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KJ Hamler 2020 Outlook

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This is good for the Broncos team but people need to pump the brakes. He's going to be getting the scraps behind Sutton, Jeudy, Fant and MGIII not too mention we still don't know if Lock is legit. I don't anticipate him being a fantasy factor in the league anytime soon. 

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@Impreza178  You posted the following in the Courtland Sutton thread: 

37 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

another tiny Penn St wr who can’t catch...deja vu 

Given that most Penn St WRs were at least 6 ft (including DaSean Hamilton, Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin) and some of them proved to be fairly adequate, I can't really figure out who you are thinking of? Deon Butler? 

Regarding the catching abilities of Hamler, I checked their game against Michigan (#25 pass defense). He had 2 TDs which were mostly deep routes, not very interesting. Here is a catch in traffic (although not super hard, but at least he held on to the ball):

404ibe.gif

Here's one that's more contested where he doesn't get it:

404iru.gif

In short, if you say "can't catch", I'm not sure, but if you tell me " this is typically the kind of guy that has got by on his speed in College but will find it a lot harder in the pros", then I totally agree.

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10 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

@Impreza178  You posted the following in the Courtland Sutton thread: 

Given that most Penn St WRs were at least 6 ft (including DaSean Hamilton, Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin) and some of them proved to be fairly adequate, I can't really figure out who you are thinking of? Deon Butler? 

Regarding the catching abilities of Hamler, I checked their game against Michigan (#25 pass defense). He had 2 TDs which were mostly deep routes, not very interesting. Here is a catch in traffic (although not super hard, but at least he held on to the ball):

404ibe.gif

Here's one that's more contested where he doesn't get it:

404iru.gif

In short, if you say "can't catch", I'm not sure, but if you tell me " this is typically the kind of guy that has got by on his speed in College but will find it a lot harder in the pros", then I totally agree.


 

I’m referring to Hamilton- el BUSTerino.   Fair enough that he’s not tiny- but he sure plays like it.    
Denver has been cursed trying to find a wr3 for many years....Hamilton,  Henderson,  Latimer, Fowler...it’s been since ole brandon stokely graced the gridiron that the broncos have seen meaningful production from that position.  
 

You can understand my frustration seeing more draft capital sunk into it, when 2 promising Olinemen were there for the taking. 

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

You can understand my frustration seeing more draft capital sunk into it, when 2 promising Olinemen were there for the taking. 

100%. I believe dynasties (in real life NFL anyway) are built on Oline and Defense. Give your own QB half a second more, give the opposing QB half a second less and suddenly the game looks a lot different. It might even allow your speedster WR to get enough separation.

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Jeudy

Sutton

Hamilton

Hamler - 4th on the chart. Dont expect much from him IMO anytime soon..

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1 hour ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Jeudy

Sutton

Hamilton

Hamler - 4th on the chart. Dont expect much from him IMO anytime soon..

 

And Fant

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Denver has been cursed trying to find a wr3 for many years....Hamilton

Because I'm a prick, I wanted to know how much Hamilton sucked as WR3. Well, first of all, he was their WR2 - with 295 yards (worst WR2 in the league). That's indeed not good for Denver, but in terms of WR3 suckage, he would still have been a below average (but not disastrous) WR3.

image.png.4770b8799923f3bde15b9bcd02d353d1.png

I understand your frustration though ;)

Edited by Boudewijn

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Because I'm a prick, I wanted to know how much Hamilton sucked as WR3. Well, first of all, he was their WR2 - with 295 yards (worst WR2 in the league). That's indeed not good for Denver, but in terms of WR3 suckage, he would still have been a below average (but not disastrous) WR3.

image.png.4770b8799923f3bde15b9bcd02d353d1.png

I understand your frustration though ;)

No, he was the 3-  even after sanders was traded before the deadline. 
 

Sutton(x), sanders(z), Hamilton(slot).  (Patrick hurt)

Sutton(x), Patrick(z), Hamilton(slot)  (post trade)

 

wouldnt be surprised to see Hamler jump him right off the bat-  he’s fallen out of favor with coaches.   Big drops and busted routes at critical times will do that.   

 

 

Edited by Impreza178

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I don’t understand the acrimony towards Hamler - yes, he dropped a ton of catchable balls his senior year.  That’s coachable and correctable at the NFL level.  And likely the main reason he was even available at the Broncos’ second pick.

His speed is otherworldly, and he plays even faster than his timed 40 - he was apparently timed at 3.93 on a 40-yard kick return.  And even the threat he poses just by being on the field will clear out the safeties for Sutton and Jeudy on intermediate routes.

Make no mistake - this is a team that’s fed up with “three yards and a cloud of dust” ground-and-pound offense.  Scangarello is gone - Shurmur is the new OC, and he loves deep passing.  The Broncos now have one of the most loaded offenses in the league from a pass-catching perspective.

Plus, Fangio loves this guy - he’s the one who pounded the table for this pick, and Elway agreed with him.

You can argue they should’ve replaced Bolles with Cleveland at LT instead with that pick - but it wouldn’t surprise me if Elway was less than enamored with his below-average measurables for the position, lack of functional strength, and lack of anchor ability.  It wouldn’t surprise me either if he ended up as a guard when all is said and done in the NFL.

Here’s a good read on Hamler if you need more convincing that he’s a good fit on the Broncos:

https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/how-wr-kj-hamler-fits-with-the-broncos

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/Article/NFL-Draft-2020-KJ-Hamler-highly-regarded-second-tier-wide-receivers-Penn-State-145174783/Amp/

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24 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I don’t understand the acrimony towards Hamler - yes, he dropped a ton of catchable balls his senior year.  That’s coachable and correctable at the NFL level.  And likely the main reason he was even available at the Broncos’ second pick.

His speed is otherworldly, and he plays even faster than his timed 40 - he was apparently timed at 3.93 on a 40-yard kick return.  And even the threat he poses just by being on the field will clear out the safeties for Sutton and Jeudy on intermediate routes.

Make no mistake - this is a team that’s fed up with “three yards and a cloud of dust” ground-and-pound offense.  Scangarello is gone - Shurmur is the new OC, and he loves deep passing.  The Broncos now have one of the most loaded offenses in the league from a pass-catching perspective.

Plus, Fangio loves this guy - he’s the one who pounded the table for this pick, and Elway agreed with him.

You can argue they should’ve replaced Bolles with Cleveland at LT instead with that pick - but it wouldn’t surprise me if Elway was less than enamored with his below-average measurables for the position, lack of functional strength, and lack of anchor ability.  It wouldn’t surprise me either if he ended up as a guard when all is said and done in the NFL.

Here’s a good read on Hamler if you need more convincing that he’s a good fit on the Broncos:

https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/how-wr-kj-hamler-fits-with-the-broncos

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/Article/NFL-Draft-2020-KJ-Hamler-highly-regarded-second-tier-wide-receivers-Penn-State-145174783/Amp/


the coachspeak oracle strikes again 👀 

 

they’ve said the same crap every time a new wr comes along.   Sooo excited....lots of talk....sleeper pick....blah blah.   
 

fool me 4 times....shame on us all 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

No, he was the 3-  even after sanders was traded before the deadline. 
 

Sutton(x), sanders(z), Hamilton(slot).  (Patrick hurt)

Sutton(x), Patrick(z), Hamilton(slot)  (post trade)

 

wouldnt be surprised to see Hamler jump him right off the bat-  he’s fallen out of favor with coaches.   Big drops and busted routes at critical times will do that.   

 

 

I think you two are looking at two different pieces of info - he's looking at #2 to mean second most yardage amongst WRs and you're looking at it positionally.

I'm not sure how often we see 11 personnel on this team.  I think we'll see a fair amount of snaps with both MGIII and Lindsay on the field at the same time, and also a fair amount Heureman, Beck, or maybe Freeman if he can convert to more of a blocking back.  

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11 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I think you two are looking at two different pieces of info - he's looking at #2 to mean second most yardage amongst WRs and you're looking at it positionally.

I'm not sure how often we see 11 personnel on this team.  I think we'll see a fair amount of snaps with both MGIII and Lindsay on the field at the same time, and also a fair amount Heureman, Beck, or maybe Freeman if he can convert to more of a blocking back.  

Shurmur is consistently very 11-personnel-heavy - given what he now has to work with in Denver, I don’t see that changing this season.

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Shurmur is consistently very 11-personnel-heavy - given what he now has to work with in Denver, I don’t see that changing this season.

You scheme to the talent, not the other way around.

MGIII and Lindsay have proven a lot in this league, Hamler hasn't, and the tackle depth is poor so they're going to need help blocking.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You scheme to the talent, not the other way around.

MGIII and Lindsay have proven a lot in this league, Hamler hasn't, and the tackle depth is poor so they're going to need help blocking.

Maybe that’s what you should do - I’m just saying that’s not what Shurmur does - and the Hamler pick in the second round basically confirms that 11 should be expected most often:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp-broncos/nfl/broncos/news/5-adjustments-to-expect-as-pat-shurmur-takes-over-broncos-offense

Edited by BMcP

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14 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Maybe that’s what you should do - I’m just saying that’s not what Shurmur does - and the Hamler pick in the second round basically confirms that 11 should be expected most often:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp-broncos/nfl/broncos/news/5-adjustments-to-expect-as-pat-shurmur-takes-over-broncos-offense

I don't know that I necessarily agree with the author.

Look at the snap count percentages for the last team that Shurmur was OC for, the 2017 Vikings.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2017-snap-counts.htm

Treadwell was out there 44% of the time, while CJ Hamm and David Morgan saw about an 18% and 35% share, respectively.

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Hamler.....special teams

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6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't know that I necessarily agree with the author.

Look at the snap count percentages for the last team that Shurmur was OC for, the 2017 Vikings.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2017-snap-counts.htm

Treadwell was out there 44% of the time, while CJ Hamm and David Morgan saw about an 18% and 35% share, respectively.

Last year, the Giants under Shurmur used 11 on 74% of the offensive snaps - more often than any team other than the Bengals.  The year before that percentage drops to 61%, which is still much more often than not.  With the Vikings the year before, he used it 56% of the time.

Basically, he’s always preferred 11 personnel - and the rate at which he’s used it has risen each year for the past three years.

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5 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't know that I necessarily agree with the author.

Look at the snap count percentages for the last team that Shurmur was OC for, the 2017 Vikings.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2017-snap-counts.htm

Treadwell was out there 44% of the time, while CJ Hamm and David Morgan saw about an 18% and 35% share, respectively.

Further on this idea...

Looking at the game by game results, I think they tell us more of a story...

Here's Morgan - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MorgDa01/fantasy/2017

And here's Treadwell - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TreaLa00/fantasy/2017

As you can see, out of the gates, it appears Shurmur WANTED to try and feature more 11 personnel.  5 out of the first 7 games, Treadwell saw at least 55% of the snaps.

However, as the games went on, he realized that it wasn't working as effectively and went to more 12 looks and 21 looks and they won.

This seems to me like probably what we'll see with the Broncos this year.  He may WANT to try and feature Hamler in the slot, but the realities of the blockers available to him at tackle will force his hand.

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Just now, BMcP said:

Last year, the Giants under Shurmur used 11 on 74% of the offensive snaps - more often than any team other than the Bengals.  The year before that percentage drops to 61%, which is still much more often than not.  With the Vikings the year before, he used it 56% of the time.

Basically, he’s always preferred 11 personnel - and the rate at which he’s used it has risen each year for the past three years.

I don't find the Giants results to be particularly relevant.

1.) He was the HC, not the OC.

2.) They were TERRIBLE on defense during his tenure.  Last year they gave up 28.2 points per game, 3rd worst in the league.  The year prior they were slightly better at 25.2 or 10th worst.

So of course they were in passing formations quite a bit.

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I don't find the Giants results to be particularly relevant.

1.) He was the HC, not the OC.

2.) They were TERRIBLE on defense during his tenure.  Last year they gave up 28.2 points per game, 3rd worst in the league.  The year prior they were slightly better at 25.2 or 10th worst.

So of course they were in passing formations quite a bit.

Shurmur was the one calling the plays in NY - not his OC.
 

Look, I’m not saying I know what the future holds here - and I really don’t want to derail the thread further with personnel discussions.  All I can tell you is that Shurmur has had a career-long tendency to favor 11 personnel.  And I can’t really envision a scenario in which they will allow their second-round pick and primary field-stretcher to stand idly on the sidelines most of the time, regardless of their tackle play.

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Just now, BMcP said:

 All I can tell you is that Shurmur has had a career-long tendency to favor 11 personnel.

And I'm telling you the numbers don't bare that out.

Departing from the 2017 Vikings, he was also the OC for the Eagles from 2013-2015.  Here are the snap counts from those outfits.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2013-snap-counts.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2014-snap-counts.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2015-snap-counts.htm

In both 14 and 15, Celek and Ertz had over a 50% snap count share.  In 13, Ertz and and Casey combined for 54% share and and Celek saw 76%.

The reason the numbers were so high from the Giants was that their defense was bad and they had to pass.  Every team he's had with a good defense, eventually they found their way to less WRs on the field to support the running game and the defense.

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6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

And I'm telling you the numbers don't bare that out.

Departing from the 2017 Vikings, he was also the OC for the Eagles from 2013-2015.  Here are the snap counts from those outfits.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2013-snap-counts.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2014-snap-counts.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2015-snap-counts.htm

In both 14 and 15, Celek and Ertz had over a 50% snap count share.  In 13, Ertz and and Casey combined for 54% share and and Celek saw 76%.

The reason the numbers were so high from the Giants was that their defense was bad and they had to pass.  Every team he's had with a good defense, eventually they found their way to less WRs on the field to support the running game and the defense.

As mentioned in the article I posted a link to above, Chip Kelly was the one mainly responsible for masterminding the offense during 2013-15 - not Shurmur.

Going back that far also glosses over just how much the league as a whole has transitioned to more usage of 11-personnel over the last few years.  I’d recommend this article which sums up that trend nicely: 

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-the-rise-of-11-personnel-in-the-nfl

We should probably agree to disagree at this point.

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Just now, BMcP said:

As mentioned in the article I posted a link to above, Chip Kelly was the one mainly responsible for masterminding the offense during 2013-15 - not Shurmur.

Going back that far also glosses over just how much the league as a whole has transitioned to more usage of 11-personnel over the last few years.  I’d recommend this article which sums up that trend nicely: 

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-the-rise-of-11-personnel-in-the-nfl

We should probably agree to disagree at this point.

I'm cognizant of a more consistent usage of 3 and 4 WR sets along the NFL, but you said, "Shurmur has had a career-long tendency to favor 11 personnel."

It just seems to me like you're highlighting the first half of the season with the Vikings and his tenure with the Giants while ignoring the context, that the Vikings eventually shifted to more base packages, and the Giants defense and the Broncos defense will (hopefully) bear few similarities.  

Just now, BMcP said:

We should probably agree to disagree at this point.

That's ok.  I'm happy for the discussion because it got me to research and learn some stuff.  I can see you have an idea for what the Broncos are going to look like and this type of research isn't going to change your mind.  All good.

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4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm cognizant of a more consistent usage of 3 and 4 WR sets along the NFL, but you said, "Shurmur has had a career-long tendency to favor 11 personnel."

It just seems to me like you're highlighting the first half of the season with the Vikings and his tenure with the Giants while ignoring the context, that the Vikings eventually shifted to more base packages, and the Giants defense and the Broncos defense will (hopefully) bear few similarities.  

That's ok.  I'm happy for the discussion because it got me to research and learn some stuff.  I can see you have an idea for what the Broncos are going to look like and this type of research isn't going to change your mind.  All good.

I’ve enjoyed it, too.  I’m always of an open mind - and I agree they have a ton of players right now who are going to require some very creative handling - including a $&@/-ton of TEs.

It might have been lost somewhere in the discussion, but I’m by no means expecting them to be among the league leaders in 11 - just expecting them to use it more often than not.

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