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Miles Sanders 2020 Outlook

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Sure sounds like the addition of Hyde is coming, def not ideal...but will knock Sanders' ADP down to a more profitable area too.

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14 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Sure sounds like the addition of Hyde is coming, def not ideal...but will knock Sanders' ADP down to a more profitable area too.

Heck yeah.  If signing soon-to-be-30 Hyde is their big FA splash, with Scott and Clement in tow, I’ll take that discount all day.

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Posted (edited)

Hyde would be the 2down thumper

plus goal lines every now and then

Edited by SyNdicateZ

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Eagles need a short yardage and early down thumper, so the Hyde signing makes sense. He wouldn't cut significantly into anything Sanders does. I expect Sanders' role to expand this season as well.

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57 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Heck yeah.  If signing soon-to-be-30 Hyde is their big FA splash, with Scott and Clement in tow, I’ll take that discount all day.

 

i love the discount on draft day, but the economics of this discount hurt: hyde may take 5-10 touches away from miles sanders per game.

19 minutes ago, devaster said:

He wouldn't cut significantly into anything Sanders does. I expect Sanders' role to expand this season as well.

 

sanders proved last season that his talent is remarkable, and the eagles would definitely benefit from using him more often.

that said, when hyde was cut from the chiefs everyone wrote him off. but he looked good on the texans. i mean, hyde looked surprisingly good at times. if the eagles enter into a mindset of resting sanders, hyde will be a 5-to-10 touch thorn in the side of all sanders owners.

ForsakenAggressiveChipmunk-size_restrict 

BitterFilthyKodiakbear-size_restricted.g 

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5 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

i love the discount on draft day, but the economics of this discount hurt: hyde may take 5-10 touches away from miles sanders per game.

 

sanders proved last season that his talent is remarkable, and the eagles would definitely benefit from using him more often.

that said, when hyde was cut from the chiefs everyone wrote him off. but he looked good on the texans. i mean, hyde looked surprisingly good at times. if the eagles enter into a mindset of resting sanders, hyde will be a 5-to-10 touch thorn in the side of all sanders owners.

ForsakenAggressiveChipmunk-size_restrict 

BitterFilthyKodiakbear-size_restricted.g 

Whoever it is - Hyde, Scott, Clement, what have you - Pederson has a plan for how much he wants to use Sanders.  His value won’t hinge on hiring a nearly-30-year-old to join the room.

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Hyde signing will Destroy Sanders ' fantasy RB1 Glory this year. Hyde was good last year.

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

It is pure delusion if you don’t think that Hyde heavily cuts into Sanders’ production and upside.

 

Ajayi in Philly was averaging 11.5 carries per game in that role. Howard was averaging 12.0 carries per game in Philly in that role. Hyde has averaged almost 15.0 carries per game in his last 5 years in the league since his rocky rookie season. Just this last season Hyde averaged over 15.0 carries per game, and ran at 4.4 ypc. 
 

Now I’m a lifelong Niners fan and can tell you Hyde is totally limited in his abilities, but what he does do he does well enough, and that is what he will be asked to do in Philly. I expect him to average AT LEAST as many carries as Ajayi/Howard were in this Philly offense at about 11.5-12.0 per game, and honestly closer to his career average of 15.0. But let’s say, to steelman and bolster the argument of Sanders’ truthers, that Hyde gets at the low end of that spectrum of projections at just 12.0 carries per game, and receives negligible targets - just desperation dump offs, say 1.0 per game. That there is still 192 carries and 16 targets.

 

So how does that low end projection affect Sanders? Well last year the carries were split 180 Sanders, 120 Howard(in 10 games), 60 Scott, 30 other. 390 total.

 

And targets for RBs split 60 Sanders, 15 Howard, 25 Scott, 10 other. 110 total.
 

The depth chart now is potentially Sanders, Hyde, Scott, other. So here is how I see the touches distributed, even if we bump up the total volume of them 10% or so to further strengthen the impossibly weak positions of the Sanders’ truthers, here are some touch projections:

 

Sanders - 160 carries, 80 targets

Hyde - 190 carries, 20 targets

Scott - 50 carries, 20 targets

Other - 30 carries, 10 targets

Total - 430 carries, 130 targets

 

Even stretching Sanders’ efficiency and TD scoring potential to the max, this pretty much stops the hype entirely on him being a possible RB1. 

Edited by LostAtSea
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7 minutes ago, LostAtSea said:

It is pure delusion if you don’t think that Hyde heavily cuts into Sanders’ production and upside.

 

Ajayi in Philly was averaging 11.5 carries per game in that role. Howard was averaging 12.0 carries per game in Philly in that role. Hyde has averaged almost 15.0 carries per game in his last 5 years in the league since his rocky rookie season. Just this last season Hyde averaged over 15.0 carries per game, and ran at 4.4 ypc. 
 

Now I’m a lifelong Niners fan and can tell you Hyde is totally limited in his abilities, but what he does do he does well enough, and that is what he will be asked to do in Philly. I expect him to average AT LEAST as many carries as Ajayi/Howard were in this Philly offense at about 11.5-12.0 per game, and honestly closer to his career average of 15.0. But let’s say, to steelman and bolster the argument of Sanders’ truthers, that Hyde gets at the low end of that spectrum of projections at just 12.0 carries per game, and receives negligible targets - just desperation dump offs, say 1.0 per game. That there is still 192 carries and 16 targets.

 

So how does that low end projection affect Sanders? Well last year the carries were split 180 Sanders, 120 Howard(in 10 games), 60 Scott, 30 other. 390 total.

 

And targets for RBs split 60 Sanders, 15 Howard, 25 Scott, 10 other. 110 total.
 

The depth chart now is potentially Sanders, Hyde, Scott, other. So here is how I see the touches distributed, even if we bump up the total volume of them 10% or so to further strengthen the impossibly weak positions of the Sanders’ truthers, here are some touch projections:

 

Sanders - 160 carries, 80 targets

Hyde - 190 carries, 20 targets

Scott - 50 carries, 20 targets

Other - 30 carries, 10 targets

Total - 430 carries, 130 targets

 

Even stretching Sanders’ efficiency and TD scoring potential to the max, this pretty much stops the hype entirely on him being a possible RB1. 

Ajayi had all of 10 rushing attempts in three games with Sanders on the roster last year, after he had established himself.  I’d envision them using Hyde in spots, mainly to spell Sanders.  But I can’t see him siphoning meaningful value from him over the course of a season.

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14 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Whoever it is - Hyde, Scott, Clement, what have you - Pederson has a plan for how much he wants to use Sanders.  His value won’t hinge on hiring a nearly-30-year-old to join the room.

 

we're not talking frank gore or shady, neither of whom looked good last year. hyde actually looked really good at times. take a look at his highlights. maybe it was just a "something to prove" situation after getting dumped by the chiefs. either way, i'm thinking he's cutting into our sanders cake for a slice.

14 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Hyde signing will Destroy Sanders ' fantasy RB1 Glory this year. Hyde was good last year.

 

i think "destroy" is a little heavy, but i agree with the sentiment behind your post. i can see hyde cutting into some production, where sanders could have had outstanding RB1 numbers but instead lands at RB2. other games will be glorious.

11 minutes ago, LostAtSea said:

It is pure delusion if you don’t think that Hyde heavily cuts into Sanders’ production and upside. [...]

Even stretching Sanders’ efficiency and TD scoring potential to the max, this pretty much stops the hype entirely on him being a possible RB1. 

 

as @ST. STEVEN and BMcP mention, i'm still riding this as "sanders at a discount." i mean really, if the eagles signed no one, we'd be looking at sanders' ADP climbing into ROUND 2. 

like your post implies, the discount is costly in production. 

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I think people might have been thinking Sanders' 2020 season would be like the last few games in 2019. And I don't think that was going to be his kind of season-long workload at all. I still view him as more of a RB2 with upside and borderline RB1.

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

I think people might have been thinking Sanders' 2020 season would be like the last few games in 2019. And I don't think that was going to be his kind of season-long workload at all. I still view him as more of a RB2 with upside and borderline RB1.

 

Agree- Hyde will be annoying. I learned my lesson of writing Hyde off when I was all aboard the Duke Johnson train...that train was basically flex PPR all year.

Sanders...definitely RB2 with RB1 sprinkle weeks, but you can't take him in the top-10. Not as long as there's a credible thumper in the backfield.

Question is...why trade Jordan Howard and replace him with Hyde, someone who is significantly older? Howard was on a cheaper rookie deal? Now that makes no sense. 

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21 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Agree- Hyde will be annoying. I learned my lesson of writing Hyde off when I was all aboard the Duke Johnson train...that train was basically flex PPR all year.

Sanders...definitely RB2 with RB1 sprinkle weeks, but you can't take him in the top-10. Not as long as there's a credible thumper in the backfield.

Question is...why trade Jordan Howard and replace him with Hyde, someone who is significantly older? Howard was on a cheaper rookie deal? Now that makes no sense. 

If this signing repels him into the RB2 ranks, I’ll take it: he’s going to see a ton of receiving work.  I’ll take that trade-off even if it means he sees fewer carries.  Hyde is a downright horrible receiver and always has been.

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58 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Agree- Hyde will be annoying. I learned my lesson of writing Hyde off when I was all aboard the Duke Johnson train...that train was basically flex PPR all year.

Sanders...definitely RB2 with RB1 sprinkle weeks, but you can't take him in the top-10. Not as long as there's a credible thumper in the backfield.

Question is...why trade Jordan Howard and replace him with Hyde, someone who is significantly older? Howard was on a cheaper rookie deal? Now that makes no sense. 

Howard was no longer on a rookie deal.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

Howard was no longer on a rookie deal.

 

Very fair- Howard is at a $5M AAV right now which is pretty fair. However, what will Hyde cost? $3M? Can't see Hyde destroying his body for the veteran minimum. 

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9 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Very fair- Howard is at a $5M AAV right now which is pretty fair. However, what will Hyde cost? $3M? Can't see Hyde destroying his body for the veteran minimum. 

Hyde needs to familiarize himself with the vet min.

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This is the perfect compliment to Sanders.   In no way is Hyde going to take the lead role, and he is most certainly the relief for Sanders,    Hyde can pass block a bit as well.

 

Sanders is in a great position this year.  All Aboard   🚂 🚃 🚃 🚃 🚋

 

 

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Hyde is going to have a poor mans Frank Gore type journeyman career isn't he?

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This is just like when people thought the signing of Lesean McCoy was going to have no impact on Damien Williams last year.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

This is just like when people thought the signing of Lesean McCoy was going to have no impact on Damien Williams last year.

Damien Williams is a UDFA who's already been cut and has never passed 500 yards rushing in his career. And also McCoy really didnt hurt him any more than one of their other RB bums would.

I still like Sanders as a borderline RB1 with heavy receiving work. This insider quote doesnt particularly scare me:

"They want to sign a veteran running back," Caplan said. "They're not looking for a scat back, they want a power back who could probably handle -- if Sanders can't play -- they like to get a guy who can handle 12-to-15 carries. They'd like that back to have better versatility and they'd like a guy that could give Sanders a spell during the game." (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/eagles-showing-interest-in-carlos-hyde-as-they-seek-veteran-running-back-per-report/)

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

This is just like when people thought the signing of Lesean McCoy was going to have no impact on Damien Williams last year.

It did... just not in the Playoffs

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1 hour ago, pushaZ said:

I still like Sanders as a borderline RB1 with heavy receiving work. This insider quote doesnt particularly scare me:

"They want to sign a veteran running back," Caplan said. "They're not looking for a scat back, they want a power back who could probably handle -- if Sanders can't play -- they like to get a guy who can handle 12-to-15 carries. They'd like that back to have better versatility and they'd like a guy that could give Sanders a spell during the game." (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/eagles-showing-interest-in-carlos-hyde-as-they-seek-veteran-running-back-per-report/)

Yeah that quote seems to speak much more about the level of trust in Boston Scott and Clement/UDFA rookies, than any major 1A/1B situation.

Can't spin it as an overall positive if Hyde (or insert any other journeyman type) signs, but IF they weren't planning on Sanders being the guy, then they would have addressed it far sooner.

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9 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

we're not talking frank gore or shady, neither of whom looked good last year. hyde actually looked really good at times. take a look at his highlights. maybe it was just a "something to prove" situation after getting dumped by the chiefs. either way, i'm thinking he's cutting into our sanders cake for a slice.

 

i think "destroy" is a little heavy, but i agree with the sentiment behind your post. i can see hyde cutting into some production, where sanders could have had outstanding RB1 numbers but instead lands at RB2. other games will be glorious.

 

as @ST. STEVEN and BMcP mention, i'm still riding this as "sanders at a discount." i mean really, if the eagles signed no one, we'd be looking at sanders' ADP climbing into ROUND 2. 

like your post implies, the discount is costly in production. 

 

Agree but how much of a discount are we talking about here? Instead of round 2, he moves into round 3?

 

That's not much of a discount IMHO.

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I love Sanders the player and would still gladly take him in fantasy this year but you're kidding yourself if you think this move is going to create a significant discount. He's being valued at around the 20th-25th player right now in PPR and if you look at the guys going immediately after him (Mike Evans, Fournette, Amari, Odell) I can't see this move definitively moving any of them ahead of him. He was already being taken in the same range as guys like Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Drake, Allen Robinson and I don't see much changing. I do think it's misguided to not acknowledge that this move would hurt his overall upside but it certainly won't have much effect on his bottomline.

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I like second year players, for the simple fact the first year is a blur. I am targeting this guy.

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