LarryDavid

Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, JAG said:

Coaches want to win, they don't care about using one guy vs two unless a certain way gets the results they seek.

Take a look at both Mack and former sidekick Wilkins splits.  Mack does his best with a spread formation, lots of WRs.  I think it helps his vision on the field.  Wilkins is at his best in bunch formations, feeling his way through the line.  Doesn’t need to rely on making someone miss.

Now what do you know about Wisconsin?  They primarily play bunch sets, don't ask their RB to be superman.  Taylor is very good in those conditions, and has that elite speed once he hits a hole.

Another thing, Mack struggles and has always struggled in the red zone.  If they can use bunch sets with a higher % gaining first downs, they ultimately score more and win more.

I think this is a situation where one guy is going to see 70% of the carries between the 20s, and the other gets the TDs and can hit home runs because he's fresh and has the correct chops for running behind jumbo packages.

 

 

Yeah I can agree on most of that.I think 70% will be high despite this backfield being one of the busiest in the NFL. How bad was Mack in the red zone? I really don't remember this being a huge issue. I'll absolutely concede that Taylor will get most of the goal line work. Hynes also seems like a Rivers type of player and obviously will see some 3rd downs... and it wouldn't surprise me to see him out of the slot on occasion.

Edited by fluffy69

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1 hour ago, fluffy69 said:

Unfortunately, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying they're  going to use BOTH GOOD RUNNING BACKS and hope that they're both full of juice for the stretch. I capitalized, because you didn't seem to get that part.

Saving your players so they’re fresh for un-guaranteed games is a terrible plan.

Im going to save my best pitcher for game one of the World Series, forget about game 6 of the NLCS.

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32 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Saving your players so they’re fresh for un-guaranteed games is a terrible plan.

Im going to save my best pitcher for game one of the World Series, forget about game 6 of the NLCS.

Which is not what he's saying. As he's been telling you for a while now.

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An even better plan would be to take Taylor in the fourth round and a different player, more useful than Mack, in the 10th round.

@Impreza178

@impreza187

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1 hour ago, JAG said:

Coaches want to win, they don't care about using one guy vs two unless a certain way gets the results they seek.

Take a look at both Mack and former sidekick Wilkins splits.  Mack does his best with a spread formation, lots of WRs.  I think it helps his vision on the field.  Wilkins is at his best in bunch formations, feeling his way through the line.  Doesn’t need to rely on making someone miss.

Now what do you know about Wisconsin?  They primarily play bunch sets, don't ask their RB to be superman.  Taylor is very good in those conditions, and has that elite speed once he hits a hole.

Another thing, Mack struggles and has always struggled in the red zone.  If they can use bunch sets with a higher % gaining first downs, they ultimately score more and win more.

I think this is a situation where one guy is going to see 70% of the carries between the 20s, and the other gets the TDs and can hit home runs because he's fresh and has the correct chops for running behind jumbo packages.

Out of curiosity, where do you find the formation splits you mentioned above?

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Out of curiosity, where do you find the formation splits you mentioned above?

Mickey Mouse sports site.

Player splits.

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5 minutes ago, JAG said:

Mickey Mouse sports site.

Player splits.

Not familiar with that one - URL?

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5 minutes ago, JAG said:

E S P N

Thank you.

E S P N indicates that Mack has scored literally a third of the time within ten yards of the end zone.

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12 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Thank you.

E S P N indicates that Mack has scored literally a third of the time within ten yards of the end zone.

So does Hines and Wilkins.

I think the Colts want higher than 1/3.

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7 minutes ago, JAG said:

So does Hines and Wilkins.

I think the Colts want higher than 1/3.

1/3 of the time is literally exactly on par with Ezekiel Elliott.  I’m not sure how much more efficient you can get running the ball near the goal line.

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4 minutes ago, BMcP said:

1/3 of the time is literally exactly on par with Ezekiel Elliott.  I’m not sure how much more efficient you can get running the ball near the goal line.

They have one of the best guards in football in Quinton Nelson.  They may be able to with the right combination of RBs and TEs.  

Indy also didn't have as good of luck getting the big plays last year.  That was another thing I read they set out to accomplish for this season.

 

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2 minutes ago, JAG said:

They have one of the best guards in football in Quinton Nelson.  They may be able to with the right combination of RBs and TEs.  

Indy also didn't have as good of luck getting the big plays last year.  That was another thing I read they set out to accomplish for this season.

 

I wouldn’t even hedge - Quenton Nelson is the best guard in football in a Brooks-less season.

I just used Elliott as an example because he is unquestionably one of the best backs in the league, running behind one of the best O-lines in the league, playing in one of the best offenses in the league.  Point being, scoring a third of the time is pretty darn good from that field position.

I’m not trying to knock Taylor, who should be awesome, I’m just saying a lack of GL efficiency won’t be what forces the Colts’ hand when it comes to divvying up carries amongst this talented corps.

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

I wouldn’t even hedge - Quenton Nelson is the best guard in football in a Brooks-less season.

I just used Elliott as an example because he is unquestionably one of the best backs in the league, running behind one of the best O-lines in the league, playing in one of the best offenses in the league.  Point being, scoring a third of the time is pretty darn good from that field position.

I’m not trying to knock Taylor, who should be awesome, I’m just saying a lack of GL efficiency won’t be what forces the Colts’ hand when it comes to divvying up carries amongst this talented corps.

The thing about Zeke is he takes all the rushing load.  Took every goal line run last year.  Efficiency is going to drop using him that much.  I have no doubt Zeke could be better than 1/3.  I think it was his rookie year he was way higher.  1/3 is a nice number, but you can do better.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, JAG said:

The thing about Zeke is he takes all the rushing load.  Took every goal line run last year.  Efficiency is going to drop using him that much.  I have no doubt Zeke could be better than 1/3.  I think it was his rookie year he was way higher.  1/3 is a nice number, but you can do better.

He was slightly higher (41% as opposed to 33%).  Of course, he did have over 300 carries that season (2nd overall), so it’s not like the Cowboys were using him selectively.

 I mean, I’m not arguing it’s impossible to exceed 1/3 of the time.  It’s just unlikely.

Edited by BMcP

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On 7/7/2020 at 1:06 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

An even better plan would be to take Taylor in the fourth round and a different player, more useful than Mack, in the 10th round.

@Impreza178

@impreza187

 

 

Sure, but I'll grab Mack before the 10th every time and we can see how it plays out. He's earned the right to keep a lot of his carries and he'll get enough to be relevent at least into late season.

On 7/7/2020 at 1:01 PM, Boudewijn said:

Which is not what he's saying. As he's been telling you for a while now.

 

Thank you.

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1 hour ago, fluffy69 said:

 

 

Sure, but I'll grab Mack before the 10th every time and we can see how it plays out. He's earned the right to keep a lot of his carries and he'll get enough to be relevent at least into late season.

 

Thank you.

The only thing Mack has "earned" is the right to have one of the greatest running backs in college football drafted at his position.

Did Tom Brady "earn" the right to be the Patriots QB in 2020?  Huh...

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2 hours ago, fluffy69 said:

 

 

Sure, but I'll grab Mack before the 10th every time and we can see how it plays out. He's earned the right to keep a lot of his carries and he'll get enough to be relevent at least into late season.

 

Thank you.

Completely agree here - Mack is such good value at his ADP.  I have mentioned this before in multiple threads, but people seem to be way too high on many of these rookie RBs this season - which in turn is creating so much value for the incumbents at those positions.

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12 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The only thing Mack has "earned" is the right to have one of the greatest running backs in college football drafted at his position.

Did Tom Brady "earn" the right to be the Patriots QB in 2020?  Huh...

 

Mack ran well last year, the colts did few things well offensively. They'll probably want to keep doing things they do well IMO. Brady- Bledsoe comp isn't very relevent. Mack has been fine for Colts, Bledsoe was coming off of a bad season and bleeding internally lol.

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7 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Completely agree here - Mack is such good value at his ADP.  I have mentioned this before in multiple threads, but people seem to be way too high on many of these rookie RBs this season - which in turn is creating so much value for the incumbents at those positions.

 

 

I love Taylor's upside, But there's no scenario(outside of injury) where I don't see the Colts using Mack AND Hynes as well. There is a ton of talent in that backfield and they'll utilize every bit of it. As a Colts fan first and fantasy fan second, I'm excited for Taylor...but they have zero need to rush him. 100% agreed on the rookie rb hype.

 

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2 hours ago, fluffy69 said:

 

Mack ran well last year, the colts did few things well offensively. They'll probably want to keep doing things they do well IMO. Brady- Bledsoe comp isn't very relevent. Mack has been fine for Colts, Bledsoe was coming off of a bad season and bleeding internally lol.

Wooo try again.  Did Brady "earn" the right to be the Patriots QB in 2020?

All Brady did was win 6 Superbowls.  And yet the Patriots went in another direction.  The NFL is heartless business.  

If you believe that drafting Taylor signifies that the Colts were happy with Mack and their running game, you need to learn to read between the lines.

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39 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Wooo try again.  Did Brady "earn" the right to be the Patriots QB in 2020?

All Brady did was win 6 Superbowls.  And yet the Patriots went in another direction.  The NFL is heartless business.  

If you believe that drafting Taylor signifies that the Colts were happy with Mack and their running game, you need to learn to read between the lines.

 

Reading between the lines is crucial for fantasy success. You're right about this. It's also important to cut through the coach-speak BS. I do take beat reporters and player's quotes as somewhat serious and good information that can lead to a breakout.

I'm not quite buying the "keep Taylor fresh" argument. They have this guy on a 4-year contract with each year being incredibly cheap. They have every incentive to run this guy into the ground, see how he reacts in 4 more years, and maybe tack on a 2-3 year deal afterwards. If he's elite, he'll get extended before then.

Jacobs got immediate usage last year. Sanders talent (2nd round) started to show itself last year. I just think this guy will get 250 touches this year, which more room next year.

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I’m inclined to keep it simple and just take Reich at his word: this will be a 1-2 punch featuring Mack and Taylor in tandem.  The Colts already run more often than just about any team in the league, and this move allows them to commit to even more rushing, which should allow plenty of carries for both backs.  Yes, Taylor will get his, but what is being lost in the Taylor hype is that Mack should still be quite valuable from a fantasy standpoint.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BMcP said:

I’m inclined to keep it simple and just take Reich at his word: this will be a 1-2 punch featuring Mack and Taylor in tandem.  The Colts already run more often than just about any team in the league, and this move allows them to commit to even more rushing, which should allow plenty of carries for both backs.  Yes, Taylor will get his, but what is being lost in the Taylor hype is that Mack should still be quite valuable from a fantasy standpoint.


Quite valuable? He was barely an RB2 last year when he didn’t have a top drafted rookie to deal with. Mack is going to be worthless this year for fantasy teams looking to actually win. Championship rosters don’t have much use for RB3/4s. He might be a decent bye week desperation dart throw, but he’s not going to be helping any team on the weekly. I’m not even fully on the JT hype train, but Mack is irrelevant from a fantasy perspective with his complete lack of upside.

Edited by MJJ28
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5 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The only thing Mack has "earned" is the right to have one of the greatest running backs in college football drafted at his position.

Did Tom Brady "earn" the right to be the Patriots QB in 2020?  Huh...

What? 

If you are comparing Mack to Tom Brady I think you lost the argument

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