LarryDavid

Jonathan Taylor 2020 Outlook

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Phillip loves to pad his stats, so he loves to have scat back types with him in the red zone.  Sproles, Danny Woodhead, Austin Ekeler, those types of guys.

I predict Jonathan Taylor will play so well that the Colts CS goes away from that trend 

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53 minutes ago, MBarbarian said:

 

Hines played all 16 games last year backing up Mack (who had 14 catches on the year) and still only had 52 car for 199 yds (3.8 ypc) and 44 rec for 320 yds.  That's probably what his "heavily involved" line looks like again.

And in the redzone, it's gonna be all Taylor.  Last year, Hines had a grand total of 11 redzone touches, and only 2 rushes inside the 5 yard line. 

It's not apples to apples because Rivers is there now. Hines will put up much better numbers (and be considerably more involved) than last year. 

I mean Hines already has as many TDs as he did all last year. 

Edited by BGDDYKWL

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Do not sell.  There is almost nobody with the type of ceiling that Taylor has.  There are fewer than 12 players total that I would take in trade for Taylor straight up right now.  Will Julio Jones or Joe Mixon finish ahead of Taylor in fantasy points this year?  It's certainly possible, perhaps even likely.  But neither of those players have the insane league-winning upside of Taylor.  And now he's going to get the chance to show what he can do.  

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2 hours ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

Taylor is an RB1 now. What would you even sell for?

Saquon would be an interesting target.

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I drafted JT in the 3rd round not knowing he would be 3rd on the depth chart and now sense that JT has low-end RB0 upside right currently (RB0 is the next level up from RB1)

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The leading rookie in receiving yards after one week is, you guessed it JT. Before the year started had you give me 20 guesses he probably wouldn’t have made the list, but hey remember 10 pages ago when he was a bad pick because he can’t catch, fun times.

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Just traded for this cat, and I am stoked! Top tier OLine, all the dominoes falling in place for him to let his talent be showcased.

 

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On 9/15/2020 at 10:21 PM, csv2209 said:

Just traded for this cat, and I am stoked! Top tier OLine, all the dominoes falling in place for him to let his talent be showcased.

 

 

Who did you give up.

 

I have been offered Mahones and Evans

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1 minute ago, Sivaro said:

 

Who did you give up.

 

I have been offered Mahones and Evans

😳 dang that's a haul! I know they both underperformed in week 1, but two studs for the potential of a league winning back. 

I was set on getting Taylor on my roster and paid big for him in my auction draft. Left the draft feeling like I overpaid, but now it feels like stealing.

To be clear, I would not sell for Evans and Mahomes, but I also already have them both on this roster as well, so it's hard to say. 

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No way would I ever trade JT after reaching 20 spots deep to get him at 2.09.

In addition to being a great asset to your team, he's going to make every click on Fantasycast that much more satisfying. 

 

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2 minutes ago, cookiemonster said:

😳 dang that's a haul! I know they both underperformed in week 1, but two studs for the potential of a league winning back. 

I was set on getting Taylor on my roster and paid big for him in my auction draft. Left the draft feeling like I overpaid, but now it feels like stealing.

To be clear, I would not sell for Evans and Mahomes, but I also already have them both on this roster as well, so it's hard to say. 

 

I am getting offers... Good ones.

But, I drafted JT in the 3rd...I would want Mahones and a WR 1......I know that is steep... But yeah.....I can get a quality QB just watching matchups from waivers....Mahones and Thielan.......maybe

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his price was pretty high due to mack but now since he's injured week 1, yall hit the lotto. 

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11 hours ago, brosephd said:

his price was pretty high due to mack but now since he's injured week 1, yall hit the lotto. 

I did reach for him at 45 in one league.

Have to admit, I'm pretty excited now that he'll be joining The Drake and Mostert in my backfield. 

Feels like a 2 TD game coming up

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10 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

I did reach for him at 45 in one league.

Have to admit, I'm pretty excited now that he'll be joining The Drake and Mostert in my backfield. 

Feels like a 2 TD game coming up

I took him at 29, didn't feel it was a reach at all and it wasnt

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31 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

I took him at 29, didn't feel it was a reach at all and it wasnt

It was. Mack getting hurt doesn't change the analysis of that decision at the time. Taylor was a distant third in touches before Mack went down, and Mack (and Hines) looked good. If Mack doesn't go down with a season ending injury Taylor would've been worthless this year. 

If I took Pollard in the 4th round and Zeke tears his ACL next week that doesn't mean the pick still wasn't a huge reach. It just means I got lucky that it panned out. 

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10 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

I took him at 29, didn't feel it was a reach at all and it wasnt

That's results over process thinking.

Taking him at 29, you have to believe he's so superior to Mack that he turns a timeshare into his job outright, or that he's going to be the passing down back. 

In the 2nd-4th round, you're looking for guys you can rely on for consistent 15ish% of your weekly totals.  For a running back, that's usually gonna take 15-20 touches and good chances for TDs.  And if you're not counting on Taylor getting that early, then you have to be betting he'll start being a top-5 RB by midseason at the latest, and that you'll get enough later picks and waiver pickups right that you can stay in the playoff hunt. 

That said, it's not all that different from betting on someone with health concerns like Gurley or Conner - you're just gambling on surviving early and coming on strong late rather than the other way around.  Yet, if those guys do stay healthy, their role is much more certain. 

Taylor was an extremely high variance pick, maybe the highest in the first 4-5 rounds.  A huge gamble - one you obviously felt good about taking.

But we'll never know if the process (taking Taylor that early) was correct, because we'll never see how Taylor would've performed in the situation that existed at the time of fantasy drafts.  Mack got hurt like a quarter and a half into the season, so the result is now that Taylor was a great pick.

In the end, it's a moot point - Mack is done and Taylor is set up for a big year.  Full steam ahead.

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4 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

It was. Mack getting hurt doesn't change the analysis of that decision at the time. Taylor was a distant third in touches before Mack went down, and Mack (and Hines) looked good. If Mack doesn't go down with a season ending injury Taylor would've been worthless this year. 

If I took Pollard in the 4th round and Zeke tears his ACL next week that doesn't mean the pick still wasn't a huge reach. It just means I got lucky that it panned out. 

Oh so this is a fact? Taylor could have rendered a healthy Mack useless for all we know, why do we need a forensic analysis of whether or not player X was worth pick Y? 

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It seems he was going all over the place depending on the league. I took him at pick 50 and got a massive steal, I believed in the talent and that he could overtake Mack at some point in the season. In another league, someone picked him with pick 20 which was an absurd reach at the time. It worked out for him ok, but he's still not getting a massive steal just cause of how early he took him.

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22 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Oh so this is a fact? Taylor could have rendered a healthy Mack useless for all we know, why do we need a forensic analysis of whether or not player X was worth pick Y? 

Not a fact, but the probability of Taylor being a good choice for where he was picked would've been much, much lower.

Like i said above, it's moot now.  We'll never be able to assess a situation that doesn't happen. 

But Mack tearing his Achilles with 98% of the season still to be played is pure chance, unforeseeable.  At the time of drafting, odds that Taylor would not return value at his price point were greater than the odds that he'd exceed value. 

It was honestly one of the more irrational preseason rankings I've ever seen.  There was really no logic for ranking/drafting Taylor 2-3 rounds higher than other rookies (Akers, Swift, Dobbins, Moss) in almost identical situations.

But neither side of the argument can claim to have been "right" because the circumstances drastically and immediately changed.  If Taylor goes on to finish top 5, would it have been right to draft him in the first round?  If Taylor tears his acl on the first snap sunday, was it wrong to draft him in the 5th round?

There's just no way to answer the question.  Fun to debate though.

Edited by SadFaceHappy
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10 minutes ago, atrium said:

It seems he was going all over the place depending on the league. I took him at pick 50 and got a massive steal, I believed in the talent and that he could overtake Mack at some point in the season. In another league, someone picked him with pick 20 which was an absurd reach at the time. It worked out for him ok, but he's still not getting a massive steal just cause of how early he took him.


 

The question is in redrafts, where would he currently go in drafts? 1st round?

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