you really impressed by that?  Yes, theoretically he should fall into the end zone a lot in this offense but he’s a jag when the defense actually plays the run.  They grounded Mahomes in this game which is obviously an aberration.  

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

It was a walk in that was obviously called back.  Are you really impressed by that?  Yes, theoretically he should fall into the end zone a lot in this offense but he’s a jag when the defense actually plays the run.  They grounded Mahomes in this game which is obviously an aberration.  

 

 

 

 

 

Says the Bell apologist and probable owner....

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1 hour ago, BigBlueMachine said:

I noticed a few things today vs previous games.

1) there o-line created holes - big ones - for the first time in a long time

2) CEH looked like he had a burst today on some runs

3) The weather looked like it was affecting the passing game a bit - even Mahomes.  The run was working well so they fed CEH.

 

All those things combined - but mostly #1 IMO - led to a good game for CEH.  I did wince at the almost-fumble at the end as that will not help him earn playing time when they want to preserve a lead.  But overall a good game at a good time for CEH. 

 

The line might have looked the best it has run blocking all year but the Bills were also missing some guys in their front 7 so we'll see how to goes moving forward.

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2 hours ago, kp96 said:

 

I agree with a lot of this but Bell is NOT young for a RB.  Plus, very few RBs have had the massive workloads that Bell has had in the past.

I dunno guys.  We'll see what happens.  It's a week to week game.  I believe week 7, CEH is safe to start as an RB2 and then we will have a sense of what Reid is gonna do.  IMO, Bell is probably too good not to take some of the work, but I believe it is absolutely insane to think that Bell is going to take the job the first week he is here.  That's just dumb.  He doesn't even know the playbook.

If they play at their current levels, I think it is a 60-40 timeshare with CEH getting the bigger piece.  This is subject to change based on their performance or injury (obviously).

Bell is 28. Plenty of RBs had their best seasons at that age. He also took all of 2018 off and he wasn’t exactly a workhorse RB on the jets. The big number for RBs is 30yo where most fall off from their peak. But even then some have had great seasons at 30. Bell should have more than enough tread on his tires. Maybe not peak level bell. But enough. Reid was excited about McCoy who was 31 last year and gave him plenty of run. Also no one is talking about him taking the job away his first week. We’re talking about the rest of the season here.

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3 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Bell is 28. Plenty of RBs had their best seasons at that age. He also took all of 2017 off and he wasn’t exactly a workhorse RB on the jets. The big number for RBs is 30yo where most fall off from their peak. But even then some have had great seasons at 30. 

 

Only 12% have peak seasons at 28.  https://apexfantasyleagues.com/2018/01/peak-age-nfl-running-back/

After 29 there is a huge dropoff.

I'm not saying it's impossible for Bell to have a great year.  I AM saying that he is old for the position.  The article I linked spells that out very clearly.  24 is the best age and it declines somewhat from there, so Bell is absolutely over the hill for a RB.

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People calling him JAG are either blind or pushing an agenda. And I say this as someone who thinks his role is going to have only so-so fantasy value going forward this season. The kid can play. 

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1 minute ago, kp96 said:

 

Only 12% have peak seasons at 28.  https://apexfantasyleagues.com/2018/01/peak-age-nfl-running-back/

After 29 there is a huge dropoff.

I'm not saying it's impossible for Bell to have a great year.  I AM saying that he is old for the position.  The article I linked spells that out very clearly.  24 is the best age and it declines somewhat from there, so Bell is absolutely over the hill for a RB.

https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27
 

We can find a million different articles trying to prove each other wrong. ESPN is saying they have their peak seasons at 27 then drop off about 15% by age 28. Bell missed a whole year of football too. It’s possible he is close to his peak. Even if he’s not 15% off his peak is still one of the better RBs in the NFL.

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7 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27
 

We can find a million different articles trying to prove each other wrong. ESPN is saying they have their peak seasons at 27 then drop off about 15% by age 28. Bell missed a whole year of football too. It’s possible he is close to his peak. Even if he’s not 15% off his peak is still one of the better RBs in the NFL.

 

He's not young.  Even the article you just cited shows that he's on the wrong side of the hill.  Doesn't mean he can't have the best year of his career, but it is less likely than if he was 24 or 25.  That's all I'm saying and the article you just posted agrees with me, not you.

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15 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

People calling him JAG are either blind or pushing an agenda. And I say this as someone who thinks his role is going to have only so-so fantasy value going forward this season. The kid can play. 

 

Agree.  I don't think anybody really knows what happens after week 8.  CEH should be a safe start week 7 because I can't imagine Bell learning the offense in 4 days.  He joins the team Wednesday.  He'll probably be in some sub packages to get his feet wet.  

After that it's questionable but it's almost not worth it to try to guess.  Just look at the 2 biggest RB arguments in the last 2 seasons.

1.  McCoy vs. Damien Williams 2019 - it started off as somewhat of a split but Damien gets hurt, then McCoy forgets to hold onto the ball.  In the end, nobody is happy with either guy.

2.  Fournette vs. Rojo 2020 - Fournette has a huge game after Rojo blows it and it looks like he's taking over, but then he gets hurt after a lackluster follow up game, and now it's Rojo's job.

There is a decent chance that injury is going to play a role here, just as it has for Hunt / Chubb, for instance.  If there is no injury, then it's about who performs better.  Frankly, I have trouble believing that CEH has a short leash after rushing for 170 yards tonight.  But trying to guess week 8 and beyond is almost futile just because there are so many variables.  Who knows, maybe Bell starts acting like a diva like Adrian Peterson did on New Orleans, and Andy Reid gives him even less reps just bc he doesn't like him.  You never know what's going to happen here.

 

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