Flyman75

Justin Jefferson 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

29 minutes ago, ty5592 said:

20-25 or 25-30. Low end WR2 high end WR3 for me. Run first team and the consistent volume just isn’t there right now. 

They used to be a run first team. Those days are going away a little more each week. They have to throw to have any chance to win, the defense is awful. This is not the same team anymore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

Yeah I'm thinking right around 25, but ups and downs week to week.

Based on one down week?  You really can't count weeks 1 and 2 since he wasn't a starter imo

Eye test + two monster games = We are looking at an Odell like rookie season

And fwiw Odell avg 5 targets and 37 yards his first three games

A good litmus test of this market wise is to try to offer a clear WR2 for him like Boyd.  I'd bet it gets rejected immediately.

I like him around WR 10-15 at worst especially he very clearly has top 3 upside so long as he gets 8 targets a game which is very possible.

For all the talk about Vikings being run first him and Thielen are both top 6 WR largely because no other legitimate target competition unlike the closest duo is Cooper and Lamb who are both top 11 team and on a crazy pass heavy team so far. 

Edited by Magoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Based on one down week?  You really can't count weeks 1 and 2 since he wasn't a starter imo

Eye test + two monster games = We are looking at an Odell like rookie season

And fwiw Odell avg 5 targets and 37 yards his first three games

A good litmus test of this market wise is to try to offer a clear WR2 for him like Boyd.  I'd bet it gets rejected immediately.

I like him around WR 10-15 at worst especially he very clearly has top 3 upside so long as he gets 8 targets a game which is very possible.

For all the talk about Vikings being run first him and Thielen are both top 6 WR largely because no other legitimate target competition unlike the closest duo is Cooper and Lamb who are both top 11 team and on a crazy pass heavy team so far. 

The people that still think this is a run first team aren't reacting to what is happening to the team quickly enough. Cousins pass attempts are trending up in a big way and will continue. The defense was the strength of this team for years. They would like to run the ball all game but they won't be able to anymore. You've seen them begin to grasp what they have to do going forward the last couple games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Benjamin1984 said:

The people that still think this is a run first team aren't reacting to what is happening to the team quickly enough. Cousins pass attempts are trending up in a big way and will continue. The defense was the strength of this team for years. They would like to run the ball all game but they won't be able to anymore. You've seen them begin to grasp what they have to do going forward the last couple games.

And mattison running 10 for 26 yds didnt have anything to do with that? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JacobThunder15 said:

And mattison running 10 for 26 yds didnt have anything to do with that? 

The score of the game had to do with it. They can continue to run the ball all game if they want to and they when Zimmer gets fired in a week or two they'll change that. They have no choice. The identity of the team has shifted.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Benjamin1984 said:

The score of the game had to do with it. They can continue to run the ball all game if they want to and they when Zimmer gets fired in a week or two they'll change that. They have no choice. The identity of the team has shifted.

Are the cowboys any different? Zimmer wont get fired as long as Kirk keeps throwing INTs. Theres been 1 game he hasnt had any takeaways. The bad QB, and the bad defense is limiting the rushing ability for this team. If they werent turning the ball over, they could have a more balanced gameplan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Bish0p said:

 

Please name 29 other receivers you would start over JJ? 30... lmao.  I get you missed out on him, but let's be a little bit reasonable here.

Own him in all 4 leagues. The “I guess you missed him” dig is immature and shows you have no argument to back up why you think he’s a wr1. 
 

Adams, Hopkins, Thomas, Hill, Julio, Metcalf, Ridley, Lockett, AJ Brown, Diggs, Theilen, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Golladay, Cooper, Evans, Godwin

17 guys I would draft over Jefferson in a redraft without hesitation. Add in guys like Lamb, Woods, Scary Terry etc you get into the 20-30 range, which means as high as 20 and as low as 30, not definitely 30. He’s played 6 games and has 3 duds. He’s not scoring 30 every game let’s be a little reasonable here. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's likely to finish 10 - 20 (with 5 - 10 upside) with his monster numbers early on despite not getting as much play time in games 1 and 2. However, he does have some very difficult matchups coming up in GB, Chicago, TB, and Chicago again in his schedule rest of year. I'm expecting teams to double Thielen and then put the shadow corner on Jefferson going forward which will make things interesting.

Edited by harck
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember taking stock of what a few Minnesota beat writers said during camp and wished I had believed even more then I did. They said that this defense was not good and they were going to have to throw to win games. That's where we are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, JacobThunder15 said:

Are the cowboys any different? Zimmer wont get fired as long as Kirk keeps throwing INTs. Theres been 1 game he hasnt had any takeaways. The bad QB, and the bad defense is limiting the rushing ability for this team. If they werent turning the ball over, they could have a more balanced gameplan

What does this have to do with the Cowboys

Edited by Benjamin1984

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Dude is a playmaker. 

Run heavy or not, they're gonna get the ball in his hands. 

This would be a good take if they didnt have a QB with a history of targetting 1 WR one week and then the other another. One will get the upside TDs and the other PPR garbage time if they continue to lose. I think he's a WR2 moving forward, but its sad to see because he has the talent to be very elite

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Magoo said:

Based on one down week?  You really can't count weeks 1 and 2 since he wasn't a starter imo

 

 

Love the player, don't trust the team/QB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Magoo said:

Based on one down week?  You really can't count weeks 1 and 2 since he wasn't a starter imo

Eye test + two monster games = We are looking at an Odell like rookie season

And fwiw Odell avg 5 targets and 37 yards his first three games

A good litmus test of this market wise is to try to offer a clear WR2 for him like Boyd.  I'd bet it gets rejected immediately.

I like him around WR 10-15 at worst especially he very clearly has top 3 upside so long as he gets 8 targets a game which is very possible.

For all the talk about Vikings being run first him and Thielen are both top 6 WR largely because no other legitimate target competition unlike the closest duo is Cooper and Lamb who are both top 11 team and on a crazy pass heavy team so far. 

 

 

P.S. do you really think Cousins will target JJ like Eli targeted OBJ? I don't. I also trust Eli (at that stage) more than Cousins (at this stage).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, ty5592 said:

Own him in all 4 leagues. The “I guess you missed him” dig is immature and shows you have no argument to back up why you think he’s a wr1. 
 

Adams, Hopkins, Thomas, Hill, Julio, Metcalf, Ridley, Lockett, AJ Brown, Diggs, Theilen, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Golladay, Cooper, Evans, Godwin

17 guys I would draft over Jefferson in a redraft without hesitation. Add in guys like Lamb, Woods, Scary Terry etc you get into the 20-30 range, which means as high as 20 and as low as 30, not definitely 30. He’s played 6 games and has 3 duds. He’s not scoring 30 every game let’s be a little reasonable here. 

I have no argument as to why I think he's an WR1? Maybe cuz he's the WR6 on the year, that's my argument lol.  and 3 out of 6 duds is being a little disingenuous.  He barely played the first 2 games... he's produced 3 out of 4 games he's been featured.  I'll see you at the end of the year when he's a top 12 receiver, we can circle back, while you still have JuJu penciled in your lineup. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

People seemed to forget the 3 for 23 in a perceived SMASH spot 

they also seem to forget he didnt start or play much weeks 1-2. so he has 2 boom games, 1 bust/floor game and a solid 15 pt game in his 4 starts.

Edited by colepenhagen
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

they also seem to forget he didnt start or play much weeks 1-2. so he has 2 boom games, 1 bust/floor game and a solid 15 pt game in his 4 starts.

 

12 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

People seemed to forget the 3 for 23 in a perceived SMASH spot 

Outside of a very small handful of WRs this is what it is nowadays. Tyreek Hill just had this same line last night. Calvin Ridley didn't have a stat 2 weeks ago. Teams just spread it around so much nowadays, you have to live with duds from nearly all of them even in smash spots. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's no denying that Cousin's has been awful and has contributed to them being down big in a few of their games. There's no denying that they want to run the ball.

 

I still think there is some chance that if they execute their game plan and limit turn overs on offense, there may be limited opportunity in the passing game. Thats my worry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, cerealntacos said:

There's no denying that Cousin's has been awful and has contributed to them being down big in a few of their games. There's no denying that they want to run the ball.

 

I still think there is some chance that if they execute their game plan and limit turn overs on offense, there may be limited opportunity in the passing game. Thats my worry.

The defense is objectively bad though, whereas before it was the strength of the team. It's hard to imagine them doing what they want to the majority of the time.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This defense did limit Seattle's offense and executed their game plan to perfection for the first half. I'm not saying that counts for much, but I think it still shows those types of games as a possibility for this team. We'll see. I mean, I hope they have to throw 30-40 times a game, they have 2 studs and a stud back - this offense should be able to put up points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

People seemed to forget the 3 for 23 in a perceived SMASH spot 

Trap games and duds always always happen. Dunbar played him very well.  Kirk got skittish after the pick and locked in on Thielen. You can't just say that to presume he can't be a WR1.  Look at Thielen in this year. Crazy TD pace propping up value.  That definitely will regress. Three of the six games he had only 3 catches.  Two of them only 5 targets.  He very nearly could have had 3 duds especially last week (which was also an obvious trap game with Julio returning)

Sure you could say the other games he went bananas and proved his WR1 upside but Jefferson very clearly has that single game upside (maybe higher too).

The only takeaway about Jefferson's low floor is that his upside is reliant on great matchups (Same for everyone). 

But to be clear the Seattle matchup was anything but cake because Dunbar was back.  It's fine if hack analysts keep looking at rankings without regard to injured players returning but that doesn't mean we need to.

 

Edited by Magoo
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Benjamin1984 said:

The score of the game had to do with it. They can continue to run the ball all game if they want to and they when Zimmer gets fired in a week or two they'll change that. They have no choice. The identity of the team has shifted.

Depends on what you mean by identity.  Philosophy will never change so long as Zimmer is there.  Any excuse to lean on the run will be taken so that should always be kept in mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

 

P.S. do you really think Cousins will target JJ like Eli targeted OBJ? I don't. I also trust Eli (at that stage) more than Cousins (at this stage).

Yes 100%. Jefferson may already be one the of the best receivers in the league.  So yea I trust any QB to start targeting the best of the best.  And as terrible as Cousins is at least he isn't Mayfield bad.  So he's got that going for him.  Which is nice.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Benjamin1984 said:

 

Outside of a very small handful of WRs this is what it is nowadays. Tyreek Hill just had this same line last night. Calvin Ridley didn't have a stat 2 weeks ago. Teams just spread it around so much nowadays, you have to live with duds from nearly all of them even in smash spots. 

yep and nuk had a dud as well. i was just about to post that. jj last 4 games looked like ridley lines early in the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...