turner46

2020 Team Defenses Discussion

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So many good D's out there, does it really make a difference?  

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7 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

So many good D's out there, does it really make a difference?  

Dominant defenses do IMO. Not enough for me to spend a high pick on them but enough for me to pinpoint some under-the-radar options available in the last two rounds who can potentially be elite

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39 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Dominant defenses do IMO. Not enough for me to spend a high pick on them but enough for me to pinpoint some under-the-radar options available in the last two rounds who can potentially be elite

 

Well I certainly appreciate the Colts and Skins picks you suggested.

Skins seem like a odd-non chance to be elite however.  What's your rationale given the offense is going to be average at best?

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Well I certainly appreciate the Colts and Skins picks you suggested.

Skins seem like a odd-non chance to be elite however.  What's your rationale given the offense is going to be average at best?

 

Just to clarify that point I would never spend a high pick on the 49ers, Bears last year, Jaguars two years ago, etc--more productive to find the next one than pick the previous one and pass on potential breakouts.

For the Skins I love the front 7 mainly. Good mix of youth and veteran presence with a fearsome pass rush. From a fantasy perspective that's more important than anything else. Also respect the toughness and experience Rivera and Jack del Rio bring on that side--for the first time since rookie RG3 I think the franchise is going in the right direction.

If Haskins can simply take a tiny step forward next year and just not be terrible and Guice stays healthy for the ground and pound attack they want, they are my sleeper pick to be a dollar store version of the Niners last year and stumble their way into winning their weak division (nothing more than that though)

Team wise though I think they should have pulled the trigger on Tua and dumped Haskins--as good as Chase Young is

Edited by mocha4313
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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Just to clarify that point I would never spend a high pick on the 49ers, Bears last year, Jaguars two years ago, etc--more productive to find the next one than pick the previous one and pass on potential breakouts.

For the Skins I love the front 7 mainly. Good mix of youth and veteran presence with a fearsome pass rush. From a fantasy perspective that's more important than anything else. Also respect the toughness and experience Rivera and Jack del Rio bring on that side--for the first time since rookie RG3 I think the franchise is going in the right direction.

If Haskins can simply take a tiny step forward next year and just not be terrible and Guice stays healthy for the ground and pound attack they want, they are my sleeper pick to be a dollar store version of the Niners last year and stumble their way into winning their weak division (nothing more than that though)

Team wise though I think they should have pulled the trigger on Tua and dumped Haskins--as good as Chase Young is

 

Well thank goodness the Skins didn't do what you've suggested in taking Tua because I'm a Dolphins Fan LOL.

Haskins did get better as the season progressed.  I think the Skins are going to be good with him.

 

Back to defenses. Cowboys are considered an elite offense and Eagles have made improvement to their offense as well.  I know you're optimistic about the Skin's D but to call the division weak? Not so sure about that. 

 

Appreciate the Colts recommendation.  That's very high praise you're giving them to compare them to 9ers D.  I always wait and pick my D in the last couple of rounds and see why anyone would grab Colts before last two rounds.

Do you have another dark horse D just in case anyone else follows your guidance misses out on Colts? 

Edited by theSPANKER
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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Well thank goodness the Skins didn't do what you've suggested in taking Tua because I'm a Dolphins Fan LOL.

Haskins did get better as the season progressed.  I think the Skins are going to be good with him.

 

Back to defenses. Cowboys are considered an elite offense and Eagles have made improvement to their offense as well.  I know you're optimistic about the Skin's D but to call the division weak? Not so sure about that. 

 

Appreciate the Colts recommendation.  That's very high praise you're giving them to compare them to 9ers D.  I always wait and pick my D in the last couple of rounds and see why anyone would grab Colts before last two rounds.

Do you have another dark horse D just in case anyone else follows your guidance misses out on Colts? 

The weak division part was said in the context of the Redskins being a dark horse playoff team under the right circumstances. I consider the teams in that division weak--not necessarily the offenses. Actually I think all offenses besides the Redskins will be exciting. Wouldn't even shock me if the Giants pulled out the division at 9-7 or something

 

As for another pick, it is good to go in with a shortlist of non-elite (by ADP) options. I wanted the Bills last year in my dynasty league but got sniped and had to roll with the Browns until getting lucky with fliers on the 49ers and Steelers after the Minkah deal.

As for dark horse ones, I like the Bucs a lot talent wise. Solid front 7 with an elite run D and the sack king from last year AND the secondary showed improvement towards the end of last year. It seems trendy right now to hate on the Bucs and say they'll be average/bad, but the team looks extremely talented to me on both sides of the ball (except maybe O line).

For the sake of their defense though, Todd Bowles is a quality mind and great for fantasy purposes with his aggressiveness and focus on turnovers/sacks

It also can't hurt that they won't have Winston chucking them into awful field position.

Only issue is a tricky strength of schedule. Most breakout defenses usually do so in large part because of a soft schedule

Edited by mocha4313
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I disagree with the notion of waiting to the last 2 rounds to take a solid D. Top D's can be match-up winners. 2017 Jags, 2018 Bears, 2019 Pats/Ravens

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, ChiSox1390 said:

I disagree with the notion of waiting to the last 2 rounds to take a solid D. Top D's can be match-up winners. 2017 Jags, 2018 Bears, 2019 Pats/Ravens

Except in 2019 the Pats went in the last 2 rounds, while some people were spending high picks in the Bears.

And in 2018 the Bears went late while people were taking the Jags in the 10th round.

And in 2017... You get the point.

Edited by Boudewijn
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3 hours ago, ChiSox1390 said:

I disagree with the notion of waiting to the last 2 rounds to take a solid D. Top D's can be match-up winners. 2017 Jags, 2018 Bears, 2019 Pats/Ravens

 

3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Except in 2019 the Pats went in the last 2 rounds, while some people were spending high picks in the Bears.

And in 2018 the Bears went late while people were taking the Jags in the 10th round.

And in 2017... You get the point.

Yeah typically the top tier defenses rarely ever repeat.  

Here's a quick overview of the last few years:

2016: Eagles, Chiefs, Patriots, Vikings, Broncos, Cardinals, Dolphins, Ravens, Giants, Seahawks were the top 10 

2017: Jaguars, Ravens, Rams, Eagles, Chargers, Lions, Saints, Panthers, Seahawks, Bears - 3 teams stayed in the top 10 

2018: Bears, Rams, Texans, Vikings, Ravens, Redskins, Broncos, Patriots, Seahawks, Giants - 4 teams stayed in the top 10

2019: Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Vikings, Ravens, Rams, Chiefs, Titans, Jets, Bills - 4 teams stayed in the top 10

So 3-4 teams typically repeat a top 10 performance the following year?  Pretty low odds there.  I would hate to spend valuable draft capital on the top defense, and have them perform even at 10th overall.  I overpaid a bunch.  And if you just analyze top 5 repeats, the numbers become even smaller.  Top 3, even smaller.  

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What's the feeling on team defenses this year? It's often such a crapshoot as to which defenses are going to sit near the top of rankings at the season's end. The Bears were the top unit in 2018, leading everyone to make them the consensus preseason defense in 2019. And yet they finished way down the final rankings in my leagues. 

This season, it seems the almost consensus top 5 teams seem to be (in varying orders) New England, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Buffalo. The Rams, Chargers, Saints, and Bears all seem to be in the mix somewhere. 

When looking at those teams and considering the divisions in which they play, I'm inclined to think that New England and Buffalo might be two of the top considerations because they get to play each other twice, along with NYJ and Miami. As good as they are, SF has Arizona, LAR, and Seattle...Pittsburgh and Baltimore have each other plus Cincy and Cleveland teams with talent. 

And then there are those who simply don't draft a defense and stream match-ups each week. 

Any surprises out there this year...teams that may jump into the top 5, seemingly out of nowhere? 

Team D/ST isn't sexy, but I figure it's worth a thread. 

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4 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

What's the feeling on team defenses this year? It's often such a crapshoot as to which defenses are going to sit near the top of rankings at the season's end. The Bears were the top unit in 2018, leading everyone to make them the consensus preseason defense in 2019. And yet they finished way down the final rankings in my leagues. 

This season, it seems the almost consensus top 5 teams seem to be (in varying orders) New England, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Buffalo. The Rams, Chargers, Saints, and Bears all seem to be in the mix somewhere. 

When looking at those teams and considering the divisions in which they play, I'm inclined to think that New England and Buffalo might be two of the top considerations because they get to play each other twice, along with NYJ and Miami. As good as they are, SF has Arizona, LAR, and Seattle...Pittsburgh and Baltimore have each other plus Cincy and Cleveland teams with talent. 

And then there are those who simply don't draft a defense and stream match-ups each week. 

Any surprises out there this year...teams that may jump into the top 5, seemingly out of nowhere? 

Team D/ST isn't sexy, but I figure it's worth a thread. 

Copied from a previous thread on this:

Colts defense is going to be this year's 49ers-style pickup: So much young talent in the secondary and a disruptive force up front now in Buckner that helps all those guys feast. and they get a cake schedule

Redskins will be a diet version of them if you miss out on the Colts--emerging talent in the front 7 (most important part of a defense for fantasy purposes) with tough, experienced defensive minds now in Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio coaching them in a trash division; if they had a real QB, I'd count them as a dark horse to win the division as a mini version of the 49ers last year

Patriots are going to regress hard. Now they face a real schedule without a real QB

 

Others: I like the Bucs too. Their schedule is hard though which makes them a tough breakout pick, but they have some beasts up front and a secondary that improved as the year went on--all with a DC in Bowles known for aggressiveness (which means sacks and turnovers). And now they don't have Mr. Turnover putting them on the field in their own red zone every other possession

 

Ravens, 49ers, Steelers would be my top 3 overall

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1 minute ago, mocha4313 said:

Copied from a previous thread on this:

Colts defense is going to be this year's 49ers-style pickup: So much young talent in the secondary and a disruptive force up front now in Buckner that helps all those guys feast. and they get a cake schedule

Redskins will be a diet version of them if you miss out on the Colts--emerging talent in the front 7 (most important part of a defense for fantasy purposes) with tough, experienced defensive minds now in Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio coaching them in a trash division; if they had a real QB, I'd count them as a dark horse to win the division as a mini version of the 49ers last year

Patriots are going to regress hard. Now they face a real schedule without a real QB

 

Others: I like the Bucs too. Their schedule is hard though which makes them a tough breakout pick, but they have some beasts up front and a secondary that improved as the year went on--all with a DC in Bowles known for aggressiveness (which means sacks and turnovers). And now they don't have Mr. Turnover putting them on the field in their own red zone every other possession

 

Ravens, 49ers, Steelers would be my top 3 overall

 

Oh my bad. I searched for "defense" and "d/st", and both came up empty. I was unaware that there was already a thread on this. Would you mind linking it for me? 

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I like the Chargers alot, outside week 2 vs the Chiefs and maybe 4 and 5 @ TB and @ NO the rest of the schedule looks great, if your league is deep enough draft Zona for free in the last round who get Washington, Carolina and the NY Jets in weeks 2, 4 and 5 and they added Simmons in the first round to join Chandler Jones, Patrick Peterson and Budda Baker. If your league is shallow just worry about it week 2.

 

As for the Chargers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram rushing the passer. Casey Hayward and Chris Harris Jr at CB both groups should really help each other immensely then add a elite talent in Derwin James plus a 1st round MLB and this defense on paper looks elite.

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Only a fool would pay more than minimum for Pat's D if that. Losing Brady is massive and Bills and Jets are on the rise. Colts are interesting and could be a sleeper pick. Steelers, Ravens and 49ers lead the way IMO.

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1 hour ago, turner46 said:

 

 

 

Thank you, turner! I guess I should have searched for "defenses" with an "s", too. Lol. 

 

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ravens defense will be the defense to own weeks 14 thru 16. I own some shares in auctions but i never take them in the 8th thru 10th round in drafts.

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I like looking outside the box for team defenses. 

 

The Titans have been an up and coming defense since Mike Vrabel took over, I like them again this year.

 

If Dan Quinn is gonna keep his job in ATL his defense has to become top 10 again and they have the talent to do it.

 

Miami spent a lot of money on defense and had some quality pie es before that. I'd be worried about continuity in their first year together but they are loaded on defense.

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I go back and forth on defenses. 

Seems like every year I target a top defense, say Chicago in 2019 or Jackonsville in some recent year, they fall flat the next year.  And a team like New England comes out of nowhere.  So I'm hesitant to invest any more than a double digit pick in a defense.  Let somebody else chase the Pats this year with a 7th or 8th rounder.

That said, I do like Buffalo.  But I think they'll be one of the top 5 defenses selected, so I'm probably going to miss on them.  They've got a late bye week too, so the advantage is that they'll be essentially set and forget assuming that they perform as expected.

I like Indy as mentioned up above too. Buckner is going to be a force up front, Leonard one of the top LBs in the game, and hopefully Xavier Rhodes will regain his form with a change of scenery.  Not a lot of people will hopefully be targeting them.

I'm typically a streamer.  Only problem is that there's usually at least 5 others in a 12/14 team league that will be streaming.  Most people don't spend more than $1 or 2 FAAB on a weekly streamer.  Occasionally if the team has a good upcoming two or three week schedule, you'll see people go up to $5 or 6, more as the season progresses.  But it adds up and eats into your FAAB budget.  The key is to look ahead and grab the defense you want a week or two ahead of time.  But that requires using two spots for defense, which is hard to do.

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

I'm typically a streamer.  Only problem is that there's usually at least 5 others in a 12/14 team league that will be streaming.  Most people don't spend more than $1 or 2 FAAB on a weekly streamer.  Occasionally if the team has a good upcoming two or three week schedule, you'll see people go up to $5 or 6, more as the season progresses.  But it adds up and eats into your FAAB budget.  The key is to look ahead and grab the defense you want a week or two ahead of time.  But that requires using two spots for defense, which is hard to do.

I think the FAAB aspect of streaming is important and not mentioned very often - as you say if nearly half of your league is also streaming then you're going to need a good portion of your budget just to cover streaming defenses.

 

personally I kinda like to take a shot on a couple defenses later in drafts and try to hit on that surprise defense that emerges as a top-5 DST unexpectedly.  Either that or week 1 pounce on the DST that stood out unexpectedly in week one!

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

I go back and forth on defenses. 

Seems like every year I target a top defense, say Chicago in 2019 or Jackonsville in some recent year, they fall flat the next year.  And a team like New England comes out of nowhere.  So I'm hesitant to invest any more than a double digit pick in a defense.  Let somebody else chase the Pats this year with a 7th or 8th rounder.

That said, I do like Buffalo.  But I think they'll be one of the top 5 defenses selected, so I'm probably going to miss on them.  They've got a late bye week too, so the advantage is that they'll be essentially set and forget assuming that they perform as expected.

I like Indy as mentioned up above too. Buckner is going to be a force up front, Leonard one of the top LBs in the game, and hopefully Xavier Rhodes will regain his form with a change of scenery.  Not a lot of people will hopefully be targeting them.

I'm typically a streamer.  Only problem is that there's usually at least 5 others in a 12/14 team league that will be streaming.  Most people don't spend more than $1 or 2 FAAB on a weekly streamer.  Occasionally if the team has a good upcoming two or three week schedule, you'll see people go up to $5 or 6, more as the season progresses.  But it adds up and eats into your FAAB budget.  The key is to look ahead and grab the defense you want a week or two ahead of time.  But that requires using two spots for defense, which is hard to do.


Doing some research on my league, defenses have never been taken before the 11th round of our 17 round league. It has usually been one taken then, another taken the next round, then maybe another. 

Personally, I’d rather be able to find a defense I can just plug in every week instead of streaming, and tbh, I’m leaning more and more toward either Buffalo or Indy as defenses that can be had in the 13th or later without having to be one of the first 3-4 off the board. The Saints could surprise, but the division is tougher. I figure some combo of SF, NE, Pittsburgh, Baltimore will be the first four taken. 

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Even this close to the season it's nearly impossible to nail down which defenses will be good and which schedules will be favorable because so much changes from one season to the next. But just taking a gander at their schedules, as of now the Colts do seem to have an easier road than the Bills. But again, things can change dramatically. 

Taking a look at the 49ers schedule...wow, nice schedule early on...@ NYJ and @ NYG in weeks 2 and 3. Then Philly and Miami fly across the country to SF in weeks 4 and 5. They travel to New England in week 7. Late in the year they host the Bills for MNF in week 13, host Washington in week 14, travel to Dallas in week 15 and travel to Arizona in week 16. Those last two would probably be pretty tough fantasy playoff matchups.  

That's really not a bad schedule for the 49ers defense...maybe they should be the top unit early on...at least a top 3 unit. 

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19 hours ago, turner46 said:

I like the Chargers alot, outside week 2 vs the Chiefs and maybe 4 and 5 @ TB and @ NO the rest of the schedule looks great, if your league is deep enough draft Zona for free in the last round who get Washington, Carolina and the NY Jets in weeks 2, 4 and 5 and they added Simmons in the first round to join Chandler Jones, Patrick Peterson and Budda Baker. If your league is shallow just worry about it week 2.

 

As for the Chargers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram rushing the passer. Casey Hayward and Chris Harris Jr at CB both groups should really help each other immensely then add a elite talent in Derwin James plus a 1st round MLB and this defense on paper looks elite.

Chargers offense will kill the Chargers defense IMO. That team will be this year's surprise dumpster fire if I had to guess

And tbh I think all their players besides Bosa, Derwin and Murray are a bit overrated

 

I said Ravens, 49ers, Steelers but I'll throw in Buffalo into that elite tier and Indy to round out the top 5

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I know Defenses are unpredictable year-to-year, the top D's tend to change, but I'm trying to figure it out if there's really any feasible way that Baltimore does NOT end up as a top 3 D this year.

 

They lost DB Brandon Carr and DL Michael Pierce, but added Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe, as well as using their 1st round pick on LB Patrick Queen.  I'd say pretty good improvements right there - Campbell is still a beast and Wolfe is a very good run stuffer.

 

So how can they be worse?  Maybe as the offenses in division should be much better than last year (Big Ben back, Burrow better than QB;s Cincy started last year, and Cleveland can't be worse on offense than last year).

 

Thoughts?  I know you don't want to reach on a D but is Baltimore a can't miss D?

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2 minutes ago, dschddny said:

I know Defenses are unpredictable year-to-year, the top D's tend to change, but I'm trying to figure it out if there's really any feasible way that Baltimore does NOT end up as a top 3 D this year.

 

They lost DB Brandon Carr and DL Michael Pierce, but added Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe, as well as using their 1st round pick on LB Patrick Queen.  I'd say pretty good improvements right there - Campbell is still a beast and Wolfe is a very good run stuffer.

 

So how can they be worse?  Maybe as the offenses in division should be much better than last year (Big Ben back, Burrow better than QB;s Cincy started last year, and Cleveland can't be worse on offense than last year).

 

Thoughts?  I know you don't want to reach on a D but is Baltimore a can't miss D?

I don't really believe in a "can't miss D."  But I do like Baltimore's chances of being good for the reasons you mention.  Based on ADP they seem to be about the 3rd D/ST off the board at around pick 140.  This makes me think in certain rooms they'll be too rich for my blood, but in others I could see myself going for it.

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