thebadferret

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2020 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Sherlocklock said:

Fair points. The truth might be that in a contest between Buffalo and KC, the Buffalo D really does not have a “winning” strategy - every strategy is a bust. The alternative is to let Mahomes beat you.  Everyone knows how that ends.
 

I know MOP and others disagree, but I do believe that Buffalo had a chance to win that game despite being completely outclassed.  If Buffalo had allowed Mahomes to do Mahomes things maybe it wouldn’t have been as close.  It certainly didn’t look like the Buffalo offense was up for a shootout.
 


yeah-  agreed.   there’s no perfect solution to dealing with Mahomes-  but if there’s something to be gleaned...the raiders and chargers tapes are worth watching.  
 

can’t just drop into full cover and expect 6 guys down low to overpower the chiefs line.    I get why they wanted to try-  but it’s not the first time people have tried that.   

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29 minutes ago, PrestigeWW said:

 

There's twice as many games <80 yards than there are games >100 yards. Not enough data to have any certainty, but I'm inclined to say yesterday was an outlier.

 

Definition of outlier

1: a person whose residence and place of business are at a distance
//His house was a place of refuge for outliers.
2: something (such as a geological feature) that is situated away from or classed differently from a main or related body
//The island is an outlier on the southeast side of the archipelago.
3a: a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample.
//Values that are outliers give disproportionate weight to larger over 

 

He has 5 weeks of 80+ total yards and 1 week of <80 total yards, unless you were only considering rushing yards? 

In that case if a player had 11 games of 79 yards, and 5 games of 101 yards, they'd also have twice as many games at <80 than >100. They'd also end the season with 1,374 rushing yards, which would have been good for 4th in rushing last season (and a few yards short of 3rd) so I'm not sure what the point is there since it's going to be true for almost every RB, RB1's included.

Edited by vercrazy

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1 hour ago, griffin727 said:

 

I'm not putting much stock in week 2 where they only had 3 plays. The three most recent weeks he was on the field in the RZ, this is still Mahomes team. Last night they corrected the issue that they have been way too pass happy. In the end, he's going to get RZ looks. Maybe not as much as every RB in the league, but this dude is still a great fantasy asset.

 

Let's not rewrite history.  The Chiefs ran more because of the cold/rainy weather.

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46 minutes ago, PrestigeWW said:

 

There's twice as many games <80 yards than there are games >100 yards. Not enough data to have any certainty, but I'm inclined to say yesterday was an outlier.

 

Definition of outlier

1: a person whose residence and place of business are at a distance
//His house was a place of refuge for outliers.
2: something (such as a geological feature) that is situated away from or classed differently from a main or related body
//The island is an outlier on the southeast side of the archipelago.
3a: a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample.
//Values that are outliers give disproportionate weight to larger over 

 

Maybe the outliers are the bad games where he has had no TD luck?

If you want to bash him that's fine, but he is 2nd in the league in rushing.  That's the fact.

 

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34 minutes ago, kp96 said:

 

Maybe the outliers are the bad games where he has had no TD luck?

If you want to bash him that's fine, but he is 2nd in the league in rushing.  That's the fact.

 

 

I own him in one money league and grabbed Bell off of waivers in another money league, so I really don't have a "dog in the fight" so to speak. I find it funny to see the crowing after several weeks of middling rushing production. As others said, the Bills seemed content to let them run at will and the conditions were far from ideal for airing it out. I don't doubt CEH's talent, I'm just not ready to anoint him as the no doubt RB1 that I drafted him as after yesterday's game.

 

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23 minutes ago, PrestigeWW said:

 

I own him in one money league and grabbed Bell off of waivers in another money league, so I really don't have a "dog in the fight" so to speak. I find it funny to see the crowing after several weeks of middling rushing production. As others said, the Bills seemed content to let them run at will and the conditions were far from ideal for airing it out. I don't doubt CEH's talent, I'm just not ready to anoint him as the no doubt RB1 that I drafted him as after yesterday's game.

 

 

See, that's where perception and reality are not aligning.  He's 2nd in the league in rushing at a 4.7 ypc clip.  That's absolutely not middling, it is excellent. 

The reason people think it is middling is that his fantasy production isn't great because of the lack of touchdowns.  To me and you...yes, he has been disappointing, especially with all the opportunity.  But to an NFL coach who doesn't give a rats a** who gets in the endzone as long as the offense is humming, he has been everything they could hope for.

I do agree he's not a no doubt RB1, especially not now.  He is not CMC, Saquon, Zeke.  Bell is absolutely a threat to him and his production.  But what I think is BS is the narrative that "he hasn't been good".  If you're saying "he hasn't been good in fantasy", that's a different argument because you need your player to score (especially your first rounder).

But this discussion is about his playing time and how much impact Bell will have.  Reid wants the offense to move, and he will play the guy that gets yardage.  CEH has done that very well and Bell will not be walking into a situation where he just gets carries because he's got a big name.  Reid doesn't care...he wants to win games so Bell better do way better than his 4.2 ypc career average.

The goal line is where I think Bell poses the biggest immediate threat to CEH, but other than that, I fail to see how CEH won't be getting plenty of work.

Edited by kp96
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Dude is almost 5ypc. Bell is not taking his job lol.  And people only upset because he doesn’t have more TD’s, but he’s had 2 or 3 TD’s called back because of penalties. He’s just been extremely unlucky. 

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Fantasy community:  The chiefs are down in CEH!  They are looking for a new RB1!  They dinged Clyde for no rushing TDs!  They must think Bell is a lead back!  They have already determined that Bell will get all the passing work and goal line carries!  CEH is barely startable and should have been a 10th round pick!

 

Chiefs’ front office:  we have a good shot to repeat this year.  we can always use RB depth to limit wear and tear and for injury insurance.  This guy is a veteran, is probably an upgrade over Willams, and is basically free.  Let’s sign him and we’ll figure it out.

 

🙃

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1 hour ago, Cleanface said:

How we feeling this weekend in a potential snow game in DEN?? 
 

 

CEH type of game last game before Bell gets more integrated in the offense so possibly another 150+ yard game?!

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2 minutes ago, dave.zavala89 said:

 

CEH type of game last game before Bell gets more integrated in the offense so possibly another 150+ yard game?!

Haha.  Easy start!  
I’m just wondering if the 20 degree and possible snow might affect our outlook.  Could it mean potentially MORE CEH bc of the poor weather?  Not as much passing?  Or possibly affect it negatively??  Bc of overall sloppiness?

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2 minutes ago, Cleanface said:

Haha.  Easy start!  
I’m just wondering if the 20 degree and possible snow might affect our outlook.  Could it mean potentially MORE CEH bc of the poor weather?  Not as much passing?  Or possibly affect it negatively??  Bc of overall sloppiness?


snow tends to benefit the offense and benefit RBs in particular from what I seem to remember.

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On 10/20/2020 at 2:24 PM, kp96 said:

 

See, that's where perception and reality are not aligning.  He's 2nd in the league in rushing at a 4.7 ypc clip.  That's absolutely not middling, it is excellent. 

The reason people think it is middling is that his fantasy production isn't great because of the lack of touchdowns.  To me and you...yes, he has been disappointing, especially with all the opportunity.  But to an NFL coach who doesn't give a rats a** who gets in the endzone as long as the offense is humming, he has been everything they could hope for.

I do agree he's not a no doubt RB1, especially not now.  He is not CMC, Saquon, Zeke.  Bell is absolutely a threat to him and his production.  But what I think is BS is the narrative that "he hasn't been good".  If you're saying "he hasn't been good in fantasy", that's a different argument because you need your player to score (especially your first rounder).

But this discussion is about his playing time and how much impact Bell will have.  Reid wants the offense to move, and he will play the guy that gets yardage.  CEH has done that very well and Bell will not be walking into a situation where he just gets carries because he's got a big name.  Reid doesn't care...he wants to win games so Bell better do way better than his 4.2 ypc career average.

The goal line is where I think Bell poses the biggest immediate threat to CEH, but other than that, I fail to see how CEH won't be getting plenty of work.


Again, not hating but it was 4.2 yards a carry before the Buffalo game- not bad but not exactly AP’s rookie season either.

CEH’s total stats weren’t bad by any stretch, but hardly worthy of his ADP. My point - which I believe was in response to someone else - was talking about the fact that he’s second in the league in rushing. Given the amount of games played it’s nothing to hang your hat on and hardly a guarantee on future usage.
 

 

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3 minutes ago, PrestigeWW said:


Again, not hating but it was 4.2 yards a carry before the Buffalo game- not bad but not exactly AP’s rookie season either.

CEH’s total stats weren’t bad by any stretch, but hardly worthy of his ADP. My point - which I believe was in response to someone else - was talking about the fact that he’s second in the league in rushing. Given the amount of games played it’s nothing to hang your hat on and hardly a guarantee on future usage.
 

 


I know you say you’re not hating but this reads like some grade A haterade to me brotha 

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41 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


I know you say you’re not hating but this reads like some grade A haterade to me brotha 


¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Didnt think dude was as bad as some made him out to be a few weeks ago, not ready to crown him after a blowup game enhanced by weather conditions and defensive scheme clearly played a role either.

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56 minutes ago, PrestigeWW said:


Again, not hating but it was 4.2 yards a carry before the Buffalo game- not bad but not exactly AP’s rookie season either.

CEH’s total stats weren’t bad by any stretch, but hardly worthy of his ADP. My point - which I believe was in response to someone else - was talking about the fact that he’s second in the league in rushing. Given the amount of games played it’s nothing to hang your hat on and hardly a guarantee on future usage.
 

 


Bell hasn’t had more than 4 YPC since 2016. You should join Chad Parsons and Jordan McNamara in the “I’m not hating on CEH...let me just tell you the reasons why he’s not good and why you’re a moron to think he is” club

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16 minutes ago, joshua18 said:


Bell hasn’t had more than 4 YPC since 2016. You should join Chad Parsons and Jordan McNamara in the “I’m not hating on CEH...let me just tell you the reasons why he’s not good and why you’re a moron to think he is” club


Your tone is completely unnecessary & counterproductive. Feel free to double check, but I’m pretty sure Bell was at 4 YPC on the dot in 2017. 
 
In any case, I think CEH is a very solid player, but between being a “bell-cow” for just a single season at LSU & clearly not being trusted to pass block, Bell will most certainly have a role going forward for this season. I don’t think CEH’s ADP will be justified by his production when it’s all said and done. Naturally if you’re talking dynasty that’s a different kettle of fish entirely.

Bury your head in the sand if you like, but CEH becoming Brian Westbrook 2.0 is a year or two away IMO. 

Edited by PrestigeWW

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On 10/21/2020 at 6:07 AM, BigBlueMachine said:

Fantasy community:  The chiefs are down in CEH!  They are looking for a new RB1!  They dinged Clyde for no rushing TDs!  They must think Bell is a lead back!  They have already determined that Bell will get all the passing work and goal line carries!  CEH is barely startable and should have been a 10th round pick!

 

Chiefs’ front office:  we have a good shot to repeat this year.  we can always use RB depth to limit wear and tear and for injury insurance.  This guy is a veteran, is probably an upgrade over Willams, and is basically free.  Let’s sign him and we’ll figure it out.

 

🙃

You forgot a line:

 

Leveon Bell: I already got paid by the Jets. Why not receive a little extra cash for the upcoming offseason, show I have a little something left in the tank for the next team, and collect a championship without having to do it all on my own? I will gladly take a back up role. Being on a losing team REALLY SUCKED. Now I get to play with my bestie and sip champagne after the Superbowl. On that stage, I will up my value and secure my final contract. 

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2 hours ago, Fantasy Gooroo said:

You forgot a line:

 

Leveon Bell: I already got paid by the Jets. Why not receive a little extra cash for the upcoming offseason, show I have a little something left in the tank for the next team, and collect a championship without having to do it all on my own? I will gladly take a back up role. Being on a losing team REALLY SUCKED. Now I get to play with my bestie and sip champagne after the Superbowl. On that stage, I will up my value and secure my final contract. 

 

basically bell will maximize on his 3rd down and goal line work while CEH feast all the 1st and 2nd down work

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6 hours ago, dave.zavala89 said:

 

basically bell will maximize on his 3rd down and goal line work while CEH feast all the 1st and 2nd down work


I expect an even split. Bell has not been a good short-yardage runner; he was never a big TD guy even in PIT.

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On 10/20/2020 at 1:18 PM, wekko368 said:

 

Let's not rewrite history.  The Chiefs ran more because of the cold/rainy weather.

 

They ran more because the Bills couldn't stop it.

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8 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

 

They ran more because the Bills dropped 7/8 defenders in coverage to force the Chiefs to be patient, and it worked - K.C. ran the ball 45 times, which is unprecedented for KoolAid/'Homie. 

 

fixed for explanation.

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:


I expect an even split. Bell has not been a good short-yardage runner; he was never a big TD guy even in PIT.

38 career rushing TDs

Average length 4.3 yards 

3 or fewer yards 24
4-9 yards 12
10-19 yards 6
20-29 yards 2
30 or more yards 2
 

He rarely scores outside of redzone 

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It’s going to be cold and snow today? If bell plays, old man gonna pull a hammy before half lmao. Dude this weather could be another blessing. If it’s nasty, you ain’t tackling Ceh. Could be another plus 100 rushing day. 

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