LarryDavid

A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook

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Well, I came in here just hoping to get a vibe on how this group was feeling about AJ for 2020.. and I surprising found that this young, pretty hyped dude doesn’t even have a 2020 thread yet. So here we are...

 

After going 52 catches for 1052 yards and 8 TD in 2019, he had a strong case for offensive rookie of the year. Coming off of a year where he busted a bunch of long catches and runs, I can see there being some regression built in.. but I just love the player (favorite WR in last year draft) so much I don’t think I’m personally even adding that in. I think he is really just that good. 
 

The fact that the Titans brought back Tanny and didn’t pick up Corey Davis 5th year option for 2021.. I think the Titans realize Brown is the #1 and will be elevated even more this season as they build around him and let Corey Davis hit the streets next offseason. 

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3 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:

Well, I came in here just hoping to get a vibe on how this group was feeling about AJ for 2020.. and I surprising found that this young, pretty hyped dude doesn’t even have a 2020 thread yet. So here we are...

 

After going 52 catches for 1052 yards and 8 TD in 2019, he had a strong case for offensive rookie of the year. Coming off of a year where he busted a bunch of long catches and runs, I can see there being some regression built in.. but I just love the player (favorite WR in last year draft) so much I don’t think I’m personally even adding that in. I think he is really just that good. 
 

The fact that the Titans brought back Tanny and didn’t pick up Corey Davis 5th year option for 2021.. I think the Titans realize Brown is the #1 and will be elevated even more this season as they build around him and let Corey Davis hit the streets next offseason. 

My worst move last year was keeping Metcalf and Brown of Ravens and cutting AJ Brown. 

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I'm torn between "stud WR about to cement himself" and "great player who struggles in a low volume offense".  They threw it less than any team in the league besides Baltimore, and got to the final four with that attack plan.   Its a credit to Brown that he turned 84 targets into that strong stat line, but a little less luck on TD's and big plays, without a significant target increase, and he's tough to trust.     

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

My worst move last year was keeping Metcalf and Brown of Ravens and cutting AJ Brown. 

 

I just looked at his game logs and its hard to blame you- he'd pop a decent game now and then but it took until 11/24 for AJ to start his run.   Tons of duds before that. 

NTM a 35-32 game vs KC in week 10 in which he caught one pass.   

Edited by BrianM

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3 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

I just looked at his game logs and its hard to blame you- he'd pop a decent game now and then but it took until 11/24 for AJ to start his run.   Tons of duds before that. 

NTM a 35-32 game vs KC in week 10 in which he caught one pass.   

NTM he turned back into a non-factor during the playoffs after wrecking a few atrocious defenses late in the season.

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I'm getting to keep him for the cheap, so I don't mind getting a free space at WR.  But I don't think I'd want to rely on him as my fantasy team's WR1.  Don't anticipate the passing volume in this offense to go up, so that's obviously a damper on his outlook.  What saved him last year was his amazing efficiency in terms of YPC and TDs scored.  Most will say there is regression to the mean.  That would be a buzzkill for his fantasy value.

That said, he's got great athleticism, and all it takes his one view of highlights where he takes a simple slant to the house and showcasing his power and speed to get you enthused about him.  I'm glad to have him on my team for this upcoming season, but I'll surely want another high volume guy to help stabilize the position.

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Not buying any WR in an offense that projects to be as low volume/poor as the Titans, regardless of the talent. At his price there will be talented players in good offenses, so it just won’t be worth the risk/headache..

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, CooL said:

I'm getting to keep him for the cheap, so I don't mind getting a free space at WR.  But I don't think I'd want to rely on him as my fantasy team's WR1.  Don't anticipate the passing volume in this offense to go up, so that's obviously a damper on his outlook.  What saved him last year was his amazing efficiency in terms of YPC and TDs scored.  Most will say there is regression to the mean.  That would be a buzzkill for his fantasy value.

That said, he's got great athleticism, and all it takes his one view of highlights where he takes a simple slant to the house and showcasing his power and speed to get you enthused about him.  I'm glad to have him on my team for this upcoming season, but I'll surely want another high volume guy to help stabilize the position.


I’m in the same situation keeper wise (cheap) and I wouldn’t be rolling with him as my WR1, I definitely think he has that in his range of outcomes next year for sure. 

I totally understand the hesitation to buy into any pass catcher in that Titans power run game offense, but I also think that might just be Browns best fit. AJ has an all around game that will enable him to continue growing in that offense. He is a strong short to intermediate route runner with running back after the catch skills. The way he got open and made huge plays was when he was out on an island with a DB and just routed him 1 on 1 and didn’t get tackled. That power run game require the D to go with 8 man boxes and get ideal matchups and run after the catch opportunities. 

He was also just a rookie this season so I expect improvement. Go back and watch all of the elite guys rookie seasons, they look like ballers but so much refined now as older players. That just made me watch AJ film recently thinking he is just getting better too. Tannehill didn’t start for that team until week 6 and I expect those guys chemistry to increase. The Titans also know now that AJ is their WR1 and declined Corey David 5th year option (smartly), they should be scheming up more ways to get the ball in Browns hands.

I think all of the above leave Browns floor pretty high because he should easily surpass the 84 targets he had last season.. and upside for top 7 type season because the offense gets more catered to him, chemistry grows with Tanney and he continues to run like a mad man after the catch. 

Edited by LarryDavid
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Brown with his adp is the mid 4th round in 10 team and roughly end of the 3rd for 12 team. He has a high ceiling with a low low floor. If he is one of your top players you're going to win or when you lose your going to lose. In his range I would be more comfortable with Sutton, Thielen, or Woods. 

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Overvalued as hell. He was good last year as a 15th rounder obviously. His ADP right now is outrageous and you're banking on a step forward from a streaky player in a low passing volume offense. Avoid. I mean he is insanely talented, but too expensive.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

Overvalued as hell. He was good last year as a 15th rounder obviously. His ADP right now is outrageous and you're banking on a step forward from a streaky player in a low passing volume offense. Avoid. I mean he is insanely talented, but too expensive.

 

“He was good last year as a 15th rounder” understatement of the year. No duh a guy that finished around top 20 would be value there. That’s the advantage of getting a rookie in an offense no one wanted to touch. You get the same discount even now. If he was on any type of top 10 passing offense his helium/hype and ADP would be insane. 
 

The guy proved he’s a dog and he was one of the most explosive run after the catch players in the NFL.. literally only 2nd to Austin Eckler. I know his big plays and run after the catch screams regression. But people just thinking Brown won’t continue to improve.. from his rookie season! And that the Titans won’t figure out the way to get him the ball more (only has 84 targets last season) to me are crazy. 
 

Titans aren’t going to be pass happy. But he’s the #1 alpha dog there and can take anything to the house. Mid 4th is not bad at all. I think next season we are talking about him in the 2nd round. He’s a lock for 100 targets easy and will continue his running back like ways after the catch. 

Edited by LarryDavid

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11 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:

 

“He was good last year as a 15th rounder” understatement of the year. No duh a guy that finished around top 20 would be value there. That’s the advantage of getting a rookie in an offense no one wanted to touch. You get the same discount even now. If he was on any type of top 10 passing offense his helium/hype and ADP would be insane. 
 

The guy proved he’s a dog and he was one of the most explosive run after the catch players in the NFL.. literally only 2nd to Austin Eckler. I know his big plays and run after the catch screams regression. But people just thinking Brown won’t continue to improve.. from his rookie season! And that the Titans won’t figure out the way to get him the ball more (only has 84 targets last season) to me are crazy. 
 

Titans aren’t going to be pass happy. But he’s the #1 alpha dog there and can take anything to the house. Mid 4th is not bad at all. I think next season we are talking about him in the 2nd round. He’s a lock for 100 targets easy and will continue his running back like ways after the catch. 

It’s a bit too early to be putting too much stock in ADP.  Like most, I love Brown as a player but I’m not in love with his situation.  His targets will probably exceed 100 this season - in fact, barring injury, I’d be shocked if they didn’t.  I’d currently view him as more of a low-end WR2 than someone likely to finish top-7.

Your point about his YAC ability is well taken - he was elite among starting WRs with 8.9 YAC/R - right above Deebo (and below Hardman).  I don’t expect that would dip too much lower even with added volume.  I’m more concerned about added defensive attention this season - they didn’t really do anything to address the issue of how to free him from being draped in coverage this off-season (apart from hoping against hope that Davis finally takes a step forward).

 

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AJ Brown is going to be a superstar.  

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9 hours ago, BMcP said:

It’s a bit too early to be putting too much stock in ADP.  Like most, I love Brown as a player but I’m not in love with his situation.  His targets will probably exceed 100 this season - in fact, barring injury, I’d be shocked if they didn’t.  I’d currently view him as more of a low-end WR2 than someone likely to finish top-7.

Your point about his YAC ability is well taken - he was elite among starting WRs with 8.9 YAC/R - right above Deebo (and below Hardman).  I don’t expect that would dip too much lower even with added volume.  I’m more concerned about added defensive attention this season - they didn’t really do anything to address the issue of how to free him from being draped in coverage this off-season (apart from hoping against hope that Davis finally takes a step forward).

 


I don’t disagree with any point you made. I’ve read a ton of your stuff on here so I know you know your stuff. I love that there is so much info out there that we can pick apart every thing like offensive style, targets, yac and everything that helps us make education decisions come draft day... 

The problem I sometime have with these forums is there is no development taken into consideration, especially when we are talking about year two type guys. Could there be things that point to regression.. sure. But I think going into year two there is far more upside than downside. Like do people go look at Julio Jones stat line or film from his rookie season?..

I’ll help you out: he had like 950 and 8 TDs on 95 targets and missed a game or so. You can tell he was a beast as a rookie.. But real point is his game has gotten so much better since then and the Falcons saw what they had in him and started to really build around him. The Titans are going to do the same damn thing. They won’t ever attempt top 12 type passing attempts with Tanny at the helm it’s not like they don’t have some elite defense either so they are going to have to throw the rock. 

I’m not being super bias to AJ because I have him on a team.. I just like a ton of people on here watch a ton of football and film and this dude is beast. He can run short, intermediate and deep routes.. elite after the catch.. was a top recruit in HS.. produced in the SEC at a young age.. did it as a rookie with only 84 targets.. literally every point people like to pick at.  I would bet a lot of money on his career as a whole that he’s a top 12 type receiver for the wide majority.. that includes the next step next season. 

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Posted (edited)
Just now, LarryDavid said:


I don’t disagree with any point you made. I’ve read a ton of your stuff on here so I know you know your stuff. I love that there is so much info out there that we can pick apart every thing like offensive style, targets, yac and everything that helps us make education decisions come draft day... 

The problem I sometime have with these forums is there is no development taken into consideration, especially when we are talking about year two type guys. Could there be things that point to regression.. sure. But I think going into year two there is far more upside than downside. Like do people go look at Julio Jones stat line or film from his rookie season?..

I’ll help you out: he had like 950 and 8 TDs on 95 targets and missed a game or so. You can tell he was a beast as a rookie.. But real point is his game has gotten so much better since then and the Falcons saw what they had in him and started to really build around him. The Titans are going to do the same damn thing. They won’t ever attempt top 12 type passing attempts with Tanny at the helm it’s not like they don’t have some elite defense either so they are going to have to throw the rock. 

I’m not being super bias to AJ because I have him on a team.. I just like a ton of people on here watch a ton of football and film and this dude is beast. He can run short, intermediate and deep routes.. elite after the catch.. was a top recruit in HS.. produced in the SEC at a young age.. did it as a rookie with only 84 targets.. literally every point people like to pick at.  I would bet a lot of money on his career as a whole that he’s a top 12 type receiver for the wide majority.. that includes the next step next season. 

 

I dont think people deny that he's talented. He's being ranked right around his ceiling. I dont think I want to invest a top 40 pick in a guy with a high bust rate especially when WR is the deepest its been in years.

I dont get the Julio comparison. Atlanta has a bad defense for pretty much all of Julio's career which ofc leads to more volume. Plus Matt Ryan is significantly better than any Titans QB.

Edited by Evincar

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17 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

I dont think people deny that he's talented. He's being ranked right around his ceiling. I dont think I want to invest a top 40 pick in a guy with a high bust rate especially when WR is the deepest its been in years.

I dont get the Julio comparison. Atlanta has a bad defense for pretty much all of Julio's career which ofc leads to more volume. Plus Matt Ryan is significantly better than any Titans QB.


Yeah. That’s exactly where I disagree. I don’t think there is a “high bust rate” for a great player that is being molded into the #1 playmaker. The WR group as a whole is fine. But top end WR is not the deepest it’s been in years. AJ to me is right at the 11-14 spot depending on format. Which again makes me have no issue with where he is currently going. 
 

I wasn’t comparing him to Julio.. besides the fact that AJ loves that dude and is the reason he wears 11. Google it if you like but it’s also a reason I love this guy. He has the mindset and wants to be great. He said after he spoke to Julio when he balled against the Falcons, the conversation was about balling consistently for a long time. Brown also saw Julio extension and said the Titans are going to have to “pay” him like that one day. I love that ****.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/clutchpoints.com/titans-rookie-a-j-brown-receives-message-falcons-wr-julio-jones-after-impressive-performance/amp/

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001112370/article/breesthomas-ryanjones-among-nfls-top-10-qbwr-pairings%3fnetworkId=4595&site=.news&zone=story&zoneUrl=url%3Dstory&zoneKeys=s1%3Dstory&env=&pageKeyValues=prtnr%3Dthe-brandt-report%3Bplyr%3Dmatthew_ryan%3Bplyr%3Dthomas_brady%3Bplyr%3Ddrew_brees&p.ct=The%2bBrandt%2bReport&p.adsm=false&p.tcm=%23000&p.bgc1m=%23EAEAEA&sr=amp

Anyway, nothing I said was comparing the two. People look only at numbers of a YEAR ONE ROOKIE and talk like guys aren’t going to make improvements from year 1 to year 2 and they are strictly tied to the perceived offensive system they play in and QB. I just said people to stop being some fantasy minded and realize players and offenses develop. Especially when you have a great WR.

 

 

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Just now, LarryDavid said:

Anyway, nothing I said was comparing the two. People look only at numbers of a YEAR ONE ROOKIE and talk like guys aren’t going to make improvements from year 1 to year 2 and they are strictly tied to the perceived offensive system they play in and QB. I just said people to stop being some fantasy minded and realize players and offenses develop. Especially when you have a great WR.

 

Who said Brown wasnt going to improve? Thats pretty much expected of all young players. To get better with more experience. Brown isnt going to surprise opposing defenses this season so he'll have to make improvements. 

The Titans have four straight winning seasons, and even with three different OCs and two different HCs they have maintained a run first philosophy. The only time Tannehill has supported a WR1 was Landry, a slot WR that was force fed a ridiculous amount of targets.

 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, LarryDavid said:

The problem I sometime have with these forums is there is no development taken into consideration, especially when we are talking about year two type guys. Could there be things that point to regression.. sure. But I think going into year two there is far more upside than downside. Like do people go look at Julio Jones stat line or film from his rookie season?..

I’ll help you out: he had like 950 and 8 TDs on 95 targets and missed a game or so. You can tell he was a beast as a rookie.. 

I sure hope that people did look at Julio's stat line from his 2011 rookie season, when they were preparing for 2012 fantasy drafts.

Julio missed 3 full regular season games (more than a game or so) in his rookie season..and still put up excellent numbers. Plus there was another game after he returned from injury, where he was either re-injured and left the game, or was an injured decoy (he had zero targets). Here's a look at the PPR fantasy points for both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown in their rookie seasons...

image.png.578f4a0b6940f8cd5877f0663284f8e0.png

Julio busted in 4 of 14 games.
A.J. busted in 10 of 19 games. It would've been 11 of 19, but he rescued Week 16 with a 49 yard rushing TD (he was held to 1 catch for 34 yards). 

Even if you weren't meaning to compare the two after bringing Julio's name up, the fact is that Julio was clearly far superior to Brown as a rookie. As you said, Julio was a beast. Of course there can be improvements for Brown, as he heads to his second season. He's an exciting player and it'll be interesting to see how he develops.

But just as we have to sometimes be wary of late-season fantasy wonders at RB, the same is true for WR. Brown finished as the #10 WR in Standard and #21 WR in PPR. But through Week 11, he was #49 in Standard and #55 in PPR. Through Week 13 (end of the fantasy regular season), he was #33 in Standard and #40 in PPR.  

Edited by Corleone
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Posted (edited)

duplicate post

Edited by Corleone

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56 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I sure hope that people did look at Julio's stat line from his 2011 rookie season, when they were preparing for 2012 fantasy drafts.

Julio missed 3 full regular season games (more than a game or so) in his rookie season..and still put up excellent numbers. Plus there was another game after he returned from injury, where he was either re-injured and left the game, or was an injured decoy (he had zero targets). Here's a look at the PPR fantasy points for both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown in their rookie seasons...

image.png.578f4a0b6940f8cd5877f0663284f8e0.png

Julio busted in 4 of 14 games.
A.J. busted in 10 of 19 games. It would've been 11 of 19, but he rescued Week 16 with a 49 yard rushing TD (he was held to 1 catch for 34 yards). 

Even if you weren't meaning to compare the two after bringing Julio's name up, the fact is that Julio was clearly far superior to Brown as a rookie. As you said, Julio was a beast. Of course there can be improvements for Brown, as he heads to his second season. He's an exciting player and it'll be interesting to see how he develops.

But just as we have to sometimes be wary of late-season fantasy wonders at RB, the same is true for WR. Brown finished as the #10 WR in Standard and #21 WR in PPR. But through Week 11, he was #49 in Standard and #55 in PPR. Through Week 13 (end of the fantasy regular season), he was #33 in Standard and #40 in PPR.  


Wow you people really don’t read. Never once said I was comparing Julio. Thanks for the super long nonsense.

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5 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:


Wow you people really don’t read. Never once said I was comparing Julio. Thanks for the super long nonsense.

Wow indeed...

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3 hours ago, LarryDavid said:


Wow you people really don’t read. Never once said I was comparing Julio. Thanks for the super long nonsense.

 

You were comparing their rookie seasons and the fact that Atlanta was going build around Julio because they saw how special he was. Which is odd given that the Falcons pretty much mortgaged two draft classes to move up and draft him, so they already thought that before he even played a game. Im sure the Titans think Brown is special too but they wont be changing their offensive philosophy because of him, and Tannehill isnt Matt Ryan.

He is ranked around WR15 right now and he's probably the only WR in that range with the lowest amount of targets. He's a risky pick for sure.

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15 hours ago, LarryDavid said:


Yeah. That’s exactly where I disagree. I don’t think there is a “high bust rate” for a great player that is being molded into the #1 playmaker. The WR group as a whole is fine. But top end WR is not the deepest it’s been in years. AJ to me is right at the 11-14 spot depending on format. Which again makes me have no issue with where he is currently going. 
 

I wasn’t comparing him to Julio.. besides the fact that AJ loves that dude and is the reason he wears 11. Google it if you like but it’s also a reason I love this guy. He has the mindset and wants to be great. He said after he spoke to Julio when he balled against the Falcons, the conversation was about balling consistently for a long time. Brown also saw Julio extension and said the Titans are going to have to “pay” him like that one day. I love that ****.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/clutchpoints.com/titans-rookie-a-j-brown-receives-message-falcons-wr-julio-jones-after-impressive-performance/amp/

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001112370/article/breesthomas-ryanjones-among-nfls-top-10-qbwr-pairings%3fnetworkId=4595&site=.news&zone=story&zoneUrl=url%3Dstory&zoneKeys=s1%3Dstory&env=&pageKeyValues=prtnr%3Dthe-brandt-report%3Bplyr%3Dmatthew_ryan%3Bplyr%3Dthomas_brady%3Bplyr%3Ddrew_brees&p.ct=The%2bBrandt%2bReport&p.adsm=false&p.tcm=%23000&p.bgc1m=%23EAEAEA&sr=amp

Anyway, nothing I said was comparing the two. People look only at numbers of a YEAR ONE ROOKIE and talk like guys aren’t going to make improvements from year 1 to year 2 and they are strictly tied to the perceived offensive system they play in and QB. I just said people to stop being some fantasy minded and realize players and offenses develop. Especially when you have a great WR.

 

 

 

Love it, he's a dog.  On 3rd and 4, he wont be stopped.  I don't care who's throwing the rock in Tennessee, I want shares even at a steep price this year before he becomes a round 1-2 pick

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45 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

You were comparing their rookie seasons and the fact that Atlanta was going build around Julio because they saw how special he was. Which is odd given that the Falcons pretty much mortgaged two draft classes to move up and draft him, so they already thought that before he even played a game. Im sure the Titans think Brown is special too but they wont be changing their offensive philosophy because of him, and Tannehill isnt Matt Ryan.

He is ranked around WR15 right now and he's probably the only WR in that range with the lowest amount of targets. He's a risky pick for sure.

 

No. Again, this is where reading part really comes in handy. I never once compared AJ & Julio; nor did I compare their rookie seasons at all. I also didn't compare systems or QBs. 

All I did is encourage people to go back and watch the elite WRs when they were rookies in the league and see how much they have developed as pros now, and how the offenses and smart coaching staffs figure out how to get the elite players like Brown the ball more. The only name I dropped in that scenario was Julio.. my mistake in even naming another guy and not comparing them because I guess that is the only thing that people can weirdly stick to in AJ Brown forum. But the only point I make on Julio was how had 950 yards on 95 targets as a rookie and that was before he skyrocketed and DEVELOPED more as a WR. That was the whole point. You "pointing" out that his target were low from LAST SEASON is exactly part of that issue. The dude was a rookie, it was Tanny first year in the system and he didn't even start until week 6.

The Titans aren't changing their philosophy dramatically this season because they don't need to.. it worked them last season. But I guarantee it evolves off the league bottom pass attempts with Brown/Tanny a full year in. As you noted, again, he had low targets... and he was damn successful with those. So he won't need much of a bump then to top his 2019 numbers. 

 

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2 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:

 

No. Again, this is where reading part really comes in handy. I never once compared AJ & Julio; nor did I compare their rookie seasons at all. I also didn't compare systems or QBs. 

All I did is encourage people to go back and watch the elite WRs when they were rookies in the league and see how much they have developed as pros now, and how the offenses and smart coaching staffs figure out how to get the elite players like Brown the ball more. The only name I dropped in that scenario was Julio.. my mistake in even naming another guy and not comparing them because I guess that is the only thing that people can weirdly stick to in AJ Brown forum. But the only point I make on Julio was how had 950 yards on 95 targets as a rookie and that was before he skyrocketed and DEVELOPED more as a WR. That was the whole point. You "pointing" out that his target were low from LAST SEASON is exactly part of that issue. The dude was a rookie, it was Tanny first year in the system and he didn't even start until week 6.

The Titans aren't changing their philosophy dramatically this season because they don't need to.. it worked them last season. But I guarantee it evolves off the league bottom pass attempts with Brown/Tanny a full year in. As you noted, again, he had low targets... and he was damn successful with those. So he won't need much of a bump then to top his 2019 numbers. 

 

 

That seems like wishful thinking. I fully expect Tannehill to regress and Brown's ridiculous YPC to also come down. I just think he's more likely to return WR2 value which makes him a bad pick at where he is being ranked.

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