Ke'Shawn Vaughn 2020 Outlook

[paulwall29 847]

For the people that are saying this is RoJo's backfield to lose, define what you mean by "his backfield". He had 200 touches to Peyton Barber's 170. They ditched Peyton Barber and spent a day 2 pick on a player with a three down skillset. This will be a 60/40 timeshare at best for RoJo.

[Impreza178 6,046]

1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

For the people that are saying this is RoJo's backfield to lose, define what you mean by "his backfield". He had 200 touches to Peyton Barber's 170. They ditched Peyton Barber and spent a day 2 pick on a player with a three down skillset. This will be a 60/40 timeshare at best for RoJo.

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.  
 

better luck in 2021 Vaughn owners 

👀 

[BMcP 8,125]

1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

For the people that are saying this is RoJo's backfield to lose, define what you mean by "his backfield". He had 200 touches to Peyton Barber's 170. They ditched Peyton Barber and spent a day 2 pick on a player with a three down skillset. This will be a 60/40 timeshare at best for RoJo.

I think you pretty much answered your own question.  RoJo handled the bulk of the touches last season, improved drastically in year two, and Barber vacated 170 touches - many (but not all) of which will now fall into Vaughn’s hands.

Edited May 9, 2020 by BMcP

[Impreza178 6,046]

2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I think you pretty much answered your own question.  RoJo handled the bulk of the touches last season, improved drastically in year two, and Barber vacated 170 touches - many (but not all) of which will now fall into Vaughn’s hands.

250/125 split seem reasonable?  

[paulwall29 847]

4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

250/125 split seem reasonable?  

 

Sure doesn't. Peyton Barber averaged a paltry 3.1 ypc and still toted the rock 154 times. He only had 16 receptions. RoJo had the weakest competition for touches last year that he'll have from here on out and was still in a nearly 50/50 timeshare. Best of luck with that 70/30 split!

[BMcP 8,125]

I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect any split involving every single backfield touch to be divided entirely down the middle between two RBs.  I’d say something on the order of a 30-40% MS of the touches for Vaughn in 2020 is pretty reasonable.

Edited May 9, 2020 by BMcP

[Impreza178 6,046]

39 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Sure doesn't. Peyton Barber averaged a paltry 3.1 ypc and still toted the rock 154 times. He only had 16 receptions. RoJo had the weakest competition for touches last year that he'll have from here on out and was still in a nearly 50/50 timeshare. Best of luck with that 70/30 split!

Hopefully you “wild thing” Vaughn truthers keep Rojo cheap.    50% of Tampa’s overall rb touches suits me fine.  

[paulwall29 847]

11 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect any split involving every single backfield touch to be divided entirely down the middle between two RBs.  I’d say something on the order of a 30-40% MS of the touches for Vaughn in 2020 is pretty reasonable.

 

Not saying that it won't start out that way but I would bet on 40% minimum. It is highly concerning that RoJo couldn't do better than a 53% market share competing with a a guy that had the worst YPC of all running backs with over 120 carries last year. That is what we call a RED FLAG.

[paulwall29 847]

8 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Hopefully you “wild thing” Vaughn truthers keep Rojo cheap.    50% of Tampa’s overall rb touches suits me fine.  

 

If by "wild thing" truther you mean someone who thinks this will be a timeshare going into the season but likes the guys who presents more upside in PPR because of his pass catching ability vs. the guy that couldn't do better than being in a timeshare with a washed up vet averaging 3 YPC then, sure, call me Ke'Shawn "Ricky" Vaughn. 

 

Edited May 9, 2020 by paulwall29

[BMcP 8,125]

Just now, paulwall29 said:

 

If by "wild thing" truther you mean someone who thinks this will be a timeshare going into the season but likes the guys who presents more upside in PPR because of his pass catching ability vs. the guy that couldn't do better than being in a timeshare with a washed up vet averaging 3 YPC then, sure, call me Ke'Shawn "Rick" Vaughn. 

 

I already suspected you might actually be Ke’Shawn...

[Impreza178 6,046]

7 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Not saying that it won't start out that way but I would bet on 40% minimum. It is highly concerning that RoJo couldn't do better than a 53% market share competing with a a guy that had the worst YPC of all running backs with over 120 carries last year. That is what we call a RED FLAG.

it’s what I call “Bruce Arians standard operating procedure.”   Rojo was one of the youngest prospects in the draft and didn’t play in 2018.   2019 was a YUUGGEE jump in role for him.  It seems almost a given to predict additional touches for RJ while Vaughn gets the rookie treatment.   
 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Impreza178

[BMcP 8,125]

6 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Not saying that it won't start out that way but I would bet on 40% minimum. It is highly concerning that RoJo couldn't do better than a 53% market share competing with a a guy that had the worst YPC of all running backs with over 120 carries last year. That is what we call a RED FLAG.

I wasn’t projecting that as a starting point - that was my projection for him for the entirety of the 2020 season.

[paulwall29 847]

5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I wasn’t projecting that as a starting point - that was my projection for him for the entirety of the 2020 season.

 

Yes, I'm well aware of your thoughts. I'm projecting that as a starting point.

[paulwall29 847]

6 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

it’s what I call “Bruce Arians standard operating procedure.”   Rojo was one of the youngest prospects in the draft and didn’t play in 2018.   2019 was a YUUGGEE jump in role for him.  It seems almost a given to predict additional touches for RJ while Vaughn gets the rookie treatment.   
 

 

Running back isn't a position where it takes guys time to develop, it's the easiest transition of any position in the NFL. Ronald Jones' only competition in his first 2 seasons was Peyton Barber, who is now the 12th string running back for the Redskins. The Bucs know exactly what they have in Jones, hence them spending significant capital on another running back. Please direct me towards the plethora of examples of 2nd round running backs that it took three years to "breakout" lol.

[BMcP 8,125]

6 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yes, I'm well aware of your thoughts. I'm projecting that as a starting point.

As am I of yours.  I just wanted to be sure I’d expressed my view clearly.  It’s clear that Barber was not effective in the slightest last year.  I’m just saying that I wouldn’t expect TB to completely neglect Dare and their other new draft pick to the tune of zero touches.

Edited May 9, 2020 by BMcP

[BMcP 8,125]

1 minute ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Running back isn't a position where it takes guys time to develop....

I have to disagree with this statement.  It may take less time, I’d agree with that comment.

[paulwall29 847]

1 minute ago, BMcP said:

As am I of yours.  I just wanted to be sure I’d expressed my view clearly.  It’s clear that Barber was not effective in the slightest last year.  I’m just saying that I wouldn’t expect TB to completely neglect Dare and their new draft pick to the tune of zero touches.

 

Nor do I. But they will be very much on the periphery of the backfield market share.

[paulwall29 847]

1 minute ago, BMcP said:

I have to disagree with this statement.  It may take less time, I’d agree with that comment.

 

I go off the facts not your opinion. It is common knowledge that running back is the quickest transition to the NFL. Again, point me towards the examples of first and second round backs that took 3 years to breakout with minimal competition, and then find me an example of a guy who broke out following his team spending another day 2 pick on a running back.

[BMcP 8,125]

5 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I go off the facts not your opinion. It is common knowledge that running back is the quickest transition to the NFL. Again, point me towards the examples of first and second round backs that took 3 years to breakout with minimal competition, and then find me an example of a guy who broke out following his team spending another day 2 pick on a running back.

I’m not taking orders here - I’m sure there are plenty of examples of RBs needing some time to adjust to playing at the pro level - particularly backs that entered as young as Jones did. I think we should also be mindful of the fact that TB’s backs - including Barber - were operating behind a talent-deficient O-line (until now?) and what Jones did last year was actually fairly impressive in light of that fact.

Edited May 9, 2020 by BMcP

[paulwall29 847]

19 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I’m not taking orders here - I’m sure there are plenty of examples of RBs needing some time to adjust to playing at the pro level - particularly backs that entered as young as Jones did. I think we should also be mindful of the fact that TB’s backs - including Barber - were operating behind a talent-deficient O-line (until now?) and what Jones did last year was actually fairly impressive in light of that fact.

 

Yes, there are. Running backs who teams didn't spend significant draft capital on (i.e. the Aaron Jones' of the word). If the Bucs trust Jones to breakout and be "the guy" moving forward why would they spend significant draft capital on another talented back? Why not just sign a veteran stop-gap option like Freeman, Miller, Hyde, Gore etc. to serve as a modest 1B to RoJo's 1A (i.e. the 70/30 split you speak of)?

Edited May 9, 2020 by paulwall29

[Ddam2013 607]

19 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I go off the facts not your opinion. It is common knowledge that running back is the quickest transition to the NFL. Again, point me towards the examples of first and second round backs that took 3 years to breakout with minimal competition, and then find me an example of a guy who broke out following his team spending another day 2 pick on a running back.

Devonta Freeman comes to mind, only issue is he broke out in year 2 after the falcons spent a 2nd on Coleman not in year 3

Im not getting where all the Jones hate is coming from. Do you think Jones peaked last year as a 22 year old RB? If so I at least understand where you’re coming from but I simply don’t agree with you on this one.

[BMcP 8,125]

6 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yes, there are. Running backs who teams didn't spend significant draft capital on (i.e. the Aaron Jones' of the word). If the Bucs trust Jones to breakout and be "the guy" moving forward why would they spend significant draft capital on another talented back? Why not just sign a veteran stop-gap option like Freeman, Miller, Hyde, Gore etc. to serve as a modest 1B to RoJo's 1A (i.e. the 70/30 split you speak of)?

I think you’re confusing me with @Impreza178.  I never cited that split.

I think TB wants Vaughn to be their guy long-term.  As I have stated multiple times.  I just think it would be a mistake in re-drafts to assume that transfer occurs this season.

 

[paulwall29 847]

38 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Devonta Freeman comes to mind, only issue is he broke out in year 2 after the falcons spent a 2nd on Coleman not in year 3

Im not getting where all the Jones hate is coming from. Do you think Jones peaked last year as a 22 year old RB? If so I at least understand where you’re coming from but I simply don’t agree with you on this one.

 

Freeman was a 4th rounder. I specified backs that were drafted in the first or second round--which means a team drafts them to make an immediate impact. As I said, you can find plenty of examples of guys who were drafted with 4th-7th round draft capital that took longer to break out and take a backfield over (which wasn't even the case for Freeman as he broke out in year 2). That is because players taken in the 4th-7th rounds are not drafted to produce right away, so they usually don't get much--if any--opportunity in year 1.

Edited May 9, 2020 by paulwall29

[Ddam2013 607]

16 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Freeman was a 4th rounder. I specified backs that were drafted in the first or second round--which means a team drafts them to make an immediate impact. As I said, you can find plenty of examples of guys who were drafted with 4th-7th round draft capital that took longer to break out and take a backfield over (which wasn't even the case for Freeman as he broke out in year 2). That is because players taken in the 4th-7th rounds are not drafted to produce right away, so they usually don't get much--if any--opportunity in year 1.

Stats are fun, but pointless when you cherry pick. Of course there are no examples as you are picking the criteria knowing that once you put enough layers to it you will be right. Since you’re cherry picking stats to make Jones look bad I’ll cherry pick stats to make him look like one of the best RB in the league.

Of players who have received 20 carries each of the last 2 years, Ronald Jones leads the NFL in percentage increase of rushing yards from 2018 to 2019. His year over year increase of 1545% is 6.5x the 2nd highest. 
 

Isn’t it fun to cherry pick stats to make yourself look right?

[SharkSwimmer 4,809]

1 hour ago, Ddam2013 said:

Im not getting where all the Jones hate is coming from. Do you think Jones peaked last year as a 22 year old RB? 

The hate for Jones is that Jones is one-dimensional, was not selected by the current coach, was unable to beat out Peyton Barber, and was even pulled from entire games for blowing pass pro assignments.

Then you have Arians saying that Jones was pretty good on screens but he wanted his RBs to be able to do more than that.  

And then they drafted Vaughn with a high-value pick.

So, yes indeed, it is quite possible Jones peaked as a 22 year old running back.  His skills don't translate into today's NFL because he is a poor receiver and pass protector, and he does not fit the specific profile his coach is looking for, and explicitly mentioned: a three-down back who rarely stays on the sidelines when the Bucs offense has the football.