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Miles Sanders 2020 Outlook

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I think it circles back to people more question Pederson's penchant for RB rotation than the actual offense itself? And that is reasonable. The offense is tricky to measure, being that it suffered a large amount of injuries to the weaponry last year, but they have added a bunch more to the WR room and not for nothing, the defense--esp the secondary looks to be much improved as well...that does matter a touch for Sanders and his carry load.

I think ultimately Pederson has played RBBC out of necessity more than anything, here are the carry leaders with him as HC:

The leaders each year were Ryan Matthews in 2016 (155 carries and 168 total touches), LeGarrette Blount in 2017 (173 carries and 181 total touches), Josh Adams in 2018 (120 carries and 127 total touches) and Sanders in 2019 (179 carries and 229 total touches). Already, Sanders has been the best running back for Pederson in terms of workload -- and likely talent. Pederson's history of not committing to one running back is hard to ignore, but it also shows that he never had a player of Sanders' caliber for a full season. Pederson inherited Matthews in 2016, and the Eagles traded for Jay Ajayi from Miami in their Super Bowl season in 2017 as an upgrade over Blount.  After Ajayi suffered a torn ACL in 2018, Pederson was using multiple running backs (Adams, Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement and Sproles) just to get by.

Prior to the last year, and PHI using significant draft capital on Sanders, it was not exactly a who's who of RB excellence or anything. What they did not do--as far as signing next to nobody in FA for carry competition, and not using a pick on a RB, speak pretty clear to the fact that they are counting on Sanders to further his role, and here is a recent quote from the head coach on Sanders:

"Miles is our No. 1," Pederson said in a radio interview on Philadelphia's 94WIP in June. "He's the guy we drafted last year, and he had a tremendous rookie season. He's ready to carry the load."

I know many despise using late season breakthroughs and projections/extrapolations off of them, but it appears to be more static for young RBs then other positions (aka Higbee) and look and what he did when Howard washed out of offense (since departed and no real competition was added): From Weeks 12-16 -- he only played a half in Week 17 because of an injured ankle -- Sanders averaged 20.4 PPR points per game. He had four total touchdowns over that span, three games with at least 100 total yards and 23 catches on 27 targets. Maybe the best part of what Sanders did to close 2019 was his workload. From Weeks 11-16, Sanders averaged 19.8 touches per game and played more than 57 percent of the snaps in every outing. If you project his workload over that stretch for 16 games then he would have been at 317.3 touches for the season, including 250.7 carries. It would easily be the most work ever for a running back in the Doug Pederson era.

So yeah, I (and it seems many others early on) are drinking the kool-aid...and it is because of the intersection of everything mentioned above--talent/draft capital/role/opportunity and offensive potency...even a more non-sticky stat like 2020 difficulty of schedule or OVP (oppent rank versus position) shows Sanders/PHI having the 3rd easiest for RBs. There is just a lot to like here, even his floor given his pass catching prowess.

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@ST. STEVEN I can dig it! Appreciate the post. So where do you have Sanders ranked (assume half-ppr)/around where are you looking to get him? I'm constantly shuffling around Sanders, Mixon, Henry, Cook and Drake in that 2nd/3rd RB tier (Cook is there because of injury). 

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Wentz can't stay healthy, they no longer have magical Foles to bail them out, they don't have a single WR I trust for jack squat, the list goes on. To each their own, they might be fine and he'll be great, but I look at the whole thing and a little voice says "don't go there..."  :)

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59 minutes ago, bomont said:

Wentz can't stay healthy, they no longer have magical Foles to bail them out, they don't have a single WR I trust for jack squat, the list goes on. To each their own, they might be fine and he'll be great, but I look at the whole thing and a little voice says "don't go there..."  :)


they have a top 5 oline and their system targets RBs often and they have a couple great receiving and blocking TEs. If (big if) wentz can stay healthy sanders will play good. The RBBC thing scares me more but maybe @ST. STEVEN is right and its been a committee out of necessity not preferability.   

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2 hours ago, aapox said:

@ST. STEVEN I can dig it! Appreciate the post. So where do you have Sanders ranked (assume half-ppr)/around where are you looking to get him? I'm constantly shuffling around Sanders, Mixon, Henry, Cook and Drake in that 2nd/3rd RB tier (Cook is there because of injury). 

For me, I have been totally committed to going with RB/RB builds in Rd1 and 2. Totally good with him anywhere from 7th overall to that end of 1st/beginning of 2nd round swing. I am still drafting Cook ahead of him at this point, but it is very much a fluid daily situation. Henry, I have and will continue to take over him as well. I have Sanders in front of Mixon and Drake, but as you elude to, they are all right around the same area.

In a half ppr, my order would be:

Barkley/CMC/Zeke/Kamara/Henry/Cook/Sanders/Drake/Chubb/Mixon/Jones/Jacobs

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Posted (edited)

Hope yall are right. In a 12 teamer got sanders in the first and chubb on the turn. Worried about both but well see

Edited by Brh1219
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

For me, I have been totally committed to going with RB/RB builds in Rd1 and 2. Totally good with him anywhere from 7th overall to that end of 1st/beginning of 2nd round swing. I am still drafting Cook ahead of him at this point, but it is very much a fluid daily situation. Henry, I have and will continue to take over him as well. I have Sanders in front of Mixon and Drake, but as you elude to, they are all right around the same area.

In a half ppr, my order would be:

Barkley/CMC/Zeke/Kamara/Henry/Cook/Sanders/Drake/Chubb/Mixon/Jones/Jacobs

 

Finally a man who speaks my language, couldn’t have said it better myself. 

Edited by RunCMC
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I can dig all this but I have cook further down until his contract situation is resolved. I get you can grab mattison but with the injury concerns on top of it I’m a little off him this year. 

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17 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I think it circles back to people more question Pederson's penchant for RB rotation than the actual offense itself? And that is reasonable. The offense is tricky to measure, being that it suffered a large amount of injuries to the weaponry last year, but they have added a bunch more to the WR room and not for nothing, the defense--esp the secondary looks to be much improved as well...that does matter a touch for Sanders and his carry load.

I think ultimately Pederson has played RBBC out of necessity more than anything, here are the carry leaders with him as HC:

The leaders each year were Ryan Matthews in 2016 (155 carries and 168 total touches), LeGarrette Blount in 2017 (173 carries and 181 total touches), Josh Adams in 2018 (120 carries and 127 total touches) and Sanders in 2019 (179 carries and 229 total touches). Already, Sanders has been the best running back for Pederson in terms of workload -- and likely talent. Pederson's history of not committing to one running back is hard to ignore, but it also shows that he never had a player of Sanders' caliber for a full season. Pederson inherited Matthews in 2016, and the Eagles traded for Jay Ajayi from Miami in their Super Bowl season in 2017 as an upgrade over Blount.  After Ajayi suffered a torn ACL in 2018, Pederson was using multiple running backs (Adams, Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement and Sproles) just to get by.

Prior to the last year, and PHI using significant draft capital on Sanders, it was not exactly a who's who of RB excellence or anything. What they did not do--as far as signing next to nobody in FA for carry competition, and not using a pick on a RB, speak pretty clear to the fact that they are counting on Sanders to further his role, and here is a recent quote from the head coach on Sanders:

"Miles is our No. 1," Pederson said in a radio interview on Philadelphia's 94WIP in June. "He's the guy we drafted last year, and he had a tremendous rookie season. He's ready to carry the load."

I know many despise using late season breakthroughs and projections/extrapolations off of them, but it appears to be more static for young RBs then other positions (aka Higbee) and look and what he did when Howard washed out of offense (since departed and no real competition was added): From Weeks 12-16 -- he only played a half in Week 17 because of an injured ankle -- Sanders averaged 20.4 PPR points per game. He had four total touchdowns over that span, three games with at least 100 total yards and 23 catches on 27 targets. Maybe the best part of what Sanders did to close 2019 was his workload. From Weeks 11-16, Sanders averaged 19.8 touches per game and played more than 57 percent of the snaps in every outing. If you project his workload over that stretch for 16 games then he would have been at 317.3 touches for the season, including 250.7 carries. It would easily be the most work ever for a running back in the Doug Pederson era.

So yeah, I (and it seems many others early on) are drinking the kool-aid...and it is because of the intersection of everything mentioned above--talent/draft capital/role/opportunity and offensive potency...even a more non-sticky stat like 2020 difficulty of schedule or OVP (oppent rank versus position) shows Sanders/PHI having the 3rd easiest for RBs. There is just a lot to like here, even his floor given his pass catching prowess.


So when they sign a vet (Lamar Miller, Freeman), is your take on Sanders going to change? If not then you should keep him where you have him ranked now. 

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:


So when they sign a vet (Lamar Miller, Freeman), is your take on Sanders going to change? If not then you should keep him where you have him ranked now. 

No, I can't see any addition being more than insurance. They likely can not afford Freeman--who is wanting 4MM to play, despite his (former) agent telling him he was nuts. They were after Hyde, but weren't going much beyond the vet threshold. Miller makes a lot of sense for them imo, but this is clearly the Sanders and Scott show. I have been grabbing a ton of Scott shares too, I have been a big fan since the Saints drafted him and then foolishly tried to sneak him onto the PS...he has a very reasonable early ADP and could handle a 70% snap share if something happened to Sanders.

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Im in the ten spot out of ten considering Sanders. Would you guys select him over Jones or Drake?

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4 hours ago, NInsko said:

Im in the ten spot out of ten considering Sanders. Would you guys select him over Jones or Drake?


These guys and Jacobs are all jumbled together for me. I recently heard sanders was something like 46/47 (guesstimate) in PFF rating in between the tackles running and it seems like he’s been hyped all the way up to around his ceiling. That makes me lean Drake a little bit more, but there’s also no guarantee Drake gets as much workload as he did the second half of last year. I’d be good with either one at the 10 spot but not sure who I like more 😕 jones I have a little lower just because of the Dillon pick. 

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17 hours ago, NInsko said:

Im in the ten spot out of ten considering Sanders. Would you guys select him over Jones or Drake?

Kinda one in the same for me. I'd probably lean Drake more , and then toss a coin on sanders and Jones 

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14 hours ago, aapox said:


These guys and Jacobs are all jumbled together for me. I recently heard sanders was something like 46/47 (guesstimate) in PFF rating in between the tackles running and it seems like he’s been hyped all the way up to around his ceiling. That makes me lean Drake a little bit more, but there’s also no guarantee Drake gets as much workload as he did the second half of last year. I’d be good with either one at the 10 spot but not sure who I like more 😕 jones I have a little lower just because of the Dillon pick. 

Yes, this was posted in the PHI write-up yesterday, and has been cited somewhat in this thread--as far as him rating 44th out of 45 qualifying RBs in PFF's rushing grades last year. While I generally like a lot of the metrics that PFF comes up with, this one is highly subjective (as with O-line play in general). I think it stems much from early in the year where he was not planting and cutting up field, and that is something that @mocha4313 and I discussed a few pages ago here. He made some much needed alterations as the season progressed and got a lot better at hitting the initial hole that was opened.

FWIW Sanders was popped at the number 8 overall spot in my FFPC best ball last night, and that is roughly the range he has settled in at (give or take a few spots).

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7 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yes, this was posted in the PHI write-up yesterday, and has been cited somewhat in this thread--as far as him rating 44th out of 45 qualifying RBs in PFF's rushing grades last year. While I generally like a lot of the metrics that PFF comes up with, this one is highly subjective (as with O-line play in general). I think it stems much from early in the year where he was not planting and cutting up field, and that is something that @mocha4313 and I discussed a few pages ago here. He made some much needed alterations as the season progressed and got a lot better at hitting the initial hole that was opened.

FWIW Sanders was popped at the number 8 overall spot in my FFPC best ball last night, and that is roughly the range he has settled in at (give or take a few spots).

I agree he improved but I should clarify that I still don't see vision as a strength for Sanders

The defenses he was running through late in the year were bad ones with DLs overmatched against the Eagles OL (except maybe the Cowboys) and creating big holes

The improvement shouldn't be ignored and definitely gives him breakout potential but vision and some natural RB instincts are still a work in progress--to some extent at least

The explosiveness and improvement from early in the season is still easily noticeable but vision is something that is hard to completely correct

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2 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

Kinda one in the same for me. I'd probably lean Drake more , and then toss a coin on sanders and Jones 

Currently . Mixon and or Jacobs are available at 10 and my coin flip would be between Sanders and Drake. I like Sanders more than drake atm. If the Eags bring in anothet RB Drake moves up. Loooing like both will be 3 down backs this yr atm.

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On 7/26/2020 at 4:57 PM, NInsko said:

Currently . Mixon and or Jacobs are available at 10 and my coin flip would be between Sanders and Drake. I like Sanders more than drake atm. If the Eags bring in anothet RB Drake moves up. Loooing like both will be 3 down backs this yr atm.

agree, I am in the 10th spot in a 12 teamer and am seriously considering taking sanders at that spot if CEH is taken before my spot. I think he is primed to succeed this season in that offense and I think Pederson trusts him now and sees how they win when he is on the field more often than not. I feel like the back half of drafts isn't a bad spot to be this year

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On 7/25/2020 at 9:00 PM, NInsko said:

Im in the ten spot out of ten considering Sanders. Would you guys select him over Jones or Drake?

 

Sanders had more touches last season than Drake has had in his entire 4 year career. How is that even a question?

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Cmac had 1300 yfs in 2017 then his veteran teammate (jstewart) got out of the way and it was go time. I am not saying miles sanders is a lock for 1600 yfs and 12 tds but it would not surprise me either. He had 1300 yfs last year  and was really only fantasy relevant in like 6 games last year. Boston Scot will be his tevin coleman to his devonta freeman imo but i think there is a path for miles to be a top 8 fantasy rb with top 5 upside and boston scott to bea top 18 to 24 ppr rb. 

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6 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Sanders had more touches last season than Drake has had in his entire 4 year career. How is that even a question?


lol. At first I thought you were exaggerating but then I realized/presumed you meant in a season. I can see it if you really like Drake, I don’t think they’re that far apart, but that is a good point. Still, Drake absolutely balled during his time with Arizona and his time in Miami was under the Butthole so we can somewhat throw that out. Drake has always looked good with his touches, seems like a natural fit with Zona offense, and they brought in no real competition to him. You have to think Chase Edmonds will at least get mixed in though. Plus drake was a little streaky last year. 
 

all in all, I’m with you, I’m taking Sanders, but I wouldn’t argue if someone felt otherwise and really wanted Drake. It’s not like Sanders is a sure thing either. Another point in Sanders favor is that I believe he’ll be more important to the offense in Philly than drake is to Zona. I could see Sanders being more consistent than drake this year and that’s important from a top pick. 
 

what I do like and mentioned before is that both of these guys are lead backs on uptempo teams projected to be in the top 10 in scoring. Gotta like that. 

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Posted (edited)

I was WRONG above cmac had barely 1100 total yards in 2017. Still the point remains when cmac got rid of his jordan howard aka jonathan stewart then cmac went crazy in 2018 and 2019.

I do think boston scott will have an 8 to 10 touch a game role. The key here is corey clement does not get any action or any other rb and muddles this up.

Edited by isuckatdfs

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honestly Boston Scott does not worry me at all about Sanders production. The rapport he built with Carson at the end of last season is enough for me to vault him into the top 10-12 range in half and full ppr leagues 

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9 hours ago, aapox said:


lol. At first I thought you were exaggerating but then I realized/presumed you meant in a season. I can see it if you really like Drake, I don’t think they’re that far apart, but that is a good point. Still, Drake absolutely balled during his time with Arizona and his time in Miami was under the Butthole so we can somewhat throw that out. Drake has always looked good with his touches, seems like a natural fit with Zona offense, and they brought in no real competition to him. You have to think Chase Edmonds will at least get mixed in though. Plus drake was a little streaky last year. 
 

all in all, I’m with you, I’m taking Sanders, but I wouldn’t argue if someone felt otherwise and really wanted Drake. It’s not like Sanders is a sure thing either. Another point in Sanders favor is that I believe he’ll be more important to the offense in Philly than drake is to Zona. I could see Sanders being more consistent than drake this year and that’s important from a top pick. 
 

what I do like and mentioned before is that both of these guys are lead backs on uptempo teams projected to be in the top 10 in scoring. Gotta like that. 

 

I dont fault Drake for his time in Miami that was more on Gase. But we're still talking about a 26 year old RB who has never had a full workload in his career. Idk if I feel comfortable with taking him in the 1st round. Plus  Edmonds is a bigger threat to Drake than whatever washed up RB vet the Eagles might bring in to backup Sanders.

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Nothing big or anything, but a few insider notes: https://www.espn.com/blog/philadelphia-eagles/post/_/id/30016/eagles-miles-sanders-ready-for-expanded-role-in-second-season

Cliff-notes:

-They are not interested in paying anything above vet min on an insurance RB.

-They told him that he's the guy.

-He is working a ton on adding strength (like most every other player) feels like he left too many rush yards on the table last year and needs to break more tackles

Finally: "I just expect my role to be the guy that just helps the team win as much as possible," Sanders said. "They've been saying ... that I'm going to have a bigger role. That's just a blessing to me, honestly. I'm just excited to do whatever I can to help this team win, whether it's on the ground or in the air."

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On 7/25/2020 at 8:00 PM, NInsko said:

Im in the ten spot out of ten considering Sanders. Would you guys select him over Jones or Drake?

Sanders, Drake, then Jones for me.   I can see a case for switching Sanders and Drake but the inconsistency of Jones makes him an easy 3rd.

 

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