LarryDavid

Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

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I prefer to get off to as fast start as much as possible. Fantasy is a long season, full of trades, waivers , etc. You don’t know what’s going to happen.

Drafting Taylor in the 3/4th round seems like a dangerous game, you will have to hit on more of your other picks while you wait for him to take over the backfield (which is no guarantee). If for some reason he doesn’t take over, you have really hurt your roster for the season 

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2 hours ago, Breesus said:

I prefer to get off to as fast start as much as possible. Fantasy is a long season, full of trades, waivers , etc. You don’t know what’s going to happen.

Drafting Taylor in the 3/4th round seems like a dangerous game, you will have to hit on more of your other picks while you wait for him to take over the backfield (which is no guarantee). If for some reason he doesn’t take over, you have really hurt your roster for the season 


That’s far better than having a guy come roaring out of the gate and disappearing during the latter half when you have byes and injuries to deal with.   Truth is we don’t know when JT gets a starters workload.  Nor do we know which guys will flame out early.   The fourth round isn’t a big ask for league winning upside.   You need upside and floor players to win. 

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22 hours ago, Impreza178 said:


That’s far better than having a guy come roaring out of the gate and disappearing during the latter half when you have byes and injuries to deal with.   Truth is we don’t know when JT gets a starters workload.  Nor do we know which guys will flame out early.   The fourth round isn’t a big ask for league winning upside.   You need upside and floor players to win. 

 

Yup I mean CEH seems to trending toward a consensus 1st round pick - if he hits, congrats you got what you paid for. If JT hits, congrats you most likely won your league..I see guys like Scott B on twitter loving CEH and Scott B is usually a R/R type guy so puzzling to me how JTs R/R seems to be downplayed by a lot of pros 

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22 hours ago, Impreza178 said:


That’s far better than having a guy come roaring out of the gate and disappearing during the latter half when you have byes and injuries to deal with.   Truth is we don’t know when JT gets a starters workload.  Nor do we know which guys will flame out early.   The fourth round isn’t a big ask for league winning upside.   You need upside and floor players to win. 

I take it you’re also really high on hunt/ swift/ dobbins/ Akers? Anyone that becomes a bell cow if player X gets injured?

 

and yes, if you draft JT you’re banking on a mack injury. He’s a vet presence and a solid back. Even if JT is “the starter” mack will be a thorn in his side. Doesn’t have league winning upside unless someone gets injured, like a bajillion other players 

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Posted (edited)

I think Taylor is an amazing talent, and is going to be a force in this league.

But his situation with Clyde is not remotely the same. KC’s offense is in a different league than Indy, CEH is a great receiver also, Taylor can be but has yet to show it. Also Indy has stated on multiple occasions that they will approach this year by committee, and they really do like Mack.

Just based off this you would expect him not to be the bellcow you all want for at least 1/4-1/3 of the season (being conservative). CEH has no competition and is being given the keys from the start. 
 

By the time Taylor does take over, which is no guarantee, the draft price could hurt your roster in a big way and you will be climbing out of hole. The talent is there but it is a bigger gamble than most are acting like it is, is all I’m saying.
 

 

Edited by Breesus
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Marlon Mack will be about as big a thorn in the side to Jonathan Taylor as Chester Taylor was to Adrian Peterson was during AD's rookie year.  In other words, barely noticable.

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4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Marlon Mack will be about as big a thorn in the side to Jonathan Taylor as Chester Taylor was to Adrian Peterson was during AD's rookie year.  In other words, barely noticable.

I love the enthusiasm, and I think Taylor is superior. Mack has had plenty of chances and never really nailed down that role, so maybe they let Taylor run with it. Literally. 

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5 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Marlon Mack will be about as big a thorn in the side to Jonathan Taylor as Chester Taylor was to Adrian Peterson was during AD's rookie year.  In other words, barely noticable.

Does money also grow on trees in imagination land? 

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https://www.colts.com/news/frank-reich-marlon-mack-jonathan-taylor-training-camp-conference-call

Quote

» Marlon Mack is considered the "starter" at running back as of now: When the Colts moved up three spots in the second round of this year's draft to select All-American Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor, many immediately wondered what that meant for Marlon Mack's status moving forward.

Over the last few months, both Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni have talked about the excitement of having a "1-1 punch" at running back, with two starting-caliber players able to attack a defense at any given time throughout a game.

(...)

"Marlon's a starter," Reich said. "Marlon's earned it. He's had a couple of really good years for us. But we're going to continue to take the same approach that we have, where it's week in and week out, hot hand, all those things.

 

"We're expecting a big year from all our backs, but in particular, Marlon, he looks good," Reich continued. "So (I) just feel good about how the backs complement each other. I really do. I feel like that's a strong room for us. I feel like those guys are very unselfish and they're in it for each other. And so Marlon needs to be a leader the way he plays, and we expect him to do that."

I think this a lot of coach speak and motivational BS. But I also think Taylor is not going to get it thrown in his lap, he will need to earn it.

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7 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Marlon Mack will be about as big a thorn in the side to Jonathan Taylor as Chester Taylor was to Adrian Peterson was during AD's rookie year.  In other words, barely noticable.


You’ve been rolling with some hot takes lately, I see. 

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42 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


You’ve been rolling with some hot takes lately, I see. 

Those are the only kind I have.

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

https://www.colts.com/news/frank-reich-marlon-mack-jonathan-taylor-training-camp-conference-call

I think this a lot of coach speak and motivational BS. But I also think Taylor is not going to get it thrown in his lap, he will need to earn it.

And earn it he shall, quickly.

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45 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


You’ve been rolling with some hot takes lately, I see. 

I will tell you what: you take Le'Veon Bell in the 4th round, I'll take Jonathan Taylor in the fourth round, and let's check back after the season to see who was happier with his selection.

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3 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

giphy.gif

No need for a crystal ball.  I have a mediocre, injury prone veteran "starting" running back; a top-3 offensive line; and a team using a premium pick on a 3x 2000 yard producer who blew up the combine.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I will tell you what: you take Le'Veon Bell in the 4th round, I'll take Jonathan Taylor in the fourth round, and let's check back after the season to see who was happier with his selection.


Wow, that post hit such a nerve that you had to quote it twice. Lol. I like Taylor. Heck, I love Taylor. If he fell to me in my keeper draft in the 1st, I’d snap him up because I can keep him in the 4th rd next year. But alas, the league’s Indy homer has the pick right in front of me. And if this had been a normal summer with a normal camp and a normal preseason, I’d be more inclined to ride with you. But I believe you’re underestimating the impact of all this, especially when you consider that the Colts are bringing back two vets who don’t need to get up to speed. I believe Mack will be there and make his presence felt most or all of the season. He’s not simply going to be tossed to Indy’s scrap heap, and if Taylor’s ball possession issues follow him to the NFL, it only take an ill-timed fumble or two to find himself sitting more for Mack. You feel differently, and that’s cool. It’s what makes this forum and fantasy sports so great and so much fun. 

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14 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Marlon Mack will be about as big a thorn in the side to Jonathan Taylor as Chester Taylor was to Adrian Peterson was during AD's rookie year.  In other words, barely noticable.

Does anyone else kind of love this comparison? 

In '07 Chester Taylor was coming off an 340+ touch 1500 yard season. The Vikings draft AP anyway. The next year they combine to finish top 6 in the NFL in carries, most rushing yards per game at 164 ypc (next closest Jacksonville at 149 then Pittsburgh at 135), and most rushing TD's at 22 (next closest  IND, SD at 19).

AP went off for 1600 total yards 13 TDs, breaking off explosive runs left and right. But Chester Taylor was no slouch, with 1100 total yards and 7 TDs of his own..

Worth mentioning that having Hines in the offense could siphon some of that PT...but with with Phillip Rivers being a huge upgrade over Jacoby Brisset, having the best run-blocking OL in the NFL, and already finishing top 5 in rushing attempts last year, I'm honestly just trying to get them both at this point. If they run the ball as much as I think they will, there's going to be plenty of opportunity for them to both eat, with JT leading the charge by fantasy playoffs.

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OK so today the coaches said they would “ride the hot hand” which would obviously be Taylor. Maybe you Taylor truthers are on to something I may be wrong 😂

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4 minutes ago, Breesus said:

OK so today the coaches said they would “ride the hot hand” which would obviously be Taylor. Maybe you Taylor truthers are on to something I may be wrong 😂


I wouldn’t mind being wrong on him. The question I have is how limited he might be in the passing game. 

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3 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


I wouldn’t mind being wrong on him. The question I have is how limited he might be in the passing game. 

Once Jonathan Taylor starts ripping off 60 yard TD runs, everyone will start caring less that he catches 3-4 passes per game instead of 6-7.

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20 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Once Jonathan Taylor starts ripping off 60 yard TD runs, everyone will start caring less that he catches 3-4 passes per game instead of 6-7.

I think if he catches 64 receptions this season, people won’t care if he’s not ripping off 60-yard TD runs.

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29 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Once Jonathan Taylor starts ripping off 60 yard TD runs, everyone will start caring less that he catches 3-4 passes per game instead of 6-7.


Three to four catches puts him at 48-64 for the season. That would be amazing. Heck, I’d be happy and encouraged if he topped 30 receptions for the season. Lol. 

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Posted (edited)

Taylor was a flat/dump-off “receiver” in his lone year of catching passes - he’s not going to be doing anything of the sort with Hines on the roster commanding potentially 10 catches a game (per Reich).

Edited by BMcP
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I'm glad there's some skepticism about Taylor's role and the fact that using a top 48 pick on him could be difficult, but I do think towards the end (4th round), the reward is worth the risk. I'm picking 9/16/33/40 in my main league, and I will consider him at 40. What's difficult is that there's very solid WR's available at 40 and Taylor has a few things to overcome: not a total chump already on roster (read: KC backs), shortened offseason, any possible pass protection/fumbling issues in the early weeks that lead to a setback. It's certainly an interesting risk/reward take.

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, BMcP said:

Taylor was a flat/dump-off “receiver” in his lone year of catching passes - he’s not going to be doing anything of the sort with Hines on the roster commanding potentially 10 catches a game (per Reich).

If Nyheim Hines is catching 10 passes per game then Reich should start freshening up his cover letter

Edited by smeeze
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