The G Man

Brandon Aiyuk 2020 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, BeastOfTheLeast said:

 

 

Here's a tip for you....just join the crowd buddy. Hype trains are fun! Lots of folks share the same outlook that you posted it but maybe just let it be and let folks have hope? Don't need folks getting angry over fantasy football takes lmao

 

I added similar analysis that multiple folks on this page have posted but I alone got targeted. i see how it goes here. Eff it Full.Steam.Ahead. lmao

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He's another guy where if you own him you hold him imo. There comes a point where you don't need to chase players on the WW anymore. He has everything I look for from a WR wire add in a 12-team league. Talent - check. Upside - check. Offense that uses him - check. Why bother imo. He has a good matchup this week v MIA BTW.

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17 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

He's another guy where if you own him you hold him imo. There comes a point where you don't need to chase players on the WW anymore. He has everything I look for from a WR wire add in a 12-team league. Talent - check. Upside - check. Offense that uses him - check. Why bother imo. He has a good matchup this week v MIA BTW.

Exactly. I'm not starting him this week or anything, but if you picked him up and watched him last week how can you possibly be frustrated?? He has everything you look for in a high upside stash. At a certain point in the season you need to say "enough is enough", and believe in a player enough to hold them. At least for now. 

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Sanu is gone now too.  I think he is startable every week.

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9 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

Sanu is gone now too.  I think he is startable every week.

I'm not sure Id go that far just yet (I want to see how this offense looks with all the pieces) - but I'll be "forced" to start him this week and this is the type of guy I'd be looking for anyway in a good matchup.

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1 hour ago, jimithing11 said:


lol this is such a lazy argument. SF supported Kittle, Deebo, Sanders, Coleman and Mostert last year.

 

Explain to me how this year is different? Aiyuk is more explosive playmaker than Sanders. 

 

SF didn't really "support" Deebo & Sanders.  

Here's Sanders' game log when moving to the 49'ers:

 

 

 

Seattle game: 3 rec-25 yds-0 TD (screwed up copy-paste because I am a moron)

 

  Rec Targets Yards YPC TD

 

 

 

 

 

           

 

 

Sat 12/21

vsLARLAR 3 6 61 20.3 0                    
Sun 12/15 vsATLATL 2 4 9 4.5 0                    
Sun 12/8 @NONO 7 9 157 22.4 1                   0
Sun 12/1 @BALBAL 4 6 41 10.3 0                    
Sun 11/24 vsGBGB 1 1 15 15.0 0                    
Sun 11/17 vsARIARI 3 5 33 11.0 0                    
Mon 11/11 vsSEASEA 2 4 24 12.0 0                    
Thu 10/31 @ARIARI 7 9 112 16.0 1                    
Sun 10/27 vsCARCAR 4 5 25 6.3 1 13

- Sanders had 25 or fewer receiving yards in 5 out of 10 games as the WR2 for the 49'ers.  

-Sanders only eclipsed 50 yards receiving in 3 out of 10 games 

- Per game, Sanders averaged 3.6 receptions for 50.2 yards, and these totals were mostly buoyed by two huge games, including a 48-46 shootout with the Saints.  

- While I Aiyuk is certainly more dynamic than Sanders, and will also have some big players in the run game, he is likely going to be extremely boom-bust.  Just as Sanders was.  

Call it laziness if you want, but I am skeptical of the 49'ers being able to make their 2nd WR anything more than a bye-week fill in, assuming Kittle + Deebo stay healthy.  

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Aiyuk may be better than Deebo.  If I had to guess, Aiyuk may be more viable every week as the team seems to be manufacturing touches for him even when Deebo is on the field.

As long as their best rb is out, I won't be benching Aiyuk.

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46 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

SF didn't really "support" Deebo & Sanders.  

Here's Sanders' game log when moving to the 49'ers:

 

 

 

Seattle game: 3 rec-25 yds-0 TD (screwed up copy-paste because I am a moron)

 

  Rec Targets Yards YPC TD

 

 

 

 

 

           

 

 

Sat 12/21

vsLARLAR 3 6 61 20.3 0                    
Sun 12/15 vsATLATL 2 4 9 4.5 0                    
Sun 12/8 @NONO 7 9 157 22.4 1                   0
Sun 12/1 @BALBAL 4 6 41 10.3 0                    
Sun 11/24 vsGBGB 1 1 15 15.0 0                    
Sun 11/17 vsARIARI 3 5 33 11.0 0                    
Mon 11/11 vsSEASEA 2 4 24 12.0 0                    
Thu 10/31 @ARIARI 7 9 112 16.0 1                    
Sun 10/27 vsCARCAR 4 5 25 6.3 1 13

- Sanders had 25 or fewer receiving yards in 5 out of 10 games as the WR2 for the 49'ers.  

-Sanders only eclipsed 50 yards receiving in 3 out of 10 games 

- Per game, Sanders averaged 3.6 receptions for 50.2 yards, and these totals were mostly buoyed by two huge games, including a 48-46 shootout with the Saints.  

- While I Aiyuk is certainly more dynamic than Sanders, and will also have some big players in the run game, he is likely going to be extremely boom-bust.  Just as Sanders was.  

Call it laziness if you want, but I am skeptical of the 49'ers being able to make their 2nd WR anything more than a bye-week fill in, assuming Kittle + Deebo stay healthy.  

The lazy part is assuming it will be Samuel and not Aiyuk. That could end up being the case, but I just don't understand why people are so attached to Deebo. It's wild the way people just parrot the same line about not being enough mouth's to feed with Kittle and Deebo. Samuel had a nice rookie year but he's established nothing and Aiyuk looks like the possible better prospect in a vacuum. 

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1 hour ago, Sivaro said:

Aiyuk may be better than Deebo.  If I had to guess, Aiyuk may be more viable every week as the team seems to be manufacturing touches for him even when Deebo is on the field.

As long as their best rb is out, I won't be benching Aiyuk.

 

1 hour ago, Jetdog16 said:

The lazy part is assuming it will be Samuel and not Aiyuk. That could end up being the case, but I just don't understand why people are so attached to Deebo. It's wild the way people just parrot the same line about not being enough mouth's to feed with Kittle and Deebo. Samuel had a nice rookie year but he's established nothing and Aiyuk looks like the possible better prospect in a vacuum. 

Deebo and Aiyuk are both around 6' tall and run a 4.5 40yd dash. Deebo is slightly bigger (has 15 pounds on Aiyuk). On paper, they are pretty similar, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. 

 

My guess is Aiyuk has earned himself more plays and until Deebo proves he can perform when called on, I don't see the 9ers just giving looks back to Deebo. He will have some involvement, but I would be surprised if Aiyuk doesn't receive a larger share of targets until given another reason not to.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

The lazy part is assuming it will be Samuel and not Aiyuk. That could end up being the case, but I just don't understand why people are so attached to Deebo. It's wild the way people just parrot the same line about not being enough mouth's to feed with Kittle and Deebo. Samuel had a nice rookie year but he's established nothing and Aiyuk looks like the possible better prospect in a vacuum. 

 

By default hasn't deebo established more than aiyuk has? How is that lazy? They have seen more from deebo and so have the coaches so there is a valid basis for folks to hold on to that. Here are the games for Aiyuk so far:

9/20 nyj: 2 rec 21 yrds

9/27 nyg: 8 rec 70 yrds, 3rush 31yrds, 1TD

10/4 Phi: 2 rec 18 yrds, 1rush 38yrds, 1TD

Against the jets mostert, McKinnon and Reed were there

Against the giants he had his blowup game with Reed hurt and mostert out and Mullins slinging it 

Against the eagles kittle and Deebo were back and McKinnon was involved in the passing game. 

And fwiw those stats of last year do add to the "can't support 2wrs with everyone around" point let's not just gloss over that or look past his usage going over these games. Deebo isn't back to normal but it looks like the coaches intend to get him back to that point and make him more of a focal point than aiyuk. We'll see how his foot holds up

 

 

Edited by BeastOfTheLeast

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9 minutes ago, Gootz said:

 

Deebo and Aiyuk are both around 6' tall and run a 4.5 40yd dash. Deebo is slightly bigger (has 15 pounds on Aiyuk). On paper, they are pretty similar, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. 

 

My guess is Aiyuk has earned himself more plays and until Deebo proves he can perform when called on, I don't see the 9ers just giving looks back to Deebo. He will have some involvement, but I would be surprised if Aiyuk doesn't receive a larger share of targets until given another reason not to.

No offense, but just comparing their heights and weights isn't contributing anything to the discussion. Going back to college, Samuel earned playing time from Day 1 which is impressive. However, Aiyuk put together the best college season of either of them when he went for 1200 and 8 TD's in his 2019 season. Samuel topped out at 882 receiving yards in a season. I'm not taking any definitive sides. I'm saying Aiyuk may in fact be the better prospect of the two, he certainly showed a higher ceiling in college. 

4 minutes ago, BeastOfTheLeast said:

 

By default hasn't deebo established more than aiyuk has? How is that lazy? They have seen more from deebo and so have the coaches so there is a valid basis for folks to hold on to that. Here are the games for Aiyuk so far:

9/20 nyj: 2 rec 21 yrds

9/27 nyg: 8 rec 70 yrds, 3rush 31yrds, 1TD

10/4 Phi: 2 rec 18 yrds, 1rush 38yrds, 1TD

Against the jets mostert, McKinnon and Reed were there

Against the giants he had his blowup game with Reed hurt and mostert out and Mullins slinging it 

Against the eagles kittle and Deebo were back and McKinnon was involved in the passing game. 

And fwiw those stats of last year do add to the "can't support 2wrs with everyone around" point let's not just gloss over that or look past his usage going over these games. Deebo isn't back to normal but it looks like the coaches intend to get him back to that point and make him more of a focal point than aiyuk. We'll see how his foot holds up

 

 

Yes, Deebo Samuel has established more so far. However, it's not as if he's some veteran with proven stud production history. He had a nice rookie year. What did 49er's do? Turn around and use a 1st round pick on another WR. I like Deebo's game. However, if you're just assuming he is going to be the No.1 Wide Receiver you're playing fantasy football wrong. It would not be shocking in the slightest to see Aiyuk outscore him ROS. I don't have a crystal ball. 

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4 hours ago, Guwop said:

 

I added similar analysis that multiple folks on this page have posted but I alone got targeted. i see how it goes here. Eff it Full.Steam.Ahead. lmao

I was being cranky.  Apologies. 

I do think it's lazy to assume SF can't support both Deebo and Aiyuk, but it's a possibility.  I could see them each making the other less consistent, but I think they can both thrive.

FWIW, I think McKinnon winds up the odd man out most weeks.  It seems clear to me that he's the least talented of the bunch.

They'll manufacture touches for both Aiyuk and Deebo.  And, as much as I love Deebo and have him on 3 teams (vs 1 with Aiyuk), I wouldn't at all be surprised if he reinjures his foot.  As far as the comparison to Sanders with Deebo, I see two significant differences: 1) defense isn't as dominant this year, and 2) Aiyuk is more versatile than Sanders, so more ways to get him involved.  And it's possible that Aiyuk and Deebo are both just flat out better than Sanders.

We'll have to see how it shakes out.  I might flex him this week, but don't plan on doing much more with him than holding him as depth/bye-week-filler/lotto ticket.

As far as comparison to Higgins and Shenault: it's a floor/ceiling flip vs Shenault, with Aiyuk looking like a higher ceiling with more volatility.  Higgins is probably the best bet, simply because Cincy is going to throw it a bunch, though there's the possibility that AJ Green remembers how to play and sucks up more targets going forward.

Aiyuk had the move of the year so far when he leaped into the endzone.  I'm a believer that you always get a piece of a guy who shows that kind of ability to see what develops.

Wouldn't be surprised if he never ends up doing much this year, but neither would it surprise me to see him turn into a Deebo/AJ Brown type run.

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Posted (edited)
On 10/7/2020 at 12:58 AM, Jetdog16 said:

 

No offense, but just comparing their heights and weights isn't contributing anything to the discussion. Going back to college, Samuel earned playing time from Day 1 which is impressive. However, Aiyuk put together the best college season of either of them when he went for 1200 and 8 TD's in his 2019 season. Samuel topped out at 882 receiving yards in a season. I'm not taking any definitive sides. I'm saying Aiyuk may in fact be the better prospect of the two, he certainly showed a higher ceiling in college. 

Yes, Deebo Samuel has established more so far. However, it's not as if he's some veteran with proven stud production history. He had a nice rookie year. What did 49er's do? Turn around and use a 1st round pick on another WR. I like Deebo's game. However, if you're just assuming he is going to be the No.1 Wide Receiver you're playing fantasy football wrong. It would not be shocking in the slightest to see Aiyuk outscore him ROS. I don't have a crystal ball. 

The point of the size and speed comparison was to point out that neither of them has a distinct advantage when it comes to their physical attributes. It boils down more to their mental capabilities. Who wants it more, who has a bigger heart and desire to produce, etc...

 

Just because Aiyuk had a more successful college career doesn't always translate into professional success.

[...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed personal attack

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3 catches for 44 yards on 6 targets. Behind Kittle and Samuel in targets who both had 8 but not by much.

 

Not sure he's worth a hold. Don't think I'll ever feel good about starting him.

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8 minutes ago, bangarrang said:

3 catches for 44 yards on 6 targets. Behind Kittle and Samuel in targets who both had 8 but not by much.

 

Not sure he's worth a hold. Don't think I'll ever feel good about starting him.

outscored Deebo also. I think he has value and actually not against starting him this weekend.

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18 minutes ago, bangarrang said:

3 catches for 44 yards on 6 targets. Behind Kittle and Samuel in targets who both had 8 but not by much.

 

Not sure he's worth a hold. Don't think I'll ever feel good about starting him.

What else are you looking for in a hold? Aiyuk played 97 percent of the snaps and led the team in receiving yards. Not saying he's guaranteed to break out or anything, but can't imagine dropping him right now for the dog food available on most waiver wires.

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19 minutes ago, kdpat15 said:

outscored Deebo also. I think he has value and actually not against starting him this weekend.

 

I wasn't so much saying Deebo is superior, more commenting on target share. The Rams have only allowed 1 TD to opposing WRs this year and who knows what QB the 49ers will have this week. Could be good Jimmy, hobbled Jimmy, or CJ Beathard. I'm not opposed to holding Aiyuk and I have him myself and haven't dropped yet, but he won't sniff my lineup this week.

 

8 minutes ago, Jetdog16 said:

What else are you looking for in a hold? Aiyuk played 97 percent of the snaps and led the team in receiving yards. Not saying he's guaranteed to break out or anything, but can't imagine dropping him right now for the dog food available on most waiver wires.

 

I'm probably going to hold for now, but if I had bye week troubles or needed fillers for injury he's probably one of the first to go for me.

Edited by bangarrang
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2 minutes ago, bangarrang said:

 

I wasn't so much saying Deebo is superior, more commenting on target share.

 

The Rams have only allowed 1 TD to opposing WRs this year and who knows what QB the 49ers will have this week. Could be good Jimmy, hobbled Jimmy, or CJ Beathard. I'm not opposed to holding Aiyuk and I have him myself and haven't dropped yet, but he won't sniff my lineup this week.

So don't start him 🤷‍♂️ 

That's what benches are for. Just cause a dude isn't consistent enough to start doesn't mean you just throw the baby out with the bath water. Hold him and watch him grow. Or cut bait once it's clear that Aiyuk won't produce this season. I don't think we're anywhere clear to that point yet. All he's done so far is flash his potential and earn lots and lots o' playing time. 

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7 minutes ago, bangarrang said:

 

I wasn't so much saying Deebo is superior, more commenting on target share. The Rams have only allowed 1 TD to opposing WRs this year and who knows what QB the 49ers will have this week. Could be good Jimmy, hobbled Jimmy, or CJ Beathard. I'm not opposed to holding Aiyuk and I have him myself and haven't dropped yet, but he won't sniff my lineup this week.

 

 

I'm probably going to hold for now, but if I had bye week troubles or needed fillers for injury he's probably one of the first to go for me.

I like him this week if Jalen is on Deebo, think it will open up some short slants and screens for Aiyuk as Shanahan will get the ball out the QB's hand quickly

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The talent is there. The opportunity is however mediocre. Then the situation now seems to be also mediocre to bad for fantasy purposes.

I thought there was extreme upside here, but I'm not sure if I prefer him or Higgins ROS. Seems like just a stash and you can't start him, but can't fault anyone for cutting bait in a 12 team shallow league.

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2 hours ago, Jordan Coppington said:


you thought he was going somewhere?

Figured he'd be around but aiyuk got next to nothing outside of a TD grab to save the day. Maybe the idea of too many mouths to feed is playing out 

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18 minutes ago, BeastOfTheLeast said:

Figured he'd be around but aiyuk got next to nothing outside of a TD grab to save the day. Maybe the idea of too many mouths to feed is playing out 

I’d expect that ROS with a low volume passing team like the 49ers along with Kittle/Deebo/Bourne in the picture. Kittle, Deebo, and the RB1 on the team if healthy are the only ones worth owning and producing on this team.

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3 hours ago, Tomei7 said:

I’d expect that ROS with a low volume passing team like the 49ers along with Kittle/Deebo/Bourne in the picture. Kittle, Deebo, and the RB1 on the team if healthy are the only ones worth owning and producing on this team.

 

Unfortunately this looks to be the case. Aiyuk and Deebo also have very similar player profiles, so with Deebo returning to form the writing is on the wall.

Drop, me thinks.

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