lolcopter

Jerry Jeudy 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

47 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Why is that?  Lock looked pretty darn good in limited time as a rook last season.  The landing spot isn’t ideal for fantasy purposes - mainly due to the surfeit of offensive weapons - but he might wend his way into WR3 status before all is said and done in his first pro season.

Lack of volume - as others have mentioned, I expect the Broncos to try and protect Lock by pounding the rock with their 3 RBs. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lock throws the best ball of any rookies lately, including Garropollo. Save Mahomes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

Lock throws the best ball of any rookies lately, including Garropollo. Save Mahomes. 


You have a broad definition of rookie. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, smeeze said:

Lack of volume - as others have mentioned, I expect the Broncos to try and protect Lock by pounding the rock with their 3 RBs. 

You don’t go out and spend your first two picks on wideouts - and add his former TE, who also excels as a pass-catcher - if you don’t want your QB throwing the ball.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BMcP said:

You don’t go out and spend your first two picks on wideouts - and add his former TE, who also excels as a pass-catcher - if you don’t want your QB throwing the ball.


Denver also signed MG3 and brought on more run blocking beef.    I don’t anticipate this team becoming the KC Chiefs- throwing it all over the place and scoring 40 weekly.  Balance in the run and pass games will be key.  As such...It will likely be a spotty start for Jeudy.  6-7 targets a week at first.  It is the exception to see a rookie wr come in and dominate volume from the drop.
 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Denver also signed MG3 and brought on more run blocking beef.    I don’t anticipate this team becoming the KC Chiefs- throwing it all over the place and scoring 40 weekly.  Balance in the run and pass games will be key.  As such...It will likely be a spotty start for Jeudy.  6-7 targets a week at first.  It is the exception to see a rookie wr come in and dominate volume from the drop.
 

 

MG3 does his best work as a receiver out of the backfield.  I’m not sure adding all of two linemen - one in the sixth who doesn’t project as a starter in 2020 - constitutes adding “run-blocking beef.”  Elway has been quite outspoken about the need to keep up in the arms race with KC’s devastating aerial attack.

Nothing this team is doing suggests a run-centric approach - or even a “balanced” run/pass attack.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, BMcP said:

MG3 does his best work as a receiver out of the backfield.  I’m not sure adding all of two linemen - one in the sixth who doesn’t project as a starter in 2020 - constitutes adding “run-blocking beef.”  Elway has been quite outspoken about the need to keep up in the arms race with KC’s devastating aerial attack.

Nothing this team is doing suggests a run-centric approach - or even a “balanced” run/pass attack.


Adding speed and explosive potential-  yes

Asking Lock to throw it 40 times a game all over the yard...behind a line still very much a work in progress— Nope

youre going to be disappointed when lock continues to be efficient through the air and Denver still one of the better running teams.  

 

Edited by Impreza178

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Adding speed and explosive potential-  yes

Asking Lock to throw it 40 times a game all over the yard...behind a line still very much a work in progress— Nope

youre going to be disappointed when lock continues to be efficient through the air and one of the better running teams.  

 

“We knew offensively we had to step it up," Elway told Tirico. "We had to get more explosive on the offensive side, so it was our game plan, and our goal was to go in this year and give Drew Lock some help and get some people around him to get more explosive. We've been putting a lot of pressure on our defense since we won the Super Bowl back in 2015. So with Drew and the [way] that he ended last year, with his five starts, to be able to put some explosiveness around him, we feel like we were able to do that."

That should better prepare the Broncos for six combined matchups next year against the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers.

"The days of 3 yards and a cloud of dust are behind us," Elway told Tirico. "But that's why you have to be explosive on the offensive side and be able to put some points on the board, especially with Patrick Mahomes in our division, as well as the Raiders are coming on — and the Chargers have drafted Herbert too. We're going to have a heck of a battle in the AFC West."

Doesn’t sound like a guy with a “ground and pound” philosophy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BMcP said:

“We knew offensively we had to step it up," Elway told Tirico. "We had to get more explosive on the offensive side, so it was our game plan, and our goal was to go in this year and give Drew Lock some help and get some people around him to get more explosive. We've been putting a lot of pressure on our defense since we won the Super Bowl back in 2015. So with Drew and the [way] that he ended last year, with his five starts, to be able to put some explosiveness around him, we feel like we were able to do that."

That should better prepare the Broncos for six combined matchups next year against the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers.

"The days of 3 yards and a cloud of dust are behind us," Elway told Tirico. "But that's why you have to be explosive on the offensive side and be able to put some points on the board, especially with Patrick Mahomes in our division, as well as the Raiders are coming on — and the Chargers have drafted Herbert too. We're going to have a heck of a battle in the AFC West."

Doesn’t sound like a guy with a “ground and pound” philosophy.


You’re trying to win an argument at the expense of the truth.   One more time,  and then I’ll let you carry on thinking Lock can do what Mahomes does.  
 

“explosive” does not mean high volume.   It means opportunistic.  Lock is not ready to carry the offense and make multiple WRs plus a promising young TE into high volume fantasy studs.   25-30 passes a game TOPS.   Run the ball well and keep the offense on the field.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


You’re trying to win an argument at the expense of the truth.   One more time,  and then I’ll let you carry on thinking Lock can do what Mahomes does.  
 

“explosive” does not mean high volume.   It means opportunistic.  Lock is not ready to carry the offense and make multiple WRs plus a promising young TE into high volume fantasy studs.   25-30 passes a game TOPS.   Run the ball well and keep the offense on the field.  

Huh?  I’m not trying to “win” anything - I’ve just been pointing out facts and their logical implications.  If you prefer to believe Denver is going to continue running a conservative, ball-control offense, feel free - to each his own.  But I think the overall picture here is crystal-clear.

(BTW: Lock attempted more than 25-30 passes in nearly half his starts as a rookie - with no playmakers to work with outside of Sutton.)

Edited by BMcP
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BMcP said:

You don’t go out and spend your first two picks on wideouts - and add his former TE, who also excels as a pass-catcher - if you don’t want your QB throwing the ball.

The biggest personnel acquisitions of the off season that can provide immediate impact were Jurrell Casey and MGIII.  Their best player on offense might be Dalton Risner.

I get what Elway is wanting to project to the media, but by that same token you can kinda see where the strengths of this team are.  Jerry Jeudy was a great player in college but I suspect trying to match KC's style of play given who is on the roster right now may be more of a long term play.

Edited by JE7HorseGod

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

The biggest personnel acquisitions of the off season that can provide immediate impact were Jurrell Casey and MGIII.  Their best player on offense might be Dalton Riser.

I get what Elway is wanting to project to the media, but by that same token you can kinda see where the strengths of this team are.  Jerry Jeudy was a great player in college but I suspect trying to match KC's style of play given who is on the roster right now may be more of a long term play.

Risner is special and you should be delighted to have him.

I’m not trying to focus too closely on what Elway is saying to the media - but what he is saying matches what he just did in the draft.  He even stated point-blank that the strategy all along was to go receiver-receiver with their only two first- and second-round picks.  I find it more instructive to focus on the actual choices an organization makes rather than coach- or GM-speak.  In this case, their draft decisions speak volumes.

(Disclaimer: I am by no means projecting Drew Lock to become some sort of Mahomesian stud.  I just expect him to be passing the ball much more frequently.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BMcP said:

Risner is special and you should be delighted to have him.

I’m not trying to focus too closely on what Elway is saying to the media - but what he is saying matches what he just did in the draft.  He even stated point-blank that the strategy all along was to go receiver-receiver with their only two first- and second-round picks.  I find it more instructive to focus on the actual choices an organization makes rather than coach- or GM-speak.  In this case, their draft decisions speak volumes.

(Disclaimer: I am by no means projecting Drew Lock to become some sort of Mahomesian stud.  I just expect him to be passing the ball much more frequently.)

I get it.

All I'm saying is, with Miller, Chubb, and Casey in the fold, some other key pieces on defense (Bouye and Callahan at corner) two talented running backs and an overall good run blocking offensive line...I feel like if this team is going to win games, it makes sense to see it play out a certain way regardless of the draftees.

Now if the defense turns out to bust, or for instance in the KC games where the Chiefs are bound to score regardless, sure you have to be able to try to keep up.

Drew made a believer out of me last year, so I think he might be able to elevate his game to the next level with Sutton, Fant and the new guys.  But I am not quite convinced that anyone outside of Sutton is going to be a guy you want to start regularly in fantasy in this passing game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I get it.

All I'm saying is, with Miller, Chubb, and Casey in the fold, some other key pieces on defense (Bouye and Callahan at corner) two talented running backs and an overall good run blocking offensive line...I feel like if this team is going to win games, it makes sense to see it play out a certain way regardless of the draftees.

Now if the defense turns out to bust, or for instance in the KC games where the Chiefs are bound to score regardless, sure you have to be able to try to keep up.

Drew made a believer out of me last year, so I think he might be able to elevate his game to the next level with Sutton, Fant and the new guys.  But I am not quite convinced that anyone outside of Sutton is going to be a guy you want to start regularly in fantasy in this passing game.

The defensive adds are an enormous boon to what was already a strong unit - under Fangio’s tutelage, with everyone at full health, I fully expect Denver’s D to rejoin the ranks of the elite.

I stated my position on Jeudy a bit earlier up-thread: a potential WR3 candidate in year one.  There are simply too many mouths to feed now to comfortably rely on anyone outside of Sutton providing every-week value.  But I would be downright shocked if they aren’t attempting at least 35-40 passes a game this season in light of all recent developments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

30 pass attempts per game avg would be 480 passes on the season

 

Sutton had 124 last year, let's bump it up 16 more to 140 this season

 

Fant had 66 last season let's bump his up 14 to 80 this season.

 

MGIII is a good receiving back, let's give him 60 this season.

 

Phillip Lindsay, kj hamler, and other broncos pass catchers let's group them all together for 100 targets this season.

 

140+100+80+60=380 that leaves 100 potential targets for Jeudy?

 

I think around 800 yards and 8 TDs is a good place to start the discussion for Jeudys range of outcomes this season. 

 

Solid fantasy WR2 and a damn good WR3 if you were to get so lucky.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No one has any reservations about Drew Lock?    It’s one thing to come in with a limited playbook and look competent behind an underrated D and good running game-  and another to project him to throw it 40 times a game and make 3 pass catchers into fantasy starters.    
 

we’ll see guys.   Hope you’re right honestly 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

30 pass attempts per game avg would be 480 passes on the season

 

Sutton had 124 last year, let's bump it up 16 more to 140 this season

 

Fant had 66 last season let's bump his up 14 to 80 this season.

 

MGIII is a good receiving back, let's give him 60 this season.

 

Phillip Lindsay, kj hamler, and other broncos pass catchers let's group them all together for 100 targets this season.

 

140+100+80+60=380 that leaves 100 potential targets for Jeudy?

 

I think around 800 yards and 8 TDs is a good place to start the discussion for Jeudys range of outcomes this season. 

 

Solid fantasy WR2 and a damn good WR3 if you were to get so lucky.

800/8 seems like more of a ceiling than a median projection.  Not saying it’s impossible, but your breakdown assigns only 100 targets to a whole host of competent-to-good receivers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, BMcP said:

800/8 seems like more of a ceiling than a median projection.  Not saying it’s impossible, but your breakdown assigns only 100 targets to a whole host of competent-to-good receivers.

I thought this was bit low too 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

No one has any reservations about Drew Lock?    It’s one thing to come in with a limited playbook and look competent behind an underrated D and good running game-  and another to project him to throw it 40 times a game and make 3 pass catchers into fantasy starters.    
 

we’ll see guys.   Hope you’re right honestly 

I think there's no chance he throws it 40 times a game, that would be 640 passing attempts in a season, or 26 more than anyone else last year.

35 times a game would be 560, which would be the 8th most in the league last year, I'd also consider that extremely unlikely.

Near 30 seems more probable.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, BMcP said:

800/8 seems like more of a ceiling than a median projection.

Not to mention that very few receivers get a TD every 100 yd. If you assume 800 yd, then 800/5 is more reasonable (league average is around 160 yd per TD).

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I think there's no chance he throws it 40 times a game, that would be 640 passing attempts in a season, or 26 more than anyone else last year.

35 times a game would be 560, which would be the 8th most in the league last year, I'd also consider that extremely unlikely.

Near 30 seems more probable.


Exactly.  they’ll be near the middle of the league in passing attempts.

stands to reason they’ll be near the middle in rushing attempts too.  
Balanced.  
 

ive got Jeudy at 700/5 fwiw.   This could go up or down depending on his speed in picking up the offense...as well as how NFL defenses handle coverage.   Will they continue to double and triple Sutton?  Or does Jeudys name and draft spot carry enough clout to keep coverage more even....   
 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I think there's no chance he throws it 40 times a game, that would be 640 passing attempts in a season, or 26 more than anyone else last year.

I agree that it's really high, but I think you were looking at individual stats, not team stats. The Falcons aired the ball 684 times (Schaub threw 67 of those).

Still, for Denver to go from 500 to 640 seems unlikely.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

I agree that it's really high, but I think you were looking at individual stats, not team stats. The Falcons aired the ball 684 times (Schaub threw 67 of those).

Still, for Denver to go from 500 to 640 seems unlikely.

Yeah, obviously wouldn't want defensive results as poor as the Falcons in the first half of the season to necessitate that.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I think there's no chance he throws it 40 times a game, that would be 640 passing attempts in a season, or 26 more than anyone else last year.

35 times a game would be 560, which would be the 8th most in the league last year, I'd also consider that extremely unlikely.

Near 30 seems more probable.

He averaged over 31 PA/G last season - I don’t consider it a stretch to imagine that number rises to about 35 or so next season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...