thebadferret

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook

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1 minute ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

name the stakes, we'll take it to a wager ... i will back my assertion up with plenty of coin, ya hear?


Oh yeah

 

I’ve been waiting to get ahold of those Pastorpennies....

 

PM me 

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20 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Optimism 

 

makes life easier to bear 

 

We're all guessing.  Week 7 CEH is safe because Bell will have only been on the team for 4 days.  He might be in some sub packages but that's about it, especially with CEH coming off a 160 yard rushing game.  No need to throw Bell in there right away.

After week 8, we will see.  All of us tend to look at the situation through the lens of what we want to happen for our fantasy team.  We should think about what Reid will do.  Reid doesn't give a crap about stats.  He wants another championship.  He will do not only what will help his team win the next game, but also what's best for the balance of the season.

He's gonna play both guys once Bell is up to speed.  First off, I can't see why he would give Darrel and Darwin any snaps or touches unless Bell is just done and sucks in practice (not likely).  Then, if I were Reid, I'd take some of CEH's workload to keep him fresh for the season.  If Bell starts outperforming CEH or CEH makes some bad mistakes (i.e. fumbles and costs the team a game), then sure...Bell will get more work and possibly supplant him as starter.

What I don't expect to happen is Bell being inserted as the starter right away.  I mean, why?  CEH is doing everything well and getting more than what is blocked.  His evaded tackles and tackle breaking is better than what Bell has done the last couple years.  RBs get paid to get more than what's blocked, and CEH is doing exactly that.  Why switch just because they had the opportunity to add depth?

People think they signed Bell to be the starter, and that it was a reflection of some dissatisfaction with CEH.  That they wouldn't bother signing Bell if they liked CEH.  Nonsense.  The signing is more of a reflection that they don't want to rely on Darrel/Darwin if CEH goes down.  Having Bell was a luxury that they could easily afford, and made way too much sense to do.  Bell was super cheap and improves their chances of winning a SB.  No reason not to do it if they have the opportunity.

Edited by kp96
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5 minutes ago, kp96 said:

 

We're all guessing.  Week 7 CEH is safe because Bell will have only been on the team for 4 days.  He might be in some sub packages but that's about it, especially with CEH coming off a 160 yard rushing game.  No need to throw Bell in there right away.

After week 8, we will see.  All of us tend to look at the situation through the lens of what we want to happen for our fantasy team.  We should think about what Reid will do.  Reid doesn't give a crap about stats.  He wants another championship.  He will do not only what will help his team win the next game, but also what's best for the balance of the season.

He's gonna play both guys once Bell is up to speed.  First off, I can't see why he would give Darrel and Darwin any snaps or touches unless Bell is just done and sucks in practice (not likely).  Then, if I were Reid, I'd take some of CEH's workload to keep him fresh for the season.  If Bell starts outperforming CEH or CEH makes some bad mistakes (i.e. fumbles and costs the team a game), then sure...Bell will get more work and possibly supplant him as starter.

What I don't expect to happen is Bell being inserted as the starter right away.  I mean, why?  CEH is doing everything well and getting more than what is blocked.  His evaded tackles and tackle breaking is better than what Bell has done the last couple years.  RBs get paid to get more than what's blocked, and CEH is doing exactly that.  Why switch just because they had the opportunity to add depth?

People think they signed Bell to be the starter, and that it was a reflection of some dissatisfaction with CEH.  That they wouldn't bother signing Bell if they liked CEH.  Nonsense.  The signing is more of a reflection that they don't want to rely on Darrel/Darwin if CEH goes down.  Having Bell was a luxury that they could easily afford, and made way too much sense to do.  Bell was super cheap and improves their chances of winning a SB.  No reason not to do it if they have the opportunity.

I share most of what you say.... If Bell can take 75 touches from CEH going forward and not be much of a drop off. As a coach that wants to win real games / not fantasy don't you want CEH going into real plays / not fantasy with 225 carries instead of 300? The answer is yes.... Giving the ball to CEH means less chance of injury and hopefully fresher legs in January. I know there are a lot of opinions in here and everyone is extremely confident in what they project to happen. None of us know, people making bets on this is just silly. 

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Unfortunately, the most likely outcome here is that health will come into play.  Knock on wood, but it's likely someone here is gonna sprain an ankle or something.  Especially this year.  I have a hard time believing that neither CEH or Bell will pick up some sort of ding, which will influence playing time. 

It came into play last year with Shady vs. Damien, it happened this year with Rojo vs. Fournette, etc.  Heck, even Kareem Hunt / Nick Chubb has been impacted.  Probably the smartest play is to try to get both these guys on your team, if you can do so at a reasonable price,  Easier said than done though.  Judging by these boards, you're not going to get Bell cheaply as his owners are predicting massive points for him.  CEH owners aren't going to give him away either.

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If I told you running back X lead the league in yards from scrimmage through 6 weeks and played on the best offense in The NFL, where would you draft him? Anyway, Bell coming in is not ideal but remember KC had zero depth behind CEH. Williams sucks, and Darwin Thompson isn’t scaring anyone either. This was just playing with house money for KC.

Edited by griffin727
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6 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

If I told you running back X lead the league in yards from scrimmage through 6 weeks and played on the best offense in The NFL, where would you draft him? Anyway, Bell coming in is not ideal but remember KC had zero depth behind CEH. Williams sucks, and Darwin Thompson isn’t scaring anyone either. This was just playing with house money for KC.


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9 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

If I told you running back X lead the league in yards from scrimmage through 6 weeks and played on the best offense in The NFL, where would you draft him? Anyway, Bell coming in is not ideal but remember KC had zero depth behind CEH. Williams sucks, and Darwin Thompson isn’t scaring anyone either. This was just playing with house money for KC.

You would need to include the part that he only has one TD and does not see much RZ and goal line work. 

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

It’s reasonable but comes with its own set of issues.    You’re giving Mahomie 2nd and 4/ 3rd and 1 over and again.  With a tired defense on the field and minimal time for your offense to work.   
 

id call that strategy a bust. 

Fair points. The truth might be that in a contest between Buffalo and KC, the Buffalo D really does not have a “winning” strategy - every strategy is a bust. The alternative is to let Mahomes beat you.  Everyone knows how that ends.
 

I know MOP and others disagree, but I do believe that Buffalo had a chance to win that game despite being completely outclassed.  If Buffalo had allowed Mahomes to do Mahomes things maybe it wouldn’t have been as close.  It certainly didn’t look like the Buffalo offense was up for a shootout.
 

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

It’s reasonable but comes with its own set of issues.    You’re giving Mahomie 2nd and 4/ 3rd and 1 over and again.  With a tired defense on the field and minimal time for your offense to work.   
 

id call that strategy a bust. 

Fair points. The truth might be that in a contest between Buffalo and KC, the Buffalo D really does not have a “winning” strategy - every strategy is a bust. The alternative is to let Mahomes beat you.  Everyone knows how that ends.
 

I know MOP and others disagree, but I do believe that Buffalo had a chance to win that game despite being completely outclassed.  If Buffalo had allowed Mahomes to do Mahomes things maybe it wouldn’t have been as close.  It certainly didn’t look like the Buffalo offense was up for a shootout.
 

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24 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

You would need to include the part that he only has one TD and does not see much RZ and goal line work. 

he's like the anti-matt-asiata

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23 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

You would need to include the part that he only has one TD and does not see much RZ and goal line work. 

 

TD's are fluky, so that's not moving the needle much for me. If you want to throw all your eggs in that basket go ahead. Unless I'm wrong CEH still got all the goal to go carries since week 1, it's not like they put someone else back there. The "He doesn't see much RZ work" is completely false. .He is rotated out at the same rate as the rest of the field. He's had multiple TD's called back in recent weeks, so he's obviously getting looks there. 

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1 minute ago, griffin727 said:

 

TD's are fluky, so that's not moving the needle much for me. If you want to throw all your eggs in that basket go ahead. Unless I'm wrong CEH still got all the goal to go carries since week 1, it's not like they put someone else back there. The "He doesn't see much RZ work" is completely false. .He is rotated out at the same rate as the rest of the field. He's had multiple TD's called back in recent weeks, so he's obviously getting looks there. 

"Completely False" ????

 

image.png.07ea8f6293cbc91a1078369476043031.png

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7 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

 

TD's are fluky, so that's not moving the needle much for me. If you want to throw all your eggs in that basket go ahead. Unless I'm wrong CEH still got all the goal to go carries since week 1, it's not like they put someone else back there. The "He doesn't see much RZ work" is completely false. .He is rotated out at the same rate as the rest of the field. He's had multiple TD's called back in recent weeks, so he's obviously getting looks there. 

 

The issue is that it looks like KC's preferred goal line attack is to spread and let Mahomes either find a guy or run it in.  I see that far more than the jumbo package.  Part of that has to be because CEH is small and the other backs just aren't very good down there.  That could change when Bell is there.

I look at it this way...CEH isn't punching it in from the goal line through 6 games but is still pretty good.  He'll have to score from long distance but his TD luck has been horrible.  Hopefully whatever he is losing in yardage to Bell, he will make up for with some TD regression, because it has been ridiculous how unlucky he has been with TDs.  He's had more called back than he has scored.

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11 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

 

TD's are fluky, so that's not moving the needle much for me. If you want to throw all your eggs in that basket go ahead. Unless I'm wrong CEH still got all the goal to go carries since week 1, it's not like they put someone else back there. The "He doesn't see much RZ work" is completely false. .He is rotated out at the same rate as the rest of the field. He's had multiple TD's called back in recent weeks, so he's obviously getting looks there. 

 

TD's are fluky for receivers. RBs TDs can be more consistent as they often get anywhere from 4-8 redzone looks per game depending on the team, provided they are the goal line back.

Edited by harck

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1 minute ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

"Completely False" ????

 

image.png.07ea8f6293cbc91a1078369476043031.png

 

I'm not putting much stock in week 2 where they only had 3 plays. The three most recent weeks he was on the field in the RZ, this is still Mahomes team. Last night they corrected the issue that they have been way too pass happy. In the end, he's going to get RZ looks. Maybe not as much as every RB in the league, but this dude is still a great fantasy asset.

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2 minutes ago, harck said:

 

TD's are fluky for receivers. RBs TDs can be more consistent as they often get anywhere from 4-8 redzone looks per game depending on the team, provided they are the goal line back.

 

True, but Kamara last year had what, 5 total TD's? **** happens. We also still have no direct indication that CEH ISN'T the goal line back. He's gotten every goal line carry this year as far as I know.

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Just now, griffin727 said:

 

True, but Kamara last year had what, 5 total TD's? **** happens. We also still have no direct indication that CEH ISN'T the goal line back. He's gotten every goal line carry this year as far as I know.

 

If I'm Andy Reid, I put Bell in the goal line packages sooner rather than later.  It remains to be seen how much work Bell will get between the 20's, but it just makes too much sense not to try Bell at the goal line. 

He is bigger than CEH and has a lot more experience than CEH in that situation.  CEH has been lackluster at best there, despite getting the opportunities.  You can blame the Oline, but this is certainly one area that I would try Bell if I were the coach. 

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Just now, kp96 said:

 

If I'm Andy Reid, I put Bell in the goal line packages sooner rather than later.  It remains to be seen how much work Bell will get between the 20's, but it just makes too much sense not to try Bell at the goal line. 

He is bigger than CEH and has a lot more experience than CEH in that situation.  CEH has been lackluster at best there, despite getting the opportunities.  You can blame the Oline, but this is certainly one area that I would try Bell if I were the coach. 

 

Perhaps, and that remains to be seen. We don't know what exactly Reid plans to use Bell for. The Chiefs aren't paying Bell much, so there's not really much commitment.

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Anyone else feel like we’re beating a very dead horse here? We’ve heard every conceivable outcome and argument there is. Let’s see what happens over the next few weeks.

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CEH is the 10th ranked RB in PPR as far as points scored. He's second in rushing and third in attempts. I guess his usage and points scored could possible go up with Bell there but I just tend to think his points scored and usage will go down.... "If" he would have scored some TD's he would be a top 5 RB. But the fact (call it bad luck, call it bad goal line back) but the fact he has not scored more then 1 TD is concerning given the new circumstances. If he was ranked 10th before Bell I just think he will continue and slip down those rankings after Bell is fully integrated. He will still be useful but I don't think he will return the ADP that most of us drafted him at. 

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4 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

 

Perhaps, and that remains to be seen. We don't know what exactly Reid plans to use Bell for. The Chiefs aren't paying Bell much, so there's not really much commitment.

 

Yes we don't know, I'm just saying what, to me, seems logical.  It's an area where Bell can contribute right away and is likely better than CEH at.  It would be terrible for CEH fantasy owners, but a positive for the KC Chiefs.

The money thing is overblown.  Usually not a factor at all.  Best player plays.  Coaches only care about winning games.

Edited by kp96

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26 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

 

I'm not putting much stock in week 2 where they only had 3 plays. The three most recent weeks he was on the field in the RZ, this is still Mahomes team. Last night they corrected the issue that they have been way too pass happy. In the end, he's going to get RZ looks. Maybe not as much as every RB in the league, but this dude is still a great fantasy asset.

Best Moving Goalposts GIFs | Gfycat

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5 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

Best Moving Goalposts GIFs | Gfycat


haha I like that one, I’ll have to save it. In the end y’all can be scared of Bell and think CEH is a bust but I’m not as worried. 

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2 hours ago, kp96 said:

CEH is 2nd in the league in rushing.  Any thought that they're just going to send him straight to the bench bc of Bell is ludicrous.

 

 

There's twice as many games <80 yards than there are games >100 yards. Not enough data to have any certainty, but I'm inclined to say yesterday was an outlier.

 

Definition of outlier

1: a person whose residence and place of business are at a distance
//His house was a place of refuge for outliers.
2: something (such as a geological feature) that is situated away from or classed differently from a main or related body
//The island is an outlier on the southeast side of the archipelago.
3a: a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample.
//Values that are outliers give disproportionate weight to larger over 
Edited by PrestigeWW

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