LarryDavid

Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, bomont said:

lol, from my perspective. Mack is erratic, can't catch (maybe the same can be said of Taylor? Not sure) and gets dinged up and only has a year left on his contract. IMO the OL made him look better than he was. I will be very surprised if Taylor isn't the go-to guy in short order. He's way more talented than Mack. 

But that's from the Colt and NFL angle. From an FF angle, I think I agree on DND (assuming his current perceived draft value). It's impossible to tell how this will shake out.


fair perspective-  we don’t know how this will all shake out on a weekly basis.    Mack as a cheapish insurance policy against the unknown would be wise.   2020 could be messy.  
 

that said....the hand wringing over “is JT actually good”,   “he hasn’t played a single snap”,  or my fave... “you’re all acting like he’s Saquon or Zeke.” ....is ridiculous.    He’s got all the production,   Health,  and freakishly elite physical traits one could ask for.    All the guy did was put up 3 2000yard seasons while running track for fun.   Nick Chubb is the comp.  
 If you don’t recognize talent on this level when you see it...I’d suggest a different hobby.   Brewing beer maybe?  

Edited by Impreza178
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5 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

.  
that said....the hand wringing over “is JT actually good”,   “he hasn’t played a single snap”,  or my fave... “you’re all acting like he’s Saquon or Zeke.” ....is ridiculous.    He’s got all the production,   Health,  and freakishly elite physical traits one could ask for.    All the guy did was put up 3 2000yard seasons while running track for fun.   Nick Chubb is the comp.  
 If you don’t recognize talent on this level when you see it...I’d suggest a different hobby.   Brewing beer maybe?  

For like the 10th time almost every single RB that walks through Wisconsin and gets to start puts up absurd numbers. In 2017 they had a top 10 line in the nation, 2018 the #1, and last year a top 5. His physical traits also aren’t “freakish”. He had a very good 40 and then was average to slightly above average in almost every other combine drill.

People recognize the talent but that doesn’t make him a sure thing. Guys like Penny, Richardson, D. Wilson, R. Matthews, and Best all got drafted higher than Taylor and didn’t really work out. Look at Fournette who was viewed as a generational like freak and he’s basically a volume dependent performer. 

It’s not saying he isn’t a great prospect or isn’t very talented. He was my #1 ranked RB from this class. However, as of now that’s all he is: a prospect. Going around acting like he’s already better than a bunch of these guys is premature. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

For like the 10th time almost every single RB that walks through Wisconsin and gets to start puts up absurd numbers. In 2017 they had a top 10 line in the nation, 2018 the #1, and last year a top 5. His physical traits also aren’t “freakish”. He had a very good 40 and then was average to slightly above average in almost every other combine drill.

People recognize the talent but that doesn’t make him a sure thing. Guys like Penny, Richardson, D. Wilson, R. Matthews, and Best all got drafted higher than Taylor and didn’t really work out. Look at Fournette who was viewed as a generational like freak and he’s basically a volume dependent performer. 

It’s not saying he isn’t a great prospect or isn’t very talented. He was my #1 ranked RB from this class. However, as of now that’s all he is: a prospect. Going around acting like he’s already better than a bunch of these guys is premature. 

Also as pointed out earlier: you would have to go back to Ron Dayne to find a Wisconsin RB that put up numbers like Taylor from his freshman year onwards.

No one said he is a sure thing: there is always a chance at busting, but this is what I have said repeatedly--if you think he is a bust, or in the same realm talent wise as Penny, David Wilson or god forbid Trent Richardson, then don't take him...ever. Not this year, not in dynasty, not in 2021.

I don't think that and believe he is already better than a bunch of garbage NFL RBs. If you think he is equal to those sh--tty backs (current DJ or Bell, Royce Freeman, Montgomery, those busts), I don't see any reason for you to have interest in him ever. Or why you would rank him as your number 1 RB from this class when you think there is a huge chance of him being trash like those guys

Edited by mocha4313
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6 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 If you don’t recognize talent on this level when you see it...I’d suggest a different hobby.   Brewing beer maybe?  

 

Gohawks--if you do start brewing your own beer, be sure to tell me the trade name so I can stear clear.  You will probably eschew the exciting new hop varities and put in plain old industry standard hops, nearing the end of their useful life.

And your beer will be as boring as your Le'Veon Bell led 6th place fantasy team.

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Posted (edited)


 

Edited by markrc99

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24 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

 

Gohawks--if you do start brewing your own beer, be sure to tell me the trade name so I can stear clear.  You will probably eschew the exciting new hop varities and put in plain old industry standard hops, nearing the end of their useful life.

And your beer will be as boring as your Le'Veon Bell led 6th place fantasy team.


🦈 🦈 🦈 

 

🔥 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

“Going around acting like he’s already better than a bunch of these guys is premature.”


To be a fantasy asset who does Taylor have to be better than, Marlon Mack right? I thought he was a guy, but after the season he had they offered him, nothing! 

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2 minutes ago, markrc99 said:


To be a fantasy asset who does Taylor have to be better than, Marlon Mack right? I thought he was a guy, but after the season he had they offered him, nothing! 

Marlon Mack is a good player.

But to be paid big as an RB in the modern NFL you need to be better than that, especially with the RB class we just had entering on cheap rookie deals

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5 minutes ago, markrc99 said:


To be a fantasy asset who does Taylor have to be better than, Marlon Mack right? I thought he was a guy, but after the season he had they offered him, nothing! 

 

That doesnt prove anything. Taylor wont be offered anything either. I dont think people are suggesting Taylor wont be better than Mack, just that Mack and Hines will take enough work to cap Taylor's ceiling for 2020.

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6 minutes ago, Evincar said:

That doesnt prove anything. Taylor wont be offered anything either. I dont think people are suggesting Taylor wont be better than Mack, just that Mack and Hines will take enough work to cap Taylor's ceiling for 2020.

Too early to say that. If he is elite, he will get his money--might not be from the Colts, but it will be from somewhere. If he is Fournette type mediocre, then yes he will not.

Issue with this is that a win now team with a short window cannot afford to play a worse player (not Hines--third down work won't be Taylor's, at least for this year), and then throw in the likelihood of Mack doing what he has every year he has been in the league and getting hurt/missing a few games--and I think it is a pretty safe bet Taylor takes over the backfield this year if he is indeed the better player

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22 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

That's literally one of the stupidest football related charts i've ever seen.

 

Pretty hard for JT to lead the NFL in fumbles while in college. Its also very disingenuous to have that comparison because it might cause casual fantasy players to believe that JT doesnt have a fumbling issue...

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:


To be a fantasy asset who does Taylor have to be better than, Marlon Mack right? I thought he was a guy, but after the season he had they offered him, nothing! 

Why pay a RB when you can draft cheap, fresh legs? All I hear on these boards is how RBs are overrated and you don’t need to pay one. 

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38 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Why pay a RB when you can draft cheap, fresh legs? All I hear on these boards is how RBs are overrated and you don’t need to pay one. 

Exactly.  A dumb franchise like the Jets or Rams or Cardinals would have signed Mack to a big extension.  A smart franchise like the Colts has drafted a hot new rookie RB, and will soon be sending Mack to the discard pile so someone like the Bucs can sign him.

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Exactly.  A dumb franchise like the Jets or Rams or Cardinals would have signed Mack to a big extension.  A smart franchise like the Colts has drafted a hot new rookie RB, and will soon be sending Mack to the discard pile so someone like the Bucs can sign him.

So they are going to ride mack this year and let taylor take the reigns next year. I agree.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

So they are going to ride mack this year and let taylor take the reigns next year. I agree.

If Mack is better then yes. A team with a limited window pushing their chips to the table for a deep playoff run--signing an old QB on a 1 year deal, trading a high 1st for a defensive player, drafting a polished WR prospect specialized to contribute immediately rather than a developmental/project upside guy, passing on taking a QB early with those picks (13 overall and their two second rounders)--is going to run the guy who gives them the best chance to win.

 

If you think that's Mack, power to you. I disagree but it's a sound position

If you think the Colts will ride a worse player who gives them less of a chance to win just to save their rookie for next year--you are wrong

Edited by mocha4313
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Posted (edited)
On 6/21/2020 at 3:06 PM, Gohawks said:

For like the 10th time almost every single RB that walks through Wisconsin and gets to start puts up absurd numbers. In 2017 they had a top 10 line in the nation, 2018 the #1, and last year a top 5. His physical traits also aren’t “freakish”. He had a very good 40 and then was average to slightly above average in almost every other combine drill.

People recognize the talent but that doesn’t make him a sure thing. Guys like Penny, Richardson, D. Wilson, R. Matthews, and Best all got drafted higher than Taylor and didn’t really work out. Look at Fournette who was viewed as a generational like freak and he’s basically a volume dependent performer. 

It’s not saying he isn’t a great prospect or isn’t very talented. He was my #1 ranked RB from this class. However, as of now that’s all he is: a prospect. Going around acting like he’s already better than a bunch of these guys is premature. 

Fair counterpoint. I think stats (eg the combine) are of far less value than most; I look at what the guy does on the field. Wisconsin having a great OL is a good point, but teams really focused on stopping him and he still tore it up more than "every single RB that walks through Wisconsin" with rare exception. I don't think he's the next (insert great RB name here), but I do think he's an excellent runner and since he proved what he can do with a good OL - which the Colts have - and if the Colt passing game steps up - is an excellent complement to keep Ds honest and make some noise on his own if they try to just hound Rivers.

I was surprised they drafted him (but not surprised they wisely waited to draft a QB and got a low risk great upside guy in Eason). The Colts had one of the most interesting off-seasons of all teams IMO. No I don't see a SB in this short-lived Rivers era but stranger things have happened. They should be capable at least of upsetting SB hopefuls if this pans out enough for them to make the playoffs.

Course that's all conjecture and they could suck. lol  But if key people stay healthy (big if these days!), I would be surprised if this isn't a legit team. 

Edited by bomont
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It seems to me that the Colts will be quite good if the 2020 season is played.

I think Rivers is shot, but opposing D's and D Coordinators usually seem to keep respecting players like Rivers for a few years even after they have largely lost their effectiveness.

That means few or no stacked boxes loaded up to stop JT.  And with that line, kid is going to feast.

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6 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

It seems to me that the Colts will be quite good if the 2020 season is played.

? I don't think there's any real question that the season will be played.

 

Quote

I think Rivers is shot, but opposing D's and D Coordinators usually seem to keep respecting players like Rivers for a few years even after they have largely lost their effectiveness.

I think he's definitely on the edge, but "shot" may be pushing it...the Charger OL wasn't as good as the Colts and he seems to still do mostly well when he gets time.

 

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I wish I had your optimism that a season will take place.

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16 hours ago, bomont said:

Wisconsin having a great OL is a good point, but teams really focused on stopping him and he still tore it up more than "every single RB that walks through Wisconsin" with rare exception.

Eh... Quoting myself form earlier: "Clement had 1,400 in 2016, Gordon 2,600 in 2014, Gordon 1,600 and James White 1,400 in 2013, Ball 1,800 in 2012, Ball 1,900 in 2011, and they had THREE 1,000 yard rushers in 2010."

So it's not even really with rare exception. Yes, i'd say he clearly did better than everyone other than Gordon who nearly broke Sanders college rushing record. However, they also often times had 2-3 NFL RBs on the roster. Of course it's well known that college uses RBBCs like crazy whenever possible and that's evident here as well. 2016 they had 2 NFL RBs on the roster, 2015 2, and 2010-2014 they had 3 RBs in each season that went on to play in the NFL. Hell, they had M. Ball, J. White, and M. Gordon on the same damn team. I do agree that Taylor is more talented than all of these guys. However, the point is Wisconsin turns out NFL RBs like no one else and RBs put up absurd stats at Wisconsin like no one else. Wisconsin has also only averaged over 200 passing YPG twice all decade. So all of these RBs faced stacked boxes that's just how the program operates. Point is, while his stats are impressive no matter how you look at it they are also a bit inflated due to the program he played for.

17 hours ago, bomont said:

but I do think he's an excellent runner and since he proved what he can do with a good OL - which the Colts have - and if the Colt passing game steps up - is an excellent complement to keep Ds honest and make some noise on his own if they try to just hound Rivers.

Eh... There's a big difference between running behind a great college line and a great NFL line. The talent gaps in college are greatly inflated compared to the NFL. The gap between the best college team and like the 7th-10th best college team is sometimes like the gap between the best NFL team and the worst NFL team. Most games though you are probably playing teams outside the top 50. The point is, if you have the best line in college they can pretty much overpower any team they face. In the NFL, the best line is usually going to get you good blocking not huge gaping holes. 

17 hours ago, bomont said:

They should be capable at least of upsetting SB hopefuls if this pans out enough for them to make the playoffs.

I think they are a legit dark horse. Decent QB, very good line, and good RBs. It will hinge on if their defense can make that step. They have a lot of talent on that side of the ball and if that defense can make a leap into the top 5 or at the minimum top 10 they'll be a legit elite team and contender with their offensive line and run game. I do not however think the window with Rivers guarantees Taylor a ton of work just because he is better than Mack. The NFL is trending towards using RBBCs whenever possible. Even if Mack was on the Panthers or Giants you would likely see some form of split work. If an NFL team has multiple good RBs they'll use both of them. It just doesn't make sense to keep a fresh RB on the sideline while letting your best RB get hit over and over again especially if you are a contender and planning on playing 3-4 extra games. 

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On 6/21/2020 at 3:06 PM, Gohawks said:

For like the 10th time almost every single RB that walks through Wisconsin and gets to start puts up absurd numbers. In 2017 they had a top 10 line in the nation, 2018 the #1, and last year a top 5. His physical traits also aren’t “freakish”. He had a very good 40 and then was average to slightly above average in almost every other combine drill.

People recognize the talent but that doesn’t make him a sure thing. Guys like Penny, Richardson, D. Wilson, R. Matthews, and Best all got drafted higher than Taylor and didn’t really work out. Look at Fournette who was viewed as a generational like freak and he’s basically a volume dependent performer. 

It’s not saying he isn’t a great prospect or isn’t very talented. He was my #1 ranked RB from this class. However, as of now that’s all he is: a prospect. Going around acting like he’s already better than a bunch of these guys is premature. 

Nailed it imo

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, therocksays7 said:

Nailed it imo

I'm saying he's better than trash or average RBs like geriatric Gurley, washed up DJ and Bell, Royce Freeman, Montgomery and Penny.

Would it have been foolish to consider Saquon or Zeke better than fringe top 10 RBs before they ever took a snap? Well...I saw their tape, athleticism and production profiles and already knew they were---as did many other people. (I've been wrong many times too--not trying to brag)

JT isn't Saquon or Zeke. That's why I'm not saying he's better than top 10 RBs like Mixon, Chubb, etc. I'm saying he's better than bottom 10 garbage RBs and guys who aren't even starters or in the league.

If you think there is a very high chance he isn't better than David Wilson or even worse: Trent Richardson, then I'm not sure why you would put him as the number 1 RB in your class or ever want him near your team in any capacity--dynasty, 2021, etc.

The best guy I believe I've said JT is better than is Mack

 

And I don't see why he gets held to this unfair standard since he's at Wisconsin.

Teams like Georgia, LSU and Ohio State had better or equal OLs except also having stronger passing attacks to prevent stacked boxes. Yet this doesn't get brought up for Swift, CEH, Dobbins, etc--only Taylor

Edited by mocha4313
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On 6/21/2020 at 3:06 PM, Gohawks said:

For like the 10th time almost every single RB that walks through Wisconsin and gets to start puts up absurd numbers. In 2017 they had a top 10 line in the nation, 2018 the #1, and last year a top 5. His physical traits also aren’t “freakish”. He had a very good 40 and then was average to slightly above average in almost every other combine drill.

People recognize the talent but that doesn’t make him a sure thing. Guys like Penny, Richardson, D. Wilson, R. Matthews, and Best all got drafted higher than Taylor and didn’t really work out. Look at Fournette who was viewed as a generational like freak and he’s basically a volume dependent performer. 

It’s not saying he isn’t a great prospect or isn’t very talented. He was my #1 ranked RB from this class. However, as of now that’s all he is: a prospect. Going around acting like he’s already better than a bunch of these guys is premature. 


Only by those who don’t know how to evaluate running backs. 

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