Ke'Shawn Vaughn 2020 Outlook

[RunCMC 2,394]

29 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Stats are fun, but pointless when you cherry pick. Of course there are no examples as you are picking the criteria knowing that once you put enough layers to it you will be right. Since you’re cherry picking stats to make Jones look bad I’ll cherry pick stats to make him look like one of the best RB in the league.

Of players who have received 20 carries each of the last 2 years, Ronald Jones leads the NFL in percentage increase of rushing yards from 2018 to 2019. His year over year increase of 1545% is 6.5x the 2nd highest. 
 

Isn’t it fun to cherry pick stats to make yourself look right?

That’s a terrible stat , what the hell is that. Good point you’re trying to make, just poor execution. 

[paulwall29 847]

36 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Stats are fun, but pointless when you cherry pick. Of course there are no examples as you are picking the criteria knowing that once you put enough layers to it you will be right. Since you’re cherry picking stats to make Jones look bad I’ll cherry pick stats to make him look like one of the best RB in the league.

Of players who have received 20 carries each of the last 2 years, Ronald Jones leads the NFL in percentage increase of rushing yards from 2018 to 2019. His year over year increase of 1545% is 6.5x the 2nd highest. 
 

Isn’t it fun to cherry pick stats to make yourself look right?

 

How is it cherry picking stats to ask for examples of first and second round backs that have taken as long as it has taken Jones to take over their teams backfield? There is an enormous difference in expectations for first and second rounders than there is for fourth rounders, there is nothing cherr-picked about that. Well done showing the percentage of increase from a league low 1.9 YPC. Impressive that you could so clearly illustrate what cherry picking stats looks like.

Edited May 9, 2020 by paulwall29

[BMcP 8,153]

16 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The hate for Jones is that Jones is one-dimensional, was not selected by the current coach, was unable to beat out Peyton Barber, and was even pulled from entire games for blowing pass pro assignments.

Then you have Arians saying that Jones was pretty good on screens but he wanted his RBs to be able to do more than that.  

And then they drafted Vaughn with a high-value pick.

So, yes indeed, it is quite possible Jones peaked as a 22 year old running back.  His skills don't translate into today's NFL because he is a poor receiver and pass protector, and he does not fit the specific profile his coach is looking for, and explicitly mentioned: a three-down back who rarely stays on the sidelines when the Bucs offense has the football.

Hate the “hate” business - I think it’s fair to say Arians wants more from his primary tailback.

But an “uptick” in production seems almost like a misnomer: 1.9 to 4.2 ypc; 4.7 to 10.0 receiving.  All accomplished as a 22-year-old making his way in a different system.

Arians has repeatedly spoken highly of Jones as a rusher.  He’s one of the few who just speaks his mind off the cuff.  He’ll still have a major role this season.
 

 

 

 

 

[Ddam2013 607]

2 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

That’s a terrible stat , what the hell is that. Good point you’re trying to make, just poor execution. 

I like Jones but believe it or not it’s hard to find stats where he’s the top anything.... but year over year percentage increase in rushing yards he’s number 1.

2 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

How is it cherry picking stats to ask for examples of first and second round backs that have taken as long as it has taken Jones to take over their teams backfield?  Well done showing the percentage of increase from a league low 1.9 YPC. Impressive that you could so clearly illustrate what cherry picking stats looks like.

2 thing that was my point to prove how cherry picking doesn’t do anything and You’re asking for:

1: a highly drafted RB

2: who struggled for 2+ years

3: who’s team went out and drafted another rb high in the draft

4: who then broke out in year 3

You made a random statement to prove jones is bad I made up a random stat to prove he’s good they are both meaningless.

[Ddam2013 607]

28 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

was unable to beat out Peyton Barber

Barber is bad we can all agree to that but I would say Barber is way better than Kendrick Foster and Reggie Corbin.

[SharkSwimmer 4,814]

3 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Barber is bad we can all agree to that but I would say Barber is way better than Kendrick Foster and Reggie Corbin.

If a player is unable to beat out Peyton Barber, that player is a bad player.

Third Law of Thermodynamics.

[RunCMC 2,394]

4 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

I like Jones but believe it or not it’s hard to find stats where he’s the top anything.... but year over year percentage increase in rushing yards he’s number 1.

 

Well it’s hard to find stats that don’t exist mate 🧐 . And the yearly % increase in rushing stats, just means he was major a** the first season(s) , so even a little improvement would mean a crazy spike in said percentage. My opinion , RoJo is no JAG but nothing special either. 

[Impreza178 6,046]

2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If a player is unable to beat out Peyton Barber, that player is a bad player.

Third Law of Thermodynamics.

he did beat out Barber.  An entire ypc better, and more touches despite being benched if he so much as had his shoe come untied.   
 

To think Vaughn won’t get the same quick hook and limited role is fantasyland my fishy friend.  

[BMcP 8,153]

43 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

he did beat out Barber.  An entire ypc better, and more touches despite being benched if he so much as had his shoe come untied.   
 

To think Vaughn won’t get the same quick hook and limited role is fantasyland my fishy friend.  

Yeah.  I’m no thermodynmaticist - but I also feel like we may not be speaking to Newton reincarnate here.

[paulwall29 847]

5 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

I like Jones but believe it or not it’s hard to find stats where he’s the top anything.... but year over year percentage increase in rushing yards he’s number 1.

2 thing that was my point to prove how cherry picking doesn’t do anything and You’re asking for:

1: a highly drafted RB

2: who struggled for 2+ years

3: who’s team went out and drafted another rb high in the draft

4: who then broke out in year 3

You made a random statement to prove jones is bad I made up a random stat to prove he’s good they are both meaningless.

 

Nope just asking for a highly drafted running back that took 3 years to take over his teams backfield. Pretty straightforward and not random at all. It's actually the opposite of a random stat. Look up the word random and then try again.

[Boudewijn 4,354]

50 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Nope just asking for a highly drafted running back that took 3 years to take over his teams backfield.

Given that RoJo last season had double the yards of the #2 RB on his team and was the starter for the second half of the season with a third more touches in that period, I'd say he was already there. But let's look for an 1st/2nd round RB who was underwhelming the first year, great the third year and somewhere in between during the second year:

- Derrick Henry. Nuff said. Took him 2.5 years to get it, and boy, did he get it.

- The best example I could find was Larry Johnson though, first rounder in Kansas. Went from pretty much nothing the first year (and a lot of issues), ok the second year to 2 consecutive 2000 yd seasons (with 21 and 19 TD to boot).

But it has to be said, it's pretty rare.

 

[paulwall29 847]

54 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Given that RoJo last season had double the yards of the #2 RB on his team and was the starter for the second half of the season with a third more touches in that period, I'd say he was already there. But let's look for an 1st/2nd round RB who was underwhelming the first year, great the third year and somewhere in between during the second year:

- Derrick Henry. Nuff said. Took him 2.5 years to get it, and boy, did he get it.

- The best example I could find was Larry Johnson though, first rounder in Kansas. Went from pretty much nothing the first year (and a lot of issues), ok the second year to 2 consecutive 2000 yd seasons (with 21 and 19 TD to boot).

But it has to be said, it's pretty rare.

 

 

I was actually waiting for someone to bring up Derrick Henry or Mark Ingram. The point of the exercise was to show how rare it is. Larry Johnson was another good example. The thing that separates LJ and Derrick Henry here is that the were drafted to be the predecessors to elite running backs--DeMarco Murray and Priest Holmes respectively. Priest Holmes had 2000 total yards and 31 TD's LJ's rookie year and 1,000 yards and 15 TD's in his second. DeMarco had 1600 yards and 12 TD's in Henry's rookie year and then split work with him in year 2. This is a far cry from not being able to beat out Peyton Barber. RoJo was brought in to a situation where the team wanted him to be the lead back and he has struggled to take a strangle hold. Mark Ingram is actually the best example but he was competing for touches with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles who actually were all solid RB's at the time. It is certainly possible for Ronald Jones to carve out an RB1/2 career but the odds are he will be a part of a committee--or relegated to a secondary role--for the rest of his career.

Edited May 10, 2020 by paulwall29

[BMcP 8,153]

3 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I was actually waiting for someone to bring up Derrick Henry or Mark Ingram. The point of the exercise was to show how rare it is. Larry Johnson was another good example. The thing that separates LJ and Derrick Henry here is that the were drafted to be the predecessors to elite running backs--DeMarco Murray and Priest Holmes respectively. Priest Holmes had 2000 total yards and 31 TD's LJ's rookie year and 1,000 yards and 15 TD's in his second. DeMarco had 1600 yards and 12 TD's in Henry's rookie year and then split work with him in year 2. This is a far cry from not being able to beat out Peyton Barber. RoJo was brought in to a situation where the team wanted him to be the lead back and he has struggled to take a strangle hold. Mark Ingram is actually the best example but he was competing for touches with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles who actually were all solid RB's at the time. It is certainly possible for Ronald Jones to carve out an RB1/2 career but the odds are he will be a part of a committee--or relegated to a secondary role--for the rest of his career.

It was an “exercise”?  Ok, thanks, coach.

Edited May 10, 2020 by BMcP

[markrc99 583]

3 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I was actually waiting for someone to bring up Derrick Henry or Mark Ingram. The point of the exercise was to show how rare it is. Larry Johnson was another good example. The thing that separates LJ and Derrick Henry here is that the were drafted to be the predecessors to elite running backs--DeMarco Murray and Priest Holmes respectively. Priest Holmes had 2000 total yards and 31 TD's LJ's rookie year and 1,000 yards and 15 TD's in his second. DeMarco had 1600 yards and 12 TD's in Henry's rookie year and then split work with him in year 2. This is a far cry from not being able to beat out Peyton Barber. RoJo was brought in to a situation where the team wanted him to be the lead back and he has struggled to take a strangle hold. Mark Ingram is actually the best example but he was competing for touches with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles who actually were all solid RB's at the time. It is certainly possible for Ronald Jones to carve out an RB1/2 career but the odds are he will be a part of a committee--or relegated to a secondary role--for the rest of his career.

The initial example of your premise is 2018, where Rashad Penny, Kerryon Johnson, Sony Michel & Derrius Guice were all taken in the 1st two rounds. Penny & Guice haven’t done anything. Neither Michel or Johnson are low center prototypes but the measure is production & I suppose they’ve met your threshold. Although, both teams (New England & Detroit) have drafted RBs more than capable of unseating the incumbent. Damien Harris, who will be had for free, watch out for this player! 

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,845]

D Henry is a bad example. He was always a stud that got dropped into an inept coaching staff for his first 2 years.

[Boudewijn 4,354]

16 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

D Henry is a bad example. He was always a stud that got dropped into an inept coaching staff for his first 2 years.

The NFL doesn't have a lot of ept coaching staff.

[BMcP 8,153]

1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

The initial example of your premise is 2018, where Rashad Penny, Kerryon Johnson, Sony Michel & Derrius Guice were all taken in the 1st two rounds. Penny & Guice haven’t done anything. Neither Michel or Johnson are low center prototypes but the measure is production & I suppose they’ve met your threshold. Although, both teams (New England & Detroit) have drafted RBs more than capable of unseating the incumbent. Damien Harris, who will be had for free, watch out for this player! 

When the threshold is backs drafted to be the “predecessors” to talented RBs who are already in the NFL, I have to stop paying attention, personally.

[BMcP 8,153]

1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

D Henry is a bad example. He was always a stud that got dropped into an inept coaching staff for his first 2 years.

Even Derrick himself would not argue he was a “stud” initially - you know this.

[SharkSwimmer 4,814]

12 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

he did beat out Barber.  An entire ypc better, and more touches despite being benched if he so much as had his shoe come untied.   
 

To think Vaughn won’t get the same quick hook and limited role is fantasyland my fishy friend.  

Chris Carson beat out Rashad Penny.  Seattle took no RBs in rounds 1-3.

David Montgomery beat out Mike Davis.  No running back drafted.

Kenyon Drake beat out David Johnson.  No running back drafted until round 7.

Ronald Jones formed a committee with Peyton Barber.  Then the Bucs drafted a three-down back in round 2.

This was not an excercise.

Edited May 10, 2020 by SharkSwimmer

[BMcP 8,153]

2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Chris Carson beat out Rashad Penny.  Seattle took no RBs in rounds 1-4.

David Montgomery beat out Mike Davis.  No running back drafted.

Kenyon Drake beat out David Johnson.  No running back drafted until round 7.

Ronald Jones formed a committee with Peyton Barber.  Then the Bucs drafted a three-down back in round 2.

This was not an excercise.

Somewhere, DeeJay Dallas sheds a single tear....

Edited May 10, 2020 by BMcP

[Boudewijn 4,354]

55 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Even Derrick himself would not argue he was a “stud” initially - you know this.

As a reminder for DHC

 

[BMcP 8,153]

1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

As a reminder for DHC

 

Thank you, Boudewijn, for the clip memorializing his “come-to-George” moment.

[SharkSwimmer 4,814]

7 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Somewhere, DeeJay Dallas sheds a single tear....

You are correct that Deejay Dallas was selected in round 4.  You may not prove to be correct that Seattle uses him as a running back.  Possibly he's a return man and special teamer.

I wanted Seattle to take one of the top running backs but they are irrationally in love with slow, fumbling Chris Carson.

But the point is the same.  If a team is happy with the current RBs, not going to use a high pick on one.  And Tampa picked Vaughn in round 2.

[BMcP 8,153]

1 minute ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You are correct that Deejay Dallas was selected in round 4.  You may not prove to be correct that Seattle uses him as a running back.  Possibly he's a return man and special teamer.

I wanted Seattle to take one of the top running backs but they are irrationally in love with slow, fumbling Chris Carson.

But the point is the same.  If a team is happy with the current RBs, not going to use a high pick on one.  And Tampa picked Vaughn in round 2.

I’m beginning to feel like your round perception is off by one....

[Impreza178 6,046]

19 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You are correct that Deejay Dallas was selected in round 4.  You may not prove to be correct that Seattle uses him as a running back.  Possibly he's a return man and special teamer.

I wanted Seattle to take one of the top running backs but they are irrationally in love with slow, fumbling Chris Carson.

But the point is the same.  If a team is happy with the current RBs, not going to use a high pick on one.  And Tampa picked Vaughn in round 2.

Round 3,  chief.   Tampa passed on the real difference makers and went with a role player.