Tee Higgins 2020 Outlook

[FitzMagic 4,260]

Good insurance if you own AJ Green. Someone has to be a #1 or #2 receiver in that offense and whoever emerges is going to eat for days due to the passing volume. Right now it is Boyd, but he's not a true #1, just de facto. Since Mixon is not getting passes everything is just there for the taking right now. I drafted AJ thinking he'd be that guy, but we shall see. A lot of football left.

[Trifecta 2,133]

4 hours ago, brosephd said:

any tyler boyd owners feeling comfortable in double dipping and owning 2 bengals receivers?

 

I did just that. There aren't many passing offenses you'd be willing to stack in your lineup, but it certainly appears the Bengals are one of them.  Plus, it's nice to have that insurance that if your Boyd investment is hindered due to injury that your free pickup in Higgins gets a nice bump in value.  I'm totally fine with Boyd at WR2 and Higgins in the flex this weekend.

[Whitecloud0101 361]

14 hours ago, FitzMagic said:

Good insurance if you own AJ Green. Someone has to be a #1 or #2 receiver in that offense and whoever emerges is going to eat for days due to the passing volume. Right now it is Boyd, but he's not a true #1, just de facto. Since Mixon is not getting passes everything is just there for the taking right now. I drafted AJ thinking he'd be that guy, but we shall see. A lot of football left.

why would you insure a 1992 Honda Civic??🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

[FeastMode 374]

40 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

why would you insure a 1992 Honda Civic??🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

C’mon.  AJ is a ‘92 Honda Accord.  And not a DX.  He’s an EX, with the leather, high end trim package, rims, sunroof, 6 disc changer.  240,000 miles and two hailstorms ago he was a sweet ride.  But sadly today the leather is all trashed from driving in wet swim trunks, the head gasket is bad so he’s throwing smoke, and some high schooler is driving him.

Edited October 1, 2020 by FeastMode

[Sonny_D 1,962]

2 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

why would you insure a 1992 Honda Civic??🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

You still need liability insurance. 

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,845]

 

 

9 targets?

 

That WR1 quantity.

 

Yes please.

[FinsUp24 519]

1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

9 targets?

 

That WR1 quantity.

 

Yes please.

Gotta love it. He seems to have some rapport with Burrow. A couple of those missed targets were deep shots too. Connect on a couple of those and people would’ve been blowing FAAB for Higgins just as much as they were for Jefferson. 

[BallinOnnaBudget 345]

I'm a believer but have no slots. I need ESPN to update Godwin to O so I can grab Higgins. 

Plz ESPN hurry uppppp, #TeeBurrow is the future in Cinci

[AnchorDown 617]

2 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

9 targets?

 

That WR1 quantity.

 

Yes please.

I’ve got Higgins at the end of my bench, but I have to say—not super impressed by the film. I think it’s great that he had two redzone passes schemed for him, and he converted both chances for touchdowns. That said, I didn’t really see any elite ball skills, nothing after the catch, nothing pops from a route running perspective, honestly just a relatively ho-hum performance on the film. 9 targets is great but the game went all the way through overtime and Burrow threw it 44 times. 
 

This will continue to be a pass-heavy offense so the opportunities should continue to some extent, but they aren’t going to play an extra quarter every week, and it’s not like Higgins really jumped off the screen as someone who needs to be fed more often. That said, AJG is clearly washed and Boyd isn’t a true #1, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that this guy turns into a solid but unspectacular WR3/4 option. But I’m just not seeing the flash or the star power from this guy yet, as opposed to a guy like Jefferson who just oozes talent when you watch him. 

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

35 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

I’ve got Higgins at the end of my bench, but I have to say—not super impressed by the film. I think it’s great that he had two redzone passes schemed for him, and he converted both chances for touchdowns. That said, I didn’t really see any elite ball skills, nothing after the catch, nothing pops from a route running perspective, honestly just a relatively ho-hum performance on the film. 9 targets is great but the game went all the way through overtime and Burrow threw it 44 times. 
 

This will continue to be a pass-heavy offense so the opportunities should continue to some extent, but they aren’t going to play an extra quarter every week, and it’s not like Higgins really jumped off the screen as someone who needs to be fed more often. That said, AJG is clearly washed and Boyd isn’t a true #1, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that this guy turns into a solid but unspectacular WR3/4 option. But I’m just not seeing the flash or the star power from this guy yet, as opposed to a guy like Jefferson who just oozes talent when you watch him. 

 

Not sure what video you're watching. He almost made a great grab on the second throw.

Burrow is going to be throwing all year long...Bengals almost led the league last year with Andy Dalton.

Not out of realm of possibilities AJ Green is starting to get phased out a la Todd Gurley. Some of these plays were designed for Higgins as the first read or even for him being the read. 

I think he has higher upside than Jefferson...people are going ga-ga over a run-first offense headed by Cousins that still has Thielen in front of him. I know the Vikings will pass more this year due to their defense, but it's up to Cousins to make it happen. 

[BallinOnnaBudget 345]

He doesn't have crazy burst or anything, but he's a big body target, looks to be the primary read on a number of plays, and his QB trusts going to him with the ball. I think he's valuable moving forward, especially on a team with a weak defense with an underwhelming RB, and a gunslinger QB. 

[Tomei7 591]

1 hour ago, FinsUp24 said:

Gotta love it. He seems to have some rapport with Burrow. A couple of those missed targets were deep shots too. Connect on a couple of those and people would’ve been blowing FAAB for Higgins just as much as they were for Jefferson. 

Yeah there were plays left on the field that could of really boosted his stats. 2 of Burrows deep throws to Higgins got defended very well, defender barely tipped the ball to avoid the catch and both were for 30+ yds, in full PPR that could have been 8pts more, then on another play in the 4th qt Burrow was scrambling to the right did a spin move and hit Higgins for a 20yd gain, if Burrow throws that ball inside instead of towards the out of bounds line Higgins had nothing but daylight ahead of him and could have gone for a big time gain. Higgins could have easily had 30+pts. 

[TheBoondocks 412]

5 minutes ago, Tomei7 said:

Yeah there were plays left on the field that could of really boosted his stats. 2 of Burrows deep throws to Higgins got defended very well, defender barely tipped the ball to avoid the catch and both were for 30+ yds, in full PPR that could have been 8pts more, then on another play in the 4th qt Burrow was scrambling to the right did a spin move and hit Higgins for a 20yd gain, if Burrow throws that ball inside instead of towards the out of bounds line Higgins had nothing but daylight ahead of him and could have gone for a big time gain. Higgins could have easily had 30+pts. 

 

[MBarbarian 968]

I think there's a good chance Higgins takes the alpha receiver role from AJ Green based on performance alone.  I think there's an even BETTER chance Higgins takes it and runs with it due to an AJ Green injury. 

Almost a given that AJ will miss some games this year.  Didn't realize he's already 32 years old or how many injuries he's had over his career.

Once he misses a game, Higgins takes the alpha spot and never gives it back.

Date	Injury	Analysis
Jul 27, 2019	Pedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3	Green initially suffered his injury on the first day of training camp and it seemed like he might return for the team’s final two games before shutting himself down, then shifting to injured reserve for the final week.
Dec 2, 2018	Pedal Toe Sprain	Green aggravated his right toe injury and missed the final 4 games of the season.
Oct 28, 2018	Pedal Toe Sprain	Green missed 3 games with an injury to his right big toe.
Sep 23, 2018	Inguinal Groin Pull Grade 1	Green injured his groin in Week 3 but was able to play the following week.
Nov 20, 2016	Thigh Hamstring Tear Grade 3	Green tore his right hamstring in Week 11 and missed the rest of the season. He landed on IR in Week 17, despite reportedly wanting to play over the final 2 weeks.
Dec 19, 2015	Back Tailbone Bruise	The Bengals added Green to the Week 15 injury report with an unspecified back issue after a Saturday walkthrough. He played in the game but left in the 3rd quarter, then played again in Week 16.
Dec 28, 2014	Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1	Green took a nasty hit from Steelers S Mike Mitchell in Week 17. He missed the Wild Card Round playoff loss with a concussion.
Dec 22, 2014	Arm	Green sustained a bruised right biceps in Week 16 and was in and out of that game. He played through it in Week 17 as well.
Oct 8, 2014	Pedal Toe Turf Toe	Green aggravated the injury to his right big toe in Wednesday practice for Week 6. He missed that week's game plus the following 2.
Sep 7, 2014	Pedal Toe Turf Toe	Green suffered "something like turf toe" in his right foot early in the season opener. He played through it then but made it through just 6 snaps in Week 2.
Jul 25, 2013	Knee Strain Grade 1	Green hurt his left knee in a July 25 camp practice. He returned to practice Aug. 14 and missed the 1st 2 preseason games.
Nov 13, 2011	Knee Strain Grade 1	Green hyperextended his right knee against the Steelers and missed the following game.
Nov 14, 2009	Shoulder A/C Joint Sprain	Green hurt his left shoulder against Auburn and missed the next 2 games. He returned for the Independence Bowl.
Oct 31, 2009	Chest Lung Bruise	Green missed 1 game with a bruised lung.

Edited October 1, 2020 by MBarbarian

[thefranchise3 99]

Used a waiver pickup on him this week. I think he'll be really valuable in the 2nd half of the year once everyone gets settled in. I think there's a good chance Green is traded as well.

[AnchorDown 617]

1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Not sure what video you're watching. He almost made a great grab on the second throw.

Burrow is going to be throwing all year long...Bengals almost led the league last year with Andy Dalton.

Not out of realm of possibilities AJ Green is starting to get phased out a la Todd Gurley. Some of these plays were designed for Higgins as the first read or even for him being the read. 

I think he has higher upside than Jefferson...people are going ga-ga over a run-first offense headed by Cousins that still has Thielen in front of him. I know the Vikings will pass more this year due to their defense, but it's up to Cousins to make it happen. 

That second play would have been great, had he caught it—but he didn’t. Underthrown by Burrow there no doubt and he had a little separation, but I think it’s a catchable ball for certain players. Higgins couldn’t come down with it. Also had another chunk play in OT but he stumbled over the DB and clearly wasn’t at his spot—not sure exactly why or how he lost his balance, but again, didn’t connect. 
 

3 of the 9 targets came in overtime. I think if he ended the game with 6 targets, 4 receptions, 2 TDs the perception becomes that he’s a good redzone target—which he is—but potentially not a guy who seems primed to emerge as their top option. 
 

I agree with you on AJ and also agree that it’s great to see him as the primary option on some of these targets. Hopefully his role develops and he makes more of his opportunities so he can build trust with Burrow, but again—6 targets in 4 quarters isn’t going to cut it if we want to see this guy as a WR2 option or something similar. If his role grows, and it very well could, we might have something here—but we also have to contend with the fact that he’s a rookie WR playing with a rookie QB on a team that isn’t exactly known for lighting up the scoreboard. I would feel better if his talent flashed on film, but right now I don’t see that special something to indicate that this guy is just waiting to break out given more opportunity.

He wasn’t able to convert the contested catches, did nothing from a YAC perspective, and was schemed wide open on his two TDs. I’m not saying he can’t spark or that he’s not talented—I personally just haven’t seen it on film yet. He’s a good end of bench stash in some leagues but I still think he has to show a lot more before you can even start him as a WR3/flex option. Absolutely hold onto this guy, but I could see him being a drop in 3 weeks as easily as I could see owners inserting him into starting lineups. 
 

For the sake of the league I own him in, I hope I’m wrong or that there’s something I’m missing. 

[the1gq2nvy 211]

I own Green and Tee....hoping for that as well and gets traded.

[gsiegel 43]

Obviously expectations need to be tempered, but he is in a great potential situation and has flashed.

What do you do in those situations? Hold and see how things develop.

[MBarbarian 968]

@AnchorDown  The targets don't tell the whole story of Higgins breakout in week 3.  Look at the air yards.

AJ Green was getting massive air yards weeks one and two (338 AY led the entire league by a wide margin), but couldn't do anything with them.  In week 3, AJ got 6 targets, but only 45 air yards.  That massive drop in air yards wasn't by accident.  Instead of forcing long balls to him again, Burrow threw him short, low fantasy value passes, probably at the coah   

Where did those air yards go?  To Higgins - 150 air yards in week 3 alone (6th most of all receivers), and 9 more than Boyd on 4 LESS targets.

It looks like the Bengals staff may have already accepted AJ's decline and shifted the massive role they had planned for AJ over to Higgins.  If so, Higgins owners may have a legit WR1 ROS.

[daethfromabove1979 874]

I own Burrow in a couple leagues so might as well stack him with Higgins, doesn’t seem like they are going to have any running game in Cincy.

[AnchorDown 617]

51 minutes ago, MBarbarian said:

@AnchorDown  The targets don't tell the whole story of Higgins breakout in week 3.  Look at the air yards.

AJ Green was getting massive air yards weeks one and two (338 AY led the entire league by a wide margin), but couldn't do anything with them.  In week 3, AJ got 6 targets, but only 45 air yards.  That massive drop in air yards wasn't by accident.  Instead of forcing long balls to him again, Burrow threw him short, low fantasy value passes, probably at the coah   

Where did those air yards go?  To Higgins - 150 air yards in week 3 alone (6th most of all receivers), and 9 more than Boyd on 4 LESS targets.

It looks like the Bengals staff may have already accepted AJ's decline and shifted the massive role they had planned for AJ over to Higgins.  If so, Higgins owners may have a legit WR1 ROS.

 

Great post. Interesting to think about the air yards and the shift from AJG to Tee from that approach. And yet still, those massive air yards converted into 40 receiving yards for Higgins. That's the part that concerns me--AJG didn't get it done with those opportunities, and you could argue similarly based on week 3 for Tee. Obviously there's a lot of season left to go and it would be great to see that spike in air yards turn into a trend, but would have been better to see him capitalize on at least one of those downfield contested catches--or if he had done anything from a YAC perspective.

Week 4 should be interesting. I'm not 100% ready to write off AJG like everyone else is, though the trend isn't looking great for him, and I think Boyd still finishes the year well ahead of the group in targets when it's all said and done (assuming AJG doesn't turn into vintage AJG). Green getting hurt or traded of course changes the entire complexion of the situation totally for Tee. Can do a lot worse with a guy people picked off waivers in the past week.

[SyNdicateZ 1,416]

1 hour ago, MBarbarian said:

@AnchorDown  The targets don't tell the whole story of Higgins breakout in week 3.  Look at the air yards.

AJ Green was getting massive air yards weeks one and two (338 AY led the entire league by a wide margin), but couldn't do anything with them.  In week 3, AJ got 6 targets, but only 45 air yards.  That massive drop in air yards wasn't by accident.  Instead of forcing long balls to him again, Burrow threw him short, low fantasy value passes, probably at the coah   

Where did those air yards go?  To Higgins - 150 air yards in week 3 alone (6th most of all receivers), and 9 more than Boyd on 4 LESS targets.

It looks like the Bengals staff may have already accepted AJ's decline and shifted the massive role they had planned for AJ over to Higgins.  If so, Higgins owners may have a legit WR1 ROS.

LOL  ...Higgins WR1 ROS? Blasphemy!

[next big thing cp84 796]

7 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

 

Great post. Interesting to think about the air yards and the shift from AJG to Tee from that approach. And yet still, those massive air yards converted into 40 receiving yards for Higgins. That's the part that concerns me--AJG didn't get it done with those opportunities, and you could argue similarly based on week 3 for Tee. Obviously there's a lot of season left to go and it would be great to see that spike in air yards turn into a trend, but would have been better to see him capitalize on at least one of those downfield contested catches--or if he had done anything from a YAC perspective.

Week 4 should be interesting. I'm not 100% ready to write off AJG like everyone else is, though the trend isn't looking great for him, and I think Boyd still finishes the year well ahead of the group in targets when it's all said and done (assuming AJG doesn't turn into vintage AJG). Green getting hurt or traded of course changes the entire complexion of the situation totally for Tee. Can do a lot worse with a guy people picked off waivers in the past week.

Think its important to note here that if you watch the highlights vs the Eagles posted earlier in this thread, Higgins had another 15 yard completion that was called back for offensive holding, and a 30 yard pass that the Eagles corner barely got his hand in at the last second to take the ball out of Higgins’ arms. 

If that holding didn’t happen and the corner doesn’t make a last ditch play, we are looking at a 7/85/2 game on 9 targets instead of 5/40/2.

Higgins looked great and will be going against team’s #2 and #3 corner. I was not a Higgins believer coming into last week, but I love the upside that’s here after last week. Sign me up. 

[SharkSwimmer 4,814]

Game flow seems likely to be in his favor.  Pretty much all the time.

[Mahomet 184]

I have Higgens and I'm excited about the future, but from what I understand CIN coaching staff told Burrow to stay away from AJ Green and Darius Slay for most of the game. Maybe this kind of usage continues and Green is a glorified decoy, but it's worth noting. Ideally, this team realizes their ceiling this year is 4-12, they ship AJ before the trade deadline to a contender, and they go all in on their young squad to see what they have. It may be in the works already based on the peripheral numbers.