LarryDavid

Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

You keep saying worse player but we haven’t seen that yet. Mack didn’t seem like a bust to me but I guess I haven’t watched every game. 
 

I picked Taylor 1.02 this year so I have stake there but I feel better about 2021 Taylor than I do 2020

Mack is a good player definitely not a bust. Taylor is a step or 3 above that to me

If he isn't then he will be replaced soon and not worth the 1.2 because "good RBs" cycle in and out of the league

Edited by mocha4313

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

On a season where practice/training camp is cut short?

Yeah. RB is the most instinctive of all positions IMO. It's not like QB/WR/etc where they have to learn to "gel" with other players as much as far as play development. Not saying that doesn't apply, esp with receiving/blocking, but when they're running, once the QB hands them the ball, their instincts should take over to make the most of the play if they're good.  

Edited by bomont
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Marlon Mack's a 4.5 YPC and 6 YPR player the last few years- albeit last year was without Luck. Getting 4.5 YPC on a good O-line and bad QB / mediocre defense is pretty solid. But now the defense projected better and the QB projected better, imagine J. Taylor averaging 5.5 a clip and 8-9 YPC? That's staggeringly better. Not sure if J Taylor will be a 3-down back but he has the build and longevity to support the claim.

Again, I can see Marlon Mack being a siphon, but if J. Taylor gets the money touches (red-zone, 1st and 2nd down receptions, big breakaway runs), I think he can still return on the 4th round ADP...with potential of being a top-5 back.

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21 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Marlon Mack's a 4.5 YPC and 6 YPR player the last few years- albeit last year was without Luck. Getting 4.5 YPC on a good O-line and bad QB / mediocre defense is pretty solid. But now the defense projected better and the QB projected better, imagine J. Taylor averaging 5.5 a clip and 8-9 YPC? That's staggeringly better. Not sure if J Taylor will be a 3-down back but he has the build and longevity to support the claim.

Again, I can see Marlon Mack being a siphon, but if J. Taylor gets the money touches (red-zone, 1st and 2nd down receptions, big breakaway runs), I think he can still return on the 4th round ADP...with potential of being a top-5 back.

This x10

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

This x10

 

I guess another way to look at this is to compare Chubb / Hunt. Chubb is getting really low-quality touches but is getting volume, keeping his value kind of afloat. Hunt is getting a lot of money touches and sometimes in on the goal-line.

Imagine if Taylor is the goal-line back exclusively, and is getting between the 20s touches, and is getting receptions with a RB-friendly QB like Rivers. I can see Mack getting between the 20s touches or "breather back" with 7-10 touches a game. I think Hines is probably toast- he gets hyped up and keeps flopping.

Wouldn't you draft a player in the 4th round ADP if they were getting Hunt-quality touches plus exclusive goal-line work? I would. 

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4 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

I guess another way to look at this is to compare Chubb / Hunt. Chubb is getting really low-quality touches but is getting volume, keeping his value kind of afloat. Hunt is getting a lot of money touches and sometimes in on the goal-line.

Imagine if Taylor is the goal-line back exclusively, and is getting between the 20s touches, and is getting receptions with a RB-friendly QB like Rivers. I can see Mack getting between the 20s touches or "breather back" with 7-10 touches a game. I think Hines is probably toast- he gets hyped up and keeps flopping.

Wouldn't you draft a player in the 4th round ADP if they were getting Hunt-quality touches plus exclusive goal-line work? I would. 

I think this kid is good, I hate how high he's being drafted.  I think he gets a fair share of the carries inside the 10, but will he see all?  Nope, not a chance.  I think he's going to be the guy at the 1 or 2 when they opt for smash mouth.  If it's 3rd down and they have an RPO, it'll either be Mack or Hines.  Taylor will get more touches than Wilkins ever did.  Maybe on carries per game basis he'll overtake Mack by the end of the season, but it'll be December or Mack will be injured or both.

He'd need to take the job away in the first month of the year to be a 'top 5' guy, so that is a pie in the sky wish.  Top 10 can be done with a boatload of TDs while splitting the touches.  Still not likely. Top 15 is a realistic ceiling for this year, with nearly half the work and being the hammer at the goal.

So depends where you see him vs Mack and the potential for taking work from him.  I see Mack getting the bulk early, keeping a between the 20s role and deployed in 11 personel inside the 10.  JT starts slow, gets more open field touches as the season goes, taking a majority of goal touches and winding up being just short of Macks touches - keeping both from being top 20 backs.  Both being in that high RB3/low RB2 chase all season with JT outscoring Mack by virtue of being a better goal line converter.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

I guess another way to look at this is to compare Chubb / Hunt. Chubb is getting really low-quality touches but is getting volume, keeping his value kind of afloat. Hunt is getting a lot of money touches and sometimes in on the goal-line.

Imagine if Taylor is the goal-line back exclusively, and is getting between the 20s touches, and is getting receptions with a RB-friendly QB like Rivers. I can see Mack getting between the 20s touches or "breather back" with 7-10 touches a game. I think Hines is probably toast- he gets hyped up and keeps flopping.

Wouldn't you draft a player in the 4th round ADP if they were getting Hunt-quality touches plus exclusive goal-line work? I would. 

Probably not 🤷‍♂️ 

there’s wr1/2s and lead backs still available in the fourth.   At the end of the day Hunt is a cop 

Edited by Impreza178

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7 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Probably not 🤷‍♂️ 

there’s wr1/2s and lead backs still available in the fourth.   At the end of the day Hunt is a cop 

I heard rumblings hunt may be used more as a WR. I like him this upcoming year, especially with an injury to chubb (obviously)

Although I do agree that Id rather have (in general) lead backs over hunt 

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5 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I heard rumblings hunt may be used more as a WR. I like him this upcoming year, especially with an injury to chubb (obviously)

Although I do agree that Id rather have (in general) lead backs over hunt 

You can have all sorts over him.

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On 7/9/2020 at 12:36 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

Wooo try again.  Did Brady "earn" the right to be the Patriots QB in 2020?

All Brady did was win 6 Superbowls.  And yet the Patriots went in another direction.  The NFL is heartless business.  

If you believe that drafting Taylor signifies that the Colts were happy with Mack and their running game, you need to learn to read between the lines.

 

 

 

Again, the Brady comp is just not relevent. One makes 30 mill, is a qb and is in the twilight of his career. Mack is 24 and the Colts first 1000 yd rusher since Addai. The colts were absolutely happy with Mack last year.I'll take their word for it and use some common sense when looking at their roster and payroll for next year. Is that supposed to be whoa or wooo...they're two different words. Also, no need to lecture me on the cruelty of the NFL, I've been seeing it for a long time man. To anyone jumping in and seeing this, I should clarify again....I believe both backs will get work and I think it's common sense if you understand the NFL in the least.

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On 7/9/2020 at 1:17 PM, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Reading between the lines is crucial for fantasy success. You're right about this. It's also important to cut through the coach-speak BS. I do take beat reporters and player's quotes as somewhat serious and good information that can lead to a breakout.

I'm not quite buying the "keep Taylor fresh" argument. They have this guy on a 4-year contract with each year being incredibly cheap. They have every incentive to run this guy into the ground, see how he reacts in 4 more years, and maybe tack on a 2-3 year deal afterwards. If he's elite, he'll get extended before then.

Jacobs got immediate usage last year. Sanders talent (2nd round) started to show itself last year. I just think this guy will get 250 touches this year, which more room next year.

 

 

Thanks for the respectful response(we need a little more of that these days). On the flip side of your argument, why not run Mack into the ground in his last year under contract(when he's basically got every reason to ball out) and save some juice for your future stud? Jacobs and Sanders didn't have a 1000 yd rusher with a new contract to earn in front of them either. Sanders needed an injury as well. I'll go with the under on 250 touches, hynes will play some third downs as well as open sets. The Colts are running their way to the AFC South folks, they're going to spread the touches out and there'll be a lot of them. Have a great weekend.

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Marlon Mack's a 4.5 YPC and 6 YPR player the last few years- albeit last year was without Luck. Getting 4.5 YPC on a good O-line and bad QB / mediocre defense is pretty solid. But now the defense projected better and the QB projected better, imagine J. Taylor averaging 5.5 a clip and 8-9 YPC? That's staggeringly better. Not sure if J Taylor will be a 3-down back but he has the build and longevity to support the claim.

Again, I can see Marlon Mack being a siphon, but if J. Taylor gets the money touches (red-zone, 1st and 2nd down receptions, big breakaway runs), I think he can still return on the 4th round ADP...with potential of being a top-5 back.

 

 

Gotta think Reich, Ballard and Sirianni realize though that Taylor was averaging those numbers in college while MM was stiff- arming the heads off of NFL linebackers the past two seasons. Those numbers should be staggeringly better. I just want to say a s a Colts fan, I hope y'all are on the money about Taylor. I have high hopes for him, I just think touches are going to be spread between a dynamite backfield and he may be getting a little too much early hype.

 

 

I just realized you werent comparing taylor's college numbers, my bad.

Edited by fluffy69
misread quoted post.

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On 7/10/2020 at 12:18 AM, mocha4313 said:

And about "winning games"--they are likely to be in a close division race with the Titans maybe the Texans. It's 16 games--every one of which is important. A win now team does not play a worse player to save the better one unless they have a their playoff seed wrapped up. Also don't see why you are calling him a "star young RB" if you think Mack is better

Because Taylor is simply better

If you disagree fair (busting is always possible)--you probably don't want Taylor in redraft or dynasty though if you legitimately think Mack is better

 

If Jonathon Taylor went down with a torn acl on carry number 1 this year. The colts would still have  a good shot at the AFC South.

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1 hour ago, fluffy69 said:

Again, the Brady comp is just not relevent. One makes 30 mill, is a qb and is in the twilight of his career. Mack is 24 and the Colts first 1000 yd rusher since Addai. The colts were absolutely happy with Mack last year.I'll take their word for it and use some common sense when looking at their roster and payroll for next year. Is that supposed to be whoa or wooo...they're two different words. Also, no need to lecture me on the cruelty of the NFL, I've been seeing it for a long time man. To anyone jumping in and seeing this, I should clarify again....I believe both backs will get work and I think it's common sense if you understand the NFL in the least.

Agreed.  Brady is far more accomplished and revered by Patriot fans than Mack will ever be, by any fanbase, yet Brady was shown the door.

Your statement was that Mack had "earned" the right to be given a significant running back workload in 2020.  There is no such thing in the NFL.

"Wooo" or "whoa" would both fit to describe the flawed theories you are espousing.  Both are onomatopoeia for exclamations of exasperation.

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Love the insistence on bringing up Tom Brady in a Taylor/Mack convo.

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1 hour ago, fluffy69 said:

Jacobs and Sanders didn't have a 1000 yd rusher with a new contract to earn in front of them either. Sanders needed an injury as well.

Are you sure about that? Sanders had Howard who was in the final year of his contract in front of him, who up until last year had 1313, 1122 and 935 yards rushing. 
Howard is a great comp for Marlon Mack, nothing special but is capable if given volume. Taylor is a special player, if you don’t believe that, fine but he is going to be a top 5 back in the next year or 2. The only chance Mack has to be a top 5 RB is to join the CFL.

I prefer taking chances and JT is a great one to take a chance on.

ESPN: his ADP right now is 69.1 which puts him in round 6 and Mack’s ADP is 122 which is round 11

Yahoo: JT 38.1, Mack 108.1

MFL: JT 30, Mack 132

Obviously site rankings have a huge impact of ADPs for those specific sites. If you are in the JT bandwagon ESPN is a good place to draft, if you prefer Mack MFL is a good place to draft.

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28 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Love the insistence on bringing up Tom Brady in a Taylor/Mack convo.

 

 

Yeah when it comes down to this comp, I'm out. My ignore list is growing steadily, but it's a fair price to pay to isolate knowledgeable posters.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Are you sure about that? Sanders had Howard who was in the final year of his contract in front of him, who up until last year had 1313, 1122 and 935 yards rushing. 
Howard is a great comp for Marlon Mack, nothing special but is capable if given volume. Taylor is a special player, if you don’t believe that, fine but he is going to be a top 5 back in the next year or 2. The only chance Mack has to be a top 5 RB is to join the CFL.

I prefer taking chances and JT is a great one to take a chance on.

ESPN: his ADP right now is 69.1 which puts him in round 6 and Mack’s ADP is 122 which is round 11

Yahoo: JT 38.1, Mack 108.1

MFL: JT 30, Mack 132

Obviously site rankings have a huge impact of ADPs for those specific sites. If you are in the JT bandwagon ESPN is a good place to draft, if you prefer Mack MFL is a good place to draft.

 

 

I've said it already, let Mack slide if you like. I'll take him way before those ADP's, so they're irrelevant to me. Howard and Mack are prob great comps and their usage will probably be similar as well, although i believe Mack has underrated hands in the passing game and could succeed as a 3 down back on a team without a Taylor and Hynes in the mix. Health is really the only issue I ever worry about with Mack. I'm not sure how Mack got so underrated, I'm loving it though. If Taylor doesn't put the ball on the ground early on, he probably gets a lot of goal line work. ( some other posters have mentioned this and I failed to acknowledge it.)

 

 

should have mentioned that i think Mack has much more potential for the big play these days and that no one was really reaching for Sanders the way some seem to be reaching for JT. Sanders won me a league last year. I had zero confidence starting him with howard in, He was literally a no-brainer with him out. That usage prob would have continued for a while despite Sanders being better.

 

Edited by fluffy69

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7 minutes ago, fluffy69 said:

 

 

I've said it already, let Mack slide if you like. I'll take him way before those ADP's, so they're irrelevant to me. Howard and Mack are prob great comps and their usage will probably be similar as well, although i believe Mack has underrated hands in the passing game and could succeed as a 3 down back on a team without a Taylor and Hynes in the mix. Health is really the only issue I ever worry about with Mack. I'm not sure how Mack got so underrated, I'm loving it though. If Taylor doesn't put the ball on the ground early on, he probably gets a lot of goal line work. ( some other posters have mentioned this and I failed to acknowledge it.)

 

I guess my point of the ADPs was you can easily have both.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Love the insistence on bringing up Tom Brady in a Taylor/Mack convo.

I agree.  Marlon Mack is probably a nice guy but he does not come close to Tom Brady in terms of stature and accomplishments.  If an NFL player could "earn" a big role by what he had done in previous seasons, Brady would still be the Patriots' quarterback.

In fact, competent teams, and I believe the Colts are one, reevaluate every player on the roster every year.  Last year the team had a grab bag of okay to bad running backs "led" by Marlon Mack.  So the organization decided to use a premium pick on one of the most successful running backs in the history of college football.

But, according to some, that move the team made is largely irrelevant to Mack since he "earned" the right to be the starter in 2020 by averaging 4.6 yards per carry behind one of the best O-lines in the league in 2019.

Edited by SharkSwimmer
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56 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I agree.  Marlon Mack is probably a nice guy but he does not come close to Tom Brady in terms of stature and accomplishments.  If an NFL player could "earn" a big role by what he had done in previous seasons, Brady would still be the Patriots' quarterback.

In fact, competent teams, and I believe the Colts are one, reevaluate every player on the roster every year.  Last year the team had a grab bag of okay to bad running backs "led" by Marlon Mack.  So the organization decided to use a premium pick on one of the most successful running backs in the history of college football.

But, according to some, that move the team made is largely irrelevant to Mack since he "earned" the right to be the starter in 2020 by averaging 4.6 yards per carry behind one of the best O-lines in the league in 2019.

You are very strangely fixated on the word “earned.”  
 

Forget “earned.”  Forget “Tom Brady.”  The only thing necessary to understand is that Marlon Mack will still be heavily involved in the Colts’ offense this season.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I agree.  Marlon Mack is probably a nice guy but he does not come close to Tom Brady in terms of stature and accomplishments.  If an NFL player could "earn" a big role by what he had done in previous seasons, Brady would still be the Patriots' quarterback.

In fact, competent teams, and I believe the Colts are one, reevaluate every player on the roster every year.  Last year the team had a grab bag of okay to bad running backs "led" by Marlon Mack.  So the organization decided to use a premium pick on one of the most successful running backs in the history of college football.

But, according to some, that move the team made is largely irrelevant to Mack since he "earned" the right to be the starter in 2020 by averaging 4.6 yards per carry behind one of the best O-lines in the league in 2019.

 

 

They're very competent. Competent enough to know that Mack was their BEST offensive player last year that wasn't an olineman. Competent enough to build on that and be able to do more of it this year. This is the last reply you get from me, it's pretty obvious you don't watch Mack and you don't have much to offer knowledge wise. I'm not really interested in interacting with you, enjoy the season.

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2 hours ago, fluffy69 said:

They're very competent. Competent enough to know that Mack was their BEST offensive player last year that wasn't an olineman. Competent enough to build on that and be able to do more of it this year. This is the last reply you get from me, it's pretty obvious you don't watch Mack and you don't have much to offer knowledge wise. I'm not really interested in interacting with you, enjoy the season.

Mack was the Colts' BEST offensive skill position player in 2019?  How sad.  No wonder the organization poured premium resources into upgrading in numerous spots.

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1 minute ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Mack was the Colts' BEST offensive skill position player in 2019?  How sad.  No wonder the organization poured premium resources into upgrading in numerous spots.

However sad you may be about that, it won’t change the fact that Mack will be heavily involved.

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I wouldn't bet the farm on "heavily" involved (depends what you mean by that) but he won't be watching Taylor get all the carries either. IMO it's just very up in the air. Mack is an OK, maybe pretty good/not great back. He's erratic. Taylor is unknown but probably a good, possibly great, NFL back. How they use those two is anyone's guess but IMO the best Mack can realistically hope for is 1b to Taylor's 1a, and if Taylor pans out as expected, it won't even be that.  

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