The G Man

D'Andre Swift 2020 Outlook

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On 10/19/2020 at 8:33 AM, JJ1223 said:

Yesterday was an easy pick for a breakout game.  The real question is will he run with it and take over, or will we go back to the same old same old fantasy wasteland backfield.

Sure it was, who didn't have him slated for 26 fantasy points?

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16 minutes ago, cgu112 said:


I just don't get this mentality. He had one big week so nobody is giving you a lot for him. And he just came out of a bye week with a huge increase in usage (touches). He’s a super talented highly drafted rookie rb.  
 

Why not wait a few weeks and see if his usage continues to trend up?   If not then you can still play him as a flex.  If it does, then he could be a weekly stud.  Who could you possibly trade him for that offers anywhere close to his level of relative safety with monstrous upside? 

You're not even entering the negotiating room with 99% of fantasy owners, you hit the nail on the head. Wait, don't bother now.

Edited by miasma16

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15 minutes ago, cgu112 said:

I just don't get this mentality. He had one big week so nobody is giving you a lot for him. And he just came out of a bye week with a huge increase in usage (touches). He’s a super talented highly drafted rookie rb.  
 

Why not wait a few weeks and see if his usage continues to trend up?   If not then you can still play him as a flex.  If it does, then he could be a weekly stud.  Who could you possibly trade him for that offers anywhere close to his level of relative safety with monstrous upside? 

Precisely. This is one of those frequent situations where the guy's upside is far greater than what anyone would give up. So you really have to hold for the short term. If he continues doing well then you have a sell window, but still might not be worth it. 

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1 minute ago, owenmills said:

Precisely. This is one of those frequent situations where the guy's upside is far greater than what anyone would give up. So you really have to hold for the short term. If he continues doing well then you have a sell window, but still might not be worth it. 

Exactly !  Right now as a Swift owner I do not know if I have a league winner or a spotty flex filler ?    I would kick myself if try and sell high and this guy becomes a top 5 back after the bye.   He has the perfect skill set for being PPR gold !   Wait a few weeks

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My biggest takeaway was with his first rushing TD on Sunday he got the entire goal line series. I would strongly recommend holding. He already has all the passing down snaps on lock.

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1 hour ago, cgu112 said:


I just don't get this mentality. He had one big week so nobody is giving you a lot for him. And he just came out of a bye week with a huge increase in usage (touches). He’s a super talented highly drafted rookie rb.  
 

Why not wait a few weeks and see if his usage continues to trend up?   If not then you can still play him as a flex.  If it does, then he could be a weekly stud.  Who could you possibly trade him for that offers anywhere close to his level of relative safety with monstrous upside? 

I agree with most of what you had to say here and Swift was the rookie RB I was targeting so I have a ton of shares and I'm holding firm. I disagree that you can't sell for a nice profit though. The buzz is definitely there to sell and you could argue now is the time. I'm just a big believer so I want to see where this goes. [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
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21 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Sure it was, who didn't have him slated for 26 fantasy points?

Jamey Eisenberg of CBS had him down for 150 yards and a TD...I'd assume he thought he would score 26 fantasy points lol

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Trying to figure out what to do with him this weekend.... probably his best matchup of the year, and coming off the big game.  Seems like a trap game to me [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
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6 minutes ago, TeeGee60 said:

Trying to figure out what to do with him this weekend.... probably his best matchup of the year, and coming off the big game.  Seems like a trap game to me [...]

 

I'm gonna flex him. Last week's performance was impressive enough that he should get more work in this offense. And, if not, he probably still has a relatively safe floor.

Love this player. Tremendous upside down the road and decent enough security for now.

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6 minutes ago, TeeGee60 said:

Trying to figure out what to do with him this weekend.... probably his best matchup of the year, and coming off the big game.  Seems like a trap game to me [...]


I look at it like this: After last weeks performance, he is a good bet to split carries with AP. He already has all the pass game work on lock. If the Lions lead in this game, he splits carries. If the Falcons lead, he should be the main guy and rack up several receptions against this “defense.” I think he is a relatively safe play this week. 

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From the Detroit Free Press:

 

Quote

Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell explained how snaps are divided among Swift and fellow running backs Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson.

“Well, we go in with a plan and then as the game goes along, you have to have a feel for the game,” Bevell said in a conference call with reporters. “So Adrian goes in with the first bit of carries, but everybody has kind of a specific role or even specific plays.

“I’ll even call the personnel with a guy’s number on it and send that specific person in the game because that’s a play that we want that individual to get. So that’s kind of how we’re handling it with the running backs.”

Bevell also went further and outlined some of the roles in more detail, explaining that (Peterson has the past three games; Johnson started the first two).

“So Adrian gets the start and then from there we kind of have numbers all over the game plan for specific plays and it could be guys going in and out,” he said. “Also, it could be I guess, situational plays are probably the best way to describe it. You know, Kerryon is kind of our third-down guy. He’s our third-down runner. He’s our third-down protection back.

 

This sounds dumb and isn't that promising.  We have a guy we drafted high who is clearly better than the other two.  Why not design plays for you best guy instead of feeding the inferior players.  I really hope this quote is from earlier in the season (the article was from today).  I feel badly for Swift that he got drafted by this team. 

I'm still flexing him over Gibson, but I am not that confident.

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I don’t know, I feel like it all hinges on how they use swift.  If they just run Peterson all day... and they lose, I feel like Patricia is going to get pressure from front office.  The lions are bad, but they are NOT the jets

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Will be Kamara to Peterson’s Ingram role ROS..

 

Enjoy the ride to a chip..

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19 hours ago, cgu112 said:


I just don't get this mentality. He had one big week so nobody is giving you a lot for him. And he just came out of a bye week with a huge increase in usage (touches). He’s a super talented highly drafted rookie rb.  
 

Why not wait a few weeks and see if his usage continues to trend up?   If not then you can still play him as a flex.  If it does, then he could be a weekly stud.  Who could you possibly trade him for that offers anywhere close to his level of relative safety with monstrous upside? 

I meant for the offer of Chris Godwin.

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11 hours ago, BIGFATPANDA said:

Will be Kamara to Peterson’s Ingram role ROS..

 

Enjoy the ride to a chip..

spacer.png

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I’m not starting this week unless i have to, but I believe that the usage will be there by the fantasy playoffs. Who knows whether it will happen but this is the kind of situation where you can get a league winner (rookie RB, early-season usage concerns, clearly the best talent, etc.) That being said, every RB on an NFL roster gets compared to Kamara at least once a season on the rotoworld forums

Edited by ilikepieman
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On 10/21/2020 at 6:40 PM, TeeGee60 said:

I don’t know, I feel like it all hinges on how they use swift.  If they just run Peterson all day... and they lose, I feel like Patricia is going to get pressure from front office.  The lions are bad, but they are NOT the jets

We aren't THAT bad....defense is though. offense is fine. personnel wise anyway

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On 10/21/2020 at 7:06 PM, fbi314159 said:

From the Detroit Free Press:

 

 

This sounds dumb and isn't that promising.  We have a guy we drafted high who is clearly better than the other two.  Why not design plays for you best guy instead of feeding the inferior players.  I really hope this quote is from earlier in the season (the article was from today).  I feel badly for Swift that he got drafted by this team. 

I'm still flexing him over Gibson, but I am not that confident.

 

Do you feel bad for Gibson? Akers? and all the other rookie RBs not named Taylor who haven't been named starters yet? t's not that outrageous to think a rookie RB wouldn't be given full time carries in his first season? I'm not arguing for or against it, but it's not like AP has been completely ineffective. And we're also talking about a team that has a reputation of not featuring a single RB. How many years were we all waiting for Kerryon Johnson to be "that guy"?

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7 hours ago, cdd10 said:

We aren't THAT bad....defense is though. offense is fine. personnel wise anyway

I was talking about coaches decision making

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7 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Wish it was Schefter reporting this

Agreed. But I'm just going to go ahead and 💪. Gotta take chances sometimes.

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