Justin Herbert 2020 Outlook

[varock 219]

2 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

Lynn needs to go, Chargers became the first team to ever lose 3 games in a season when leading by 16 or more pts

today made no 4.  Thats all on coaching

1st and 25, up 3 lets play for a FG, WTF does a FG do for you, you take a FG, you run a 8 yard route on 1st down and see what happens, whats he call?  Run up the middle for 2 yards, then a 5 yard slant and a scramble

 

I actually didn’t mind that last sequence of play calling. Their goal was to chew clock and get in range of a FG which would’ve pressed the Broncos to march down the field and score a TD in a two-minute drill with one timeout left. Statistically, a 1st and 25 is very difficult to convert and attempting to do so would’ve likely led to incomplete passes/risky throws, and the clock stopping. And this isn’t Mahomes or Rodgers marching down the field here, it’s Drew Lock we’re talking about. Defense just had a meltdown there at the end. 

[Golden Spikes 2,008]

1 hour ago, varock said:

I actually didn’t mind that last sequence of play calling. Their goal was to chew clock and get in range of a FG which would’ve pressed the Broncos to march down the field and score a TD in a two-minute drill with one timeout left. Statistically, a 1st and 25 is very difficult to convert and attempting to do so would’ve likely led to incomplete passes/risky throws, and the clock stopping. And this isn’t Mahomes or Rodgers marching down the field here, it’s Drew Lock we’re talking about. Defense just had a meltdown there at the end. 

And I agree in principal. But the chargers do this every single game. It’s not an isolated incident. They haven’t held anyone from a game winning drive

[MBarbarian 968]

Justin Herbert is going to be on a lot of fantasy championship teams.  Remaining schedule is amazing.

Week, Opponent, Overall Defense Rank (Pass Defense)

9. LV  31 (29)

10. @MIA 14 (6)

11. NYJ  20 (28)

12. @ BUF  21 (18)

13. NE 25 (23)

14. ATL 27 (31)

15. @LV 31 (29)

16. DEN 7 (9)

Edited November 2, 2020 by MBarbarian

[harck 478]

I can see Miami/BUF/NE being rough. Miami is looking like a top 5 defense all around. NE has some ball hawks (they have an interception or fumble in every single game, and many multiple interception games) and Belichick will exploit a rookie QB. Buffalo is hit or miss, sometimes their defense looks incredible and other times they collapse.

But yeah, really happy with this kid and the other matchups are juicy.

Edited November 2, 2020 by harck

[MBarbarian 968]

Herbert has already proven himself matchup-proof.  He finished as the QB7 versus the #1 defense (TB), QB4 vs. #10 defense (NO) and QB4 vs. the #7 defense (@DEN).  In his only easy matchup (vs. JAX), he finished as the QB1.

[ninersdd 334]

 

[rasrar 255]

 

Just now, ninersdd said:

 

 

Grateful he avoided injury there.

[3FLi 106]

On 11/2/2020 at 2:49 PM, harck said:

I can see Miami/BUF/NE being rough. Miami is looking like a top 5 defense all around. NE has some ball hawks (they have an interception or fumble in every single game, and many multiple interception games) and Belichick will exploit a rookie QB. Buffalo is hit or miss, sometimes their defense looks incredible and other times they collapse.

But yeah, really happy with this kid and the other matchups are juicy.

Yeah Miami's defense seems legit. He has take on some of the best and produced but I am strongly considering sitting him for Brees next week.

NE is another big concern because they are playing small ball now and trying to kill the clock. That and like you said Belichick will game plan around him.

Buffalo concerns me a little less only because the Chargers defense has taken so many injuries that they aren't that good anymore so Josh Allen might make it a race.

[LionKid90 426]

3 hours ago, 3FLi said:

Yeah Miami's defense seems legit. He has take on some of the best and produced but I am strongly considering sitting him for Brees next week.

NE is another big concern because they are playing small ball now and trying to kill the clock. That and like you said Belichick will game plan around him.

Buffalo concerns me a little less only because the Chargers defense has taken so many injuries that they aren't that good anymore so Josh Allen might make it a race.

Miami and NE would be concerns for me. Miami has a very good defense, with arguably the best cornerback duo in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. NE is going to play a lot of low scoring games, I think Herbert can do okay against them, but that game has little change to be high scoring.

I wouldn’t worry too much about Buffalo. They had a nice showing today, but that was one game. They are improving, but not a defense I would be afraid of.

[FreakFries 1,388]

Saw Herbert for the first time yesterday. Wow. 
 

That guy has some serious moxie and poise. Absolutely fearless as the pocket collapses around him. Made some really good throws under pressure and on must-complete downs. 
 

He looked really good!

 

Happy to be on this train. 

[oliminator123 3,448]

8 hours ago, 3FLi said:

Yeah Miami's defense seems legit. 

 

5 hours ago, LionKid90 said:

Miami and NE would be concerns for me. Miami has a very good defense, with arguably the best cornerback duo in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. 

Miami just got eaten alive by Kyler. Are they really that good? The only top tier QB's they've played have done fine and Herbert is moving up to that tier. Miami's schedule up to this point has been against bottom 10 QB's.

Scam, Flaccid Flacco, Beathard, injured Minshew. 

They got eaten alive by Josh Allen and Kyler. 

[LionKid90 426]

3 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

 

Miami just got eaten alive by Kyler. Are they really that good? The only top tier QB's they've played have done fine and Herbert is moving up to that tier. Miami's schedule up to this point has been against bottom 10 QB's.

Scam, Flaccid Flacco, Beathard, injured Minshew. 

They got eaten alive by Josh Allen and Kyler. 

Miami has had mixed results against QBs. Yeah Kyler has a great game, but he isn’t your typical QB. They pretty much shut down Goff and the Rams offense last week. They contained some bad teams, but even Jags and Niners have shown they are capable of scoring.

I don’t think you bench Herbert because of the matchup, but expectations might need to be tempered down.

[The 7th Beatles 15,564]

 

[kyoun1e 1,050]

35 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

Miami has had mixed results against QBs. Yeah Kyler has a great game, but he isn’t your typical QB. They pretty much shut down Goff and the Rams offense last week. They contained some bad teams, but even Jags and Niners have shown they are capable of scoring.

I don’t think you bench Herbert because of the matchup, but expectations might need to be tempered down.

 

Hitched my wagon to Herbert a few weeks back, but this is the first matchup I'm a bit fearful of especially if M. Williams is out.

Flores and that D are no joke. He will know how to scheme this guy.

Definitely going to explore alternatives this week. That said, still may start him.

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

4 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

 

Miami just got eaten alive by Kyler. Are they really that good? The only top tier QB's they've played have done fine and Herbert is moving up to that tier. Miami's schedule up to this point has been against bottom 10 QB's.

Scam, Flaccid Flacco, Beathard, injured Minshew. 

They got eaten alive by Josh Allen and Kyler. 

Yes- Miami is that good. Kyler is a magician who was one slight tackle away from major losses on offense but he’s too talented to overcome some of the stingy defense. Miami is great at covering the pass and that’s what they did to blanket Hopkins. Herberts strength is passing and LAC is traveling cross country after a tough loss. Also, you trust Lynn on the road?

 

im starting Miami defense with top-12 confidence against a rookie on a bad non clutch team. I’m betting 3-4 sacks and multiple turnovers 

[kyoun1e 1,050]

Just now, PlayTheWaivers said:

Yes- Miami is that good. Kyler is a magician who was one slight tackle away from major losses on offense but he’s too talented to overcome some of the stingy defense. Miami is great at covering the pass and that’s what they did to blanket Hopkins. Herberts strength is passing and LAC is traveling cross country after a tough loss. Also, you trust Lynn on the road?

 

im starting Miami defense with top-12 confidence against a rookie on a bad non clutch team. I’m betting 3-4 sacks and multiple turnovers 

 

Agree with this take.

Miami is rolling.

[yanksman 3,781]

Miami is 20th in pass ypg allowed. They faced injured Jimmy G, Joe Flacco, and Goff 3 games in a row. They got abused by Cam Newton, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray. They are all running QBs but I am not concerned in the slightest. This dude roasted several good defenses this year (TB, NO, DEN). 

[munygon2 395]

Any concerns this week that he won’t need to throw as much against the Jets to win and they’ll just run it a lot?

[FeastMode 374]

7 minutes ago, munygon2 said:

Any concerns this week that he won’t need to throw as much against the Jets to win and they’ll just run it a lot?

With how they’ve blown leads this year you would think they wouldn’t take the foot off the gas unless they are up 40. But then again with how they’ve blown leads maybe they would.

[yanksman 3,781]

12 minutes ago, munygon2 said:

Any concerns this week that he won’t need to throw as much against the Jets to win and they’ll just run it a lot?

Their defense is dreadful

[ohio#1eaglesfan 539]

1 hour ago, munygon2 said:

Any concerns this week that he won’t need to throw as much against the Jets to win and they’ll just run it a lot?

You know the Chargers record right? This game should be competitive. 

[munygon2 395]

4 minutes ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

You know the Chargers record right? This game should be competitive. 

Hope so, pretty much all his games have been playing from behind so that helps his passing stats immensely. 

[yanksman 3,781]

18 minutes ago, munygon2 said:

Hope so, pretty much all his games have been playing from behind so that helps his passing stats immensely. 

Thats not true at all. Theyve had plenty of games in which theyve blown leads.

[harck 478]

Can't speak enough about how much of an absolute fantasy stud Herbert is and will be. Next year should be a top priority when drafting a QB. They just faced an absolutely lethal Miami Defense and he still put up 21 points (which now looks like his floor), and on top of that, his coaching staff is actively holding him back with garbage like this:

Really hope the Chargers clean up this off-season. You have what appears to be one of the best rookie QB prospects of all time playing like he's been in the league for 5 years already, and you just hamstring him with terrible playcalling. I'd be upset if I were Keenan Allen right now too, looking at how the Packers scheme for Davante Adams, particularly in the redzone.

[FreakFries 1,388]

21 minutes ago, harck said:

Can't speak enough about how much of an absolute fantasy stud Herbert is and will be. Next year should be a top priority when drafting a QB. They just faced an absolutely lethal Miami Defense and he still put up 21 points (which now looks like his floor), and on top of that, his coaching staff is actively holding him back with garbage like this:

Really hope the Chargers clean up this off-season. You have what appears to be one of the best rookie QB prospects of all time playing like he's been in the league for 5 years already, and you just hamstring him with terrible playcalling. I'd be upset if I were Keenan Allen right now too, looking at how the Packers scheme for Davante Adams, particularly in the redzone.

 

I agree with your point and thank you for the info but please don’t EVER use the word “hamstring”  when posting about JH again. 
 

Thanks 🙏 

Edited November 20, 2020 by FreakFries