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KJ Hamler 2020 Outlook

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This dude ain't doing anything any time soon barring injury to Sutton or Jeudy. Should be totally off the redraft radar and I'm not even a fan in dynasty.

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18 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

This dude ain't doing anything any time soon barring injury to Sutton or Jeudy. Should be totally off the redraft radar and I'm not even a fan in dynasty.

What makes you say so?

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37 minutes ago, BMcP said:

What makes you say so?

 

What point specifically are you referring to.

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1 minute ago, paulwall29 said:

 

What point specifically are you referring to.

The dynasty point - I don’t expect much from him in re-draft.  But I do think he has DeSean Jackson-esque potential.

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

The dynasty point - I don’t expect much from him in re-draft.  But I do think he has DeSean Jackson-esque potential.

 

Horrendous landing spot in Denver with 2 young stud receivers in Sutton and Jeudy and a potentially elite tight end in Fant. Where are the targets going to come from? If you want to wait 3 years for the Broncos to potentially move on from Sutton be my guest. Not the way I like to spend my draft capital.

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6 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Horrendous landing spot in Denver with 2 young stud receivers in Sutton and Jeudy and a potentially elite tight end in Fant. Where are the targets going to come from? If you want to wait 3 years for the Broncos to potentially move on from Sutton be my guest. Not the way I like to spend my draft capital.

He was never going to make it as a perimeter wideout, so I wouldn’t blame those guys for sapping his production.  Going to a team that committed second-round capital on him means he’ll be used - and used frequently.  Denver was one of his best landing spots, particularly based on what they’ve been saying about instituting a more aggressive offense.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He was never going to make it as a perimeter wideout, so I wouldn’t blame those guys for sapping his production.  Going to a team that committed second-round capital on him means he’ll be used - and used frequently.  Denver was one of his best landing spots, particularly based on what they’ve been saying about instituting a more aggressive offense.

 

He will play inside out, Jeudy can also play the slot. He was drafted to fill a specific role as a field stretcher, I'm not denying that but, again, it is simple math. You can go and do it and tell me where the targets are going to come from. Not to mention in his first 2 seasons, at a minimum, he will be playing in an offense with a running back that has had at least 55 targets every year in his career aside from his rookie year. Lindsay and Freeman combined for 108 targets last season so it is likely that Gordon will have a significant passing game role, soaking up additional targets. Again, present a case to me of where the volume is going to come from for Hamler. 

Edited by paulwall29

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32 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

He will play inside out, Jeudy can also play the slot. He was drafted to fill a specific role as a field stretcher, I'm not denying that but, again, it is simple math. You can go and do it and tell me where the targets are going to come from. Not to mention in his first 2 seasons, at a minimum, he will be playing in an offense with a running back that has had at least 55 targets every year in his career aside from his rookie year. Lindsay and Freeman combined for 108 targets last season so it is likely that Gordon will have a significant passing game role, soaking up additional targets. Again, present a case to me of where the volume is going to come from for Hamler. 

I can’t argue on behalf of volume.  Heck, Vaughn will have more volume than Hamler in year one. But he is a very good receiver, on a good offense, with a path to DeSean Jackson-type production.  He’s not one to ignore in keeper leagues.

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I can’t argue on behalf of volume.  Heck, Vaughn will have more volume than Hamler in year one. But he is a very good receiver, on a good offense, with a path to DeSean Jackson-type production.  He’s not one to ignore in keeper leagues.

 

Sorry man, but this is not an apples to apples comparison to DeSean Jackson. D-Jax was drafted to be the Eagles number one receiver. He led the team in targets in his rookie season and the next best receiver was a guy named Kevin Curtis. In his second season he led the team in targets and the next best receiver was Brent Celek. In his third season Jeremy Maclin broke out and out-targeted D-Jax (by 10 targets) and his numbers slightly dipped but he was still far and away the number 2 targeted receiver on the team. In his 4th season he once again led the team in targets. in 2012 he was on pace to lead the team in targets again but got hurt and Maclin led the team. 2013 Maclin missed the entire season and D-Jax dominated targets and Riley Cooper was the next best receiver on the team. All of his production on the Eagles came as either the clear cut number 1 target on the team (before Jeremy Maclin entered the fold), the 1B to Jeremy Maclin (in one season) and when Maclin missed an entire season. Brent Celek was the next best pass catcher on these teams. 

This is not remotely close to the type of situation that Hamler will be in. DeSean was drafted by the Eagles to be their alpha and then was essentially the Batman to Maclin's Robin for 2 seasons. If Hamler only had to compete for targets with either Sutton or Jeudy I would be all for him, but that is not his situation. Then you have to add on a potentially elite TE who will probably out target him for at least his first 2-3 seasons (something D-Jax never had to deal with) and that is just not a winning formula for fantasy barring injury to other players on the team. I get that you like Hamler's talent and believe he is a good player, which he is, but he did not land in a good situation for fantasy and has very little chance of putting up D-Jax level production any time soon.

Again, present an argument to me for where the target and production is going to come from but until then it is silly to say he has D-Jax upside when his situation isn't remotely comparable to D-Jax's situation when he was drafted.

Edited by paulwall29
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I think the [rookie] Mecole Hardman comp makes sense at this point. Too much talent ahead of him to be relevant in redraft, but if the cookie crumbles the right way the dynasty value could be there. Lock has a cannon, so here's to hoping for a few deep shots every game. Probably more of a DFS filler in year one. +++ for return yardage leagues

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Sorry man, but this is not an apples to apples comparison to DeSean Jackson. D-Jax was drafted to be the Eagles number one receiver. He led the team in targets in his rookie season and the next best receiver was a guy named Kevin Curtis. In his second season he led the team in targets and the next best receiver was Brent Celek. In his third season Jeremy Maclin broke out and out-targeted D-Jax (by 10 targets) and his numbers slightly dipped but he was still far and away the number 2 targeted receiver on the team. In his 4th season he once again led the team in targets. in 2012 he was on pace to lead the team in targets again but got hurt and Maclin led the team. 2013 Maclin missed the entire season and D-Jax dominated targets and Riley Cooper was the next best receiver on the team. All of his production on the Eagles came as either the clear cut number 1 target on the team (before Jeremy Maclin entered the fold), the 1B to Jeremy Maclin (in one season) and when Maclin missed an entire season. Brent Celek was the next best pass catcher on these teams. 

This is not remotely close to the type of situation that Hamler will be in. DeSean was drafted by the Eagles to be their alpha and then was essentially the Batman to Maclin's Robin for 2 seasons. If Hamler only had to compete for targets with either Sutton or Jeudy I would be all for him, but that is not his situation. Then you have to add on a potentially elite TE who will probably out target him for at least his first 2-3 seasons (something D-Jax never had to deal with) and that is just not a winning formula for fantasy barring injury to other players on the team. I get that you like Hamler's talent and believe he is a good player, which he is, but he did not land in a good situation for fantasy and has very little chance of putting up D-Jax level production any time soon.

Again, present an argument to me for where the target and production is going to come from but until then it is silly to say he has D-Jax upside when his situation isn't remotely comparable to D-Jax's situation when he was drafted.

Paul: thanks for the history lesson - I enjoyed the walk down memory lane of Eagles receivers of years past.  I was actually picturing something more along the lines of D-Jax’s production on TB with Fitzmagic.  I guess I should’ve made it more clear - but I thought given the context of what I stated earlier (i.e., that Hamler wouldn’t be fantasy relevant as early as this season) it was pretty obvious that I wasn’t picturing Hamler as the primary wideout in Denver coming out of college.  I’ll do a better job to avoid silly statements from here on out.

Edited by BMcP
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Good landing spot for him. 

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7 hours ago, BMcP said:

Paul: thanks for the history lesson - I enjoyed the walk down memory lane of Eagles receivers of years past.  I was actually picturing something more along the lines of D-Jax’s production on TB with Fitzmagic.  I guess I should’ve made it more clear - but I thought given the context of what I stated earlier (i.e., that Hamler wouldn’t be fantasy relevant as early as this season) it was pretty obvious that I wasn’t picturing Hamler as the primary wideout in Denver coming out of college.  I’ll do a better job to avoid silly statements from here on out.

 

If you are looking for the 50/700/3 lines that D-Jax put up in Tampa then KJ is your man because that will be his upside playing with Sutton/Jeudy/Fant.

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1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

 

If you are looking for the 50/700/3 lines that D-Jax put up in Tampa then KJ is your man because that will be his upside playing with Sutton/Jeudy/Fant.

If I’m looking for that production pace over the course of a full season, he’s definitely my man.  And the 19 yards per reception wouldn’t be unwelcome, either.

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2 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

If you are looking for the 50/700/3 lines that D-Jax put up in Tampa then KJ is your man because that will be his upside playing with Sutton/Jeudy/Fant.


or you can just draft DJax

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, joshua18 said:


or you can just draft DJax

id take the young burner over a 33-34 year old coming back from a core inj.

either way its a desperation play as it is right now with the likely target share

Edited by colepenhagen
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Just now, Rickg1025 said:

With Sutton done for the year, is Hamler worth an add?

Yes

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Targets in game 1 + Driskel & Lock both take deep shots (stats say so with Driskel and Lock seems to be willing to sling it, O line permitting) = worth a shot.

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Was pretty impressed with his route running in the game against PIT. Path to success in year 1 is there without Sutton. Wouldn’t be surprised if he gathers around the same number of targets as Jeudy as the season progresses. 

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15 hours ago, EWV1 said:

Driskel & Lock & Bortles all take deep shots 

 

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Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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