LarryDavid

Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

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2nd best odds of winning offensive rookie of the year for a rb at +1000

 

if you’re a betting man that’s good odds

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Can we start him this week confidently.

I am bit nervous, I have him in multiple leagues.

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2 minutes ago, zen25 said:

Can we start him this week confidently.

I am bit nervous, I have him in multiple leagues.

Duh. Jacksonville is Miami 2019...

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8 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 


not sure if that’s a good compliment, I’d rather he say LT

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15 minutes ago, BIGFATPANDA said:


not sure if that’s a good compliment, I’d rather he say LT


Turner had 3-4 really good years once he got to be the lead back. Three 1300 plus yard rushing seasons with 10 plus TDs. And almost no receptions. Might be a very accurate comparison 

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What tier do you guys rank Taylor? If Mack wasn't there I'd feel much better about him, but now I"m not so sure.

What kind of value do you think he holds right now? I got offered Hopkins and Ertz for him and Gesicki so I was a bit surprised. If Mack stays healthy, I can't see Taylor being anything more than a solid flex/RB2 at best.

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1 hour ago, RoseLin23 said:

What tier do you guys rank Taylor? If Mack wasn't there I'd feel much better about him, but now I"m not so sure.

What kind of value do you think he holds right now? I got offered Hopkins and Ertz for him and Gesicki so I was a bit surprised. If Mack stays healthy, I can't see Taylor being anything more than a solid flex/RB2 at best.

low end RB2 honestly - Mack;s presence severely caps his upside.  

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I haven't read everyone else's posts...but am I the only one whose holding up a "lightly colored" red flag? or at least yellow flag?

I don't understand why this guy is going so high in drafts. I understand the talent, the upside, the skill-set.

 

What I don't understand is why he is going so high when Mack is still there. Do people think that Mack is just going to magically disappear?

Mack is still only 24 years old, is coming off his best season where, had he played the 2 games he missed, he probably would've finished with a 260-1,200-9 line. YPC were a little down, but 4.4 still isn't anything to scoff at, especially when you had other "studs" in the league like Fournette, Connor, LeVeon, David Johnson, David Montgomery, Sony Michel, Melvin Gordon and a huge handful of others finish below him (and some, well below him).

 

I have no doubt in my mind that Jonathan Taylor is the superior back (or will become the superior back), but his ADP of like 35 or 40 just seems ludicrous to me. To me...while Mack hasn't done anything to cement himself as "the guy", he certainly hasn't done anything to lose the job. He doesn't fumble, he had 9 games out of the 14 he played where he totaled 70+ yards on the ground...

 

In my mind, Jonathan Taylor should be going in the ADP 50-75 range, as a guy with immense talent, who could potentially take over as the starter mid-way through the season...

But to me...that's a lot to pay for a guy who may be widely inconsistent in terms of his role for the 1st half of the season.

Whether you want to believe it or not, Mack's not "just going to go away".

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14 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

I haven't read everyone else's posts...but am I the only one whose holding up a "lightly colored" red flag? or at least yellow flag?

I don't understand why this guy is going so high in drafts. I understand the talent, the upside, the skill-set.

 

What I don't understand is why he is going so high when Mack is still there. Do people think that Mack is just going to magically disappear?

Mack is still only 24 years old, is coming off his best season where, had he played the 2 games he missed, he probably would've finished with a 260-1,200-9 line. YPC were a little down, but 4.4 still isn't anything to scoff at, especially when you had other "studs" in the league like Fournette, Connor, LeVeon, David Johnson, David Montgomery, Sony Michel, Melvin Gordon and a huge handful of others finish below him (and some, well below him).

 

I have no doubt in my mind that Jonathan Taylor is the superior back (or will become the superior back), but his ADP of like 35 or 40 just seems ludicrous to me. To me...while Mack hasn't done anything to cement himself as "the guy", he certainly hasn't done anything to lose the job. He doesn't fumble, he had 9 games out of the 14 he played where he totaled 70+ yards on the ground...

 

In my mind, Jonathan Taylor should be going in the ADP 50-75 range, as a guy with immense talent, who could potentially take over as the starter mid-way through the season...

But to me...that's a lot to pay for a guy who may be widely inconsistent in terms of his role for the 1st half of the season.

Whether you want to believe it or not, Mack's not "just going to go away".

 

the aggressive picks are a wager on him being not merely "good", but a perennial Pro Bowler, league-wrecking ball from the get-go kind of talent -- in another word: "transcendent"
I find myself in that camp. I think he's a man amongst boys. Too big, too fast, too athletic, too strong. Factor in a good offensive line? I want some. 
Last night in my one and only league, Taylor went before Nuke, Connor, DJ, Godwin, and Mike Evans. Granted, the guy who took him generally starts drinking before noon, which leads to perpetual low cognitive functioning, but in a weird way, I respected his boldness. As Will Smith once said, "if you want something, go get it!" He probably could have waited another round or two... but if you're convinced this guy is the 2020 league winner? Maybe it's not the craziest thing. Side note: I landed Marlon Mack in round 13. 
 

CEH is a unique case because the offense is so explosive, but fantasy players didn't have an issue using early picks on rookies Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs, or Saquan Barkley. If you believe that Jonathan Taylor is of this elite breed, what makes his case so different? Marlon Mack?

 
 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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17 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

In my mind, Jonathan Taylor should be going in the ADP 50-75 range, as a guy with immense talent, who could potentially take over as the starter mid-way through the season...

 

 

Yeah, I have a hard time paying for JT at his current price. For example, Miles Sanders was going around 50-75 last year with Jordan Howard to contend with. It worked out well and you didn't have to spend a 3rd/4th on him. 

 

I assume Mack is gone after this year so JT is more valuable in keeper leagues, like probably a first round pick in 2021. I'd reach in keepers but not in re-draft.

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I think after this season, Jonathan Taylor will be the guy.

But in the ADP 30-40 range, I'm going with someone who I know is going to produce. I've played the "wait and see game" before, and in my experience, it almost never works...and if it does, it works too late.

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I just think Taylor is immensely talented.  While Mack is a good back, Taylor will be a great one.  Taylor is bigger, faster, stronger, and more elusive.  While I don't expect Mack, to simply disappear.  I do expect Taylor to have 70% of the Colts backfield, by week five.  Taylor wasn't a need, yet the Colts moved up in round 2, to grab him.  I tend to think, that's a mighty strong endorsement.  With the signing of Rivers, the Colts are clearly win now mode.  I cannot see them not utilizing the more talented talented back.  I could be wrong.  Would only be the 4,753rd time.  

Edited by Goatstain3
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2 hours ago, RoseLin23 said:

What tier do you guys rank Taylor? If Mack wasn't there I'd feel much better about him, but now I"m not so sure.

What kind of value do you think he holds right now? I got offered Hopkins and Ertz for him and Gesicki so I was a bit surprised. If Mack stays healthy, I can't see Taylor being anything more than a solid flex/RB2 at best.

I would take that trade on value alone.  Taylor might be a rockstar, but I see it as a shared backfield to start the season.  And there it isn't known if/when he will take over as the bellcow.  I think he's being draft about two rounds too early.

 

Also, Gesicki got beat out at TE on his own team.  https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/09/07/miami-dolphins-depth-chart-what-we-learned-tua-tagovailoa/5741432002/

 

Edit: Apparently, Gesicki was listed as the number 2 tight end most of last year as well since he isn't in on many blocking downs, so disregard the importance of that.

Edited by WEIL3R

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Just now, Goatstain3 said:

I just think Taylor is immensely talented.  While Mack is a good back, Taylor will be a great one.  Taylor is bigger, faster, stronger, and more elusive.  While I don't expect Mack, to simply disappear.  I do expect Taylor to have 70% of the Colts backfield, by week five.  Taylor wasn't a need, yet the Colts moved up in round 2, to grab him.  I tend to think, that's a might strong endorsement.  With the signing of Rivers, the Colts are clearly win now mode.  I cannot see them not utilizing the more talented talented back.  I could be wrong.  Would only be the 4,753rd time.  

 

 

I think that's the best case scenario for owners who drafted Taylor in the 3rd-4th round. Hopefully by Week 5 or Week 6, he will have locked up a 70/30 split between him and Mack..

I just have this feeling...with Jonathan Taylor lurking...Mack isn't going to go away without a fight. It's going to become increasingly frustrating for Taylor owners if Mack produces solid numbers during the 1st couple weeks of the season.

Right now, Taylor owners just have to sit and pray that Mack throws up a complete dud or two in the first couple weeks of the season...cause if he doesn't, this backfield situation could easily turn very murky in terms of consistency.

Now that's not to say that Taylor can't have stand-alone value alongside Mack...but he just might not be the "league-winner" everyone was hoping for.

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1 hour ago, CORTEz said:

I haven't read everyone else's posts...but am I the only one whose holding up a "lightly colored" red flag? or at least yellow flag?

I don't understand why this guy is going so high in drafts. I understand the talent, the upside, the skill-set.

 

What I don't understand is why he is going so high when Mack is still there. Do people think that Mack is just going to magically disappear?

Mack is still only 24 years old, is coming off his best season where, had he played the 2 games he missed, he probably would've finished with a 260-1,200-9 line. YPC were a little down, but 4.4 still isn't anything to scoff at, especially when you had other "studs" in the league like Fournette, Connor, LeVeon, David Johnson, David Montgomery, Sony Michel, Melvin Gordon and a huge handful of others finish below him (and some, well below him).

 

I have no doubt in my mind that Jonathan Taylor is the superior back (or will become the superior back), but his ADP of like 35 or 40 just seems ludicrous to me. To me...while Mack hasn't done anything to cement himself as "the guy", he certainly hasn't done anything to lose the job. He doesn't fumble, he had 9 games out of the 14 he played where he totaled 70+ yards on the ground...

 

In my mind, Jonathan Taylor should be going in the ADP 50-75 range, as a guy with immense talent, who could potentially take over as the starter mid-way through the season...

But to me...that's a lot to pay for a guy who may be widely inconsistent in terms of his role for the 1st half of the season.

Whether you want to believe it or not, Mack's not "just going to go away".

 

Agree.  If you're picking him as your RB2, there's a problem.  RB3 with upside?  Perfectly reasonable.  

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I got Taylor as my RB4 in a dynasty auction league ($25 out of $200 cap), I think it's clear he'll be the guy after this season. The best path forward for him having serious value this year is if Mack gets hurt (he's missed games every season) and JT crushes it, or if they split early on and JT clearly outperforms, IMO.

If he doesn't look materially better than Mack in the first few weeks, I expect it'll be pretty murky all year long.

Edited by trilly

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I think people picked him as an RB1, with the knowledge that they were going to have to wait on him for a while...because he was the superior back to Mack - despite Mack being very good. With a solid O-line, and a good offense with Philip now...they are going to be in games for both to produce while Taylor becomes the better value.

And people didn't want to risk losing that, so they took him earlier based off upside. 

 

But now the FF season is here, and people want to forget he was always going to be a slow producer until he worked his way into taking over. 

 

I picked at the #2 in a team team draft...and at the 2/3 turn, I didn't want to risk not getting him. It sucked, because the WR's there were elite, but I wanted more RB's on my roster, so I picked Barkley, Carson, Taylor. I also had faith that the mid-WR's like Ripley, Metcalf, Woods can step it up and be competitive with the best WR's out there....so better to reach on a couple RB's and hope the upside is there.

 

We'll see if the strategy pays off. It definitely wasn't as nice of a lineup when I picked him in the 5th round in Mocks...lol...but just fell victim to the hypetrain...again....ugh. 🙂

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Mack's 4.4 YPC on this oline is like a 3.9 somewhere else. The idea that JT can't run laps around this kid is crazy. Y'all gonna be so impatient by week 3 that you throw a top 5 talent out the window for peanuts.

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I consider Mack as an average running back (standalone) but above average given the OL.  Mack will want money next year and I'm not sure teams will be paying hand over fist for him or any average RB.

JT is the insurance policy for the Colts.  Drafting him brings value in four ways. 

  1. -They can trade Mack mid season to a SB/Playoff bound team. 

-They have locked in a rookie contract that can yield the same value as Mack did last season (based on his current ADP, I hope so).
-JT has to work his a** off to win the #1 spot on the roster making it super competitive for both, benefiting the team.
-Mack runs like he wants to get injured.  (He's a hard runner)


I believe this is going to be a 50-50 split between the two and they are going to keep in whomever is healthy and better at pass blocking.  I honestly don't see the talent gap between the two though, which many on this thread have eluded to.  Perhaps someone can explain why JT is more talented.

Edited by Tonyromosclavicle
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9 minutes ago, FooserX said:

I think people picked him as an RB1, with the knowledge that they were going to have to wait on him for a while...because he was the superior back to Mack - despite Mack being very good. With a solid O-line, and a good offense with Philip now...they are going to be in games for both to produce while Taylor becomes the better value.

And people didn't want to risk losing that, so they took him earlier based off upside. 

 

But now the FF season is here, and people want to forget he was always going to be a slow producer until he worked his way into taking over. 

 

I picked at the #2 in a team team draft...and at the 2/3 turn, I didn't want to risk not getting him. It sucked, because the WR's there were elite, but I wanted more RB's on my roster, so I picked Barkley, Carson, Taylor. I also had faith that the mid-WR's like Ripley, Metcalf, Woods can step it up and be competitive with the best WR's out there....so better to reach on a couple RB's and hope the upside is there.

 

We'll see if the strategy pays off. It definitely wasn't as nice of a lineup when I picked him in the 5th round in Mocks...lol...but just fell victim to the hypetrain...again....ugh. 🙂

This.  I drafted him based on where I hope he will be come playoff time, not where I expect him to be week 1.  It’s obviously a bit of a calculated risk, but most picks are.  The point has been been made previously in this thread, but the Sanders comp from last year holds true.  Talent rises, just need to give it some time to get the opportunity....

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31 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Mack's 4.4 YPC on this oline is like a 3.9 somewhere else. The idea that JT can't run laps around this kid is crazy. Y'all gonna be so impatient by week 3 that you throw a top 5 talent out the window for peanuts.

 

Wow I was literally about to say this, behind this elite-line 4.4 YPC ain't nothing too crazy. They open a hole & you fall forward it's prolly 3 or 4 yards gained. But all jokes aside, let me just see a game or two of JT in the Pros and I'll know if he's the real deal Holyfield.

Edited by RunCMC
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25 minutes ago, herschel said:

This.  I drafted him based on where I hope he will be come playoff time, not where I expect him to be week 1.  It’s obviously a bit of a calculated risk, but most picks are.  The point has been been made previously in this thread, but the Sanders comp from last year holds true.  Talent rises, just need to give it some time to get the opportunity....

 

Hopefully not because Sanders was kind of useless until Howard went down and his ADP was round 5/6.

FOMO and the scarcity of feature RBs have pushed JT's ADP into round 3.

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30 minutes ago, herschel said:

This.  I drafted him based on where I hope he will be come playoff time, not where I expect him to be week 1.  It’s obviously a bit of a calculated risk, but most picks are.  The point has been been made previously in this thread, but the Sanders comp from last year holds true.  Talent rises, just need to give it some time to get the opportunity....

Except Sanders was more versatile than Taylor; he had a different skill set than Howard, and could be utilized earlier doing those things.  Even then, he didn't break out until Howard got hurt.  On top of that, Sanders was a mid round fantasy pick.

Taylor is the same kind of player as Mack.  He might offer more big play potential than Mack, but he's not a significantly better receiver or anything.

It's looking like a 50/50, hot-hand split.  As a 3rd or 4th round pick, I think it's going to take a serious injury to Mack for Taylor to return value.

That might be worth the gamble. Taylor should definitely be able to put up big numbers if he's featured behind this line.  The thing that scares me off that gamble, the possibility of Taylor being so good that he just takes the job from Mack, is the fumbling issue he had in college. Indy is a contender. They got the old man QB to take them there. If Taylor fumbles, they're not going to be able to trust him with a featured role.

If he were in the 5/6 range, maybe he's worth taking a flyer on. But he's been hyped up to the 2/3/4 range, and that's too expensive for me personally. 

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