LarryDavid

Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, mocha4313 said:

Would it have been foolish to consider Saquon or Zeke better than fringe top 10 RBs before they ever took a snap? Well...I saw their tape, athleticism and production profiles and already knew they were---as did many other people.

You kind of address it in the next paragraph but Barkley was a top 5 prospect of all time and Elliot was the second best prospect of the decade (you can argue Fournette here as well). So it’s kind of unfair to compare. Both were clearly top 10 backs. However, so was Fournette and I don’t know how well that worked out.

Again, I like the talent with Taylor. I just don’t think he’s going to get enough volume to compensate for his nonexistent passing game work. It’s as simple as that.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/19/2020 at 6:51 PM, Gohawks said:

Taylor isn't going to see the field during passing situations.

 

On 6/19/2020 at 6:59 PM, Gohawks said:

he will be pretty much useless in the pass game. 

 

On 6/20/2020 at 12:14 AM, Gohawks said:

Especially when you consider the only guarantee with Taylor is that he isn’t going to get any passing situation work. 

 

You keep repeating this over and over again. Almost as if you're completely convinced beyond doubt that Taylor cannot catch the football.

Your level of certainty is strange, mainly because it goes against your own logic of seeing and believing; "we haven't seen him play a single down in the NFL".

 

Since you've familiarized yourself with the 'inflated' stats of Wisconsin running backs, why don't you tell us how often they actually used their backs in the passing game? For example, was Melvin gordon the same pass-catcher in the NFL  - with Philip Rivers at QB - that he was in college? Was corey clement the same pass catcher in the NFL that he was in college?

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is anyone else concerned that JT’s fumbling issues result in Mack getting the goal line work or a significant chunk of it?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Wisconsin fan, JT can catch the ball and he can catch it extremely well. His Junior year he ended up with 26 catches and 5 tds. One of the biggest problems that Taylor has is ball security. If he can just hold onto the football he has a real shot at being a top 7 back in the NFL, especially behind this o-line. Marlon Mack isn't going to fully disappear either. Taylor is going to be a lot like Novocain this year, just give it time. He is going to either be better than MG3 or Monte Ball. He has immense talent and the Colts didn't waste time getting that talent. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

Is anyone else concerned that JT’s fumbling issues result in Mack getting the goal line work or a significant chunk of it?

 

Not if he runs well. If you're a good running back - and i believe Taylor is - then you'll have a longer leash.

 

Adrian peterson and tiki barber had issues with ball security, but they had long, productive careers because they were good running backs. It's not as big a deal as people think. And not difficult to fix.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, predator_05 said:

 

 

 

You keep repeating this over and over again. Almost as if you're completely convinced beyond doubt that Taylor cannot catch the football.

Your level of certainty is strange, mainly because it goes against your own logic of seeing and believing; "we haven't seen him play a single down in the NFL".

 

Since you've familiarized yourself with the 'inflated' stats of Wisconsin running backs, why don't you tell us how often they actually used their backs in the passing game? For example, was Melvin gordon the same pass-catcher in the NFL  - with Philip Rivers at QB - that he was in college? Was corey clement the same pass catcher in the NFL that he was in college?

By page 8, I realized GoHawks obviously had Mack on his dynasty squads. He was downplaying the elite level of the Indy line based on a couple efficiency stats a couple pages back. Ultimately, until we hear/see more from the backfield, it's presumed both are 1A/1B situation. If you believe Taylor is the better talent and can display it behind his road paving offensive line, then Taylor in the 3/4 is a great value. If you and GoHawks have a similar dynasty roster, then Mack is a great value at this point in time. 

Edited by buckeyestilidie
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Not if he runs well. If you're a good running back - and i believe Taylor is - then you'll have a longer leash.

 

Adrian peterson and tiki barber had issues with ball security, but they had long, productive careers because they were good running backs. It's not as big a deal as people think. And not difficult to fix.


 

I see your point but I have to say Tiki Barber is not a reassuring example when you are worried about a talented RB losing goal line work to a vulture.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone who owns Mack in dynasty should trade him now for whatever can be obtained.  Once the games actually start, Mack's already precarious value will plummet the rest of the way off the cliff.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, predator_05 said:

 

 

 

You keep repeating this over and over again. Almost as if you're completely convinced beyond doubt that Taylor cannot catch the football.

Your level of certainty is strange, mainly because it goes against your own logic of seeing and believing; "we haven't seen him play a single down in the NFL".

 

Since you've familiarized yourself with the 'inflated' stats of Wisconsin running backs, why don't you tell us how often they actually used their backs in the passing game? For example, was Melvin gordon the same pass-catcher in the NFL  - with Philip Rivers at QB - that he was in college? Was corey clement the same pass catcher in the NFL that he was in college?

Which of those posts say he cannot catch? I said Hines is going to get all the passing down work. Quote from Reich: “You look at a guy like Nyheim Hines. We talk about Marlon and Jonathan but what about Nyheim? He’s such a good third down back that he’ll play a prominent (role). (Hines) is a starter. He’s a role playing starter.”

Clement hasn’t done jack catching the ball in the NFL so yes he pretty much was. Melvin Gordon also has zero competition early on in his career which allowed him to develop as a pass catcher. Also, I don’t know how using Gordon as a comparison helps. Considering he had a better season by a good amount than anything Taylor’s ever done and he’s still been a flat out JAG running the ball in the NFL.

With Hines having a lock on third down work and Mack at worst cutting down into early down work there simply isn’t going to be enough opportunity for receptions. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, buckeyestilidie said:

By page 8, I realized GoHawks obviously had Mack on his dynasty squads. He was downplaying the elite level of the Indy line based on a couple efficiency stats a couple pages back. Ultimately, until we hear/see more from the backfield, it's presumed both are 1A/1B situation. If you believe Taylor is the better talent and can display it behind his road paving offensive line, then Taylor in the 3/4 is a great value. If you and GoHawks have a similar dynasty roster, then Mack is a great value at this point in time. 

1. I don’t play dynasty. Nor am I high on Mack. In fact, I wouldn’t draft him at all. 

2. I was downplaying the RUN blocking off the line not the elite level of the line. They’re a very good pass blocking unit which makes people think they’re elite across the board. They’re no Ravens line in terms of run blocking. Above average? Yes. However, people are over selling the line here.

3. So it’s presumed it’s 1A/1B. I’ve said a long time ago that it’s going to be a split. I just don’t think Taylor is going to force Mack out enough to be worth a 3rd/4th round value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

1. I don’t play dynasty. Nor am I high on Mack. In fact, I wouldn’t draft him at all. 

2. I was downplaying the RUN blocking off the line not the elite level of the line. They’re a very good pass blocking unit which makes people think they’re elite across the board. They’re no Ravens line in terms of run blocking. Above average? Yes. However, people are over selling the line here.

3. So it’s presumed it’s 1A/1B. I’ve said a long time ago that it’s going to be a split. I just don’t think Taylor is going to force Mack out enough to be worth a 3rd/4th round value.

That's ultimately the divider line for the Indy backfield, at the moment. If you believe Taylor shines and nabs the starting gig at some point in the year, grab around the 3/4 ad reap the benefits. If you believe Mack is good enough to withhold carries from Taylor in 2020, then avoid. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Which of those posts say he cannot catch? I said Hines is going to get all the passing down work. Quote from Reich: “You look at a guy like Nyheim Hines. We talk about Marlon and Jonathan but what about Nyheim? He’s such a good third down back that he’ll play a prominent (role). (Hines) is a starter. He’s a role playing starter.”

Clement hasn’t done jack catching the ball in the NFL so yes he pretty much was. Melvin Gordon also has zero competition early on in his career which allowed him to develop as a pass catcher. Also, I don’t know how using Gordon as a comparison helps. Considering he had a better season by a good amount than anything Taylor’s ever done and he’s still been a flat out JAG running the ball in the NFL.

With Hines having a lock on third down work and Mack at worst cutting down into early down work there simply isn’t going to be enough opportunity for receptions. 

 

The Patriots would beg to differ

And yet...Gordon still had a considerably worse overall production profile. Taylor had 3 seasons better than all except Gordon's last

He wasn't allowed to develop because of zero competition; he was allowed to develop because he was the best playmaker in the backfield and most importantly because he has Philip Rivers as his QB. He had pass catching specialist backs as "competition" like Woodhead and Donald Brown. And despite not getting much pass catching work at Wisconsin getting a bunch of check downs from a QB who loves to throw to backs changed that at the NFL level. Like it did for James White (the ultimate passing down back)--who at Wisconsin had only one season as difference making pass catcher (with only 13 more RECs than Taylor's last season) due to Wisconsin not using RBs to catch passes but developed quickly having a QB who checked down on all downs (like Rivers does).

Hines has had two years to carve out a niche and couldn't even be a "role playing starter" when he had just Mack to compete with. Hell even when Mack got hurt guys like Jonathan Dwyer and Jordan Wilkins were the ones to benefit--not Hines. He will get his shot at a lock on 3rd downs but nothing from the last two years told me he is all that good or as talented as Ekeler to the point he couldn't have 3rd down work usurped

19 hours ago, Gohawks said:

You kind of address it in the next paragraph but Barkley was a top 5 prospect of all time and Elliot was the second best prospect of the decade (you can argue Fournette here as well). So it’s kind of unfair to compare. Both were clearly top 10 backs. However, so was Fournette and I don’t know how well that worked out.

Again, I like the talent with Taylor. I just don’t think he’s going to get enough volume to compensate for his nonexistent passing game work. It’s as simple as that.

Which is why I say he is better than bad NFL RBs like Royce, Penny Montgomery, washed up DJ and Bell and old man Gurley and not top 10 ones like I thought for Zeke and Barkley.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the no preseason thing is kinda interesting to see what it’ll do to rookie RBs.
I don’t see it changing JT’s situation too much as I was under the impression him/Mack would split carries to start the year and now with no preseason it will probably be 1 series in and 1 out for each with Hines getting 3rd down work to start the year. If he proves to be the better back I could see that changing around week 4/5.

For now though I am pushing rookie RBs down a round and rookie WRs are basically DND unless It’s a last round flyer.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that's fair.  The NFL is very difficult for rookies, and with no OTAs, minicamp and maybe? a shortened training camp, and maybe no preseason?  Tougher than ever.

That said, JT is still likely to thrive with any opportunities he does get.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I think that's fair.  The NFL is very difficult for rookies, and with no OTAs, minicamp and maybe? a shortened training camp, and maybe no preseason?  Tougher than ever.

That said, JT is still likely to thrive with any opportunities he does get.


agreed RB is just such a reactive position I think he will do great as long as he gets touches. Look at drake going to Arizona. Didn’t know one single play in the Arizona play book before that week but he’s good and the system was good for him I think it’s a similar situation for Indy and JT... still gonna be a RBBC but i think JT ends up being the leader of it at some point this season.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Recently went 4.4 in a 10 team best ball when Mack went 10.10. Theres no way i could pick JT that early and if Mack is going around round 10? Sign me up all day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is Marlon Mack we are talking about?  Just making sure.  10th round may be a tad early for a nearly worthless veteran handcuff to the star rookie RB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

This is Marlon Mack we are talking about?  Just making sure.  10th round may be a tad early for a nearly worthless veteran handcuff to the star rookie RB.

Not sure if you are being sarcastic, but Mack will probably not be a handcuff, it will be more of an even split (on 1st and 2nd down) with Hines getting all the 3rd down work.  

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

shh, let them continue bumping that ADP. I'll take Mack in the 10th every single time, wouldn't even care if he's announced as the backup before game 1. if this thread does not have 50 pages by week 1 I will be disappointed in you, Rotoworld.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mack is like a physical DVD collection.  Bad news, bud, streaming services in HD (Taylor) has arrived.

Available soon at a garage sale near you for pocket change.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, lolcopter said:

shh, let them continue bumping that ADP. I'll take Mack in the 10th every single time, wouldn't even care if he's announced as the backup before game 1. if this thread does not have 50 pages by week 1 I will be disappointed in you, Rotoworld.

 

Zero RB drafter??? Still play in standard leagues??? Play in best ball leagues where the top half doubles there money??? Play in these new guillotine leagues where the lowest scoring team gets eliminated so boring and safe is smart especially with 17 teams to start the season???

If your playing in a league that has a top heavy payout or if your not first your last mentality then Marlon Mack is not for you, give me players with league winning upside.

https://www.rotoballer.com/fantasy-football-overvalued-rbs-for-2020/749866

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, turner46 said:

 

Zero RB drafter??? Still play in standard leagues??? Play in best ball leagues where the top half doubles there money??? Play in these new guillotine leagues where the lowest scoring team gets eliminated so boring and safe is smart especially with 17 teams to start the season???

If your playing in a league that has a top heavy payout or if your not first your last mentality then Marlon Mack is not for you, give me players with league winning upside.

https://www.rotoballer.com/fantasy-football-overvalued-rbs-for-2020/749866


Very strong 💪 

 

however 

drafting a winning FF squad isn’t just about avoiding safe and swinging for the fences on every pick.   Perceptions will change drastically from now until week4, and again from week 4- week 8 etc.....

 

I’ll be aiming to roster both colts backs in redraft where possible.   Upside and hedge 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:


Very strong 💪 

 

however 

drafting a winning FF squad isn’t just about avoiding safe and swinging for the fences on every pick.   Perceptions will change drastically from now until week4, and again from week 4- week 8 etc.....

 

I’ll be aiming to roster both colts backs in redraft where possible.   Upside and hedge 

 

I recently almost came across my first Mack share in a ppr, I took Taylor in round 4 and then fast forward to round 9 and Cohen, Mack, Kerryon, Sony, Moss, Duke Johnson and Lindsay among others were on the board. I went with Cohen who was 10th in ppr in 2018 and 29th in 2017 as a rookie while the his new coordinator just targeted (I know nagy still there) Fournette 100 times and Foles is coming along with him and possibly getting the nod. I was gonna bite the bullet and take Mack in the 10th as insurance but I wasn't given the chance and I would 100/100 go Cohen again over Mack owning Taylor or not.

Adding had I not owned Taylor already, my round 9 pick would remain but my round 10 pick which turned into Duke Johnson but I would have went Mack but with no Taylor I wouldn't consider Mack and have went with Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Jefferson, Duke like I did, possibly a QB as only 7 QB's were off the board etc...

Edited by turner46
adding insurance part

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I get the early ADP for CEH on the Chiefs but not understanding Taylor’s. yes Indy has a great o-line and he has great talent but the path to a lot of touches seems unclear. You’ve got Mack and Hines still there and Mack was decent if not great. The whole interrupted preseason as well it may take some time before he features heavily as well given he is a rookie. Seems to be going a full 3, sometimes 4 rounds earlier than other rookie backs like Swift and Akers. Would much rather try my luck on those given other players you are missing out in rd.4 as opposed to rd.6 - 8 for those other 2. Definitely a high risk high reward pick but has bust written all over it right now in my eyes

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Mack is like a physical DVD collection.  Bad news, bud, streaming services in HD (Taylor) has arrived.

Available soon at a garage sale near you for pocket change.

So you mean people are excited about the new thing which will break down at most important point in a game, upset you and then you have to call your friend to get that DVD back?

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.