Fort4242

Bryan Edwards 2020 Outlook

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Drafted 3.17 by the Las Vegas Raiders.  They added Ruggs in Round 1, and also Lynn Bowden one pick before Edwards.  A broken foot limited his pre-draft workout.  

One thing that stood out to me in a big way was his breakout age.  Not sure if others look at the data on PlayerProfiler - but Edwards has a breakout age of 17.8 which is one of the youngest ages I've ever seen and ranks in the 100% percentile.

Here's an article on how breakout age works:

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-breakout-age-using-pff-grades-to-identify-potential-breakout-rookie-fantasy-receivers

So not much production in college and no pre-draft workout to go off of, but an extremely high break out age, what are people's thoughts on Edwards?  Great size at 6'3'' 212 and looks to be extremely physical.  

 

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I was at the South Carolina-Georgia game last season and the guy can play. You could tell he was public enemy number 1 for the UGA defense. He's got the size, consistent production, and has made some incredible grabs. He's not gonna be Ruggs but has decent speed and acceleration as well. He just needs to polish up his game a bit, particularly his route running for the NFL and eliminating the occasional drops. Besides that, he has solid potential and lacks any major flaws.

 

IMO, he had a good shot to go somewhere in the 2nd round if he didn't have the foot injury and if the WR class wasn't as deep as it was this year.

I'm not sure about his fantasy or on the field production for this upcoming season though, but I wouldn't expect anything big especially when Waller, Ruggs, Tyrell Williams, and Renfrow are gonna get their targets.

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2 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

The source is this:

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2018/04/17/wide-receiver-breakout-age-by-draft-round/

That looks like something I need to look into :) Certainly it seems weird that he takes draft round as a potential origin, rather than correcting for it. 

Thanks for providing that link!

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3 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Drafted 3.17 by the Las Vegas Raiders.  They added Ruggs in Round 1, and also Lynn Bowden one pick before Edwards.  A broken foot limited his pre-draft workout.  

One thing that stood out to me in a big way was his breakout age.  Not sure if others look at the data on PlayerProfiler - but Edwards has a breakout age of 17.8 which is one of the youngest ages I've ever seen and ranks in the 100% percentile.

Here's an article on how breakout age works:

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-breakout-age-using-pff-grades-to-identify-potential-breakout-rookie-fantasy-receivers

So not much production in college and no pre-draft workout to go off of, but an extremely high break out age, what are people's thoughts on Edwards?  Great size at 6'3'' 212 and looks to be extremely physical.  

 

It’s tough to say - he’s a non-early-declare with no testing and a poor YPT and career market share of yards - but he really did dominate that offense beginning as a freshman with stand-out measurables.  I’m not particularly high on him mainly due to landing spot - too many mouths to feed ahead of him in the pecking order in Vegas.  But I’d definitely say he’s one to monitor closely - maybe moreso for 2021 purposes.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

It’s tough to say - he’s a non-early-declare with no testing and a poor YPT and career market share of yards - but he really did dominate that offense beginning as a freshman with stand-out measurables.  I’m not particularly high on him mainly due to landing spot - too many mouths to feed ahead of him in the pecking order in Vegas.  But I’d definitely say he’s one to monitor closely - maybe moreso for 2021 purposes.

Yeah I like him in dynasty - I virtually see no relevance possibly this year for re-draft.  Williams will save them $11m if he's cut next off-season which makes sense.  So in 2021 we might be looking at Edwards, Ruggs and Renfrow as the starters in 3 WR sets, and since Renfrow is very much a slot guy, I imagine it will be Ruggs and Edwards starting in 2 WR sets.  

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I think Edwards is a good not great receiver. Reminds me a lot of Corey Davis.

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17 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

I think Edwards is a good not great receiver. Reminds me a lot of Corey Davis.


Wow, that’s messed up. 

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He was my draft crush this year. Sucks I have to root against him now but still went into my rookie draft knowing I had to land him one way or another.

Corey Davis isn't the worst comp but I think his separation skills are more refined.

Seems to be a slept on day 2 WR pick most years who flies under the radar and defies expectations (Terry, Kupp, Godwin, Gallup, Lockett)

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1 hour ago, mocha4313 said:

Seems to be a slept on day 2 WR pick

Or did they?

https://www.cover1.net/nfl-draft-injury-impact-south-carolina-wr-bryan-edwards/

Quote

During his time in Columbia, South Carolina, wide receiver Bryan Edwards set program benchmarks for consecutive games with a catch (48), career receptions (234), and career yards (3,045), and was third overall for receiving touchdowns (22). Edwards eclipsed program greats such as Sidney Rice and Alshon Jeffery on his way to the top of the leader boards. Despite all the successes in college, there are worries about whether Edwards will be able to stay healthy at the next level. A history of lower-body injuries could derail a promising NFL career in the making. Below is a season-by-season recap.

The article is a loooooong list of injuries. I'm generally not a fan of the term "injury-prone" but holy smoke, this guy has so many stitches they should just install some zippers in his legs.

High school
- torn meniscus in his right knee
Freshman season
- hamstring strain 
- sports hernia or core muscle injury
Sophomore season
- shoulder injury in spring practices
Junior season
- ankle sprain 
Senior season
- minor ankle injury 
- left knee injury, knee scope to trim out the meniscus 
- fractured his foot 
The last 2 prevented him from attending the Senior Bowl and the Combine. I can totally see why teams would be a bit careful to sign him up, especially on the first 2 days. He could be a really nice darth throw in dynasty, but not with a high pick.

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Posted (edited)

He punishes defenders with stiff arms, runs like Terrell Owens bullying people. I like his film but don't think Carr can support 3 fantasy relevant WRs on a weekly basis.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats

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Redraft you can’t really bother unless you want to take him instead of a kicker in the final round. I don’t see much if any of a year one impact in Grudens offense.

Dynasty I’m really high on him, reminds me of Godwin while on the field so why not for a late 2nd early third.

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Raiders QB Derek Carr said rookie Bryan Edwards is “someone where there’s just a trust.”

“Bryan is a violent route runner and that’s a good thing,” Carr said. “He reminds me of Davante [Adams]. Someone where there’s just a trust. I can throw it up one-on-one on those 50/50 balls. He’s a guy that can not only use his physicality in the route, but also when he’s in the air.” Carr played with Adams his final two years at Fresno State. It’s not a bad comp for Edwards, who wins with size and RAC ability. Edwards is healthy after a pre-Combine foot injury and repping with the first-team offense. The Edwards hype continues to run full steam — there’s talk he could start ahead of Henry Ruggs in two wide sets.

 

some pretty encouraging words from the qb 

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I own a bunch of him in draftkings bestball so he will not be a thing for that reason. Sometimes I see him go as high as round 17 in draftkings bestball.

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45 minutes ago, isuckatdfs said:

I own a bunch of him in draftkings bestball so he will not be a thing for that reason. Sometimes I see him go as high as round 17 in draftkings bestball.

He's going to start getting some more love closer to the start of the season with all the talk coming out of camp. Everyone was so busy fawning over Ruggs's speed (deservedly so) after the draft that they basically ignored a player that had a first round talent profile that slipped because of a broken foot during the combine. Given Carr's ability to throw a deep ball, I took him in all my dynasties at the end of the draft/FA pool. Gruden doesn't seem shy about playing his rookies if they catch on fast enough, and I don't think Williams is even remotely in the same talent level as Edwards.

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I do not think tyrell williams is a slouch and tyrell will have a handful of useful fantasy games also imo. I own edwards and tyrell together on some bestball teams. 

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He’s going to be the Raiders #1 WR by next year, over Ruggs. 
 

To most this is a laughable statement but this dude is the truth. Just give him time

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100% dynasty ownership. I was expecting this year to be more of a “redshirt” year before he beasts next year, barring injury to Ruggs or Williams. But maybe he forces his way in earlier!

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Reports out of the Raiders camp make this guy seem like the next big thing at WR

 

I targeted him in dynasty but didn't expect anything this year until now

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On 8/17/2020 at 5:12 PM, mocha4313 said:

Reports out of the Raiders camp make this guy seem like the next big thing at WR

 

I targeted him in dynasty but didn't expect anything this year until now

 

I still don't expect much from him, and I drafted him late today. Every year, there are players hyped in camp who never turn out to be much once the bullets start flying. Jacobs will be more involved in the passing game...Waller is going to get his targets...a healthy Williams will start outside and get his targets. Then you have Renfrow and Ruggs. Tbh, I just don't see enough targets for Edwards. I hope I'm wrong, and I drafted him because I believe in the talent. But I just don't see a path to useful targets barring a couple of injuries. 

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I’m gonna play devil’s advocate for a moment...

What if Gruden decides Edwards has enough to his game to make Williams expendable? Does Williams just get cut & the Raiders go with the youth at every offensive skill position to let them have their growing pains? Waller in his 3rd year, Jacobs & Renfrow in their 2nd, Ruggs & Edwards as rookies. That would leave Carr to either: 

1) become the leader he should be as QB, or...

2) be the sacrificial lamb while the kids learn on-the-job, then someone else comes in to lead them all to the next level

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that as they all could develop serious chemistry as they mature together. Edwards has all the physical skills to be a WR1 if he can stay healthy

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, lvsaint429 said:

I’m gonna play devil’s advocate for a moment...

What if Gruden decides Edwards has enough to his game to make Williams expendable? Does Williams just get cut & the Raiders go with the youth at every offensive skill position to let them have their growing pains? Waller in his 3rd year, Jacobs & Renfrow in their 2nd, Ruggs & Edwards as rookies. That would leave Carr to either: 

1) become the leader he should be as QB, or...

2) be the sacrificial lamb while the kids learn on-the-job, then someone else comes in to lead them all to the next level

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that as they all could develop serious chemistry as they mature together. Edwards has all the physical skills to be a WR1 if he can stay healthy

 

Doubtful. Williams is the 9 route deep threat guy to clear out room underneath for Ruggs, Renfrow, Waller, Edwards, etc. underneath. They'll probably get rid of him next year though.

Edited by MJJ28

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44 minutes ago, lvsaint429 said:

I’m gonna play devil’s advocate for a moment...

What if Gruden decides Edwards has enough to his game to make Williams expendable? Does Williams just get cut & the Raiders go with the youth at every offensive skill position to let them have their growing pains? Waller in his 3rd year, Jacobs & Renfrow in their 2nd, Ruggs & Edwards as rookies. That would leave Carr to either: 

1) become the leader he should be as QB, or...

2) be the sacrificial lamb while the kids learn on-the-job, then someone else comes in to lead them all to the next level

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that as they all could develop serious chemistry as they mature together. Edwards has all the physical skills to be a WR1 if he can stay healthy

Reading this the first thing I thought of...

 

Bye bye Carr. Jameis Winston to Vegas. YES PLEASE. 

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11 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Doubtful. Williams is the 9 route deep threat guy to clear out room underneath for Ruggs, Renfrow, Waller, Edwards, etc. underneath. They'll probably get rid of him next year though.

I kinda thought Ruggs (4.27 40 at the combine) was drafted to be the deep threat & keep those safeties back. Waller & Renfrow have proven themselves as reliable chain movers. It would be a waste to not take advantage of his speed on the deeper routes

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Loved him coming into the league and glad to see these positive blurbs, but idk why anyone would draft him this year. Will be on my radar for next year once he’s better, isn’t getting boned as a rookie with no OTAs, coming off a lower body injury, and just in general a crowded wr room

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