OrangeCrush

Raheem Mostert 2020 Outlook

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Some sites have Mostert ADP at 50.  Im not willing to gamble he makes it to pick 48.

To me he is clearly the best back after the Aaron Jones, Ekeler tier

Also, I like Terry Mc, Chark, Lockett as much as Evans, Golladay, amari   In my my there is not more that 1/2pts per week difference between them.  I'd rather lock up Mostert and pick from the Chark/Terry WR tier at 4/5

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12 minutes ago, jbarretta said:

Some sites have Mostert ADP at 50.  Im not willing to gamble he makes it to pick 48.

To me he is clearly the best back after the Aaron Jones, Ekeler tier

Also, I like Terry Mc, Chark, Lockett as much as Evans, Golladay, amari   In my my there is not more that 1/2pts per week difference between them.  I'd rather lock up Mostert and pick from the Chark/Terry WR tier at 4/5

I respect you going after your guy. Best of luck.
Although my only rebuttal is I believe Golladay is better than all the WR’s you just mentioned for fantasy purposes, if he’s available at 24/25 I strongly advocate taking him with one of your picks 

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2 hours ago, jbarretta said:

Some sites have Mostert ADP at 50.  Im not willing to gamble he makes it to pick 48.

To me he is clearly the best back after the Aaron Jones, Ekeler tier

Also, I like Terry Mc, Chark, Lockett as much as Evans, Golladay, amari   In my my there is not more that 1/2pts per week difference between them.  I'd rather lock up Mostert and pick from the Chark/Terry WR tier at 4/5

 

How can you put Terry and Chark with Golladay? 

Haskins and Minshew vs. Stafford, Brady, and Dak? 

 

Sorry...but give me the WR's with strong QB's on good-great offenses all day.

 

Big fan of going after your guys though. Mosetart is moving up for me. 

 

 

 

 

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  • How can you put Terry and Chark with Golladay? 

Haskins and Minshew vs. Stafford, Brady, and Dak? 

 

Not to say their word is gospel but footballguys has the following projections for my league scoring system

Golladay 210 points

Evans 207

Cooper 208

VS

Terry Mc=193

DK Met= 193

Chark=188

 

The difference is 1-2 points a week on average.  All of these guys mentioned can single handedly win you weeks.   Maybe Golladay might be worth it because he has 140 target 1400 yard upside and is the clear #1 on the team.    Evans and Cooper are no different than the next tier IMO

 

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34 minutes ago, FooserX said:

 

 

How can you put Terry and Chark with Golladay? 

Haskins and Minshew vs. Stafford, Brady, and Dak? 

 

Sorry...but give me the WR's with strong QB's on good-great offenses all day.

 

Big fan of going after your guys though. Mosetart is moving up for me. 

 

This.  Golladay is clearly the better player than both and has the better qb (Stafford when healthy) throwing to him.  I would rank them Golladay, Chark and McLaurin.  I'm not as high on McLaurin as others because he has Dwayne Haskins throwing to him.

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, EWV1 said:

Mostert is discount Drake?

image.png.d80bce0ccb8373522c3b071f021bfd02.png

If Mostert is given enough carries to open the season and has a game or 2 like the 200+ yard explosion he had last year then I can see the 49ers making Mostert the clear lead guy.  But as it is, they still have Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon to share carries.  I think that Mostert is the ideal fantasy rb3 this year with the potential for more.

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On paper the 49ers have a very nice schedule. Add their wr injuries, I think they will rely heavily on the run again this year. Mostert is growing on me, even if he has 55-60% of the backfield he should be in for a great year. And if somehow he wins the job outright, he’s a league winner

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Posted (edited)

Could see him having a 2005 Mike Anderson type season. 215-220 carries 1050 10... I think SF will run a lot 

Edited by OrangeCrush

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4 hours ago, sjm76 said:

If Mostert is given enough carries to open the season and has a game or 2 like the 200+ yard explosion he had last year then I can see the 49ers making Mostert the clear lead guy.  But as it is, they still have Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon to share carries.  I think that Mostert is the ideal fantasy rb3 this year with the potential for more.

No offense, I just have no idea why people are concerned about those two. McKinnon was really never that good and hasn’t played in two years. Coleman has never stood out outside of a few blow up games. 

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1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

No offense, I just have no idea why people are concerned about those two. McKinnon was really never that good and hasn’t played in two years. Coleman has never stood out outside of a few blow up games. 


great point, people act like this is some absolutely stacked backfield. Coleman and McKinnon are nothing more than average talents at the position. Both have had years of fantasy hype and nothing other than a few brief flashes here and there to show for it.  What I saw of Mostert last year looks better than anything I’ve ever seen from those two.

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5 hours ago, cheezor42 said:


great point, people act like this is some absolutely stacked backfield. Coleman and McKinnon are nothing more than average talents at the position. Both have had years of fantasy hype and nothing other than a few brief flashes here and there to show for it.  What I saw of Mostert last year looks better than anything I’ve ever seen from those two.

Because the concern is that Mostert isn’t all that much better than either of those guys. Shanahan can plug in anyone at the position and they’ll produce so if the talent discrepancy isn’t much it can be an ugly RBBC.

McKinnon has been overrated for some reason pretty much his entire career and while Coleman is a solid NFL RB he certainly isn’t anything special. That being said, I don’t think Mostert is either. It’s great that any RB can put up stats in that offense but the work split is a legitimate concern. Part of the reason why I’m not all too interested at Mosterts ADP.

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I think it's a common misconception I've seen a lot here that Shanahan can plug anyone in at RB and they will produce. That really hasn't been the case during his time in SF.

 

2017 - Carlos Hyde got the most carries and had 3.9 ypc

2018 - Breida had 153 carries at 5.3 ypc, Alfred Morris had 111 carries at 3.9 ypc

2019 - Mostert had 137 carries at 5.6 ypc, Breida had 123 carries at 5.1 ypc, Coleman had 137 carries at 4.0

 

He clearly has some RBs he can get more out of in his system, it's not a situation where he can just plug in some random player and have an efficient run game. 

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Everytime he gets the ball he rips off chunk yardage bc he's too fast. Had he not broken his arm a couple years ago I think he would've taken over alot sooner. He was clearly the best option they've had all the way back to then. It's tough to pick between him and Hunt for me personally

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1 hour ago, scheibler said:

Everytime he gets the ball he rips off chunk yardage bc he's too fast. Had he not broken his arm a couple years ago I think he would've taken over alot sooner. He was clearly the best option they've had all the way back to then. It's tough to pick between him and Hunt for me personally

Many times at the end of last season and into the playoffs Coleman would start and get his 2-3 yard runs. In comes Raheem and starts slashing off first downs. Nothing changed other then the RB and the yards gained. If Kyle just says F it we are paying him lets use him, he could have a monster season. 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Because the concern is that Mostert isn’t  that much better than either of those guys. Shanahan can plug in anyone at the position and they’ll produce so if the talent discrepancy isn’t much it can be an ugly RBBC.

McKinnon has been overrated for some reason pretty much his entire career and while Coleman is a solid NFL RB he certainly isn’t anything special. That being said, I don’t think Mostert is either. It’s great that any RB can put up sta that offense but the work split is a legitimate concern. Part of the reason why I’m not all too interested at Mosterts AD

 

How do you all view Mostert's upside to someone like Ronald Jones or Can Akers?

Edited by ponchsox

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2 hours ago, ponchsox said:

 

How do you all view Mostert's upside to someone like Ronald Jones or Can Akers?

I mean, they all technically have a lot of upside because they’re in great offenses. Akers is the most talented of the bunch though so I view him as most likely to reach that upside while Mostert has the safest floor out of the 3. I’m still not sold on Jones. 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Because the concern is that Mostert isn’t all that much better than either of those guys. Shanahan can plug in anyone at the position and they’ll produce so if the talent discrepancy isn’t much it can be an ugly RBBC.

McKinnon has been overrated for some reason pretty much his entire career and while Coleman is a solid NFL RB he certainly isn’t anything special. That being said, I don’t think Mostert is either. It’s great that any RB can put up stats in that offense but the work split is a legitimate concern. Part of the reason why I’m not all too interested at Mosterts ADP.

 

I really don't understand that concern.  Mostert was a RB4 on that team going in to last season and it was injuries and ineffectiveness from Breida/Coleman that led to Mostert getting more touches.  But now we're to believe that very same guy who didn't get it done last season is now suddenly a threat?  Not in my book.  Mostert ran 1.6 more yards per carry over Coleman behind the same exact O-line.  The only wild card in my eyes is McKinnon but his knees are held together with rubber bands and Flextape at this point so I'm not putting much stock into him suddenly becoming a franchise RB.  His numbers pre-injuries were also nothing to write home about either.

Edited by cizastro
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4 hours ago, scheibler said:

Everytime he gets the ball he rips off chunk yardage bc he's too fast. Had he not broken his arm a couple years ago I think he would've taken over alot sooner. He was clearly the best option they've had all the way back to then. It's tough to pick between him and Hunt for me personally

 

Yah, I don't get it.  Trust your eyes.  This dude was far and away their best back.  Coleman had the opportunity to make his mark in Atlanta and he couldn't do it.  He's a marginal NFL talent and they'll use him just enough to keep Mostert fresh.  

He might not have the complete workhorse role because Shanny will rotate guys in, but he's easily the best RB and will do major damage on 15-18 carries per game.  

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10 minutes ago, SpartanEric said:

 

Yah, I don't get it.  Trust your eyes.  This dude was far and away their best back.  Coleman had the opportunity to make his mark in Atlanta and he couldn't do it.  He's a marginal NFL talent and they'll use him just enough to keep Mostert fresh.  

He might not have the complete workhorse role because Shanny will rotate guys in, but he's easily the best RB and will do major damage on 15-18 carries per game.  

Mostert got 15+ carries exactly one time all of last year. So I have no idea where the assumption comes from that he will be getting 15-18 per game. 

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In 5 games in December(when Mostert took over) he averaged 12.8 carries a game. Can anybody who watches their games explain why SF seems to run so few offensive plays a game? I'm just adding up pass and rush attempts from the box scores but maybe I'm missing something(I am slow sometimes). Granted, I'm not doing a deep dive into this and examining the league average or lots of other teams tendencies but it seems low to me

 

12/1 vs BAL : 50 plays (61 plays for BAL)

12/8 vs NO : 59 plays (68 for NO)

12/15 vs ATL : 61 plays (59 for ATL)

12/21 vs LAR : 50 plays (70 for LAR)

12/29 vs SEA : 46 plays (70 for SEA)

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37 minutes ago, owenmills said:

In 5 games in December(when Mostert took over) he averaged 12.8 carries a game. Can anybody who watches their games explain why SF seems to run so few offensive plays a game? I'm just adding up pass and rush attempts from the box scores but maybe I'm missing something(I am slow sometimes). Granted, I'm not doing a deep dive into this and examining the league average or lots of other teams tendencies but it seems low to me

 

12/1 vs BAL : 50 plays (61 plays for BAL)

12/8 vs NO : 59 plays (68 for NO)

12/15 vs ATL : 61 plays (59 for ATL)

12/21 vs LAR : 50 plays (70 for LAR)

12/29 vs SEA : 46 plays (70 for SEA)

 

I believe since SF runs so much , it milks the clock constantly. Dominant defense means they’re usually in the game = less throwing & hurry up offense.  Hence less offensive snaps overall 

Just off the top of my head, did no research or data comps

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51 minutes ago, owenmills said:

In 5 games in December(when Mostert took over) he averaged 12.8 carries a game. Can anybody who watches their games explain why SF seems to run so few offensive plays a game? I'm just adding up pass and rush attempts from the box scores but maybe I'm missing something(I am slow sometimes). Granted, I'm not doing a deep dive into this and examining the league average or lots of other teams tendencies but it seems low to me

 

12/1 vs BAL : 50 plays (61 plays for BAL)

12/8 vs NO : 59 plays (68 for NO)

12/15 vs ATL : 61 plays (59 for ATL)

12/21 vs LAR : 50 plays (70 for LAR)

12/29 vs SEA : 46 plays (70 for SEA)


They want to run the ball and play great defense. When that works, it leads to slower pace and fewer plays per game.

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47 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

They want to run the ball and play great defense. When that works, it leads to slower pace and fewer plays per game.

Makes sense. It's got to be more than just being run heavy. They must be intentionally slowing the tempo of the game down. Probably even moreso when they get a lead.

Anyways, I like Mostert but this offense seems like it will help him and hold him back simultaneously. 

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Posted (edited)

I read that the starting fb Kyle Juszczyk, who is arguably the best fb in the league, may miss some games which isn't good for the 49ers rb's.

Edited by sjm76

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