Strike Three

J.K. Dobbins 2020 Outlook

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I’m not buying the crowded backfield argument and I’m not banking on a healthy Mark Ingram.  League winner if Ingram gets hurt.  Dynasty treasure, top 2 or 3 option.  They will be ahead in many games and want to protect their stud qb.  PFF #2 offensive line in ‘19.

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RIP Gus Edwards Hype Train 2018 - 2020.

Seriously I think they will struggle to keep more than 3 backs on game days.

Ingram will still be the guy with his pass-blocking ability. But otherwise Dobbins is shaping up to be everything we wanted Justice Hill to be last year.

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Assuming health for everyone, I see a shared backfield this year with Dobbins taking over next year forward.  Ingram is over 30 and while he doesn't have a ton of tread on the tires, RBs fall off a cliff after 30 so I can see one more decent year from Ingram this year before they utilize Dobbins as the horse next year.  Priority pick in dynasty.

For re-draft, I would gladly have him as my RB3 because I think he'll be FLEX worthy some weeks with a healthy Ingram, and has the ability to be a monster if Ingram goes down.  

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3 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Assuming health for everyone, I see a shared backfield this year with Dobbins taking over next year forward.  Ingram is over 30 and while he doesn't have a ton of tread on the tires, RBs fall off a cliff after 30 so I can see one more decent year from Ingram this year before they utilize Dobbins as the horse next year.  Priority pick in dynasty.

For re-draft, I would gladly have him as my RB3 because I think he'll be FLEX worthy some weeks with a healthy Ingram, and has the ability to be a monster if Ingram goes down.  


Ingram still has two yrs left on his deal. Unless Baltimore trades or cuts him after this season, Dobbins will have to wait until 2022 to take over. And I’m not convinced Dobbins is a better RB than Ingram. 

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45 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Ingram still has two yrs left on his deal. Unless Baltimore trades or cuts him after this season, Dobbins will have to wait until 2022 to take over. And I’m not convinced Dobbins is a better RB than Ingram. 

Technically yes...but not really.   He can be cut after the 2020 season for only 1.3M dead cap.

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Still reeling over the Steelers passing on Dobbins, just unreal...I feel we really couldve built nicely around him going forward. Gotta say Ravens have done amazing with the team they've been building the last few years

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14 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Technically yes...but not really.   He can be cut after the 2020 season for only 1.3M dead cap.


Well that’s why I said “unless Baltimore trades or cuts him after this season.” Lol. :) 

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4 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Assuming health for everyone, I see a shared backfield this year with Dobbins taking over next year forward.  Ingram is over 30 and while he doesn't have a ton of tread on the tires, RBs fall off a cliff after 30 so I can see one more decent year from Ingram this year before they utilize Dobbins as the horse next year.  Priority pick in dynasty.

For re-draft, I would gladly have him as my RB3 because I think he'll be FLEX worthy some weeks with a healthy Ingram, and has the ability to be a monster if Ingram goes down.  

 

This is about where I'm at.  There's no reason to just cast Ingram aside- they'll split and they'll get solid miles out of a still useful Ingram.  Let the vet go after this year and use the cheap labor instead.  

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18 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Well that’s why I said “unless Baltimore trades or cuts him after this season.” Lol. :) 

The point was it is unlikely that the Ravens wait until 2022 to let their young RB handle the load. That backfield will be his in 2021, if not earlier.

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On 4/25/2020 at 6:51 AM, DeliciousGravy said:

RIP Gus Edwards Hype Train 2018 - 2020.

Seriously I think they will struggle to keep more than 3 backs on game days.

Ingram will still be the guy with his pass-blocking ability. But otherwise Dobbins is shaping up to be everything we wanted Justice Hill to be last year.

There was a Gus Edwards hype train?

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Gus had a nickname and everything.

As for Dobbins, this is probably a worst-case scenario for his short term outlook, but could quite possibly be a best-case scenario for 2021 and beyond.

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53 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

There was a Gus Edwards hype train?

I think it was more of a bus.

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3 hours ago, devaster said:

The point was it is unlikely that the Ravens wait until 2022 to let their young RB handle the load. That backfield will be his in 2021, if not earlier.


It might be his in 2021 but not sooner, imo. I’m not convinced it’ll be his in 2021 either just yet. And no, I don’t any shares of Ingram, lol. :) 

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6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

It might be his in 2021 but not sooner, imo.

I assume the implicit disclaimer in that is "unless injuries, obviously".

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6 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I assume the implicit disclaimer in that is "unless injuries, obviously".


Yes. 

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8 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Gus had a nickname and everything.

As for Dobbins, this is probably a worst-case scenario for his short term outlook, but could quite possibly be a best-case scenario for 2021 and beyond.

I love these forums.  2nd best offensive line, #1 rushing team, will be ahead in most games, one of the best head coaches the game, and 2nd round draft capital.  Yet, it’s probably a worst case scenario landing in Baltimore.  God bless you!  

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8 minutes ago, Strike Three said:

I love these forums.  2nd best offensive line, #1 rushing team, will be ahead in most games, one of the best head coaches the game, and 2nd round draft capital.  Yet, it’s probably a worst case scenario landing in Baltimore.  God bless you!  

 

Look at it this way. You have 2 bars you can go into:
- one has some very beautiful women. However, there's 3 guys for every woman in there. 
- one has some average women, but there's no guy in sight.
Which one do you choose? 

The moral of the story is, I guess: don't go drinking in Baltimore.

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5 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Look at it this way. You have 2 bars you can go into:
- one has some very beautiful women. However, there's 3 guys for every woman in there. 
- one has some average women, but there's no guy in sight.
Which one do you choose? 

The moral of the story is, I guess: don't go drinking in Baltimore.

Fair, but JK Dobbins against Clemson looked like the kind of guy who could go into the first bar and not go home alone.

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10 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

There was a Gus Edwards hype train?

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I will eventually do another 0RB article like I tried to do last year but if you go that route, Dobbins is the guy I want at the front of the bus.

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2 hours ago, Strike Three said:

I love these forums.  2nd best offensive line, #1 rushing team, will be ahead in most games, one of the best head coaches the game, and 2nd round draft capital.  Yet, it’s probably a worst case scenario landing in Baltimore.  God bless you!  

Worst case scenario for short term (2020 season) because there is an established starter ahead of him.  If Dobbins had gone to Miami or Tampa or LAR, he would likely have started right away and been a better bet for immediate production.

If the Jets had taken Dobbins, it still would have been better in the short term because then I think the Jets would probably cut Bell and eat his bloated salary.

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They even spent a high pick on Justice Hill. Murky backfield for the next 2 years. Dobbins should be the number 1 in this offense and he very well could be, but there are a lot of touches. I do expect Lamar to see a reduction by 50 rush attempts.

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The number one, without any doubt, is Mark Ingram.

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Forgot Yanda retired until I read the DJ Fluker blurb.

Slight damper on this running game.  Probably not enough to kill enthusiasm for Ingram/Dobbins given the rest of the situation, but something to consider.

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1 minute ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The number one, without any doubt, is Mark Ingram.

 

He was my #2 RB behind CEH but man what a bad landing spot for immediate fantasy success.

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I mean Gus Edwards still got 133 carries last year.  IMO he was the CLEAR back-up to Ingram.  Someone like Dobbins who they spent significant draft capital on, I could see earning a bigger piece than Gus last year.  Maybe 150-160 carries?  Especially if Lamar runs a bit less - 160-175 carries?  Ingram can be cut after this season and save the team $5mm in cap space, so I imagine Dobbins is the legacy plan for next season to replace a will be 31 year old RB.  For re-draft, I'm not spending high capital on Dobbins.  But for dynasty, this guy could make an argument for #1 pick.

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