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Justin Jefferson 2020 Outlook


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5 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

This is truth.  It is human nature that people will not give you the player on whom they spent their 2nd or 3rd rounder for your waiver wire pickup, even if all signs point to your waiver wire pickup outperforming them for ROS.  Sunk cost is indeed a fallacy but is a blind spot for 99% of fantasy managers due to pride and human nature.  Must remember that most humans are not logical they are emotional.

 

Been that way since Moses wore short pants.

Regardless who doesn’t like a waiver wire pickup of the year story.

It’s another dynamic of fantasy most of us enjoy,

Finding those gems, sleepers, breakout players before your league mates do.

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Some numbers, in 2 games since moving into starting spot:

Cousins has dropped back 56 times, JJ has run a route on 51 of them and earned a very large 28% target share and turned it into 11-278-1 all catches were 1st downs too!

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8 hours ago, JAG_challam said:

Exactly the kind of game I wanted to see. No ridiculous outlier like last week, but excellent football. Did it on only 5 looks too. Kid's legit. Having him and Lamb both on my bench makes me wish it was a dynasty league lol

Given his first two games were clunkers I'd like to think of games 3-4 as positive regression. 😏

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Kid is a stud and with Minny's trash D, they will be forced to throw in many games.  I'd say he can easily land in WR2 range, and really there is almost no point in trading him because at best you will probably get a WR2 or RB3 back with less upside than him.  

 

I'd be curious to know how many rookie WRs ever have had 2 100+ yard games in their first 4 career starts..

Edited by SportsBrain
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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Some numbers, in 2 games since moving into starting spot:

Cousins has dropped back 56 times, JJ has run a route on 51 of them and earned a very large 28% target share and turned it into 11-278-1 all catches were 1st downs too!

More gas on the fire....21. 8 ypc... probably half of that is yac. It's unsustainable, as DCs will be willing to concede shorter completions to prevent the deep throws. I would guess by mid season he's going to have some clunkers statistically as he is going to be the focal point of the passing game now.

 

Not so bold prediction.... Just Jeff is going to be the Vikes defacto WR1 before end of season simply because he tilts the defense, something Adam Van Theilen simply can't do. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/4262921/justin-jefferson

 

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[...]

Further, it might be a bold prediction but it is not outside the realm of possibility. The Vikings pass D is terrible, JJ already has 8 catches of 20+ yards and he's playing Seattle and Atlanta in the next two weeks. Who knows what kind of impact or trust he could earn in those two weeks and with an increase in passes and #1 corners on AT it's possible JJ has an AJ Brown-like run. Brown was also on a low-pass team. 

I'm not saying that's a slam dunk by any means but I don't think its so preposterous that my comment deserved to be deleted.

[...]

21 hours ago, mjb said:

WR1 is not feasible, WR2/3 more likely😎

 

20 hours ago, Kilo said:

The kid looks great, he needs more targets

 

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14 minutes ago, brosephd said:

this was like a godsend for teams who are hurting in WR's.

Right? There were probably a lot of us stressing out how we could get an explosive 20+ pt upside type WR with a nice floor...

Trade away valuable RBs? Sketchy decision...

Then JJ came a long, and now even tho my Cardinals suck I feel good about life again lol

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3 minutes ago, BallinOnnaBudget said:

Right? There were probably a lot of us stressing out how we could get an explosive 20+ pt upside type WR with a nice floor...

Trade away valuable RBs? Sketchy decision...

Then JJ came a long, and now even tho my Cardinals suck I feel good about life again lol

 

EXACTLY MY MINDSET LMAO

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He’s on pace for 64/1392/4. I’m happy with him as my WR2. I played him over Gallup and DJ Moore last week as a reference. His upside seems to be as high or higher than those guys right now and his floor so far would be his first game in the league. Don’t know how many TDs we’ll see from him as Dalvin and Thielen seem to dominate red zone looks. But you know JJ is good for the big home run hit and that just makes for an exciting player to own on a team that’s going to have to put up a lot of points to try and win games, especially over the next 4-5 weeks. 

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I've been a Justin Jefferson truther for a while (Vikings homer, what can I say), and I'm not sure if you can rely on him as your number two.

 

I LOVE him as a high end wr3/flex play. I think for the next stretch of 3-4 games, he'll produce. But after that, I think Zimmer will get the young defense in gear and more cohesive as the young corners gain game experience; and then the Vikings will go back to what they want to do; which is continue to make Cook the focal point of their offense.

As for their offensive line, Bradbury is the most improved player on the Vikings, and their bookends have been playing very good football. Their guards...sigh. That said, 2nd round Ezra Cleveland can be plugged in at LG and I think Udoh can plug in at RG to make the line better; so Cousins should continue to get time.

 

If anyone owns JJ in dynasty, be giddy. This dude is going to be awesome next year.

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I love JJ, what a stud. 

However he's a rookie with two solid games now on tape. Defenses will start keying on him and he's likely to hit a rough patch. 

I feel like he's the 2020 Scary Terry McLaurin who I also owned. Terry as my WR3 helped get me to the playoffs. However, these rookie guys aren't necessarily Set and Forgets. Terry had some matchups where I benched him. As JJ keeps growing, there will undoubtably be some CB1s that shadow him all day and handoff Thielen to the CB2. 

So as much as I love the kid, I wouldn't be confident with him as my WR2. I think on a championship team he's best fit is as a WR3/4 that can help out with injuries/byes/matchups.

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1 hour ago, BallinOnnaBudget said:

I love JJ, what a stud. 

However he's a rookie with two solid games now on tape. Defenses will start keying on him and he's likely to hit a rough patch. 

I feel like he's the 2020 Scary Terry McLaurin who I also owned. Terry as my WR3 helped get me to the playoffs. However, these rookie guys aren't necessarily Set and Forgets. Terry had some matchups where I benched him. As JJ keeps growing, there will undoubtably be some CB1s that shadow him all day and handoff Thielen to the CB2. 

So as much as I love the kid, I wouldn't be confident with him as my WR2. I think on a championship team he's best fit is as a WR3/4 that can help out with injuries/byes/matchups.

 

How many guys are really set and forget? Especially when they have bad matchups/elite CBs on them, almost any WR in the NFL can have a down game.  With that said he has the talent I think to easily be a top 25 WR going forward.  Thielen is a VERY good WR who will require serious attention as long as he is on the field, and they have Cook who also needs to be constantly worried about. Also, after putting up 175 yards and torching a defense the week before, you can bet  I don't see any way he's a WR4, that's pushing it and WR3 I'd say is his floor at this point.  This all depends on league size(I'm going off 12 team league) cause of course in 8-10 team leagues everybody has stacked players.  But saying he is a injury/bye/matchup only guy, don't think that's accurate at all in any kind of deep league. 

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