LarryDavid

Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

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22 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I doubt the Colts will run more with Rivers vs Brissett. Let’s just say they run the exact same amount as last year. Give like 3-4 carries to Hines per game and that leaves 25 touches for Taylor and Mack. Now let’s say Taylor takes over the backfield. However, Mack is obviously not going to go away. Even if you think he is just “slightly above average” it’s still enough to get work in the modern RB landscape. So that gives Taylor like 15 carries and Mack 10. Since Taylor is so much better apparently let’s give him an entire half a yard more per carry than Mack had last year. However, it’s hard to expect him to get ALL the GL work. Still, let’s give him a rushing TD every other game. That gives us:

240/1,176/8

In terms of receptions, I doubt there’s much. I don’t see him doing better than someone like Henry has done. So let’s go with 15/150/1.

So IF the Colts run as much with Rivers as with Brissett, IF Taylor averages 5 YPC, and IF Taylor takes the starting role from Mack you are looking at RB15 in half PPR based on last year. That’s realistically the BEST case scenario unless Mack gets injured. Yet he’s already going around RB20.


good breakdown-   Id say somewhere between rb14 and rb24 is a realistic expectation, so rb20 is a reasonable cost.  JT isn’t some under the radar steal here...but if mack misses time or Taylor straight dominates post bye....league winner.     
 

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I doubt the Colts will run more with Rivers vs Brissett. Let’s just say they run the exact same amount as last year. Give like 3-4 carries to Hines per game and that leaves 25 touches for Taylor and Mack. Now let’s say Taylor takes over the backfield. However, Mack is obviously not going to go away. Even if you think he is just “slightly above average” it’s still enough to get work in the modern RB landscape. So that gives Taylor like 15 carries and Mack 10. Since Taylor is so much better apparently let’s give him an entire half a yard more per carry than Mack had last year. However, it’s hard to expect him to get ALL the GL work. Still, let’s give him a rushing TD every other game. That gives us:

240/1,176/8

In terms of receptions, I doubt there’s much. I don’t see him doing better than someone like Henry has done. So let’s go with 15/150/1.

So IF the Colts run as much with Rivers as with Brissett, IF Taylor averages 5 YPC, and IF Taylor takes the starting role from Mack you are looking at RB15 in half PPR based on last year. That’s realistically the BEST case scenario unless Mack gets injured. Yet he’s already going around RB20.

 

I guess the difference is that I see Mack as a lock to get hurt based on his first few years in the league all ending in injury without exception. I see RB16-24 or so with league winning upside as mentioned above. Around where he is priced

 

If we are talking rookie RBs in redraft: I think CEH's ADP is more inflated than Taylor's (despite being a Chiefs fan and having CEH on my dynasty team). Would rather have Taylor in the mid 4th than CEH in the early 2nd

Edited by mocha4313
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Without an injury he is useless in redraft in 2020. Mack is good and hines will get the third down work. I see him as a Jamaal Williams type in 2020, however if injury does happen this guy could be a league winner. I would rather have gurley (unquestioned workhorse in a top 5 offense who will get passing work), Bell (will catch 70 passes and is getting the rock with that contract and upgraded O-line and terrible division), Fournette. Too rich for the 4/5 round that has safer WR studs. 

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Without an injury he is useless in redraft in 2020. Mack is good and hines will get the third down work. I see him as a Jamaal Williams type in 2020, however if injury does happen this guy could be a league winner. I would rather have gurley (unquestioned workhorse in a top 5 offense who will get passing work), Bell (will catch 70 passes and is getting the rock with that contract and upgraded O-line and terrible division), Fournette. Too rich for the 4/5 round that has safer WR studs. 

Lol Jamaal Williams

Taylor has more talent in his pinky finger than Jamaal Williams in his whole body.

They aren't even remotely comparable. I can understand taking those RBs over him though

Edited by mocha4313
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1 minute ago, mocha4313 said:

Lol Jamaal Williams

Taylor has more talent in his pinky finger than Jamaal Williams in his whole body.

They aren't even remotely comparable. I can understand taking those RBs over him though

I meant as more touches are concerned. However, Jamaal Williams is talented and yes Taylor is more talented. However in the NFL it is ALL about touches and without injury you are not getting enough VOLUME with TAYLOR, now in 2021 yeah I am all about it. 4th round UM NO THANK YOU. 

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2 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Miles Sanders was a 5th-6th round pick last year. 2013 Gio Bernard was a 6th round pick and finished about RB15 with a late year tear. 2013 Le’Veon Bell was an 11th round pick and won people their leagues. 2013 Eddie Lacy was a 5th round pick and RB3 overall over the second half of the season. Jeremy Hill was a 13th round pick in 2014 and finished RB9 overall.

 

If anything being selected later makes a breakout player even more of a “league winner” because of the value

 

Its a stretch to call some of these guys league winners. Sanders no, Bernard no, Bell maybe, Lacy yes and Hill yes. Some of the ADPs dont seem right either. 2013 was a long time ago but Im pretty sure Bell was the projected workhorse from day 1 and I pretty sure he was going a lot earlier than 11th round.

 

In any case there's a big difference between drafting a rookie RB in the 5th or 6th compared to 3rd and 4th where Taylor is/will be going.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Backs paid more are used more (unless they outright stink). This isn”t “crazy logic.” It’s undenable fact.

Just like backs picked in the 1st are more utlized than backs picked in the 5th.

More investment from a team=more commitment. This has been known in dynasty and fantasy circles since the concept of fantasy began. It’s why bad players like DJ and Bell are going to get usage (the amount the team has invested in them contract wise and in DJ’s case what they traded for him) 

 

Ingram has wear and tear yet Mack is the one who gets hurt every year without exception?

 

JT is better than Mack. Dobbins and Ingram at this point are not too far apart. If Ingram looks washed to start the year that obviously changes, but he was just the RB8 in PPR and has third-down pedigree (unlike Mack).

Oh and most importantly Ingram has the investment from his team

 

You don’t have to be Barkley and Zeke to be a fantasy difference maker. Thought I explained that pretty clearly.

Miles Sanders was a 5th-6th round pick last year. 2013 Gio Bernard was a 6th round pick and finished about RB15 with a late year tear. 2013 Le’Veon Bell was an 11th round pick and won people their leagues. 2013 Eddie Lacy was a 5th round pick and RB3 overall over the second half of the season. Jeremy Hill was a 13th round pick in 2014 and finished RB9 overall.

 

If anything being selected later makes a breakout player even more of a “league winner” because of the value

Any sources to back this up? You seem to cherry pick quite a bit. Mack was a good back when healthy of course and you are advocating for an older back with alot more miles.

 

How do you know JT is better than mack outside of college? Dont RBs bust alot in the NFL?  And hines is the 3rd down back in Indy it seems.

 

Seems like your whole argument is speculation

Edited by bhawks489

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21 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

I guess the difference is that I see Mack as a lock to get hurt based on his first few years in the league all ending in injury without exception. I see RB16-24 or so with league winning upside as mentioned above. Around where he is priced

 

If we are talking rookie RBs in redraft: I think CEH's ADP is more inflated than Taylor's (despite being a Chiefs fan and having CEH on my dynasty team). Would rather have Taylor in the mid 4th than CEH in the early 2nd

Predicting injury eh? Look at ingrams game logs

 

Ingram gets hurt basically every year too. Bad example.

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20 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


good breakdown-   Id say somewhere between rb14 and rb24 is a realistic expectation, so rb20 is a reasonable cost.  JT isn’t some under the radar steal here...but if mack misses time or Taylor straight dominates post bye....league winner.     
 

The problem is that’s a best case scenario. You’re drafting him not too far away from the best case scenario which is why I don’t like his ADP.

RBs that don’t catch passes need a lot of rushing volume and that isn’t going to happen with Mack around. 

21 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

I guess the difference is that I see Mack as a lock to get hurt based on his first few years in the league all ending in injury without exception. I see RB16-24 or so with league winning upside as mentioned above. Around where he is priced

 

If we are talking rookie RBs in redraft: I think CEH's ADP is more inflated than Taylor's (despite being a Chiefs fan and having CEH on my dynasty team). Would rather have Taylor in the mid 4th than CEH in the early 2nd

It’s something to build your entire argument around a guy that’s played 80% of the games over the last two seasons getting hurt. The last time I saw so much speculation for a 4th round pick was for Royce Freeman and Montgomery. 

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Just now, bhawks489 said:

Predicting injury eh? Look at ingrams game logs

 

Ingram gets hurt basically every year too. Bad example.

The funniest thing is Mack isn’t even injury prone. He had a lingering hamstring issue in the early part of the 2018 season and a hand fracture last season that only had him miss 2 games.

Yeah that’s it. Two completely unrelated injuries. You’d think the guy is Gronk or something reading this thread...

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The funniest thing is Mack isn’t even injury prone. He had a lingering hamstring issue in the early part of the 2018 season and a hand fracture last season that only had him miss 2 games.

Yeah that’s it. Two completely unrelated injuries. You’d think the guy is Gronk or something reading this thread...

JT is being talked up like some barkley or zeke in here. Completely different players and situatons but more power to em if they wanna think that.

 

And this is coming from someone who picked JT 2nd overall in dynasty. I just think hes better off year 2 than 1.

Edited by bhawks489
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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

JT is being talked up like some barkley or zeke in here. Completely different players and situatons but more power to em if they wanna think that.

 

And this is coming from someone who picked JT 2nd overall in dynasty. I just think hes better off year 2 than 1.

Once Mack leaves there’s no doubt he will be very good. It’s just hard to see a 2 down back without a hold on the first 2 downs being a reliable every week play. 

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Its a stretch to call some of these guys league winners. Sanders no, Bernard no, Bell maybe, Lacy yes and Hill yes. Some of the ADPs dont seem right either. 2013 was a long time ago but Im pretty sure Bell was the projected workhorse from day 1 and I pretty sure he was going a lot earlier than 11th round.

 

In any case there's a big difference between drafting a rookie RB in the 5th or 6th compared to 3rd and 4th where Taylor is/will be going.

Got my ADPs from ESPN. He was around the 120s range overall after his foot sprain Bell didn't play a game until week 4 due to that foot sprain with the Steelers running a committee of Jonathan Dwyer, Felix Jones and LaRod Stephens-Howling to start the year.

Le'Veon Bell was the RB5 from week 8 to week 16. I call that a league winner. Sanders and Bernard might not be league winners but they finished as high RB2s despite being drafted as risky FLEX plays. I call that the type of value that wins leagues. I remember because 2013 was my first year in fantasy and despite taking busts CJ Spiller and Doug Martin with my first two picks and Julio with my 3rd (who went out for the season after week 3) I won my league thanks to Bell, Lacy, Zac Stacy and Bernard.

I will say that if Taylor's ADP is the 3rd that's too high for me. I said I don't have an issue with mid 4th or after.

56 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I meant as more touches are concerned. However, Jamaal Williams is talented and yes Taylor is more talented. However in the NFL it is ALL about touches and without injury you are not getting enough VOLUME with TAYLOR, now in 2021 yeah I am all about it. 4th round UM NO THANK YOU. 

Aaron Jones is a better player than Mack, and Taylor is a way better player and Williams. Every move the Colts did in the offseason screams win now. Signing Rivers, trading the 13th pick for Buckner, addressing a need at WR in Pittman (a polished player rather than a raw upside play like Mims)--instead of using it to pick Jordan Love/Jalen Hurts/etc.

A win now team does not give more touches to the worse player. Now as I said before if you think JT is not clearly better than Mack then yes--you should have no interest in him in redraft and probably be out on him in dynasty as well considering his price. If you think he is clearly better then 4th round redraft seems about right because the Colts will not for a whole season give more carries to a worse back.

47 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Any sources to back this up? You seem to cherry pick quite a bit. Mack was a good back when healthy of course and you are advocating for an older back with alot more miles.

 

How do you know JT is better than mack outside of college? Dont RBs bust alot in the NFL?  And hines is the 3rd down back in Indy it seems.

 

Seems like your whole argument is speculation

Sources? Literally look at this thread when DJ and Bell were brought up and how people cite how because of Bell's contract and what the Texans traded for DJ (and his contract)--both will get guaranteed volume (which I tend to agree with). 

Draft capital is a huge puzzle piece in rookie drafts. Since you play dynasty I assume you know that. A major part of evaluating players' situations is how committed the team is to them--whether that means the contract they are on or the level of pick spent on them

 

If you don't think JT is better than Mack then yes--definitely don't take him in redraft and probably not in dynasty either considering talents like Mack are rarely long term assets.

I think JT is clearly better than Mack--from the tape, from the production profile, from his athletic testing, from seeing him run over teams who stacked boxes against him when everyone in the building and their grandmas knew he was getting the ball. And if you do there is nothing wrong with a 4th round ADP. Busting is always a risk. If you believe JT is a bust then again--don't take him.

39 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It’s something to build your entire argument around a guy that’s played 80% of the games over the last two seasons getting hurt. The last time I saw so much speculation for a 4th round pick was for Royce Freeman and Montgomery. 

 

2019: 2 missed games

2018: 4 missed games

2017: 2 missed games

Yet I'm the bold one for predicting he will miss games at some point in the season

Royce Freeman had the backfield in theory. He just got outperformed by a UDFA in Lindsay. If you think Taylor is Royce Freeman as a talent then you shouldn't be taking him anywhere--redraft, dynasty, in 2021--literally anywhere.

Montgomery is an awful example considering he actually won the backfield with Cohen being relegated to a pass catching/slot guy and Mike Davis being released not far into the season. Montgomery just wasn't very good and the Bears offense as a whole was even worse. Yet for all that he still finished RB24 because he was the most talented runner on the team. If you think the Colts' line/offense/coaching/QB is the same as the Bears', then again--don't take Taylor. If you believe Taylor as a talent is equal to Molasses..I mean Montgomery; then again, don't take him.

39 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Predicting injury eh? Look at ingrams game logs

 

Ingram gets hurt basically every year too. Bad example.

Mark Ingram

2017: 0 missed games

2018: 0 missed games (from injury--suspended first four games)

2019: 0 missed games (rested week 17 since the Ravens had a bye and the 1 seed clinched)

Edited by mocha4313
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Got my ADPs from ESPN. He was around the 120s range overall after his foot sprain Bell didn't play a game until week 4 due to that foot sprain with the Steelers running a committee of Jonathan Dwyer, Felix Jones and LaRod Stephens-Howling to start the year.

Le'Veon Bell was the RB5 from week 8 to week 16. I call that a league winner. Sanders and Bernard might not be league winners but they finished as high RB2s despite being drafted as risky FLEX plays. I call that the type of value that wins leagues. I remember because 2013 was my first year in fantasy and despite taking busts CJ Spiller and Doug Martin with my first two picks and Julio with my 3rd (who went out for the season after week 3) I won my league thanks to Bell, Lacy, Zac Stacy and Bernard.

I will say that if Taylor's ADP is the 3rd that's too high for me. I said I don't have an issue with mid 4th or after.

Aaron Jones is a better player than Mack, and Taylor is a way better player and Williams. Every move the Colts did in the offseason screams win now. Signing Rivers, trading the 13th pick for Buckner, addressing a need at WR in Pittman (a polished player rather than a raw upside play like Mims)--instead of using it to pick Jordan Love/Jalen Hurts/etc.

A win now team does not give more touches to the worse player. Now as I said before if you think JT is not clearly better than Mack then yes--you should have no interest in him in redraft and probably be out on him in dynasty as well considering his price. If you think he is clearly better then 4th round redraft seems about right because the Colts will not for a whole season give more carries to a worse back.

Sources? Literally look at this thread when DJ and Bell were brought up and how people cite how because of Bell's contract and what the Texans traded for DJ (and his contract)--both will get guaranteed volume (which I tend to agree with). 

Draft capital is a huge puzzle piece in rookie drafts. Since you play dynasty I assume you know that. A major part of evaluating players' situations is how committed the team is to them--whether that means the contract they are on or the level of pick spent on them

 

If you don't think JT is better than Mack then yes--definitely don't take him in redraft and probably not in dynasty either considering talents like Mack are rarely long term assets.

I think JT is clearly better than Mack--from the tape, from the production profile, from his athletic testing. And if you do there is nothing wrong with a 4th round ADP. Busting is always a risk. If you believe JT is a bust then again--don't take him.

 

2019: 2 missed games

2018: 4 missed games

2017: 2 missed games

Yet I'm the bold one for predicting he will miss games at some point in the season

Royce Freeman had the backfield in theory. He just got outperformed by a UDFA in Lindsay. If you think Taylor is Royce Freeman as a talent then you shouldn't be taking him anywhere--redraft, dynasty, in 2021--literally anywhere.

Montgomery is an awful example considering he actually won the backfield with Cohen being relegated to a pass catching/slot guy and Mike Davis being released not far into the season. Montgomery just wasn't very good and the Bears offense as a whole was even worse. Yet for all that he still finished RB24 because he was the most talented runner on the team. If you think the Colts' line/offense/coaching/QB is the same as the Bears', then again--don't take Taylor. If you believe Taylor as a talent is equal to Molasses..I mean Montgomery; then again, don't take him.

Mark Ingram

2017: 0 missed games

2018: 0 missed games (from injury--suspended first four games)

2019: 0 missed games (rested week 17 since the Ravens had a bye and the 1 seed clinched)

Straw man but nice.

 

Why not run mack into the ground and let him go instead of paying him a big contract and ride your next rookie contract RB with a year of experience under his belt next year?

 

See we can both play what ifs. And you keep assuming JT is better than mack. Is he?

Edited by bhawks489

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6 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Straw man but nice.

 

Why not run mack into the ground and let him go instead of paying him a big contract and ride your next rookie contract RB with a year of experience under his belt next year?

 

See we can both play what ifs.

Because teams with old QBs on a 1 year deal and no immediate replacement in the wings who just dealt a relatively high 1st for a defensive player are trying to win now. They aren't going into a week 11 game against the Titans with the division on the line thinking "Let's use a worse player to keep our rookie fresh. There's always next year" (purely hypothetical but serves the point--if Taylor is better he will be the lead back). Again if you don't think Taylor is definitively better than Mack then you shouldn't have interest in him. I believe his and thus don't have an issue with the ADP

And Mack isn't getting a big contract. The JT pick sealed that. And frankly considering Ballard's whole mentality has been building the trenches since he took over for Ryan "skill positions, skill positions and more skill positions" Grigson: Mack was never going to get a big contract.

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

 And you keep assuming JT is better than mack. Is he?


Without a shadow of a doubt 

 

Dont die on this hill bhawks-  you’re too smart 

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25 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Without a shadow of a doubt 

 

Dont die on this hill bhawks-  you’re too smart 

Dude hasnt taken an NFL snap.

Im not saying he isnt, just asking why you think he is.

 

Dont assume prez

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I doubt the Colts will run more with Rivers vs Brissett. Let’s just say they run the exact same amount as last year. Give like 3-4 carries to Hines per game and that leaves 25 touches for Taylor and Mack. Now let’s say Taylor takes over the backfield. However, Mack is obviously not going to go away. Even if you think he is just “slightly above average” it’s still enough to get work in the modern RB landscape. So that gives Taylor like 15 carries and Mack 10. Since Taylor is so much better apparently let’s give him an entire half a yard more per carry than Mack had last year. However, it’s hard to expect him to get ALL the GL work. Still, let’s give him a rushing TD every other game. That gives us:

240/1,176/8

In terms of receptions, I doubt there’s much. I don’t see him doing better than someone like Henry has done. So let’s go with 15/150/1.

So IF the Colts run as much with Rivers as with Brissett, IF Taylor averages 5 YPC, and IF Taylor takes the starting role from Mack you are looking at RB15 in half PPR based on last year. That’s realistically the BEST case scenario unless Mack gets injured. Yet he’s already going around RB20.

 

It's not realistic that Taylor runs with this rumored dominance and establishes a 75/25 lead share by week 2/3? I'd say that's probably the best case scenario in terms of realism. Also, why wouldn't Indy run more? You don't think establishing more leads and better QB play will lead to more attempts for the backfield? I honestly believe the off-season moves helped every back in the rotation. I believe they were fifth in the league in attempts, so not much room for growth, but I do see that as a baseline with, most likely, more efficiency. Being 11th in total rushing touchdowns gives them room for improvement as well, especially if Taylor is that guy. 

Edited by buckeyestilidie
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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Dude hasnt taken an NFL snap.

Im not saying he isnt, just asking why you think he is.

 

Dont assume prez

Production profile, tape, athletic testing, durability, dominating even when the entire defense was gameplanned to stop him

I can go into depth on any of these but I trust my evaluations of players. 

Many times they are right: AJ brown, Sutton, Lockett, DJ moore, Ronald Jones, Barkley (everyone was right about him but I had him as a top 2 Dynasty RB before ever taking a snap)

Many times they are wrong: JJ arcega whiteside, Sony Michel, Lamar jackson, Metcalf

But I’ll take that over pussyfooting around in doubt (not saying that’s you—just my thought process): yes taylor is better than mack to me and thus will take over the backfield at some point this year and be worth his ADP. I have defended this position with ample evidence through this thread; and if I am wrong, I will come back and own it at the end of the year. (Unless it’s because he got Covid, tore his ACL before getting a shot or something dumb like that)

Edited by mocha4313
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I doubt the Colts will run more with Rivers vs Brissett. Let’s just say they run the exact same amount as last year. Give like 3-4 carries to Hines per game and that leaves 25 touches for Taylor and Mack. Now let’s say Taylor takes over the backfield. However, Mack is obviously not going to go away. Even if you think he is just “slightly above average” it’s still enough to get work in the modern RB landscape. So that gives Taylor like 15 carries and Mack 10. Since Taylor is so much better apparently let’s give him an entire half a yard more per carry than Mack had last year. However, it’s hard to expect him to get ALL the GL work. Still, let’s give him a rushing TD every other game. That gives us:

240/1,176/8

In terms of receptions, I doubt there’s much. I don’t see him doing better than someone like Henry has done. So let’s go with 15/150/1.

So IF the Colts run as much with Rivers as with Brissett, IF Taylor averages 5 YPC, and IF Taylor takes the starting role from Mack you are looking at RB15 in half PPR based on last year. That’s realistically the BEST case scenario unless Mack gets injured. Yet he’s already going around RB20.

 

 

Those stats would put him at 193 points in .5 ppr, which would have been good for RB15 in 2019. Given this is your estimate of his best case scenario, and you say he is going around RB20, it seems as if you are saying he is appropriately valued? I don't get what your point is here, it seems as if you are saying there is upside with him at ADP even if he is in a timeshare, but yet your posts indicate that you seem to think he isn't worth the cost.

Edited by MJJ28
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Posted (edited)
On 4/25/2020 at 2:17 AM, Gohawks said:

It's a weird situation and even though i love the talent he will most likely be a DND.

Mack is a good RB. He is a patient runner with good vision. It's not like Mack is a system RB that Taylor can just replace. He's an actual legit RB. Hines is still going to see a lot of 3rd down work as he is a good route runner and a good 3rd down back.

Bleh. No thanks. I'm not going to draft a guy that you have to hope for an injury in order for him to get legit work. He's going to be another one of those RBs going in the 3rd-5th round where people will say "He's talented so he HAS to take over the backfield." Problem is Mack is talented also. 

The pick also makes zero sense from the Colts perspective. 

lol, from my perspective. Mack is erratic, can't catch (maybe the same can be said of Taylor? Not sure) and gets dinged up and only has a year left on his contract. IMO the OL made him look better than he was. I will be very surprised if Taylor isn't the go-to guy in short order. He's way more talented than Mack. 

But that's from the Colt and NFL angle. From an FF angle, I think I agree on DND (assuming his current perceived draft value). It's impossible to tell how this will shake out.

Edited by bomont
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43 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Those stats would put him at 193 points in .5 ppr, which would have been good for RB15 in 2019. Given this is your estimate of his best case scenario, and you say he is going around RB20, it seems as if you are saying he is appropriately valued? I don't get what your point is here, it seems as if you are saying there is upside with him at ADP even if he is in a timeshare, but yet your posts indicate that you seem to think he isn't worth the cost.

When your best case scenario is finishing roughly 25% higher than your ADP than no you are not worth the cost. Guys like Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Conner, and a few others easily have top 10 potential and in some cases if things fall perfectly top 5. 

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26 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

When your best case scenario is finishing roughly 25% higher than your ADP than no you are not worth the cost. Guys like Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Conner, and a few others easily have top 10 potential and in some cases if things fall perfectly top 5. 

 

Eh, I don't really agree that that is the upside for those guys. Gurley, Bell, and Johnson are all past their primes and more likely to fall off a cliff than relive the glory days. They've got the name value, but they aren't particularly great players at this stage in the game. I'll be drafting my team for 2020, not 2016, so if they are all falling in the same area I'll take a swing on the guy who might have some juice, not the guys we know don't.

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If there is an NFL season in 2020, it is going to be so funny to come back after it and read this thread again.  Jonathan Taylor is going to be one of the NFL's next big stars.

And the stat heads in this thread are talking about Marlon Mack, David Johnson and Le'Veon freaking Bell being prefered over him.  Sheesh. 

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

When your best case scenario is finishing roughly 25% higher than your ADP than no you are not worth the cost. Guys like Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Conner, and a few others easily have top 10 potential and in some cases if things fall perfectly top 5. 

In my opinion Le'Veon and especially DJ suck eggs. I mean DJ got outperformed by Chase bleeping Edmonds. Gurley was paid a massive amount of money last year and still the team couldn't give him a load--because he runs like a 70 year old man. Then they eat a massive amount of dead cap just to get rid of him and we are supposed to be impressed? His signing is a big name Hail Mary for the Falcons regime that knows their window (and with it their jobs) are closing. Until I see him carry serious volume post knee and hold up I don't believe it can be done. Conner I would probably take over JT--at least for now

If you are drafting these other guys top be top 5 RBs you must have just woken up from 2016.

Edited by mocha4313
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