LarryDavid

Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

No offense guys, I like talking over stuff with y'all and I definitely say I've learned stuff here, but I don't substitute some rando on the internet's opinions for my own in any walk of life.

Edited by JE7HorseGod

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8 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Hey did you guys know that joshua18 said CMC was going to be good from day 1? I sure didn't know. Thanks for the weekly reminder that you, the all knowing and mighty, predicted that CMC who was a top 10 pick was going to be a good NFL RB.

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Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile

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7 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

No offense guys, I like talking over stuff with y'all and I definitely say I've learned stuff here, but I don't substitute some randos on the internet's opinions for my own in any walk of life.

That shouldn't be the point of the forum. The point is to gather information from other perspectives to help you come to your own decision. The entire term of "fantasy expert" is BS. They all do what everyone here does.

I know how I evaluate players and it works for me. Like everyone else i'm right and wrong. My opinions sometimes change when I read threads on this forum but it sure as hell isn't because someone told me so. It's usually with new information presented. 

I wasn't high on CMC because he was a rookie RB in a uncertain situation. Joshua had him as the 3rd-4th RB in the entire NFL entering the season. He finished 10th in PPR and 15th in standard but he will never tell you that. I'm not high on Taylor for the exact same reason. Just because I was "wrong" about CMC doesn't mean i'll all of a sudden view Taylor in a different light. I never thought CMC was a bad back or wouldn't make it in the NFL. My entire issue with him was he was a rookie in an unknown outlook and I didn't want to deal with it in his first year. 

The best you can do in fantasy is swing the odds in your favor. I don't view it as swinging the odds in my favor by drafting a rookie who is going to play for a team with an already good veteran RB and a good 3rd down back. If Taylor does good so be it. 

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Just now, Gohawks said:

That shouldn't be the point of the forum. The point is to gather information from other perspectives to help you come to your own decision. The entire term of "fantasy expert" is BS. They all do what everyone here does.

I know how I evaluate players and it works for me. Like everyone else i'm right and wrong. My opinions sometimes change when I read threads on this forum but it sure as hell isn't because someone told me so. It's usually with new information presented. 

I wasn't high on CMC because he was a rookie RB in a uncertain situation. Joshua had him as the 3rd-4th RB in the entire NFL entering the season. He finished 10th in PPR and 15th in standard but he will never tell you that. I'm not high on Taylor for the exact same reason. Just because I was "wrong" about CMC doesn't mean i'll all of a sudden view Taylor in a different light. I never thought CMC was a bad back or wouldn't make it in the NFL. My entire issue with him was he was a rookie in an unknown outlook and I didn't want to deal with it in his first year. 

The best you can do in fantasy is swing the odds in your favor. I don't view it as swinging the odds in my favor by drafting a rookie who is going to play for a team with an already good veteran RB and a good 3rd down back. If Taylor does good so be it. 

Concur.

I'm here to express my opinion, hear others and do some research if I find a point compelling.

Someone tooting their own horn or throwing shade on someone else makes me ignore whatever else they are trying to say.

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3 hours ago, LostAtSea said:

 

I'm leaning CEH.

 

Everything coming out of KC and the other teams FOs have convinced me that the worries that I had that were clouding my profile of CEH were overblown and to trust his tape and production going to that system. He's not too small and won't be a COP back. Veach loves him as their "next franchise RB", Reid said he was "better than" Westbrook, Mahomes hand-picked him, other FOs were quoted saying they were "pissed" and "distraught" that he wouldnt be there early 2nd.

 

As of now - subject to change - I'm all in on CEH.

 

 

Over the entirety of their careers, who knows. There are just too many unknowns, including two big ones with Taylor. One, can he fix any ball security issues he has. Two, will he be used in the passing game. In 1/2 PPR and PPR leagues, the likelihood that CEH is used extensively in the passing game is going to close any gap Taylor can put on him in the running game. But, if Taylor proves that leap from 2018 to 2019 in receptions was for real and Indy uses him as a receiving back (and if he doesn't fumble), then I like Taylor better longterm. 

Both have roadblocks in 2020, with the assumption being that CEH's will be easier to overcome. But both will have their respective backfields on lockdown in 2021 once DWill and Mack leave via FA. The question as to which one will be better in FF will revolve around passing game usage and ball security as much as anything. 

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Over the entirety of their careers, who knows


Your right but If I had to pick one I guess I’d lean toward the guy with pat mahomes and the coach who makes elite RBs in Andy Reid.

Although I’d assume Taylor is going to start off fine behind this oline and having rivers check down to him repeatedly. He’s a better back than Mack and will get touches one way or the other. Once rivers probably only has a year or 2 left in the tank. Then on to a rookie and that learning curve. 

Edited by Stonej14
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13 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


Your right but If I had to pick one I guess I’d lean toward the guy with pat mahomes and the coach who makes elite RBs in Andy Reid.

Although I’d assume Taylor is going to start off fine behind this oline and having rivers check down to him repeatedly. He’s a better back than Mack and will get touches one way or the other. Once rivers probably only has a year or 2 left in the tank. Then on to a rookie and that learning curve. 


If Rivers lasts two years in Indy, he’ll likely hand the reins to a third-year Eason, not a rookie. 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

That shouldn't be the point of the forum. The point is to gather information from other perspectives to help you come to your own decision. The entire term of "fantasy expert" is BS. They all do what everyone here does.

I know how I evaluate players and it works for me. Like everyone else i'm right and wrong. My opinions sometimes change when I read threads on this forum but it sure as hell isn't because someone told me so. It's usually with new information presented. 

I wasn't high on CMC because he was a rookie RB in a uncertain situation. Joshua had him as the 3rd-4th RB in the entire NFL entering the season. He finished 10th in PPR and 15th in standard but he will never tell you that. I'm not high on Taylor for the exact same reason. Just because I was "wrong" about CMC doesn't mean i'll all of a sudden view Taylor in a different light. I never thought CMC was a bad back or wouldn't make it in the NFL. My entire issue with him was he was a rookie in an unknown outlook and I didn't want to deal with it in his first year. 

The best you can do in fantasy is swing the odds in your favor. I don't view it as swinging the odds in my favor by drafting a rookie who is going to play for a team with an already good veteran RB and a good 3rd down back. If Taylor does good so be it. 


Wow, that’s a lot of words to say: “I was wrong to doubt CMAC; I hope I’m right this time to doubt Jonathan Taylor”

 

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Just now, joshua18 said:


Wow, that’s a lot of words to say: “I was wrong to doubt CMAC; I hope I’m right this time to doubt Jonathan Taylor”

 

 
You’re the same guy that said Eli Manning would be a league winner in 2019 ain’t ya?

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3 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 
You’re the same guy that said Eli Manning would be a league winner in 2019 ain’t ya?


Nope. But nice try since I am an Eli fan.

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11 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 
You’re the same guy that said Eli Manning would be a league winner in 2019 ain’t ya?

Dont forget David Montgomery. Pumping the **** out of him too.

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13 minutes ago, joshua18 said:


Wow, that’s a lot of words to say: “I was wrong to doubt CMAC; I hope I’m right this time to doubt Jonathan Taylor”

 


Good grief, can you please move on?? Ever heard the phrase, “Act like you’ve been there before”? Well, act like you’ve been correct before. It’s like you’ve latched onto the only thing you’ve ever been right about. 

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18 fumbles with 15 of those fumbles being turnovers. He turns the ball over, so the risk is there that he sees the bench, but the Colts wanted their guy and went up. Curious with all the those miles on him as well how successful he will be. He is behind CEH and Akers in dynasty. With the line, he could put up 1500 yards and 10 scores real easily. He can also put the ball on the ground. High risk high reward gamble pick.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Dont forget David Montgomery. Pumping the **** out of him too.

Same dude said the giants were smart for drafting saquon over Lamar Jackson 

Edited by Stonej14
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1 minute ago, Stonej14 said:

Same dude said the giants were smart for draft saquon and not Lamar Jackson or josh Allen.. that didn’t age well 


Yeah... I’m still gonna take Saquan over Josh Allen, Chief. 

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5 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:


Yeah... I’m still gonna take Saquan over Josh Allen, Chief. 


The guy that has the same amount of rushing touchdowns as josh Allen? Lol teasing but I had to include both of them since he said both and not pick and choose what guys I wanted to list. I wanted to be factual not CNN 

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As humorous as this old bickering about who was right or wrong on random stuff is.. this is getting really off topic. 
 

I am like everyone and can easily see how CEH going to the Chiefs is great for short and long term. He’s a pass catching, shifty back with great balance. He is playing with the best QB in the league and one of the best play callers. I think they are going to make him look good and worth the 1st round pick.. but imo I don’t think he is going to be better than Taylor. 
 

I understand the fumbles and the lack of pads catching in college. The elite guys in fantasy catch the rock.. there is zero doubt about that. But I think he just played in a system that didn’t utilize throwing to the rb and he didn’t look like he couldn’t do the job at the combine. I don’t think he is ever going to be Kamara.. but he can mix in a Zeke light receiving load and for this season definitely catch some River check downs.
 

I don’t think Mack is a scrub but I also know the Colts current front office knows what they are doing and they are convinced Taylor is a horse they can build around. They wouldn’t have traded what they did or took him where they did. I think they took Taylor for right now and because they plan to let Mack walk. Mack also has struggled with injury. A workhorse size back that has blazing track speed does not grow on trees. That offensive line and scheme just screams top 10 perennial back.

 

I don’t plan to talk about this years later for some weird reason.. but I got JT over every back in this draft and I think he’s a top 12 dynasty RB right now. I just love the player, the line and the system and I believe in the front office and coaching. He is going to be a beast. 

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Posted (edited)

This seems to me like they didnt want to pay mack. It makes sense since RBs dont last long and the ones with the big contracts look bad in hindsight. Probably see a hefty dose of mack and JT will have it to himself in 2021

I agree with those thinking hes a great Dynasty pick

Edited by bhawks489
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The way I see it is Mack was a former 4th round pick who was drafted by the same GM but a different head coach and offensive coordinator. Mack wasn't anything special as a rookie then has looked good in 2 years under Reich but has missed time in both years and also has had 1 of if not the best lines to run behind. The Colts clearly seen a guy that would be a ideal fit for their offense so they pounced and traded up. If they were content with Mack not only this year but long term or if they didn't view Taylor as special they would have waited and maybe settled for Akers or Dobbins but they went and got their guy. Taylor is my RB1 for dynasty rookie drafts.

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Fun Fact Taylor's target share in 2019 was one of the higher ones among this RB class this year, when Taylor is dominating to the tune of 30 ish carries a game they don't need to throw 50 times thus is the main reason is receptions is so low.

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Just now, bhawks489 said:

This seems to me like they didnt want to pay mack. It makes sense since RBs dont last long and the ones with the big contracts look bad in hindsight. Probably see a hefty dose of mack and JT will have it to himself in 2021

I was really impressed by Mack, and looking forward to see what he could do with Rivers.

But he was the 143rd pick overall initially, and there were some knocks on him during the draft process - he lacks top end speed, that sort of thing.  Perhaps they feel like his success is more a product of Nelson and that line and didn't want to commit a second contract to him when they could draft someone who is quicker.  I get that.

But I could see this being a bit of a headache this year.  Might as well run Mack into the ground if you're going to let him walk anyway, keep Taylor fresh for the stretch/next year.

I could be wrong.

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21 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I was really impressed by Mack, and looking forward to see what he could do with Rivers.

But he was the 143rd pick overall initially, and there were some knocks on him during the draft process - he lacks top end speed, that sort of thing.  Perhaps they feel like his success is more a product of Nelson and that line and didn't want to commit a second contract to him when they could draft someone who is quicker.  I get that.

But I could see this being a bit of a headache this year.  Might as well run Mack into the ground if you're going to let him walk anyway, keep Taylor fresh for the stretch/next year.

I could be wrong.

I agree that Mack is a nice player and will not go away this year; but with old man Rivers, the Colts are trying to win as many games as possible now, so if Taylor proves himself to be the better option, I think they will roll with him. If not 2021 will be his

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On 4/25/2020 at 6:51 PM, JE7HorseGod said:

I was really impressed by Mack, and looking forward to see what he could do with Rivers.

But he was the 143rd pick overall initially, and there were some knocks on him during the draft process - he lacks top end speed, that sort of thing.  Perhaps they feel like his success is more a product of Nelson and that line and didn't want to commit a second contract to him when they could draft someone who is quicker.  I get that.

But I could see this being a bit of a headache this year.  Might as well run Mack into the ground if you're going to let him walk anyway, keep Taylor fresh for the stretch/next year.

I could be wrong.

That is how they view Mack I think. Mack was always a replaceable late round RB pick that has had injury woes and lack top tier talent. I love him though for being a USF player. I don't see them wanting to keep Taylor fresh for next season. And Mack could be on the trade block. But they will use both players if Mack sticks around.

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Taylor in my opinion should have been a top 20 pick. He is the same size as Ezekiel Elliott, had a little better 40 time, vertical and broad jump. 

You can talk all you want about his o-line but no Alabama RB in the Nick Saban era had that high a yards per carry including the 2 Heisman winners.

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6 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

Taylor in my opinion should have been a top 20 pick. He is the same size as Ezekiel Elliott, had a little better 40 time, vertical and broad jump. 

You can talk all you want about his o-line but no Alabama RB in the Nick Saban era had that high a yards per carry including the 2 Heisman winners.

What is the relevance of the Saban era?

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